Cold: Snow/Ice - Sat 17th March Onward - READ MOD NOTE POST #1

duffman13

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

in a nutshell - how are we going to be affected in Sligo ?

You're not, it might be bit nippy though

M.T. Cranium

I think the 12z models Thursday should tell the story on this, but so far evidence for significant snow potential is limited. I expect a few weak streamers and localized 3 to 5 cm type falls if the "major models" are correct so far. The main story will be cold nights and chilly days.

However, the door is not closed on heavier snow possibilities, if the high is a little slower in asserting itself and we get more gradient combined with lower pressures overall this weekend.

Will certainly be watching closely as 00z guidance rolls out in a few hours. The east coast North American storm has pretty much done its thing now so the models will have a complete handle on that by now. (It dropped 40 to 70 cm of snow throughout New England into New Brunswick and southern Quebec and has weakened considerably on Wednesday, now drifting north towards Labrador).

An Ri rua

tikkamark wrote:

Is Monday not a bank holiday?

gabeeg wrote:

Of course it is.

gabeeg wrote:

pffft

Not if you're driving a snow plough?! Or delivering bread. Or carrots..

gabeeg

You must be talking about farm banks.

I wouldn't know, I'm from Dublin

hatrickpatrick

Meteociel down for anyone else? "Connection Refused"?

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO 00z



Potentially heavy convective snow showers getting well inland from Saturday evening and overnight. Risk of some drifting of snow at times.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO is a direct hit at +72 hours! pretty low pressure and the upper deep cold pool right over Ireland = Instability. GFS very similar to the 18z. I know which I'd rather have on board at this timeframe... :cool:

Kermit.de.frog

Snow showers may arrive in time for Dublin parade on the UKMO.

BLIZZARD7

ICON pretty good too @ +72hrs



And the 00z Arpege... Well now this could end up quite a snowy weekend if things keep trending this way, 850s a touch higher here however (Still -10c or lower at times)

Kermit.de.frog

Some of these runs are verging on Orange warning for eastern parts Saturday night and Sunday. Get under a convective shower train at this time of year and quite a bit of snow will fall in a short period of time and it will quickly accumulate.

Increased risk of thunderstorm activity too.

Drifting is also a real risk given the powdery nature of the precipitation. Visibility could fall quickly in heavy snow showers.

I predict "interesting" journeys home Saturday night for party goers.

Kermit.de.frog

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think the 12z models Thursday should tell the story on this, but so far evidence for significant snow potential is limited. I expect a few weak streamers and localized 3 to 5 cm type falls if the "major models" are correct so far. The main story will be cold nights and chilly days.

However, the door is not closed on heavier snow possibilities, if the high is a little slower in asserting itself and we get more gradient combined with lower pressures overall this weekend.

Will certainly be watching closely as 00z guidance rolls out in a few hours. The east coast North American storm has pretty much done its thing now so the models will have a complete handle on that by now. (It dropped 40 to 70 cm of snow throughout New England into New Brunswick and southern Quebec and has weakened considerably on Wednesday, now drifting north towards Labrador).

M.T. Cranium

I believe that the models have shifted in the 00z suite towards greater chances for snow in the southeast. As I said in my post, if the high doesn't push in quickly and overwhelm the country with stable cold air, then sure, doors are wide open for snow. Uppers are not quite as spectacular as last time but certainly not marginal.

It probably shifts the meter from "20% possible" to "60% possible" for outbreaks of heavy snow.

We all know how these models can flip-flop with just enough time for that one last turn towards a drier outcome, so will be making the forecast conditional but fairly strong wording required. I guess we are stuck with met.ie warning levels for our threads but this is definitely a level one at the very least and has level two possible for south Leinster and possibly Dublin-Meath. Hoping we avoid a code red this time, the people don't need another harsh wintry blast (if level two is not that although probably it is by definition, so I would say another disruptive to damaging blast is what they don't need or deserve as far as I know from this distance).

Kermit.de.frog

Currently i'd go with 10 - 15 cms generally in the eastern half of the country overnight Saturday but be under a continuous stream of showers and it could be more quite quickly. Some drifting could also occur particularly where the precipitation is partly snow grains or ice.

My own opinion is it is orange territory warning for coastal counties in particular.

UsedToWait

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Currently i'd go with 10 - 15 cms generally in the eastern half of the country overnight Saturday..

My own opinion is it is orange territory warning for coastal counties in particular.

All eastern counties, or with a bias to the south Kermit?

(p.s. love your work )

Kermit.de.frog

UsedToWait wrote: »

All eastern counties, or with a bias to the south Kermit?

(p.s. love your work )

Thanks!

All eastern counties from Louth to Wexford.:cool: Kildare, Meath, Westmeath, Carlow could do pretty well out of this.

Thewife

[
What’s the chances of snow for Waterford please 🙈 break to me gently now


quote="Kermit.de.frog;106443241"]Thanks!

All eastern counties from Louth to Wexford.:cool: Kildare, Meath, Westmeath, Carlow could do pretty well out of this.[/quote]

beefburrito

Will we avoid it in Clare Kermit ?

Rebelbrowser

Thewife wrote: »

[
What’s the chances of snow for Waterford please 🙈 break to me gently now


quote="Kermit.de.frog;106443241"]Thanks!

All eastern counties from Louth to Wexford.:cool: Kildare, Meath, Westmeath, Carlow could do pretty well out of this.

[/quote]

High. 60% chance of some snow I would think

Thewife

[
I am a REAL snow lover , always wishing for snow but I’m still getting over the shock of 2 weeks ago , we had ALOT of snow and because I live very rural we had to wait nearly a week for diggers to come and make tracks on the little country roads before we had any chance of getting out ... I’ll get the bread in so ))
quote="Rebelbrowser;106443379"][/quote]

High. 60% chance of some snow I would think[/quote]

JCX BXC

Lads....the quotesss.....fix the quotes!

leahyl

Yaay Cork might escape so...phew...want a bit of sun now lol

ch750536

leahyl wrote: »

Yaay Cork might escape so...phew...want a bit of sun now lol

Cork sun forecast, havin a laugh right.

Mullaghteelin

Streams of mostly light showers is all I would expect personally.
There'll be very cold air at the surface, but the 500hPa temperatures will be a much higher, and thicknesses underwhelming, compared to the extraordinarily low values we had on the Wednesday before Emma.

The daytime convection also tends to fire up more overland, and is less impressive over the sea, at this time of year.
Of course, there'll be snow about, but its probably best not to ramp too much or we'll trigger more panic buying and craziness.

RobertKK

A local road here in Kilkenny was only cleared of snow yesterday that still had three feet of snow from the drifts of the last episode.
The saying is the snow is waiting for more and I think Kilkenny and particularly the high ground will suffer again.
It has been gone for days in and around Kilkenny city but can still be seen around the surrounding high ground.

arctictree

This one would be devastating for us as we now have week old lambs out in the fields. Manged to keep them all in the last time but we now have too many to keep inside. Hope it downgrades!

jdcv94

Would these streamers be coming in the same direction as the ones pre Emma? I swear to any higher deity if North Wexford misses this "Eastern counties" snow again because of that bloody Anglesey shadow I'm going to personally go and move that island to the Pacific.

pad199207

jdcv94 wrote: »

Would these streamers be coming in the same direction as the ones pre Emma? I swear to any higher deity if North Wexford misses this "Eastern counties" snow again because of that bloody Anglesey shadow I'm going to personally go and move that island to the Pacific.

If the streamers are akin to the ones pre Emma I may get my shovel out again here

pistolpetes11

JCX BXC wrote: »

Lads....the quotesss.....fix the quotes!

It’s a boards issue

Rooy

Met Eireann forecast still fairly conservative in terms of snow potential - " Very cold Saturday night, with mainly clear skies and some snow showers in the east and southeast. Amounts are looking small at this stage.
Sunday: ... Some sleet or snow showers will occur again, mainly in eastern areas. A few flurries are possible elsewhere."

Will be interesting to see if that upgrades too in the next 24 hours.

listermint

jdcv94 wrote: »

Would these streamers be coming in the same direction as the ones pre Emma? I swear to any higher deity if North Wexford misses this "Eastern counties" snow again because of that bloody Anglesey shadow I'm going to personally go and move that island to the Pacific.

Didnt miss any of the snow at the tail end, North Wexford and south wicklow got a pasting