The 8th Amendment Part 2 - Mod Warning in OP

Zubeneschamali

dudara wrote: »

The latest Irish Times poll is out.

63:37 stripping out the Don't Knows.

47:28:20:5 Yes:No:Don't Know:Won't Vote

Interestingly the drop in Yes (from 56 in January) has not meant a rise in No which also dropped by a point, so a lot of those Don't Knows may be leaning Yes.

No will need every single Don't know to break their way to win. I still reckon Yes will win 55:45.

RobertKK

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

63:37 stripping out the Don't Knows.

47:28:20:5 Yes:No:Don't Know:Won't Vote

Interestingly the drop in Yes (from 56 in January) has not meant a rise in No which also dropped by a point, so a lot of those Don't Knows may be leaning Yes.

No will need every single Don't know to break their way to win. I still reckon Yes will win 55:45.

History shows that don’t no’s mostly go for the status quo if they don’t know rather than vote for change.

gctest50

RobertKK wrote: »

History shows that don’t no’s mostly go for the status quo if they don’t know rather than vote for change.

Have you any source for that ?


If you don't know, you should be more like the Saints

Saints once did abortions

"Medieval biographies of multiple Irish Catholic saints, including beloved Brigid of Kildare, reverently record abortions among their miracles,"



https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/saints-once-did-abortions-it-was-a-lesser-sin-than-oral-sex-1.3466881

Zubeneschamali

RobertKK wrote: »

History shows that don’t no’s mostly go for the status quo if they don’t know rather than vote for change.

That's why I think it will be 55:45 and not the headline 63:37.

RobertKK

gctest50 wrote: »

Have you any source for that ?

It is from observing referendums for long time at this stage.
Googled and found this from RedC research:

https://redcresearch.ie/brexit-polls-lessons-ireland/

It says almost all undecided in the marriage referendum ended up voting no.

baylah17

Great news from the Poll
Looks like the lies and graphic distortions of the No side have come back to haunt them!
The Yes campaign had barely hit first gear when the poll was taken!

January

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I had the first canvassers of the campaign yesterday evening - gave me a Together for Yes flyer.

I gave them a thumbs up and said I voted against it last time and will again, and got smiles and thanks.

After they were gone I thought to ask how it was going, but too late. This would not be a very pro-choice constituency, I hope they get on OK.

What area? You can pm if you like and I can try find out what the results were for you

RobertKK

baylah17 wrote: »

Great news from the Poll
Looks like the lies and graphic distortions of the No side have come back to haunt them!
The Yes campaign had barely hit first gear when the poll was taken!

A 9% fall in yes is great news says a yes supporter...
Near all those undecided are leaning on the no side if you read the link to history of undecided in Ireland.

dav3

RobertKK wrote: »

A 9% fall in yes is great news says a yes supporter...
Near all those undecided are leaning on the no side if you read the link to history of undecided in Ireland.

Or you could read the article posted above where the poll was taken instead of fumbling for irrelevant links. It only took me a minute to read.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-times-poll-public-favour-repeal-of-eighth-despite-slip-in-support-1.3467503?mode=amp

While there may be some concern among repeal campaigners at the tightening of the race, and especially the slippage in their support below the 50 per cent mark, the strength of the repeal position among voters is revealed by a series of additional questions in today’s poll.

Asked about the strength of their conviction for their position, almost 80 per cent of declared repeal voters said that they would “absolutely never” change their mind, or were “extremely unlikely” to do so. Commitment to their declared position was even higher among retain voters.

Among voters who said they were undecided at this stage, twice as many said they were “leaning towards” repeal (30 per cent of undecideds) as were leaning towards keeping the amendment (15 per cent).

NuMarvel

RobertKK wrote: »

It is from observing referendums for long time at this stage.
Googled and found this from RedC research:

https://redcresearch.ie/brexit-polls-lessons-ireland/

It says almost all undecided in the marriage referendum ended up voting no.

So your source for claiming "History shows that don’t no’s mostly go for the status quo if they don’t know rather than vote for change" is an analysis of a single referendum that you looked for after you made the claim. Riiiight... :rolleyes:

nice_guy80

turnout might not be that high

so you can discount a lot of don't knows who won't bother to vote

amdublin

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I had the first canvassers of the campaign yesterday evening - gave me a Together for Yes flyer.

I gave them a thumbs up and said I voted against it last time and will again, and got smiles and thanks.

After they were gone I thought to ask how it was going, but too late. This would not be a very pro-choice constituency, I hope they get on OK.

It's a funny situation right?...voting against it meant a no vote in 83 but means a YES to Repeal in 2018. Do I have that right?!

Yes would be interesting to hear how they were getting in.

I'm out canvassing tomorrow and will post here how it went.

baylah17

NuMarvel wrote: »

So your source for claiming "History shows that don’t no’s mostly go for the status quo if they don’t know rather than vote for change" is an analysis of a single referendum that you looked for after you made the claim. Riiiight... :rolleyes:

Did you really expect anything better?
At least it wasnt accompanied by a picture of a Barbie Doll and a claim that this is what you will be murdering!

ELM327

RobertKK wrote: »

You have the patience of an angry bull.

I don't expect an apology as I don't think you are that type when wrong to admit, as I answered another poster while you were posting that crap.

Let me post it again: The former chairman of the royal college of obstetricians and Gynaecology at the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland, said no Irish doctor would ever fail to intervene to save the life of a pregnant woman - even if that risked the life of her unborn child.

A well known pro life institute.
Disregard.

And as for the rest of your post, you've disappointed me.
What does the head of BPPAS and the other youtube people think of it?

Zerbini Blewitt

A polling/betting enthusiast, Keith Mills (who is strongly pro-life btw) has said of this poll:-

“No question now, "Yes" has it in the bag unless the other polls show a very different result.”

“If #savethe8th aren't over 30% at this stage in the campaign, then it's virtually impossible to see a path to victory”.
(He had been flagging this weekends polls and that ‘no’ had to be over 30% for a while now)

“Hard to see much movement from now on.”

AnneFrank

No matter what side your on, it's such a hard thing to have to think about deeply and vote upon

seachto7

AnneFrank wrote: »

No matter what side your on, it's such a hard thing to have to think about deeply and vote upon

It’s not hard to think about really: give women a choice what to do with their own bodies.
There is nothing to think about or debate.
People will still have abortions whether it’s a yes or a no result.

AnneFrank

I respectfully disagree, ending a 12 week babies life is very hard for me personally to vote on

baylah17

AnneFrank wrote: »

No matter what side your on, it's such a hard thing to have to think about deeply and vote upon

No

Saving women lives and recognizing their right to choose will not be hard for me to vote on at all.
I shall have a wistful smile on my lips as i tick yes, and I will think of Louise and Savita and the other victims of the evil 8th

baylah17

AnneFrank wrote: »

I respectfully disagree, ending a 12 week babies life is very hard for me personally to vote on

There is no such thing as a twelve week baby, unless you mean 12 weeks after birth , in which case that would murder!

Triceratops Ballet

I think if the poll says anything it's go and talk to your grandparents/older relatives if they're still living explain why this is so important to generations to come, answer any and all questions they have openly and honestly, don't get angry frustrated and hyperbolic, just be frank tell them why a yes is important for you personally

seachto7

AnneFrank wrote: »

I respectfully disagree, ending a 12 week babies life is very hard for me personally to vote on

Well if it’s a yes win how will it affect your life ?

seachto7

Triceratops Ballet wrote: »

I think if the poll says anything it's go and talk to your grandparents/older relatives if they're still living explain why this is so important to generations to come, answer any and all questions they have openly and honestly, don't get angry frustrated and hyperbolic, just be frank tell them why a yes is important for you personally

Why do you assume they will vote no

Hooks Golf Handicap

Both sides spinning the latest poll I see.

One poster knocked it on the head when they questioned whether all that 63% would come out to vote.
The 37% will have a higher amount of older voters & we know they will all be out in force.

The Yes campaign need a push for the youth vote along the lines of the Equality Referendum despite it being a much harder sell.

If I had to call it now I'd go along with 55:45 to repeal.

seachto7

Remember 38% votes against ssm

AnneFrank

baylah17 wrote: »

There is no such thing as a twelve week baby, unless you mean 12 weeks after birth , in which case that would murder!

I know many women who would be deeply offended by this post, having miscarried around that mark

ELM327

AnneFrank wrote: »

I respectfully disagree, ending a 12 week babies life is very hard for me personally to vote on

No babies. 12 week old babies have birth certificates

This is about fetus, a jelly like clump of cells.


Of course you know that these foetuses are being terminated already, by Irish women, daily. 9-10 per day.
Just with the additional complications of paying to travel, time off work, risk of blood clots on the way home. No support network and they can't get aftercare. So you know... the 8th causes active harm to Irish women. And that for me is not a palatable option.

ELM327

AnneFrank wrote: »

I know many women who would be deeply offended by this post, having miscarried around that mark

SO don't put up any doctored photos of foetuses then

amdublin

AnneFrank wrote: »

I respectfully disagree, ending a 12 week babies life is very hard for me personally to vote on

Are you on Facebook? There is a page on it called In Her Shoes where women tell their stories. You might find it useful to read women's experiences of abortion and maternity healthcare in Ireland. Its eye opening. And heart breaking.

Anyone who is undecided should take a look imo

AtomicHorror

AnneFrank wrote: »

No matter what side your on, it's such a hard thing to have to think about deeply and vote upon

It can certainly be, initially. Once you understand the medical and biological reality of it, it becomes much easier to think about the unborn, but much harder to think about the mother. That was my experience at any rate.

For most, it is still not going to be a pleasant topic to think of, but the balance of the concern definitely swings firmly in favor of the mother.