Werewolf XXV - Fr Ted

Drumpot

beakerjoe wrote: »

Arent the village always statisitcally unlikely to hit a villager the first night though

How do you work that out?

What have we got? Potentially 6 baddies? 25 in village. Straight forward multiply the baddies by 4 to get the percentage of baddies and percentage chance of hitting them.

I can be corrected on the amounts of baddies (somebody said they missed a convert, I don’t know how this is confirmed) which means that there is less then 24% chance of us hitting a baddy?!

tritium

The_Valeyard wrote: »

First of all,

Thank you for the question.

You're a great guy

1) I got into politics to make this island a better place. Far better than Rugged Island.

2) i think i can bring a lot to the island including more mass

You’re something of an unknown quantity to the voters right now Vale. What’s your view on unknowns? Why should we trust them, especially during an epidemic of the Hairy hand?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

They dont always have a no lynch option though

Misread your post

Also if we have 2 bullets a day whats the rush to start offing people

The_Valeyard

tritium wrote: »

You’re something of an unknown quantity to the voters right now Vale. What’s your view on unknowns? Why should we trust them, especially during an epidemic of the Hairy hand?

This isnt the first time we've had hairy hand. Nor will it be the last.

I believe we have known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Just have to get on with mass regardless.

grumpylumpy

Deleted User wrote: »

Also if we have 2 bullets a day whats the rush to start offing people

I suppose the chance of one wolf getting their hands on a gun, as opposed to the power of the village swaying a lynch

grumpylumpy

grumpylumpy wrote: »

I suppose the chance of one wolf getting their hands on a gun, as opposed to the power of the village swaying a lynch

If someone goes mad with the gun well we can lynch them and hopefully swap 2 NRV for a wolf

I know it seems like there is loads of people now but saving a villager now could win us the game at the end.

The seer is important in this game as they will have a list of baddies or goodies who at the end of the game can pass the gun around and keep it out of the wolves hands.

If all else fails lynch qb as she is a wolf

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

Also if we have 2 bullets a day whats the rush to start offing people

grumpylumpy wrote: »

I suppose the chance of one wolf getting their hands on a gun, as opposed to the power of the village swaying a lynch

But do we not get results of Mayor vote? This means we know who is mayor. They can tell us who they chose to be vig? This means they can tell us who has bullets. Most importantly we can get the person with the bullets to confirm reciept of bullets? This keeps the wolves on a short leash and means if a wolf is mayor and they make another wolf the vig, they can’t lie about who they give the bullets to?

Kolido

grumpylumpy wrote: »

I suppose the chance of one wolf getting their hands on a gun, as opposed to the power of the village swaying a lynch

We have limited control over who gets the gun but we have control over not lynching tonight

beakerjoe

Deleted User wrote: »

They dont always have a no lynch option though

I didnt know that. The more I know in all that jazz

grumpylumpy

Drumpot wrote: »

But do we not get results of Mayor vote? This means we know who is mayor. They can tell us who they chose to be vig? This means they can tell us who has bullets. Most importantly we can get the person with the bullets to confirm reciept of bullets? This keeps the wolves on a short leash and means if a wolf is mayor and they make another wolf the vig, they can’t lie about who they give the bullets to?

How do we tell apart a malicious wolf shooting villagers and a confused villager not knowing who to shoot?

beakerjoe

Drumpot wrote: »

How do you work that out?

What have we got? Potentially 6 baddies? 25 in village. Straight forward multiply the baddies by 4 to get the percentage of baddies and percentage chance of hitting them.

I can be corrected on the amounts of baddies (somebody said they missed a convert, I don’t know how this is confirmed) which means that there is less then 24% chance of us hitting a baddy?!

I misspelled, that should say likely.

Also I didnt realise we had a no lynch option until now, disregard my thoughts

kitten_k

The no lynch option kinda make sense as it means we won't lose an villager when we don't really have much to go on at the moment. Also means we can't get a baddie but the chances of hitting a baddie over a goodie are less.

Kolido

Drumpot wrote: »

But do we not get results of Mayor vote? This means we know who is mayor. They can tell us who they chose to be vig? This means they can tell us who has bullets. Most importantly we can get the person with the bullets to confirm reciept of bullets? This keeps the wolves on a short leash and means if a wolf is mayor and they make another wolf the vig, they can’t lie about who they give the bullets to?

Plus we can vote who to shoot if we know who has the gun

grumpylumpy

grumpylumpy wrote: »

How do we tell apart a malicious wolf shooting villagers and a confused villager not knowing who to shoot?

We dont have to use the gun either

Arabtinian

Drumpot wrote: »

But do we not get results of Mayor vote? This means we know who is mayor. They can tell us who they chose to be vig? This means they can tell us who has bullets. Most importantly we can get the person with the bullets to confirm reciept of bullets? This keeps the wolves on a short leash and means if a wolf is mayor and they make another wolf the vig, they can’t lie about who they give the bullets to?

I think we get the results of the mayor vote the same as the lynch!

But sensible reasoning there drumpot. Keeping the wolves on a short lease is important if we wanna win the game. Keeping the seer alive and control of who has the gun will be vital in that!

beakerjoe

Deleted User wrote: »

Also if we have 2 bullets a day whats the rush to start offing people

I also forgopt about the 2 bullets a day business. No lynch is the way forward, lets hope we get the Mayor vote right.

Ive also choosen a Mayor. God speed Mayor

Kolido

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We dont have to use the gun either

Not if you get it

grumpylumpy

Deleted User wrote: »

We dont have to use the gun either

No lynches and no gun, we'll just let the wolves eat us

Triceratops Ballet

so we vote for the mayor, the mayor picks a vig,we nominate 2 people to receive bullets to the brain, if the vig goes off book they get strung up tomorrow?

Triceratops Ballet

Deleted User wrote: »

We dont have to use the gun either

who are you?!!

beakerjoe

Deleted User wrote: »

We dont have to use the gun either

If we get a gun, best time to use it would be after munch (thats if we can use it after munch). We will have better odds of hitting a wolf then. Though Id say the Mayor will have to choose before munch.

Bounty Hunter

I've voted for a mayor but atm I too am leaning towards a no lynch vote. Primarily because I don't feel confident in anyone I would put on an FFA and as a result would go with the stats especially as given my time difference I tend to have to vote early.

Hopefully people start acting odder though and maybe no lynch won't seem as much of an appeling option even if it is probably only one i'd consider on the first lynch.

Triceratops Ballet

so what if instead of a lynch FFA we did an FFA for the two bullets?

grumpylumpy

grumpylumpy wrote: »

No lynches and no gun, we'll just let the wolves eat us

Well as our numbers dwindled the odds of us hitting a wolf increase plus we have more info to go on to make better decision. There is a point where you have to lynch to win as as you say to not lynch/shoot anyone loses the game its just not on night 1 imo

Triceratops Ballet

I've also already voted no lynch

Drumpot

grumpylumpy wrote: »

How do we tell apart a malicious wolf shooting villagers and a confused villager not knowing who to shoot?

We lynch a rogue villager because we can’t be sure they aren’t a wolf pretending to be confused. You either agree to the village terms (reveal you have bullets and wait for consensus) or you are a threat.

We will know who is mayor. This person should then ask the village who to give the gun to. Then the person we agree on should publically confirm receipt of bullets.

We clarify that they should not shoot unless we all agree. It sanitizes the role but it reduces the wolves ability to abuse it?

tritium

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We dont have to use the gun either

Never thought it would be Mick who’d realize this. Good shout

beakerjoe

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

I've voted for a mayor but atm I too am leaning towards a no lynch vote. Primarily because I don't feel confident in anyone I would put on an FFA and as a result would go with the stats especially as given my time difference I tend to have to vote early.

Hopefully people start acting odder though and maybe no lynch won't seem as much of an appeling option even if it is probably only one i'd consider on the first lynch.

We can still do FFAs and vote no lynch. More data can only help us surely

Triceratops Ballet

Triceratops Ballet wrote: »

who are you?!!

I can be sensible when talking about strategy but its more do as I say not as I do type thing. All bets are off if I get the guns :pac: