Russian Foreign Policy Megamix

Discodog

Very detailed comment in the Sunday Mail - yes I know But the sources appear sound.

The agent was specially designed to have a time delay. The Skirpels survived because, by chance, the doctors on duty had recently completed a course at Porton.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5590067/Nerve-agent-used-poison-Russian-spy-designed-4-hours-work-allow-culprits-flee.html

cnocbui

Discodog wrote: »

Very detailed comment in the Sunday Mail - yes I know But the sources appear sound.

The agent was specially designed to have a time delay. The Skirpels survived because, by chance, the doctors on duty had recently completed a course at Porton.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5590067/Nerve-agent-used-poison-Russian-spy-designed-4-hours-work-allow-culprits-flee.html

A bit OT, but worth saying, I think: The hackneyed device of countering someone's argument by deriding the news source is lazy and invalid. I now think the Daily Mail is a far better news site than the BBC. The DM usually includes copious details in it's reporting while many other supposedly well-regarded sources, particularly the BBC, don't. Throughout the Skripal poisoning episode, I have turned to the DM because details are important and are completely lacking from the lazy trash the BBC puts out as news. A good recent example was that dreadful bus crash in Canada where so many were killed. I wondered what happened. I stupidly looked at the BBC. Not the slightest bit of relevant information, not even a photo of the crash site. Turn to the DM and the contrast couldn't be greater. Multiple photos of the crash scene, a helpful map of Canada pointing to the location it took place and a pretty significant detail that the truck smashed straight into the side of the bus at speed. Another useful detail in that the truck driver had been detained, questioned, and released at the scene.

Edit: Lol! Having read the immensely informative DM article Discodog linked, I turn to the BBC and..... nothing, unless you want to "meet the fearless drag queens of Beirut" or read about the "undying Asian gay icon in red heels".

cnocbui

Discodog wrote: »

Very detailed comment in the Sunday Mail - yes I know But the sources appear sound.

The agent was specially designed to have a time delay. The Skirpels survived because, by chance, the doctors on duty had recently completed a course at Porton.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5590067/Nerve-agent-used-poison-Russian-spy-designed-4-hours-work-allow-culprits-flee.html

Looks like I wasn't far off with my microencapsulation theory. Same result via a different method.

To think that two businesses have been put out of business and three buildings will have to be demolished! Seize some Russian assets to compensate and pay for all that.

cnocbui

And the Daily Mail continues to deliver:

RAF listening post in Cyprus intercepted message on day of Skripal poisoning.
...
According to the Sunday Express, intelligence ‘insiders’ revealed two messages sent from Syria to Moscow were intercepted at an RAF listening post in Cyprus on March 3 and 4.

The message on March 4, the day of the poisoning, included the phrase ‘the package has been delivered’ and that two people have ‘made a successful egress’.
...
The Russian embassy has accused the Foreign Office of failing to explain why a relative of the Skripals was denied a visa to visit them.

Government sources told the Mail that the visa was refused over fears that Miss Skripal’s cousin Viktoria was being used as a pawn by the Kremlin.

Miss Skripal has also said she does not want Viktoria to visit her, and has rejected demands from the Russian embassy that it provide consular support to her and her father.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5593803/RAF-spooks-intercepted-Russian-message-Skripals-posioned.html

Supports my hypotheses that Viktoria is a stooge and Yulia didn't want to see her.

Discodog

The formulation also lends credence to the theory that the compound was specifically produced for assassination. From what I have read the tactical formulation would be a micro mist.

charlie14

Discodog wrote: »

Do you really think that the EU would of jumped to support May or Boris without evidence ? They are hardly flavour of the month & must of offered irrefutable evidence to convince so many countries.

It is in the EU`s interest to keep Britain on-side to get agreement on a Brexit deal.
Even at that, the only collective decision of the EU was to withdraw its ambassador to Russia.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Then perhaps you should let somebody know as the British don`t appear to with the latest hypothesis being that it was sprayed on a door handle.

The only people I have heard say that this nerve agent is so dangerous it could not be made by a chemist in a lab without killing the chemist were British scientists.
Based on that I do not see how the premise that whoever applied it would either need a bio hazard suit, or they had a death wish was faulty

What we actually do know is that two people were exposed to a nerve agent manufactured in the past by Russia.
Anything else is simply conjecture.

Some people would never trust anything that the British say. That gives them a problem in considering this case.

I haven't heard a single compelling argument that it wasn't the British. The only thing I would say is that the evidence is that on the balance of probabilities it was the Russians, but perhaps not beyond a reasonable doubt. It would meet the civil test of proof but not the criminal one (yet).

Dohnjoe

blanch152 wrote: »

I haven't heard a single compelling argument that it wasn't the British.

In fairness, we haven't heard a single compelling argument that is wasn't the Swiss. That's not the way it works, we look at evidence, indicators, past behaviour, reactions, etc - so far, as mentioned several times already, it all points in one direction

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Some people would never trust anything that the British say. That gives them a problem in considering this case.

I haven't heard a single compelling argument that it wasn't the British. The only thing I would say is that the evidence is that on the balance of probabilities it was the Russians, but perhaps not beyond a reasonable doubt. It would meet the civil test of proof but not the criminal one (yet).

Some might even be wary of believing without question those that got it so utterly wrong in a rush to war a few short years ago and the disastrous ongoing consequence of that.

As far as I am concerned while there is reasonable doubt then everything else is simply opinions or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information.

Christy42

charlie14 wrote: »

Some might even be wary of believing without question those that got it so utterly wrong in a rush to war a few short years ago and the disastrous ongoing consequence of that.

As far as I am concerned while there is reasonable doubt then everything else is simply opinions or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information.

No one has been invaded over this. Some diplomats has to home. Hardly the same.

Second of all we had some serious dissent at the time of the Iraq war. Many intelligence agencies disagreed with the US view point and the weapon inspectors were also giving a different view. It was hardly everyone going along without question.

Discodog

But, at the risk of repeating myself, all that matters is what the EU, US, Nato etc think & they are all very convinced. The Swedish PM just stood next to May & confirmed their belief that Russia did it. Those dreadful warmongering Swedes

mcmoustache

Christy42 wrote: »

Second of all we had some serious dissent at the time of the Iraq war. Many intelligence agencies disagreed with the US view point and the weapon inspectors were also giving a different view. It was hardly everyone going along without question.

I think a lot of people are too young to remember this but there was a lot of hostility to the Iraq war. The only people who were for it were the neocons and New Labour. Most people knew that the whole thing was built on lies before the war. It's not like there was a pro-war consensus first followed by condemnation afterwards.

This is why I don't understand why people make points such as the one you're responding to.

Itssoeasy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhVaSWYcdyQ

I love this show but funny enough this scene involves the expulsion of Russian diplomats(well soviet at the time).

Discodog

Yulia is out of hospital.

Roger_007

Discodog wrote: »

Yulia is out of hospital.

The BBC news website says "she has been taken to a secure location".
Effectively, she is in protective custody, presumably to keep her away from the media as much as keeping her away from her Russian 'friends' and family.
The British intelligence service must know at this stage exactly what happened on the day of the attack but it is strange that they are saying nothing. The more they keep quiet the more the suspicion grows that their case of Russian state involvement does not hold up.

Discodog

Roger_007 wrote: »

The BBC news website says "she has been taken to a secure location".
Effectively, she is in protective custody, presumably to keep her away from the media as much as keeping her away from her Russian 'friends' and family.
The British intelligence service must know at this stage exactly what happened on the day of the attack but it is strange that they are saying nothing. The more they keep quiet the more the suspicion grows that their case of Russian state involvement does not hold up.

Or she is applying for asylum because Russia tried to kill her. There will be a press conference shortly

Gatling

Discodog wrote: »

Or she is applying for asylum because Russia tried to kill her. There will be a press conference shortly

I believe they already have temporarily been given political asylum while in hospital ,
It seems to be the case both will get asylum and life long protection

oscarBravo

Roger_007 wrote: »

The British intelligence service must know at this stage exactly what happened on the day of the attack but it is strange that they are saying nothing.

Yeah, it's weird. Normally SIS are so open about everything they know.

Dohnjoe

Roger_007 wrote: »

The British intelligence service must know at this stage exactly what happened on the day of the attack but it is strange that they are saying nothing. The more they keep quiet the more the suspicion grows that their case of Russian state involvement does not hold up.

Time doesn't really diminish the details, it just takes the story out of the headlines. It's very unlikely they would release all private intelligence to the public unfortunately - sources have to be protected

The on-going investigation should hopefully shed light on who did it and how

Also, nowadays many more people are aware of the Russian information war and disinformation campaigns than they used to be.

cnocbui

Roger_007 wrote: »

The BBC news website says "she has been taken to a secure location".
Effectively, she is in protective custody, presumably to keep her away from the media as much as keeping her away from her Russian 'friends' and family.
The British intelligence service must know at this stage exactly what happened on the day of the attack but it is strange that they are saying nothing. The more they keep quiet the more the suspicion grows that their case of Russian state involvement does not hold up.

I'm pretty sure Yulia is free to come and go as she pleases, but likely has been strenuously advised to accept the offered protection. Given what she has been through, I doubt she wants to ignore the advice and what is being offered. She has a phone, she could call for help and say that she was being detained against her will. She isn't in custody. She doesn't want to see her cousin, reportedly.

British intelligence have suspects and they know the names they traveled under. These would be the Russian 'couple' seen near the Skripals on the day they were poisoned and who flew back to Russia the same day. They know that a woman traveled to the UK on the same flight as Yulia and then returned to Russia only 5 hours later. Not hard to work out she was likely the female half of the 'couple'. They also know the existence and location of the facility where the novochok was made and it's formulation and means of delivery.

Probably won't be long before the Uk names the couple and asks for their extradition to the Uk to stand trial, with the inevitable rejection of the request by Putin.

This is a criminal investigation. There is nothing whatsoever suspicious about the public not being told all the details while the investigation is still under way. That is perfectly normal.

Dohnjoe

New statement from Yulia Skripal

The woman who was poisoned alongside her father in the Salisbury nerve agent attack has released a statement.

Yulia Skripal, who was poisoned alongside her father Sergei in Salisbury last month, has said: “I find myself in a totally different life than the ordinary one I left just over a month ago, and I am seeking to come to terms with my prospects, whilst also recovering from this attack on me.”

Miss Skripal said she has been made aware of offers of help from the Russian Embassy but said: “At the moment I do not wish to avail myself of their services.”

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/salisbury-nerve-agent-victim-yulia-skripal-releases-statement-turns-down-offer-of-help-from-russian-embassy-36798575.html

Looks like she's distancing herself from Russian help

Gatling

Dohnjoe wrote: »

New statement from Yulia Skripal


https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/britain/salisbury-nerve-agent-victim-yulia-skripal-releases-statement-turns-down-offer-of-help-from-russian-embassy-36798575.html

Looks like she's distancing herself from Russian help

She Also told her relative Viktoria thanks for the concern but please don't contact me again

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/yulia-skripal-turns-down-offer-of-assistance-from-russian-embassy-11326800

cnocbui

There was a rather disjointed and rambling DM article yesterday with a lot of interesting details scattered throughout. It was largely about Yulia's supposed boyfriend via Viktoria but a couple things stood out:

The FSB seemed oddly keen for Yulia to find out from her late brothers widow in Cyprus, precisely which bank held a secret account into which $ 200K had been deposited from the sale of dad's former house in the UK. I'll bet the wife would be ever so keen to tell Viktoria that. Wife Natalia doesn't mess around. Husband died last year in St Petersburg and she's already re-married to a Brit tennis coach. She is the daughter of a former friend of Sergei Skripal, one GRU colonel Gennady Grishchenko ... 'Dad, I have a little problem with Alexander...' 'Don't worry lisichka, I shall take care of it.'

Viktoria has several times mentioned another secret account Yulia just gained access to holding the same amount of money.

I wonder if the FSB are trying to get themselves a large bonus on the sly by relieving Skripal's children of such burdens?

Another interesting tidbit was about the mother of the supposed boyfriend:

His mother heads the highly secretive Research and Production Association 'Institute of Modern Security Problems' where is it believed he also worked. The shadowy outfit is believed to have links to the security services.

It was founded by Norilsk Nickel which is part-owned by oligarch Oleg Deripaska who was sanctioned last week by the US.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602901/Yulia-Skripal-fears-betrayed-fianc-nerve-agent-attack.html

And Oleg Deripaska supposedly worked with Paul Manafort, former campaign head for President Donald Trump, to 'further' the kremlin's/Putin's interests.

Another DM article yesterday was about a Russian 'reporter' who wandered around in Salisbury District hospital asking where's Sergei? and being bemused that he and the the public were freely able to wander about the hospital, stating that freedom to be bizarre and a sign that a nerve agent couldn't have been used otherwise the hospital would be in lockdown. It may be called Russia now but if that lad (he looks to be about 15) is any indication, the USSR is alive and well!

The interesting bit about this reporter is he works for REN TV, which is owned by National Media Group, which is chaired by former Russian gymnast Alina Kabaeva. Who is Putin's current bed warmer.

All roads seem to lead to Putin, not ROME, in this case - surprise, surprise.

Dohnjoe

Also looks like Viktoria has changed her tune - she now thinks the attack was linked to Yulia's fiancee and his mother - both of whom reportedly work for Russian intelligence. I think if the Kremlin really got backed into a corner over this, they would use the pair as scapegoats, rogue "patriots" or some convenient line. Unless Russia has completely lost control of it's CW stockpiles (unlikely) there is no way this attack happened without Putin knowing about it

On a side note; the GCHQ chief didn't pull any punches there, implicated Russia directly

"“It demonstrates how reckless Russia is prepared to be, how little the Kremlin cares of the rules-based order, how comfortable they are at putting ordinary lives at risk,”

Gatling

OPCW confirm substance used to poison the skipals was "Novichok " of very high purity and no impurities found in the sample,


https://news.sky.com/story/chemical-watchdog-confirms-novichok-poisoned-sergei-skripal-11327382

cnocbui

And the Kremlin said it was the fish.

Bad luck Vlad, guess it wasn't.

mcmoustache

cnocbui wrote: »

And the Kremlin said it was the fish.

Bad luck Vlad, guess it wasn't.

Russia says a lot of things. The link there goes to a business article with 14 different theories coming out of Russia regarding the Skripal case.

This is all part of the firehose of falsehood. The aim isn't to have a competing consistent alternative narrative - it's to confuse and make it appear that the truth is unknowable.

Russian media does this all the time. Despite them being controlled by the Kremlin, they push multiple competing and contradictory theories. This confuses the population and they doubt everything in the media.

The central theme is that all media is lying and that the free press is no different than the Kremlin controlled media. You can even see it in other forums whenever a Russian related topic comes up - "didn't happen", "false flag", "food poisoning", "bias against russia". It's a firehose.

Discodog

Gatling wrote: »

OPCW confirm substance used to poison the skipals was "Novichok " of very high purity and no impurities found in the sample,


https://news.sky.com/story/chemical-watchdog-confirms-novichok-poisoned-sergei-skripal-11327382

Plus they confirm that the agent came from Russia.

mcmoustache

Discodog wrote: »

Plus they confirm that the agent came from Russia.

I couldn't see that in the summary:

The results of analysis of biomedical samples conducted by OPCW designated
laboratories demonstrate the exposure of the three hospitalised individuals to this
toxic chemical.
9. The results of analysis of the environmental samples conducted by OPCW designated
laboratories demonstrate the presence of this toxic chemical in the samples.
10. The results of analysis by the OPCW designated laboratories of environmental and
biomedical samples collected by the OPCW team confirm the findings of the United
Kingdom relating to the identity of the toxic chemical that was used in Salisbury and
severely injured three people.
11. The TAV team notes that the toxic chemical was of high purity. The latter is
concluded from the almost complete absence of impurities.
12. The name and structure of the identified toxic chemical are contained in the full
classified report of the Secretariat, available to States Parties.

I'm certain that it came from Russia, especially given the amount of misinformation they were pumping out but I don't see anything to verify a Russian origin here other than it being of a very high purity.

Discodog

mcmoustache wrote: »

I couldn't see that in the summary:
I'm certain that it came from Russia, especially given the amount of misinformation they were pumping out but I don't see anything to verify a Russian origin here other than it being of a very high purity.

That was the headline on the lunchtime radio news. Maybe they had other information or were briefed incorrectly.