Russian Foreign Policy Megamix

Dohnjoe

cnocbui wrote: »

Quite literally, the historical record has been written for all time and people will read about it in the future as indisputable fact.

On a side note, personally I wouldn't use this wording. We have strong confirmations, high certainty of certain facts, high probabilities.. however investigation is still on-going and there is a lot we don't know yet

(In my opinion) claiming anything as indisputable fact will put you in an irreversible position later if anything deviates even slightly from those facts. Often a change in minor details does not change the findings of a case, but will be used as leverage by those trying to discredit the case as a whole (in my experience anyway)

Cheerful Spring

cnocbui wrote: »

Game over, doubt has been banished, case is closed.

Quite literally, the historical record has been written for all time and people will read about it in the future as indisputable fact.

You don't seem to understand the significance of an OPCW report - they are like the uncontestable expert witness in a court case. The UNSC can make decisions on significant military action based on OPCW findings. It doesn't get any more serious than that.

People can stomp their feet and have their immature tantrums till they're red in the face in their denial, but it makes not a jot of difference. It's written in stone at this point.

Russia said it wasn't them: proven no lab has linked this substance to any Russian person or lab.

So as it stands right now it just all allegation based on nothing no evidence nothing.

This is just judge politics, they skipped the jury part and convicted Russia.

Cheerful Spring

cnocbui wrote: »

Both the Skripals had body fluid samples taken. Those were tested by Porton Down. Novichok was found, they mentioned nothing else.

On the basis of the Novichok finding, a medical treatment protocol ensued which I believe included large doses of Atropine, to counteract the disruption of the functioning of acetylcholinesterase, which is the mechanism by which all organophosphate based nerve agents work.

That treatment regime clearly appears to have worked, which it wouldn't have unless the poison was a nerve agent.

As well as that, The OPCW sent the Skripal biological samples to 4 accredited laboratories, which tested the samples and presented results to the OPCW which were the basis for their report that confirmed the original diagnosis by Porton Down.

As well as all that there were the forensic environmental samples detected at multiple locations relevant to the Skripals movements and all those were tested in parallel with the other samples and they also matched the tissue samples.

Case closed.

Finding Novichok does not prove Russian guilt. It just evidences someone tried to kill people with an agent that could traced back to the Soviet Union. Sloppy work by the Russian intelligence networks? I don't buy it for one minute this obviously the work of MI6 and MI5 or agents of another country hostile to Russia carried it out.

Until I see proof of Russian involvement, something tangible and verifiable I going to presume this was just another attempt to lay blame at Russia feet.

Christy42

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Finding Novichok does not prove Russian guilt. It just evidences someone tried to kill people with an agent that could traced back to the Soviet Union. Sloppy work by the Russian intelligence networks? I don't buy it for one minute this obviously the work of MI6 and MI5 or agents of another country hostile to Russia carried it out.

Until I see proof of Russian involvement, something tangible and verifiable I going to presume this was just another attempt to lay blame at Russia feet.

Why do you not need proof that there is some malicious motive on behalf of those giving out about Russia as you require proof of Russia's involvement?

Discodog

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Finding Novichok does not prove Russian guilt. It just evidences someone tried to kill people with an agent that could traced back to the Soviet Union. Sloppy work by the Russian intelligence networks? I don't buy it for one minute this obviously the work of MI6 and MI5 or agents of another country hostile to Russia carried it out.

Until I see proof of Russian involvement, something tangible and verifiable I going to presume this was just another attempt to lay blame at Russia feet.

You have seen pages & pages of proof on several Board's fora but you will always ignore it & continue the same old response.

Cheerful Spring

Discodog wrote: »

You have seen pages & pages of proof on several Board's fora but you will always ignore it & continue the same old response.

I read a lot of rubbish if that's what you're talking about? Got proof Russia did it I am ready for that post lets go;)

Discodog

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

I read a lot of rubbish if that's what you're talking about? Got proof Russia did it I am ready for that post lets go;)

You just ignore everything & then just repeat the same comments over & over again

charlie14

Dohnjoe wrote: »

On a side note, personally I wouldn't use this wording. We have strong confirmations, high certainty of certain facts, high probabilities.. however investigation is still on-going and there is a lot we don't know yet

(In my opinion) claiming anything as indisputable fact will put you in an irreversible position later if anything deviates even slightly from those facts. Often a change in minor details does not change the findings of a case, but will be used as leverage by those trying to discredit the case as a whole (in my experience anyway)

Just on that.
Has anybody read Robert Fisk`s recent article on the Douma chemical attack.

If he is correct, then perhaps just like this issue, the old adage of "say nothing until we know more" would be the wisest move.

Cheerful Spring

Discodog wrote: »

You just ignore everything & then just repeat the same comments over & over again

I know what you're going to write and it's same tired old arguments I have seen repeated for the last month, by others. Give it up nobody has provided anything yet confirming this attack was carried out by Russia. If that evidence appears then we can look at it and discuss this properly and in a civil way.

Dohnjoe

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

I read a lot of rubbish if that's what you're talking about? Got proof Russia did it I am ready for that post lets go;)

There is no "proof" yet. But that isn't how this works. All the information, evidence and facts can point to the Kremlin and intelligent agencies can know they are involved, but it's next to impossible to prove Putin gave the order. The UK can have overwhelming evidence that e.g. 2 Russian agents were involved and issue an arrest warrant - but Russia will just ignore that

That's what happened with the murder of Litvinenko - the extradition orders were ignored, these men were made heroes in Russia. Beside, at this stage there is no mechanism in Russia that can hold Putin to account, the opposition has been suppressed, the media controlled and the Duma is merely an extension of Putin's inner circle. Everyone knows this.

If, hypothetically, worst came to worst and it came anywhere near Putin, they would just sacrifice someone lower in the line of command, a rogue "patriotic" FSB agent. By this stage there is a vast body of evidence over the last almost 2 decades that Putin and/or the FSB has had a significant number of spies, lawyers, journalists, opposition politicians murdered.. with complete impunity

Vladimir Uglev, one of the scientists who developed Novichok, just said as much:

Moscow maintains there is no evidence that it targeted the Skripals.

"It's absolutely right," Vladimir Uglev tells me. "You will never prove Russia's guilt. Unless you can find the actual test tube that contained the actual poison."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43828580

Cheerful Spring

Dohnjoe wrote: »

There is no "proof" yet. But that isn't how this works. All the information, evidence and facts can point to the Kremlin and intelligent agencies can know they are involved, but it's next to impossible to prove Putin gave the order. The UK can have overwhelming evidence that e.g. 2 Russian agents were involved and issue an arrest warrant - but Russia will just ignore that

That's what happened with the murder of Litvinenko - the extradition orders were ignored, these men were made heroes in Russia. Beside, at this stage there is no mechanism in Russia that can hold Putin to account, the opposition has been suppressed, the media controlled and the Duma is merely an extension of Putin's inner circle. Everyone knows this.

If, hypothetically, worst came to worst and it came anywhere near Putin, they would just sacrifice someone lower in the line of command, a rogue "patriotic" FSB agent. By this stage there is a vast body of evidence over the last almost 2 decades that Putin and/or the FSB has had a significant number of spies, lawyers, journalists, opposition politicians murdered.. with complete impunity

Vladimir Uglev, one of the scientists who developed Novichok, just said as much:


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43828580

What evidence: Soviets made Novichok 28 years ago?

The only Fact seems to be holding right now is a form of Novichok was used to poison Skipral and his young daughter.

That fact you claim the Russia media is controlled is proof you just regurgitating Western propaganda about Russia. I have a feeling you get your news from BBC and CNN..

Cheerful Spring

Litvinenko. The poison was found in a restaurant before he even met the Russian agents that day, and the guy Litvinenko met at the restaurant had traces of the substance on his body.

Dohnjoe

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Litvinenko. The poison was found in a restaurant before he even met the Russian agents that day, and the guy Litvinenko met at the restaurant had traces of the substance on his body.

Lugovoi, one of the main suspects, was made a member of parliament by Putin which granted him immunity to prosecution

He's lauded as a hero over there (for killing a "traitor") It was Polonium 210 from a Russian reactor. It's not like they were trying very hard to cover their steps, but, like the Novichok program they have to officially deny it

cnocbui

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

What evidence: Soviets made Novichok 28 years ago?

The only Fact seems to be holding right now is a form of Novichok was used to poison Skipral and his young daughter.

That fact you claim the Russia media is controlled is proof you just regurgitating Western propaganda about Russia. I have a feeling you get your news from BBC and CNN..

Uglev said the Russians probably used a batch of Novichok he himself made as it has a nearly unlimited shelf life.

Discodog

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

What evidence: Soviets made Novichok 28 years ago?

The only Fact seems to be holding right now is a form of Novichok was used to poison Skipral and his young daughter.

That fact you claim the Russia media is controlled is proof you just regurgitating Western propaganda about Russia. I have a feeling you get your news from BBC and CNN..

Hang on, you & Lavrov say it's BZ not Novichok

Discodog

Online activity by Russian bots, trolls and automated accounts has increased by 4,000% in the days and weeks following the Salisbury poisoning and suspected chemical attack in Syria.

Government analysis has identified "Kremlin inspired" accounts that have repeatedly posted messages to "spread disinformation and distort the truth" - described by Prime Minister Theresa May as "part of a wider effort to undermine the international system".

One Twitter account identified by the UK Government as being a Russian bot, @Partisangirl, posted more than 2,300 tweets in less than a fortnight - an average of 200 posts a day.

It's estimated those tweets reached around 62 million people.

The research, by Whitehall officials, found that the many of the accounts commented on both events in Salisbury and Syria.

Posts included support for articles claiming the poison used on the streets of Salisbury was never produced in Russia and attempts to spread the theory that Porton Down manufactured the chemical agents used in Syria.

Separately, government social media experts have documented more than 45,000 posts propagating disinformation narratives in the two weeks since the Syria attack on 7 April, with a potential reach of around 20 million social media users.

Mrs May visited the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) in London on the fringes of the CHOGM summit, along with her Australian, New Zealand and Canadian counterparts. The four nations are part of the 'Five Eyes' intelligence sharing relationship, along with the United States.

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-bots-behind-4000-rise-in-spread-of-lies-after-salisbury-and-syria-attacks-11338466

cnocbui

Here's another one for you: Syria war: The online activists pushing conspiracy theories - http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43745629
Astonishing similarity with themes repeated on the related threads here ad nauseam.

Seems like all those who think they are 'independent thinkers' and believe in Western wrongdoing and conspiracy are just gullible and easily manipulated.

mcmoustache

Dohnjoe wrote: »

He's lauded as a hero over there (for killing a "traitor") It was Polonium 210 from a Russian reactor. It's not like they were trying very hard to cover their steps, but, like the Novichok program they have to officially deny it

I don't know how people still aren't getting this. Russia doesn't care that the lies are unconvincing - the lies are only for official purposes but they know that nobody, including the domestic audience believes them.

It's lying with a straight face. It's the uniquely Russian concept of vranyo.

John Arundel Barnes, A pack of lies: towards a sociology of lying, page 67:
In Russian culture a distinction is drawn between two kinds of lies, vranyo and lozh which do not have exact parallels in English. Vranyo has been claimed as uniquely Russian, and seems to consist of telling untrue but credible stories, a practice not condemned by those who recognize what is going on. Indeed, for success in vranyo-telling, there must be a listener who pretends to believe in the truth of what is being said. [...] Lozh, on the other hand, implies a conscious intention to deceive.

David Shipler, Russia: Broken Idols, Solemn Dreams, page 21-25, 295:
A Russian friend explained vranyo in this way: "You know I'm lying, and I know that you know, and you know that I know that you know, but I go ahead with a straight face, and you nod seriously and take notes."

To put this into context of the poisoning, when Russia says they didn't do it, they are doing so because they want to be on record denying it. On the other hand they know that everyone knows that they are lying but they are OK with that because they also want people to know that they will find and kill traitors wherever they find them. They are saying "Officially, we didn't do it but we totally did".

Russia does this all the time and every time, we have people repeating the lies or falling for the lies as though they learned nothing the last time.

The only ones being fooled by Russia here are those who for some reason want to be fooled. This isn't some unique and clever form of trickery. It's what Russians have been doing for hundreds of years.

eg, during the Russo-Japanese war, Teddy Roosevelt had some opinions on Russian trustworthiness:

When Theodore Roosevelt was president, three decades before World War II, the world was focused on the bloody Russo-Japanese War, a contest for control of North Asia. President Roosevelt was no fan of the Russians: “No human beings, black, yellow or white, could be quite as untruthful, as insincere, as arrogant — in short, as untrustworthy in every way — as the Russians,” he wrote in August 1905, near the end of the Russo-Japanese War. The Japanese, on the other hand, were “a wonderful and civilized people,” Roosevelt wrote, “entitled to stand on an absolute equality with all the other peoples of the civilized world.”

mcmoustache

Discodog wrote: »

Hang on, you & Lavrov say it's BZ not Novichok

They say a lot of things, many of which contradict each other. The have multiple "truths", in other words, no interest in the truth. There is one reality and the narrative that Russians poisoned the Skripals is consistent with reality. The multiple inconsistent narratives being pushed by Russia are only believable if you start with the conclusion that it was anybody but Russia and work backwards while ignoring the parts of reality that contradict all these different narratives.

Cheerful Spring

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Lugovoi, one of the main suspects, was made a member of parliament by Putin which granted him immunity to prosecution

He's lauded as a hero over there (for killing a "traitor") It was Polonium 210 from a Russian reactor. It's not like they were trying very hard to cover their steps, but, like the Novichok program they have to officially deny it

You ignoring a problem with that narrative though.

Litvinenko met with Mario Scaramella before he even met the Russians that day. They were across London in a hotel.

Mario Scaramella was taken to hospital with traces of the substance in his system. Can't the Russians be in two places at the same time, not unless they are teleporting?

All the signs are Mario Scaramella is connected with the people who carried out this hit and he slipped Litvinenko the p-210

Cheerful Spring

Discodog wrote: »

Online activity by Russian bots, trolls and automated accounts has increased by 4,000% in the days and weeks following the Salisbury poisoning and suspected chemical attack in Syria.

Government analysis has identified "Kremlin inspired" accounts that have repeatedly posted messages to "spread disinformation and distort the truth" - described by Prime Minister Theresa May as "part of a wider effort to undermine the international system".

One Twitter account identified by the UK Government as being a Russian bot, @Partisangirl, posted more than 2,300 tweets in less than a fortnight - an average of 200 posts a day.

It's estimated those tweets reached around 62 million people.

The research, by Whitehall officials, found that the many of the accounts commented on both events in Salisbury and Syria.

Posts included support for articles claiming the poison used on the streets of Salisbury was never produced in Russia and attempts to spread the theory that Porton Down manufactured the chemical agents used in Syria.

Separately, government social media experts have documented more than 45,000 posts propagating disinformation narratives in the two weeks since the Syria attack on 7 April, with a potential reach of around 20 million social media users.

Mrs May visited the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) in London on the fringes of the CHOGM summit, along with her Australian, New Zealand and Canadian counterparts. The four nations are part of the 'Five Eyes' intelligence sharing relationship, along with the United States.

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-bots-behind-4000-rise-in-spread-of-lies-after-salisbury-and-syria-attacks-11338466

Russian bots lol. Are we Russians just because we disagree with the UK stance on this? Great the UK demonising opposition who oppose illegal unjustified wars.

Cheerful Spring

cnocbui wrote: »

Here's another one for you: Syria war: The online activists pushing conspiracy theories - http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-43745629
Astonishing similarity with themes repeated on the related threads here ad nauseam.

Seems like all those who think they are 'independent thinkers' and believe in Western wrongdoing and conspiracy are just gullible and easily manipulated.

America reporter visited ground zero in Douma and people there had no clue what the west was talking about a chemical attack.

Cheerful Spring

Discodog wrote: »

Hang on, you & Lavrov say it's BZ not Novichok

No, I didn't I quoted Lavrov saying BZ was found in a sample and Lavrov requested to the OPCW why this was not included in their report. Go back and read the comments on after hours what I said.

OPCW then comes out and says yes BZ was used but it was a controlled sample not found in Salisbury sample. They left this part out of the classified report.

OPCW was angered Russia revealed classified information.

Dohnjoe

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

America reporter visited ground zero in Douma and people there had no clue what the west was talking about a chemical attack.

It's off-topic. But another example of the Kremlin planting conspiracy theories to deflect from a reality which doesn't suit them (in this case it's likely the boy has been told what to say) The facts on the ground contradict this, the WHO say some 500 people needed treatment (also some pretty unpleasant videos of the attack on the internet)

The Kremlin and Syrian forces are still blocking investigators from visiting the site. Even if inspectors do find chemical traces - it's very likely the Kremlin will claim that the attack DID happen but the rebels did it.. watch the story miraculously change (or just claim that the inspectors are part of a foreign plot to fake results)

mcmoustache

Dohnjoe wrote: »

The Kremlin and Syrian forces are still blocking investigators from visiting the site. Even if inspectors do find chemical traces - it's very likely the Kremlin will claim that the attack DID happen but the rebels did it.. watch the story miraculously change (or just claim that the inspectors are part of a foreign plot to fake results)

Like night follows day.

cnocbui

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

America reporter visited ground zero in Douma and people there had no clue what the west was talking about a chemical attack.

A poor hungry kid who can be bribed to go to the hospital for the promise of a bag of rice... How much did the Russians offer for his story - two bags of rice?

Nothing in that situation to give rise to doubts. /s

Who was the reporter? Funny how only OPCW inspectors get shot at near that building.

Dohnjoe

mcmoustache wrote: »

Like night follows day.

They are trading short term gain for long term international credibility loss

Troll factories, twitter bots, fake bloggers, state media, foreign language propaganda outlets.. these tools aren't going to last forever, if countries weren't convinced before, they are now

mcmoustache

cnocbui wrote: »

A poor hungry kid who can be bribed to go to the hospital for the promise of a bag of rice... How much did the Russians offer for his story - two bags of rice?

Nothing in that situation to give rise to doubts. /s

Who was the reporter? Funny how only OPCW inspectors get shot at near that building.

You know, maybe that video that he posted was staged. Like a staged false flag to make it look like the original videos were a staged false flag. False flagception, if you will.

Dohnjoe

cnocbui wrote: »

A poor hungry kid who can be bribed to go to the hospital for the promise of a bag of rice... How much did the Russians offer for his story - two bags of rice?

Nothing in that situation to give rise to doubts. /s

Threats will also do the trick, considering the Syrian army is in the area

Who was the reporter? Funny how only OPCW inspectors get shot at near that building.

Am familiar with the story but can't check that particular youtube video now as am in work - my crank senses are tingling though, I am betting the "reporter" is not of the impartial variety and probably a partisan activist from a US youtube news outfit?

Cheerful Spring

Dohnjoe wrote: »

It's off-topic. But another example of the Kremlin planting conspiracy theories to deflect from a reality which doesn't suit them (in this case it's likely the boy has been told what to say) The facts on the ground contradict this, the WHO say some 500 people needed treatment (also some pretty unpleasant videos of the attack on the internet)

The Kremlin and Syrian forces are still blocking investigators from visiting the site. Even if inspectors do find chemical traces - it's very likely the Kremlin will claim that the attack DID happen but the rebels did it.. watch the story miraculously change (or just claim that the inspectors are part of a foreign plot to fake results)

It's the reality on the ground Syrian people in Douma witnessed no chemical attack. Next, you accuse Robert Fisk was working for the Russians? We know independent journalists from the West are visiting ground zero already found nothing. How come they were not blocked? I tell you why because they are on there own in Syria, the Russians and Syrians have to protect the OPCW investigators. The UK OPCW representative made that allegation Russia was blocking the investigation, that came from them should not surprise know one!