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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018
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ECM showing heavy showers and large amounts of CAPE possibly producing a fair shot of thunderstorms again tomorrow . Warm temperatures and high Theta E readings with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere ( small bit of DLS ). Would imagine similar type warnings tomorrow starting with yellow and waiting to see how it develops and quite possibly upgrading to Orange warnings later. Storms possibly kicking off early in the afternoon tomorrow again and with a fair amount of activity in the mid afternoon.
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What areas are most at risk tomorrow?
Shortwave trough over Ireland tomorrow aiding the convection so roughly along that line would probably produce the most thunderstorms as it moves E peaking probably in the afternoon / early evening in the hottest part of the day.
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Convective showers perhaps along the S and more so the SE tomorrow where it looks to have the warmest temperatures, Convective Weather has low risk for this area but the chance of thunderstorms looks small but a couple of isolated short lived weakly electrified storms may be possible IMO.
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Possibility of thunderstorms in the Northern half of the country early Sat with the passage of an upper Low, UK set to get quite a few thunderstorms later Sat I would think. Cool day. I wonder if Convective Weathers forecast is a bit early ? I dont see much activity until maybe around 06.00 arriving on the coast , will see more tomorrow.
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 15 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 16 Jun 2018
ISSUED 18:47 UTC Thu 14 Jun 2018
ISSUED BY: Chris
The slight risk of thunderstorms across Ireland on Friday night...
Ireland...
A small low will push east northeastwards across Ireland from Friday evening into the early hours of Saturday. Strong shear (DLS >50kts), and steepening lapse rates will likely produce some organised lines of heavy showers and some thunderstorms. These will be capable of producing some some gusts up to around 50mph and small hail. It should be stressed that lack of instability means this is a low-end slight risk at the moment.
Scotland...
A weak short-wave trough will move through the flow across Scotland during the day on Friday, and this will steepen lapse-rates slightly allowing for some weak instability (200 J/kg CAPE). Convective showers are quite likely, but the lightning risk will remain small.0 -
I think maybe just Northern Counties with a risk of thunderstorms tomorrow. The ECM seems to be showing the most potential for activity. A few thundery showers overnight perhaps also. Lots of DLS , maybe a chance of spotting a funnel.
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 30 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Jul 2018
ISSUED 19:33 UTC Fri 29 Jun 2018
ISSUED BY: Dan
Omega block, centred over the North Sea, will slowly drift eastwards on Saturday towards Scandinavia. The slow-moving upper low over western Iberia will then slide towards Biscay. The mean flow between these two features will tend to veer, allowing advection of a high ThetaW airmass to occur into S / SW England on Saturday night.
... REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
Moisture pooling will likely occur by the afternoon hours as surface dewpoints lift to 15-17C over western portions of Ireland, potentially with significantly lower dewpoints farther east providing a notably sharp boundary. Given the slack surface flow, low-level wind convergence is expected to become more pronounced during the late afternoon, which combined with the approaching Atlantic upper trough may provide enough lift to generate deep convection and a few scattered heavy showers.
Given 300-500 J/kg CAPE, a few sporadic lightning strikes would be possible. However, it must be noted that there are still several model solutions that remain rather unenthusiastic over this potential, and so some uncertainty exists over whether any deep convection may be able to develop - and for now have refrained from issuing a SLGT.
There is also a signal for some elevated convection to develop during the evening and overnight hours, primarily over Connaught / W Ulster, and areas offshore to the N and NW. Some lightning will be possible from this activity also.
... S / SW ENGLAND, S WALES ...
The first signs of elevated convection may begin to develop on Saturday afternoon over the western English Channel, drifting close to Cornwall / Scilly. While isolated lightning cannot be ruled out with this activity, the magnitude of instability will be much more favourable during the overnight hours as isentropic lift promotes more significant destabilisation, especially after midnight. Scattered elevated showers and a few thunderstorms should develop a little more widely over the English Channel during the late evening onwards, drifting northwestwards across parts of SW England, and perhaps into parts of Cen S England and S Wales.
As is often the case in such setups, there is some uncertainty as to how widespread this activity will be, and it seems quite likely that any thunderstorms may weaken as they drift further inland and away from the main instability source which will continue to reside over the English Channel. Latest model guidance exhibits a slowing trend in destabilisation and the arrival of more significant instability - if this trend continues then the SLGT may need to be removed as the focus may shift beyond this forecast period.0 -
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