Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy

4.45 aye aye skipper 2pts e/w 9/1 2nd

chinned by the 40/1 rag.

antietam

Dustin Johnson 9/1 x Belguim 12/1,Tunisia to qualify Group G 6/1,Tunisia top Africian team 8/1,r/f Tunisia/Belguim 8/1,Lukaku top scorer 16/1,Lukaku top scorer in GroupG 2/1.

del roy

antietam wrote: »

Dustin Johnson 9/1 x Belguim 12/1,Tunisia to qualify Group G 6/1,Tunisia top Africian team 8/1,r/f Tunisia/Belguim 8/1,Lukaku top scorer 16/1,Lukaku top scorer in GroupG 2/1.

is that an acca or singles.

mailburner

antietam wrote: »

Dustin Johnson 9/1 x Belguim 12/1,Tunisia to qualify Group G 6/1,Tunisia top Africian team 8/1,r/f Tunisia/Belguim 8/1,Lukaku top scorer 16/1,Lukaku top scorer in GroupG 2/1.

wrong thread maybe


https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057809514&page=6

CH3OH

antietam wrote: »

Dustin Johnson 9/1 x Belguim 12/1,Tunisia to qualify Group G 6/1,Tunisia top Africian team 8/1,r/f Tunisia/Belguim 8/1,Lukaku top scorer 16/1,Lukaku top scorer in GroupG 2/1.

With the greatest respect.
Could you start a thread for your post. As the purpose of this thread is to follow Del roys post

antietam

del roy wrote: »

is that an acca or singles.

All singles except Johnson/Belgium double.Needless to say Monday night will be interesting.

del roy

3.35 neola 1pt e/w 40/1 unpl

5.35 jacobs cats 2pts e/w 11/1 4th

4.45 aye aye skipper 2pts e/w 9/1 2nd

A loss of four points for the day, unlucky not to collect on Jacobs for the place.


86 bets
10 winners
+93.2pts

del roy

4.20 alcatraz 2pts e/w 12/1

12/1 only with ladbrokes, 10/1 gererally.

This horse fairly flew home when he last ran here finishing 2nd in heavy going.
The hosre he finished 2nd to was called ECOEYE. This horse has raced 23 times with three wins, seven 2nd places and one third place.
Thats almost a massive 50% place strike rate but at Cork race track he has raced only five times, with form figures of 12932. When he finished 9th he was 9/2f for the race soobviously something went wrong there.
The reason I go into this horses back form is to point out how consistent a horse he is but even more so at Cork where our horse tried to give him 7LB and was beaten a nk.

Ok Alcatraz faces a tougher grade than he faced when he last visited Cork but Ladbrokes 12/1 is way too big, Alcatraz seems to be a tough little horse who is there or there abouts in his racing but to give a course specialist like ECOEYE, 7LB and be only beaten a nk plus take on board it was Alcatrazs first visit to the Cork course well double figure odds is just too big.

Alcatraz finished 7th, one for the tracker when running back at Cork or the Curragh again, I thought he ran very well .

Jerry

del roy

Ascot comes up in two days time and the ground is looking like it will be good or good to firm.

Ascot stakes. Tuesday 5.10
Dubawi fifty 2pts e/w 16/1 powers paying 5 places 1/5 odds


This race is as the numbers would suggest a real lottery. You need a decent draw and you also need to be able to hold that draw when the stalls open.
Dubawi fifty ran in the Chester cup finishing a very credible 5th in the race, it was his first time running at Chester and the first time Sil De Susa rode the horse. When you look at the choice of horses SDS would have had to chose from the fact he sticks with Dubawi Fifty is good enough for me.
The horse is 2/4 on turf. He was 4th in both the other races, the Chester cup 2m2f and Cesarewitch Handicap 2m2f. The two races he finished 4th in are really rock solid form for this race. These two marathon races are two of the toughest races around.

Lets take a closer look at the Chester cup, Dubawi was 5th, he was only 8/1 the same price of the well backed winner. here are the comments for his run.

Comments: Raced keenly, chased leader after 2f, ridden over 3f out, lost 2nd over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong (op 8/1)

Analysis: Dubawi Fifty, winner of five of his last eight starts and 2-3 on turf, ran a blinder from his middling draw. Ridden to dispute the lead after a couple of furlongs, he was keen enough once there but he never gave up and ran all the way to the line. The best of him is still to come.

Lets look at his Cesarewitch run were he finished 4th beaten 11L. SDS rode the easy winner that day 5/1f so he knows how good the horses that got near him that day are.

Comments: Held up towards rear, ridden and headway from 3f out, went 4th inside final furlong, stayed on well but not pace to get on terms (op 16/1)

Analysis: Dubawi Fifty, bidding for a hat-trick, stayed on strongly from out of the clouds nearer the far rail and was a huge eyecatcher. This going was quicker than he truly cares for and clearly he has a lot of stamina. It'll be interesting to see whether he's kept for the level next year, or tries his luck over jumps through the winter. There's every chance he could make a smart hurdler.

So there looks to be plenty reasons for backing this one, SDS sticking with him, seems to be crying out for a step up in distance and has a good draw in 8.

I see Powers are going 16/1. Thats way too big.

One horse I had my eye on for Ascot was NELSON trained by AO'B. Thought to be good enough to be entered for this years Epsom derby he was only taken out at the very last stage. This 1m6f trip looks to be right what this horse wants. He has really good form in my opinion, he beat ROARING LION who won the Dante and another good 6th in the DERRINGSTOWN TRIAL, a race where he made the running which I thought would have been unsuitable for this horse. As I say I think this 1m6f will bring out the best in this horse

WEDNESDAY Ascot 3.05 NELSON 6/1 3pts win


87 bets
10 winners
+89.2pts

del roy

Tuesday Ascot 5.35
Muntahaa 1pt e/w 28/1
Powers paying 4 places

The difference between this horse and the second fav 6/1 Laraaib is 22pts. However if you judge them on form racing against Poets Word there is nothing between them. They both raced against Poets Word at level weights and they were both beaten 2 1/4 L.

On to tomorrows race, even though Jim Crowley was on record saying LARAAIB was his best ride of the week his enthusiasm has waned a little when he was handed stall 15. He had already committed himself to riding LARAAIB so no getting out of that. However John Gosden had every intention of entering MUNTAHAA no matter what draw LARAAIB got so lets go with that.

Muntahaa has raced 11 times on turf winning two, one 2nd place and three 3rd places. He has raced once at Kempton and won. Kempton always strikes me as a stayers course as they head for home quite early and you need a horse a horse that stays the distance. The Kempton race was 1m4f, he actually beat MARMELLO who won a listed race at York three days ago under Ryan Moore off a rating of 114 by 6L. Form not to be forgotten in a race of this calibre.

Muntahaa runs off 110 tomorrow but I think its the ground that makes this horse a decent e/w bet. From the eleven times he has raced on the flat he has only raced twice on ground good/firm. Those races were when he was 2nd to Poets Word and another 1m4f race which he won beating CHEMICAL CHARGE a horse 114 when he was sold to race abroad.. He has recently been gelded so he may concentrate a little better on his racing these days. He is drawn in stall 8 but I don't mind that as I think he will be finishing well so as long as he is not stuck on the rails with a furlong to go we should get a decent run. This is also a drop in class for this horse as he last ran In Ascot in a group 2 which was won by IDAHO rated 117.

del roy

5.00 Dubawi Fifty 2pts e/w 16/1

I see Powers are going 16/1. Thats way too big.

Not anymore Jerry, 8/1 now.

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

Muntahaa runs off 110 tomorrow but I think its the ground that makes this horse a decent e/w bet.

Just an FYI that race the wolferton is no longer a handicap so Muntahaa doesnt run off 110 as it is a conditions race and not a handicap.
The race is now a listed race with standard listed race penalties applying. 9-3 with 3lb and 5lb penalties.

del roy

kiers47 wrote: »

Just an FYI that race the wolferton is no longer a handicap so Muntahaa doesnt run off 110 as it is a conditions race and not a handicap.
The race is now a listed race with standard listed race penalties applying. 9-3 with 3lb and 5lb penalties.

Noted however there are a few newbies on here and going into the penalty system would be a little complicated so just simplified it by stating his current
mark without penalties but noted.

del roy

Wednesday 5.00 Escobar 2pts e/w 14/1

del roy

Karen McLintock, trainer of Dubawi Fifty
I’m excited about running him and hopeful he’ll run well. He’s done nothing wrong so far and ran a super race at Chester. I've no qualms about him staying the trip, and the track will definitely suit him. We could have done with a bit more rain, but we’ll just have to take it as it is.


Wednesday 5.00 Escobar 2pts e/w 14/1

del roy

Ascot stakes. Tuesday 5.10
Dubawi fifty 2pts e/w 16/1 powers paying 5 places 1/5 odds 2nd

returns 8.4pts

Tuesday Ascot 5.35
Muntahaa 1pt e/w 28/1 Powers paying 4 places 3rd

returns 7.6pts

profit of 10pts for today, happy with that.

88 bets
10 winners
+103.2pts

Aurora1966

del roy wrote:

Ascot stakes. Tuesday 5.10 Dubawi fifty 2pts e/w 16/1 powers paying 5 places 1/5 odds 2nd

del roy wrote:

Tuesday Ascot 5.35 Muntahaa 1pt e/w 28/1 Powers paying 4 places 3rd

Excellent tipping squire

sydthebeat

Yep, great stuff.

Took both e/w and an e/w double.

del roy

3.05 Nelson 3pts win 6/1 antepost price.

5.00 Escobar 2pts e/w 14/1

7.40 Summer Icon 2pts e/w 10/1

Summer Icon has raced fourty times, twenty three on turf winning just won and being placed six times. He has a bit better record on the alweather, raced seventeen times, two wins and nine places.
He only raced twice at Chelmsford finishing 3rd both times and both races were decent size fields (12 and 14 runners). On both occasions Summer Icon came from the back of the field which is not an easy thing to do at Chelmsford. As I say I have certain likes and dislikes about the game, one is two year olds who win at the age of two over a mile and the other is when the fav, 2nd fav and 3rd fav finish 1st 2nd 3rd in any order, I am usually interested in the 4th horse in that race. It is usually a sign the race was run at a good pace in a good time.

Summer Icons time for his first race at the track was decent enough, Winning time: 1m 24.73s (slow by 1.23s). They brought him back to the track three weeks later and send him off 5/1 co fav of four although the times of that race were slower than his first visit, here is the finishing positions of the first six in the betting 5/1 8/1 5/1 5/1 5/1 7/1 so all the horses that were expected to run very well, did just that. It’s hard to find races like that now with BETFAIR around.

This thread is now two months old and I am amazed that 67k have looked in, I think the fact there is no bull**** plus the prices Jerry says he has taken are nearly always available.
I hope it has helped people to reduce the amount of bets they are having, I know people will not just wait for Jerry's bets and they will always pick there own but a few of us got talking the other night and the consensus was why would you not sit back and let him do all the work. Now this was not said in a sneering condescending way just a matter of fact, he studies the form, he backs the horses then he passes them on as he said himself, once he gets the best price available he does not give a fook who backs afterwards.

Now in my own case I only back Jerry's horses to €20 per point but if (and it is a big if) he reaches 150 pts profit I may consider increasing it to €30.
Is there anyone else only backing Jerry's selections.

del roy

3.05 Nelson 3pts win 6/1 antepost price.

few quid for this one now 100/30 with powers.

2ndcoming

F**k them. Nelson offered up as setup man.

del roy

2ndcoming wrote: »

F**k them. Nelson offered up as setup man.

Yeap, he could hardly go any faster, never gave the horse a breather, set it up for KEW GARDENS. :mad:

del roy

2.30 glory fighter 3pts e/w 12/1

5.35 cassini 2pts e/w 14/1

del roy

Well gents you cannot predict the carry on for two of our bets today and I am afraid we will just have to take days like this on the chin.

Firstly we have Nelson going off at 1m pace for a 1m6f race to kill the finishing speed of the others so KEW GARDEN could cruise around and take it up after the others have cried enough to win cosily.

Second bit of carry on which I actually thought was worst was the Summer Icon fiascio. This horse only raced two times at Chelford in races which had twelve and fourteen runners. Below are the comments for both races.

Held up in rear, effort over 1f out, headway under pressure 1f out, stayed on strongly to go 3rd towards finish, not reach leaders (op 4/1)

Dwelt, held up in last quartet, came wide and headway under pressure over 1f out, stayed on strongly inside final furlong, snatched 3rd last strides, never quite getting to winner (tchd 7/1)

So foolishly I thought with this race being one of the best races run at the course this year (prize money) they would slot it in and produce him with maybe half a furlong to go to grab some place money but instead they rush her out, ride her aggressively up to the leaders, stay on the outside, absolutely no cover whatsoever and then comes home in her own time without even having the whip waved at her. Drifted from 10/1 out to 33s.

As I said we will just have to take it on the chin, thats racing.

Jerry

Loss of 10pts for today.

91 bets
10 winners
+93.2pts


Tomorrows bets

2.30 glory fighter 3pts e/w 12/1
5.00 moqarrar 1pt e/w 22/1 powers paying 6 places
5.35 cassini 2pts e/w 14/1 earlier price 16s and 20s available now.

kiers47

In fairness to Nelson and I backed him myself that is exactly how he has been run in all his races this season. I expected Donnacha to try something like that but he may have just went slightly too quick. I'd be pretty sure the better of the 2 horses won that race.

del roy

kiers47 wrote: »

In fairness to Nelson and I backed him myself that is exactly how he has been run in all his races this season. I expected Donnacha to try something like that but he may have just went slightly too quick. I'd be pretty sure the better of the 2 horses won that race.

True Kiers but at least give him a breather at some stage during the race.The gallop he set was relentless but it's a team effort with coolemore and once one of their horse win thats a result for them.

del roy

Tomorrows bets

2.30 glory fighter 3pts e/w 12/1
5.00 moqarrar 1pt e/w 22/1 powers paying 6 places
5.35 cassini 2pts e/w 14/1 earlier price 16s and 20s available now.

7.35 hey pretty 3pts win 5/1 info stuff


15 pts staked for today, I hope we get some kinda return.

del roy

7.35 hey pretty 3pts win 5/1 info stuff

all rests on this fella now.

del roy

Bad day.


95 bets
10 winners
+78.2pts

Mostly Harmless

No bets today?

del roy

I'd say Jerry is licking his wounds but no, there are no bets today,
Two tomorrow Saturday.

del roy

3.15 explain 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl

5.00 brian the snail 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl


97 bets
10 winners
+70.2pts

del roy

98 bets
10 winners
+66.2pts

Well if thats the ride that jock gives horses when they are "off" I would hate to see the ride he gives it when its not trying.

FFS clearly never tried an inch in that race.

MyStubbleItches

What was today's horse Del?

del roy

3.35 lady ranger 2pts e/w 25/1

info stuff.

sorry I will put them up here as well just forgot today.

del roy

Monday
3.00 rio santos 2pts e/w 6/1
RIO SANTOS ran here twice on soft ground running respectable considering the soft ground. The firm ground should help tomorrow being out of Casamento. The stable is in much better form, over the last 12 months the trainer has had 15 runners at Chepstow resulting in three wins and five places. The kid riding tomorrow takes off 7LB and has three rides for the trainer resulting in one 20/1 winner and a 4th, 5th finish.
He seems to be on the drift with powers, opened 5/1 now 6/1.


Did anyone get this bet by text this evening.

MyStubbleItches

del roy wrote: »

Monday
3.00 rio santos 2pts e/w 6/1
RIO SANTOS ran here twice on soft ground running respectable considering the soft ground. The firm ground should help tomorrow being out of Casamento. The stable is in much better form, over the last 12 months the trainer has had 15 runners at Chepstow resulting in three wins and five places. The kid riding tomorrow takes off 7LB and has three rides for the trainer resulting in one 20/1 winner and a 4th, 5th finish.
He seems to be on the drift with powers, opened 5/1 now 6/1.


Did anyone get this bet by text this evening.

Yes the text came through.

barneystinson

What's the story, has this thing ground to a halt or is it all going on via WhatsApp now??

2ndcoming

No bets til the weekend due to poor results of late. Pausing to regroup by the looks of it.

del roy

2ndcoming wrote: »

No bets til the weekend due to poor results of late. Pausing to regroup by the looks of it.

Lads it was not from us but I believe some one was questioning the way Jerry was staking and how he managed the bank. They wanted to know why was he not doing this that and the other but I don't think his reply was appreciated.
It was basically, it's not called gambling for nothing if you want to be guaranteed a sum at the end of the year join a savings club while he fully acknowledges people are following him to win money they also must acknowledge that he must have a bet when he finds what he believes to be a value bet with a winning/place chance.


There was a hic up the other day but Jerry has assured me he will be on here until at least 31 December. All bets will be posted on here as usual.


Del

Imhof Tank

del roy wrote: »

I hope it has helped people to reduce the amount of bets they are having, I know people will not just wait for Jerry's bets and they will always pick there own but a few of us got talking the other night and the consensus was why would you not sit back and let him do all the work. Now this was not said in a sneering condescending way just a matter of fact, he studies the form, he backs the horses then he passes them on as he said himself, once he gets the best price available he does not give a fook who backs afterwards.

Now in my own case I only back Jerry's horses to €20 per point but if (and it is a big if) he reaches 150 pts profit I may consider increasing it to €30.
Is there anyone else only backing Jerry's selections.

Don't know why you got no response to this Del but FWIW I don't think what you are suggesting would sit well with genuine racing fans including many regulars on here. A huge part of the fun of the sport is going racing, doing your own research, taking a position and backing your judgment. Lets be honest, a lot of punters feel they know as much as the pundits on TV.

You have sorta bashed people looking for savings clubs and that's fair enough but IMO backing a tipster's selections blind is just a higher risk version of the same thing.

Lady Haywire

I take the selections as a guide and look at the horses form for myself. If i don't like it, I won't back it but would still watch the race out of interest. Though a few of the 'info' bets I have backed just because they always seem to run well.

kiers47

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Don't know why you got no response to this Del but FWIW I don't think what you are suggesting would sit well with genuine racing fans including many regulars on here. A huge part of the fun of the sport is going racing, doing your own research, taking a position and backing your judgment. Lets be honest, a lot of punters feel they know as much as the pundits on TV.

You have sorta bashed people looking for savings clubs and that's fair enough but IMO backing a tipster's selections blind is just a higher risk version of the same thing.

Think thats a fair comment. I dont really tend to back tips myself. I have a few judges i know and others i follow on twitter that i read what they say but ultimately i will do a fair bit of digging myself when i do have a bet.

Leasing on from your last point above. The fact of the matter is and often gets brushed over. Running a tipping column or betting selections involves being able to get on for the desired amount at the desired price and tbh while it was easy to get on last week it is not always possible at every odd meeting during the week.
Also the big tipsters like pricewise/Hugh Taylor/etc.. the prices are slashed more or less when they put them up and there is literally nobody getting on at the advised prices.
Another factor is this crack of advising a 6/1 selection the horse winning at 10/1 and the presumption that everyone is getting guaranteed odds. This is simply not the case.

But anyway this is merely some thoughts. I do enjoy reading the selections Jerry puts up and the logic. Even if i dont explicitly back them myself unless of course i also fancy the same horse :pac:

del roy

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Don't know why you got no response to this Del but FWIW I don't think what you are suggesting would sit well with genuine racing fans including many regulars on here. A huge part of the fun of the sport is going racing, doing your own research, taking a position and backing your judgment. Lets be honest, a lot of punters feel they know as much as the pundits on TV.

You have sorta bashed people looking for savings clubs and that's fair enough but IMO backing a tipster's selections blind is just a higher risk version of the same thing.

I think he meant be to prepared to lose as well as win but really I would not do this if



A. I couldn't get on at the prices Jerry suggested and

B. I was sure Jerry is backing the selections as well.


I don't think Jerry thinks he is Tom Segal he has said if anyone on here wants to follow a guy who puts three or fours hours of studying the form and has a data base of certain stats then as soon as he is on he will put it up here.


If you have time to study the form yourself well that's up to you if you want to study yourself.


Lads I cannot stress how serious Jerry takes his betting. I could just back them myself without this thread but like Jerry I also couldn't give a flying fook who backs them, once I am on of course.


The only reason I put the back ground with Jerry and the UK guys is he left here to start a "private tipping service" and that did not work out.



I actually got in touch with Jerry to start this back up when I heard he was winding down other things and suggested to him it would be a bit of craic.


As I said there is no motive behind starting here again other than to prove to everyone can the book be beaten.


As guys who followed when I first brought Jerry on here know I always call a spade a spade but to be fair there would not be many out there who would study for a few hours a day and then post their findings on a public anonymous forum.


Del

Kiers
our posts crossed there.

Point taken about the drift but nearly all books do that now unless you are restricted however thats not Jerry's fault he is dealing with guys who are restricted, Jerry himself has no accounts whatsoever and has people betting for him. As I said thats how serious he takes it, his view is every point counts and thats what he has to do to avail of the best prices.

The total is always based on what I price I get as sometimes Jerry posts me with 16/1 when it is long gone so if I get 12/1 that is the price I base the returns on.

jobeenfitz

del roy wrote: »

I think he meant be to prepared to lose as well as win but really I would not do this if



A. I couldn't get on at the prices Jerry suggested and

B. I was sure Jerry is backing the selections as well.


I don't think Jerry thinks he is Tom Segal he has said if anyone on here wants to follow a guy who puts three or fours hours of studying the form and has a data base of certain stats then as soon as he is on he will put it up here.


If you have time to study the form yourself well that's up to you if you want to study yourself.


Lads I cannot stress how serious Jerry takes his betting. I could just back them myself without this thread but like Jerry I also couldn't give a flying fook who backs them, once I am on of course.


The only reason I put the back ground with Jerry and the UK guys is he left here to start a "private tipping service" and that did not work out.



I actually got in touch with Jerry to start this back up when I heard he was winding down other things and suggested to him it would be a bit of craic.


As I said there is no motive behind starting here again other than to prove to everyone can the book be beaten.


As guys who followed when I first brought Jerry on here know I always call a spade a spade but to be fair there would not be many out there who would study for a few hours a day and then post their findings on a public anonymous forum.


Del

Kiers
our posts crossed there.

Point taken about the drift but nearly all books do that now unless you are restricted however thats not Jerry's fault he is dealing with guys who are restricted, Jerry himself has no accounts whatsoever and has people betting for him. As I said thats how serious he takes it, his view is every point counts and thats what he has to do to avail of the best prices.

The total is always based on what I price I get as sometimes Jerry posts me with 16/1 when it is long gone so if I get 12/1 that is the price I base the returns on.

Fair play Del, thanks for putting up the tips. I'm too lazy to read form anymore so it's handy to have a free assistant to do it for me. I made profit from your previous tips a few years back.

del roy

No problem Fitzy but we are all old enough to know we are gambling, Jerry is not claiming or guaranteeing a profit at the end of the year. I think that's why he is a little miffed about the remarks about bank management.

Look at the end of the day, Jerry gives the bets to me and I put them up here for lads who bet nearly every other day that have no time to study the form themselves.

I also like to say everyone is different and I understand people love to pick their own winners/losers.

Also all opinions just make this thread a better read so thanks for the feedback.

del roy

Oh can I just say,

Jerry is doing a rain...no sorry a sun dance for the Galway hurdle already, a 3pts e/w bet as soon as the majority of the bookmakers open a book.

FFS Jerry, would you not wait for a harder race, the galway hurdle, madness I tell ya madness.

del roy

Friday 7.10 Shadagaan 1pt e/w 25/1

del roy

100 bets
10 winners
+60.2pts


1.30 sam missile 2pts e/w 20/1

del roy

1.30 sam missile 2pts e/w 20/1

5.20 Kabrit 5pts win 11/8