Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

Chancer3001

barneystinson wrote: »

From Del:

3.50 sauchiehall street 1pt e/w 20/1
Info stuff.

Can someone put this up on boards as i am away for the day

8th.

Tried sitting back and come late. Finish didn't happen unfortunately.

Auroras_encore

barneystinson wrote: »

From Del:

3.50 sauchiehall street 1pt e/w 20/1
Info stuff.

Can someone put this up on boards as i am away for the day

Obviously working for a bookie at this stage haha

kiers47

As has been pointed out he does choose the strangest of races to go each way at times.
Each way in a 14 runner handicap is -EV i would say 95% of the time.

I seen the comment that he will keep doing the same as always.
While this post isn't a criticism merely some advice or pointers.

When i go through any sustained period of losers/losses(i have gone through as bad as this definitely) i tend to evaluate how i pick my selections. How i price them to The SP's they go off? What races i am betting on? Do i still have an edge i thought i had before? Am i being influenced by variables i shouldn't be influenced by.
Bookies learn also. So something that worked in the past may not work again and it would be foolish to keep bashing away at a particular strategy.

While he is still in the + and i am not criticizing. I think sometimes and this may not be the time or it might be. But it would be silly to keep doing the same thing without even reviewing the methods.

Anyway just some thoughts. I am sure things will change. Good luck!

2ndcoming

I've always been of the opinion that e/w bets are only for large investments that you care about losing the win stake.

Say for instance you get strong word for an 8/1 shot you want to have a serious cut but he's an 8/1 shot after all so you want to cover yourself so you might have 50 or 100 e/w.

Fiver e/w etc I just never got the logic behind. a) it's a fiver, you'll get over it and b) in the long run you're only doing yourself out of the tenner win. There's more chance that the horse will either win or not place at all than the horse will come 2nd or 3rd.

Just my opinion

kiers47

2ndcoming wrote: »

I've always been of the opinion that e/w bets are only for large investments that you care about losing the win stake.

Say for instance you get strong word for an 8/1 shot you want to have a serious cut but he's an 8/1 shot after all so you want to cover yourself so you might have 50 or 100 e/w.

Fiver e/w etc I just never got the logic behind. a) it's a fiver, you'll get over it and b) in the long run you're only doing yourself out of the tenner win. There's more chance that the horse will either win or not place at all than the horse will come 2nd or 3rd.

Just my opinion

I see what your saying but if something is value like the place part of a bet then i dont see why you wouldn't back it. Stake should be irrelevant.

An each way bet should be thought of as 2 separate bets a win bet and a place bet. Usually and mostly due to the outdated system the place part of each way bets are hardly ever value. So you'd be better off doing just win as you say. That might be a 20 runner race or a 6 runner race. Value should be reviewed for each instance.

Also i think people saying that they wouldnt back each way at under odds of 8/1 or 4/1 etc.. I mean i dont really get this either but each to their own.

A few weeks ago i backed Roaring Lion Each way at 11/4(i think it was). 1/5 odds 1-3 in the eclipse(no after timing i had it up in the eclipse thread).
But i thought the win price was fair and i had him at about a 1/5 shot for a place.

If i can back a 1/5 shot at 1/2+ im going to back him.

del roy

1.50 pivotine 3pts e/w 11/1

del roy

Not much help there from the jockey, think it finished 6th.

Mid-division, trying to close but trouble passage through from over 2f out until inside final furlong, ran on final 75 yards, bumped towards finish

del roy

129 bets
11 winners
-.5ptpts

1.50 great sound 1pt e/w 33/1
6.10 biddy the boss 2pts e/w 16/1

del roy

131bets
11 winners
-6.5ptpts

4.35 project bluebook 3pts e/w 14/1

bookman2

del roy wrote: »

131bets
11 winners
-6.5ptpts

4.35 project bluebook 3pts e/w 14/1

Argh ffsake I fancy this one too tomorrow!

del roy

bookman2 wrote: »

Argh ffsake I fancy this one too tomorrow!

del roy

132bets
11 winners
-12.5pts

del roy

On to the Oaks.

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 3yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.




Not that it is of any benefit but WILD ILLUSION made all the running today for only thethird time in her career and won. 4/1

bookman2

del roy wrote: »

On to the Oaks.

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 3yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.




Not that it is of any benefit but WILD ILLUSION made all the running today for only thethird time in her career and won. 4/1

fair play to the kid he was spot on with that analysis pity we can't get paid out on it tho! another 1 of his previous tips runs in the 8.00 pursuing steed.

del roy

I have just got two messages from "serious followers" their words not mine letting me know they are out.

" I could not follow or take serious any tipster who loses over 100 pts in such a short time span "
Going by what you say yourself Jerry is supposedly putting €100 per point. He should have no problem getting on I would gladly take his bets.
Good luck following him as in my view he is an average lucky guesser.


I am sorry if you lost a few quid by following this thread however we are all big boys on here and gambling is not a hobby for boys in short trousers.
This guesser made 265 points profit on the very first CAN THE BOOK BE BEATEN thread.
All gamblers have losing runs but I will agree with you this one is horrendous.


Lads I will continue to put them up on here. I will also continue to back them myself to €30 per point. I will also continue the whatsapp texts if only to keep people in the loop of how he is doing.

Del

del roy

del roy wrote: »

I have just got two messages from "serious followers" their words not mine letting me know they are out.

" I could not follow or take serious any tipster who loses over 100 pts in such a short time span "
Going by what you say yourself Jerry is supposedly putting €100 per point. He should have no problem getting on I would gladly take his bets.
Good luck following him as in my view he is an average lucky guesser.


I am sorry if you lost a few quid by following this thread however we are all big boys on here and gambling is not a hobby for boys in short trousers.
This guesser made 265 points profit on the very first CAN THE BOOK BE BEATEN thread.
All gamblers have losing runs but I will agree with you this one is horrendious.


Lads I will continue to put them up on here. I will also continue to back them myself to €30 per point. I will also continue the whatsapp texts if only to keep people in the loop of how he is doing.

Del

I have to ask, with no disrespect, but what is the logic in increasing your stakes by 50% during an admitted, terrible run? Why at the same stage when things are going well you're telling posters to not increase their stakes?

del roy

Pappa

Don't forget I have been privy to 80% of Jerrys bets over the last 4 years and I have always said on here, anything I cannot prove I will not repeat on this thread. I just hope/expect Jerry's luck to change.
Don't forget I have said on here plenty of times I will be more than happy with approx 70pts profit but thats my view.

Also Pappa, fire away with any questions. I have always tried to be upfront on here since the very first thread as if you read my replies on the first thread I was of the impression there are very very few beating the book but over the last few years I would count Jerry as one of them.

the whole year inn

del roy wrote: »

I have just got two messages from "serious followers" their words not mine letting me know they are out.

" I could not follow or take serious any tipster who loses over 100 pts in such a short time span "
Going by what you say yourself Jerry is supposedly putting €100 per point. He should have no problem getting on I would gladly take his bets.
Good luck following him as in my view he is an average lucky guesser.


I am sorry if you lost a few quid by following this thread however we are all big boys on here and gambling is not a hobby for boys in short trousers.
This guesser made 265 points profit on the very first CAN THE BOOK BE BEATEN thread.
All gamblers have losing runs but I will agree with you this one is horrendous.


Lads I will continue to put them up on here. I will also continue to back them myself to €30 per point. I will also continue the whatsapp texts if only to keep people in the loop of how he is doing.

Del

Why do they have to saying anything at all,this isnt a paid service and there no obligation to stay or bet. They can easy unfollow the thread or Whatsapp group and no one would care.
Clearly there betting outside there means and if they were they would only be breaking even now if they followed all the bets.

Imhof Tank

del roy wrote: »

Pappa



Also Pappa, fire away with any questions. I have always tried to be upfront on here since the very first thread as if you read my replies on the first thread I was of the impression there are very very few beating the book but over the last few years I would count Jerry as one of them.

Del

Firstly don't worry about the "serious followers". Anyone blindly following an anonymous forum tipster is nothing but a serious mug by definition. The minute you mentioned setting up a whatsapp group it was only a matter of time before you started getting blowback like that for your trouble.

Not sure how you can make the bolded claim however at this point. Yes, the kid did very well on the first thread but I think you yourself explained that he completely changed his methods after that when being followed by the UK subscribers and things went badly. I assume he thinks he is now back to his original system but he clearly hasn't been beating the book since you came back on here both on this thread and the last one where you never got out of the hole.

blindside88

Hi Guys,

I’ve been following the thread on and off but don’t always get to check in. If there’s a watts app group I wouldn’t mind being added so I could see the tips as they are posted and then follow.
Thanks

del roy

5.25 the warrior 2pt e/w 14/1

del roy

133 bets
11 winners
-16.5pts

no bets today

del roy

2.20 bailey sunset 3pts win 4/1

info stuff

del roy

134 bets
11 winners
-19.5pts


Maybe should have did it much earlier but I have decided to have a two week break and will send bets from the 18th August onwards.


Jerry.

bobwilliams

Thanks for all these lays lads..making a small fortuneðŸ‘ðŸ‘

del roy

bobwilliams wrote: »

Thanks for all these lays lads..making a small fortuneðŸ‘ðŸ‘

when did you start laying them Bob, just before the fall from +113 points

started,


get up the yard ya big tit ya.

bobwilliams

del roy wrote:

when did you start laying them Bob, just before the fall from +113 points

del roy wrote:

when did you start laying them Bob, just before the fall from +113 points

del roy wrote:

get up the yard ya big tit ya.

No sense of humour on this thread...only one's giggling are the bookies...all the way to the bank

del roy

bobwilliams wrote: »

No sense of humour on this thread...only one's giggling are the bookies...all the way to the bank

Bob
if I had no sense of humour I wouldn't be on here, relax did ya not see me

at the end.
if there is one thing these basterding bookmakers have taught me is


how too lose. :mad:

del roy

some points for discussion while Jerry is away.

I have recently gone back over some of my DOs and DON'Ts for punting.
Some of the rules I broke since I started following Jerry are

Never back a 4yr old or older horse not to win in a class he has never won in before.

3yr olds ok as they are improving obviously you can get a lightly raced 4yr who will improve but in general nearly all horses reach the official rating or near enough to it by 4yrs old excluding sprinters.

Trainers in form, I would never have had backed a trainer who has not had a winner in the last 30 days.

I was always taught the yards in form are the ones to consider when having a bet.

There are a few others but they would be my main ones.

Anyone any others.

Mostly Harmless

Rule 1: Do not make any hard and fast rules

The end

DONTMATTER

So it's a bad losing run. You're losing money. Previously there was a good run and you were gaining money? Over 5 years do you think you'll have gained money or lost? Over 10 years? At best you'll be close to even, this is through for 95% plus of all gamblers. Mostly it's a loss, sometimes major losses. All this thread proves once again is that the bookies can't be beaten.
They are huge odds on to beat any gambler, especially since they can just close your account if you're going well.

del roy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Rule 1: Do not make any hard and fast rules

The end

Deffo don't agree with that MH.


there are so many bets out there and I for one would have to have criteria to go on.


The best system I ever followed was about 10 years ago on a forum caled


expert betting.


This guy had software that pointed out horses that finished 4th to the first three favs in any order however the stakes were based on what order the favs finished in the race.


so if todays horse finished 4th last Friday and the fav was 1st, 2nd fav was 2nd and the third fav was 3rd it would be 3pt win bet. You also followed it for the next two races if it lost the first one.



All other bets were 1pt bets. He was a techie guy and when he stopped posting others tried to do it but it was taking them

del roy

Don'matter

They are huge odds on to beat any gambler, especially since they can just close your account if you're going well.


there are ways around this angle so the old excuse of

"sure if your winning they just shut your account" excuse is a load of shoite.

Jerry is winning and still has the same bets with the same bookmakers only using different people.

Mostly Harmless

del roy wrote: »

Deffo don't agree with that MH.


there are so many bets out there and I for one would have to have criteria to go on.


The best system I ever followed was about 10 years ago on a forum caled


expert betting.


This guy had software that pointed out horses that finished 4th to the first three favs in any order however the stakes were based on what order the favs finished in the race.


so if todays horse finished 4th last Friday and the fav was 1st, 2nd fav was 2nd and the third fav was 3rd it would be 3pt win bet. You also followed it for the next two races if it lost the first one.



All other bets were 1pt bets. He was a techie guy and when he stopped posting others tried to do it but it was taking them

I think that's so far wrong TBH and I genuinely treat anyone who refers to "winning systems" with a deal of caution.

The problem with all this rule based punting and "systems" is you are applying arbitrary measures to random events that do not follow a set pattern - in your example above, do you really believe that a horse that got beaten a nose into 5th (with 3 favs ahead) and was miles clear of rest would have any different chance to a horse that was 4th and had the rest of the field within 2 lengths behind - that's without even considering the make up of the market (i.e. long odds on fav vs tightly grouped at top of market).

Sure you may stumble across a system that is profitable but often it's just short term favorable variance and you are making your bets based on correlation rather than causation - also if you suddenly hit a load of losers in a row how do you know your edge has gone or if it's just bad variance - you're basically married to a system for better or for worse and that can be soul destroying in the bad runs.

So in short, forget about systems and form your own opinions.

DONTMATTER

del roy wrote: »

Don'matter

They are huge odds on to beat any gambler, especially since they can just close your account if you're going well.


there are ways around this angle so the old excuse of

"sure if your winning they just shut your account" excuse is a load of shoite.

Jerry is winning and still has the same bets with the same bookmakers only using different people.

Oh yes but you're ignoring the odds on you actually winning. Not only do you have to go through the huge effort in research and studying form etc. You also have to go through the struggle of putting bets on. Then after all that, you are at best breaking even! Most of the time you are losing!

gordongekko

del roy wrote: »

Never back a 4yr old or older horse not to win in a class he has never won in before.

NEVER back a 4yr old or older horse NOT to win in a class he has NEVER won before.

A double negative is a positive so do back the horse and the never bit might be a triple negative so maybe don't back the horse.

So surely rule 1 should be the rules should be easy to understand

jobeenfitz

Using other people's names/accounts can throw up problems and be an extra cost.

Mostly Harmless

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Using other people's names/accounts can throw up problems and be an extra cost.

Even if you have a steady stream of willing friends, it's a total nightmare and you have to be very careful about not using same phone/laptop with multiple accounts and not connect over same IP address etc

maxmo

Google IEsnare

Mostly Harmless

maxmo wrote: »

Google IEsnare

Aye, just one of many tools in the big firms armory - try installing a cookie blocker in your browser (Disconnect, Ghostery, etc) and it's astounding just how many trackers are on most big firms landing pages - blocking them all could probably get your account flagged too TBH. Burner phone using only 3G/4G is the fool proof option.

Whiplash85

What kind of winnings would you want to be getting before account is closed or restricted. Or is it a series of bets where horses are 20-1the morning of a race and go off at 2-1 that get you noticed.

del roy

Whiplash85 wrote: »

What kind of winnings would you want to be getting before account is closed or restricted. Or is it a series of bets where horses are 20-1the morning of a race and go off at 2-1 that get you noticed.

Both really any shortening of horses you back and winnings are both taking into account. :mad:

clfy39tzve8njq

Mostly Harmless wrote:

Aye, just one of many tools in the big firms armory - try installing a cookie blocker in your browser (Disconnect, Ghostery, etc) and it's astounding just how many trackers are on most big firms landing pages - blocking them all could probably get your account flagged too TBH. Burner phone using only 3G/4G is the fool proof option.

And on top of all that your horse still has to win. Is it worth all the trouble ?

Mostly Harmless

Whiplash85 wrote: »

What kind of winnings would you want to be getting before account is closed or restricted. Or is it a series of bets where horses are 20-1the morning of a race and go off at 2-1 that get you noticed.

Based on my limited experience these are the things that will get you closed/restricted:

1. Consistently beating SP
2. Betting on obvious arbs
3. Betting on overnight prices (especially in conjunction with No 1)
4. Betting on bad each way races (i.e. when horse is shorter price to place on betfair than place part of EW bet)
5. Winning (this is less of a problem if not combined with Nos 1,2,3,4)

Some firms are better/worse than others.

Mostly Harmless

Natalia Abundant Dirt wrote: »

And on top of all that your horse still has to win. Is it worth all the trouble ?

Depends on your priorities in life, no way I would want to rely on betting as a sole source of income, it's not anyway near as glamorous as some would have you believe. But it can be done if you're diligent.

realdanbreen

del roy wrote: »

134 bets
11 winners
-19.5pts


Maybe should have did it much earlier but I have decided to have a two week break and will send bets from the 18th August onwards.


Jerry.

Don't blame you with all the horse***t flying around, enjoy the break.

del roy

A nice easy 17 runner handicap to start back with.


7.00 Guanabara bay 1pt e/w 25/1

Guanabara has basically been kept to 6f and 7f however the horse has raced 43 times and during those races has only raced four times over the mile distance. His record over the mile reads
3/17
4/10
5/18
11/12 uk.

His wins have come in fields of 14, 14. 13, 11.
This long run in here at Leopardstown should help tonight and he is no 25/1 shot here tonight.

Jerry

Lads
can someone bang this up on whatsapp for me.

Del

Auroras_encore

del roy wrote: »

A nice easy 17 runner handicap to start back with.


7.00 Guanabara bay 1pt e/w 25/1

Guanabara has basically been kept to 6f and 7f however the horse has raced 43 times and during those races has only raced four times over the mile distance. His record over the mile reads
3/17
4/10
5/18
11/12 uk.

His wins have come in fields of 14, 14. 13, 11.
This long run in here at Leopardstown should help tonight and he is no 25/1 shot here tonight.

Jerry

Lads
can someone bang this up on whatsapp for me.

Del

7.50 and has a great chance with high altitude being the main danger

Imhof Tank

7.00 Guanabara bay

Dead last

I feel your pain Kid!

barneystinson

Imhof Tank wrote: »

7.00 Guanabara bay

Dead last

I feel your pain Kid!

Only beaten by a neck though!