Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

longshotvalue

kiers47 wrote: »

Worth adding and I'm not sure where ye stand on this. But there is little point following a tipster if you are not taking the price advised.

Hugh Taylor turns a massive profit year on year but I would guess you would be losing money if betting sp.

Hugh puts a selection up most days. His P/L for a year I am thinking is somewhere in the 200-300 range. So if you followed him every day and took 1 point less than advised on every selection you would likely lose money.
Fine margins and all that.

True, id normally suggest you should put up a price along with at least 3 decent bookies that have the price at the time. I think that horse above was actually a bigger price than 5/1 when it went up with some bookies.

xlogo

For Hugh Taylor..
You would rarely get the price advised as it tends to drop quickly once he puts his selection up.

del roy

Magical will have to pass a late fitness test before being given the green light to run in the Investec Oaks after suffering a setback.

Aidan O'Brien's filly is the general second favourite for the Epsom Classic on Friday, behind the Charlie Appleby-trained Wild Illusion, but her participation could now be in doubt.

O'Brien said: "She just gave herself a little bit of a tip on the inside of her joint this morning. There was a little bit of filling in it this morning but it scanned perfect and we're going to make a decision about her in the morning. The filling has to be gone out of it in the morning and we're cooling it at the moment. Hopefully it will be gone and if it is there won't be a problem."

Magical, who won the Group Two Debutante Stakes as a two-year-old, has run just once so far this season, finishing fourth in a Group Three in France last month.

She is now a 6/1 chance, non-runner/no bet, with Sky Bet.

Surely we could not be that lucky or could we.

del roy

4.40 casemates square 9/1 2pts e/w non runner

7.10 straits of magellan 33/1 1pt e/w

2.20 camakasi 3pts win 5/1 4th

loss of 3 pts for today

59 bets
7 winners
+107.5pts

del roy

kiers47 wrote: »

Worth adding and I'm not sure where ye stand on this. But there is little point following a tipster if you are not taking the price advised.

Hugh Taylor turns a massive profit year on year but I would guess you would be losing money if betting sp.

Hugh puts a selection up most days. His P/L for a year I am thinking is somewhere in the 200-300 range. So if you followed him every day and took a point or 2 less than advised on every selection you would likely lose money.
Fine margins and all that.

*Actually am way off on this and it would be related to the number of points invested to winners. Either way I think it's useful when tipsters give a price range rather than just 1 price. Not that I follow any myself but I like seeing something like 5/1+ as in 5/1 should be the min price you should take and anything after that is a plus.

Anyway not a complaint or anything about what's going on here. Clearly on a roll. Just some stuff I thought was interesting.

Never really thought about it much I just put up the price I get hence that is why sometimes there are bigger prices available, a few years ago when Jerry first did this I opened accounts with bookmakers in my name but they closed them.


Stan james
Bet365
Betvictor
William hill
Betfair matchbook


all closed to me, can't even get .50c e/w.

del roy

An update on the Derby

As of 7pm today and after 16mm of rain the ground is now soft at Epsom and very unsettled weather forecast from now till Saturday.


So far so good! Saxon Warrior, brilliant winner of the 2,000 Guineas, odds-on for Saturday's Investec Derby and a potential Triple Crown hero, is pleasing everyone, according to Aidan O'Brien, who could field a six-strong team for the Epsom Classic.

Rostropovich, a 50-1 shot who makes up O'Brien's seven remaining Epsom entries, is set to bypass the Derby in favour of the French equivalent at Chantilly 24 hours later.

Saxon Warrior will be partnered by Ryan Moore for the first time since they teamed up to make history in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October, when O'Brien broke Bobby Frankel's Group 1 world record.

The last horse to complete the 2,000 Guineas-Derby double was Ballydoyle's Camelot – also a Racing Post Trophy winner – who justified 8-13 favouritism at Epsom in 2012. Saxon Warrior is threatening to start even shorter, with ****, Ladbrokes and William Hill currently going 4-6.

"Ryan will be back on Saxon Warrior on Saturday and everything is fine with the horse. He's pleasing everyone with what he's doing and everyone seems very happy," O'Brien said on Tuesday afternoon.

He added: "Donnacha [O'Brien, the trainer's son] rides him in all his work and he's been very happy with everything over the last few weeks since the Guineas. It was his first run of the year at Newmarket, so you'd expect him to come on from that, but we'll have to see what happens on Saturday.

"I would not like to compare him to any of our other horses at this stage. We all know he was a very good two-year-old and he was a good winner of the Guineas on his first start at three, so hopefully he can continue to progress in the way he is doing."

O'Brien is currently responsible for half the 14 left in the Derby, but Rostropovich will wait for the Prix du Jockey Club on Sunday and his final team selection will not be made until Thursday due to the mixed weather forecast

"With the way the weather is, things are a bit up in the air and much will depend on what way the ground is. That delays us a little," O'Brien said.

"Delano Roosevelt handles an ease in the ground, so he will not mind any rain that falls. Similar comments apply to Nelson, who handled heavy ground at Leopardstown to win earlier in the season. Nelson is not a definite but a possible at this stage.

"Kew Gardens lost a shoe at Lingfield and we're thinking of letting him take his chance. The Pentagon would prefer nice ground, so we will see what way the weather is for him. He's gradually getting there and coming forward nicely. We're going to wait for France with Rostropovich."


I would not want much more rain any later than Thursday as the track drys out quickly and the weather forecast for Friday and Saturday is to be very warm.

On the plus side it should really suit our filly Wild Illusion.

del roy

8.20 lord topper 2pts e/w 10/1 c/o powers

del roy

Surely we could not be that lucky or could we.

OH YES WE CAN



UPDATE ON THE OAKS BET

Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

THE 2ND FAV AND 3RD FAV HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN THIS MORNING

WILD ILLUSION NOW CLEAR 5/2 FAV WITH ALL BOOKS


Friday 1st June 2018
The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w

I think this is a seriously good filly. Her 3yr old form reads 131. I am really interested in colts and filly’s who win over the mile distance at the young edge of two.
Her 2yr old form reads 131. She started her career at Yarmouth of all places where she made all and duly won. Comments of race were
Made all, ridden over 2f out, driven over 1f out, going best after and stayed on well, comfortably (op 5/2). The form of the race has not worked out great with only the second horse winning so far.

On to Chantilly for the Prix d'Aumale (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) 5 runners. Wild illusion went off 7/2. They decided to give her some cover in the small field of five runners. Two things may have happened that day
1. She hated being held up.
2. She just did not run her race that day for whatever reason.
She was only beaten 1L 3/4L.
They must have went home and realised they did the wrong thing by holding her up. Three weeks later they supplemented her for the Total Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf).
Here’s what the post say
However, Appleby has seen an improvement in her form at home and after a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed the call was made to roll the dice and supplement the filly.
Under a positive James Doyle ride, that gamble paid off spectacularly, as the daughter of Dubawi led early in the home straight before staying on stoutly for a 25-1 success over the previously unbeaten Polydream.
“She came forward a lot for her last run and we were delighted with her at home," said Appleby. "I spoke to his highness in depth about her and he said, 'Go for it, if you're happy with the horse'."

Fast forward to the races James Doyle takes the lead as soon as the stalls open, makes all and wins by 1L and ¾ beating France’s big hope, the unbeaten Polydream.

Make no mistake to do what she did at 2yrs old to some very well bred horses over a mile when her pedigree is packed with stamina gives her a big shout in this year’s oaks. Also her win was a second faster than the Oaks fav Happily who is 6/1. Wild Illusion has a dosage index of 0.50 which is excellent.

I am not mad on her for the 1000 Guineas as her stamina at 2yrs of age helped her beat the well bred milers but it will be much tougher as a 3yr old
They say the guineas is the best trial for the Derby and Oaks so let’s see if she tries to make all the running and more importantly will she be passed.

This is an ante post bet if the horse does not run we lose our money.

Jerry

I thought I would let the dust settle for a while before I had a look back at the 1000 guineas. Wild Illusion finished 4th beaten 2 and 3/4L. Some observations from the race,

She was first off the bridle, 2f out she was literally being scrubbed along with Jame Doyle really getting down in the saddle, the winner passed her as if was trotting down to the start.
So her record is, raced four times, won twice, lost twice.
Made the running in the two races she won, didn't make it in the two she lost.
I think James Doyle when he got a good break from the stalls and was in the lead must have sensed/known she was not fit enough to go the speed he wanted to go, for that mile race. He let the horse that eventually finished 2nd pass his filly as if to say, I am not going any faster, first time out when the Oaks is our target.

I am quite happy with the race she ran.

One filly I was impressed with was Forever Together finished full of running in what looked to me a slowly run trial at Chester on Thursday. They ran each furlong at 13.10 second, Young Rascals race was a furlong further and they ran the furlong in that race at 12.99.
Forever Together got hampered when she try to make her run, lost momentum but got going again very quickly, that's a hard thing to do in a slow run race and if the oaks is run too quick Forever Together will benefit the most.
I see two firms going 12/1 on WILD ILLUSION. That seems fair however I expect her to come on a bundle for the guineas run and think she will go off at the 7/1 mark.

James Doyle said after the race,

I'm pretty pleased with Wild Illusion. She coped with the ground pretty well and is crying out for a bit more distance.

Roll on Epsom.


Jerry

ffs Jerry
ya know nothin about horse racing,

I think she will go off at the 7/1 mark

Ya Clown Ya.

del roy

Todays bets

8.20 lord topper 2pts e/w 10/1 c/o powers


4.00 almunter 11/4 3pts win

info stuff

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

Never really thought about it much I just put up the price I get hence that is why sometimes there are bigger prices available, a few years ago when Jerry first did this I opened accounts with bookmakers in my name but they closed them.


Stan james
Bet365
Betvictor
William hill
Betfair matchbook


all closed to me, can't even get .50c e/w.

I hear ya.

del roy

Right lads just keeping the list of remaining bets all together less someone misses one.

Todays bets

8.20 lord topper 2pts e/w 10/1 c/o powers

4.00 almunter 11/4 3pts win info stuff

and three ante post bets for this weekend

Friday The Oaks…..Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w
Saturday. Epsom Dash.... 3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1
Saturday The Derby....Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1


Now at least if we lose we can say " we lost but we were very well organized"

2ndcoming

Lord Topper NR

del roy

For anyone who needs a rest, no more bets until Monday, Jerry has gone away for a few days, next bet maybe Monday or Tuesday.

60 bets
7 winners
+104.5pts

del roy

I know some people cannot log to gambling or bookie sites from their work place as this was one of the reasons I used boards.ie.

Here is an article about the Oaks from Mike Cattermole from the sportinglife.

It is a shame that the obviously smart Lah Ti Dar misses out on her big chance in the Investec Oaks at Epsom on Friday and even if her absence has opened up the race a bit, it is a surprise that the field is such a small one.

However, Wild Illusion, with a pedigree that screams out middle distances, is taken to provide Charlie Appleby with a first domestic Classic success and William Buick his third.

Wild Illusion won the Group One Prix Marcel Boussac on soft ground at two, and in a good time, although the form has taken a knock or two since.

However, she showed she had trained on with a creditable fourth in the 1,000 Guineas behind Billesdon Brook and it is good to see that race standing up well with runner-up Laurens winning a Group One last weekend at Paris Longchamp, and the third Happily and sixth Soliloquy running good races (and virtually to form) in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last Sunday.

The significant thing about that run from Wild Illusion was that Appleby made a point of stressing beforehand that it was the Oaks that was the main aim for the daughter of Dubawi, for whom an easy surface is proven.

Given that her dam, Rumh, won at two miles, it seems reasonable to expect that she will build on what she has done already and, if she does, she will set a decent standard to aim at, being already the highest-rated filly in the line-up.

Five of her eight rivals are trained by six-time winning trainer Aidan O’Brien, and who knows how much improvement they will show? Ryan Moore sticks with Magic Wand, winner of the Cheshire Oaks - on good ground.

Magic Wand took a bit step forward there and her previous form (on a more testing surface on both starts) was nothing out of the ordinary. She looked a work in progress at Chester, albeit quite an exciting one, and stayed the trip well. You can imagine that there is plenty more to come.

Her stablemate, Forever Together, chased her home at a distance of three and a half lengths after having no luck in running at all and had been absent since last October - far longer than Magic Wand, who had a prep run earlier in the spring.

Bye Bye Baby is the second highest-rated in the field and the most experienced. She won the Group Three Blue Wind Stakes at the Curragh over 10f on a testing surface and is certainly bred to be suited by this trip.

Seamie Heffernan was in the saddle then but not now (it’s Wayne Lordan) – Heff is on I Can Fly after partnering her in the 1,000 Guineas when well held and perhaps unsuited by the quick surface. Moore had tried her out before that when third in the 7f Guineas trial at Leopardstown.

Trying to work out the Ballydoyle booking order is a puzzle in itself!

Ryan had ridden Flattering (a 10-length winner in soft/heavy ground at Cork) into third place in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and had asked her a few serious questions that day when she was beaten two and a half lengths by Perfect Clarity.

Clive Cox’s filly will now tackle a soft surface for the first time in her career but she showed a great attitude at Lingfield, handled the track well too, and could easily have the ability to get involved here.

Give And Take won the Musidora at York pretty convincingly and is going the right way but she was outclassed by Wild Illusion as a two-year-old last August and may struggle a touch.

In conclusion, WILD ILLUSION looks to have an obvious chance and is taken to hold off improved versions of both Magic Wand and Perfect Clarity.
VERDICT:

1st Wild Illusion

2nd Magic Wand

3rd Perfect Clarity

4th Bye Bye Baby

del roy

Just off the phone with Jerry,

he is delighted with the draw of stall 1 for WILD ILLUSION, he was saying the rail is going to be a big help.
He is hoping she comes out well and can keep a third or fourth position coming around the turn,

I would have thought they would go wide with the bad ground and stall 1 was a very bad draw.

I think he has realised she will not be making the running with O'Brien having so much of the field.

Anyway there are nine runners so lets hope we get a place at least.

del roy

Can't understand why Wild Illusion is not shorter than 5/2.

From the first eight in the betting on April 1st she is the only one still in the race.

Tipsters going for her today.

Pricewise ante post--Wild Illusion 12/1

Gerald Delamere--Wild Illusion and Bye bye baby

P. Kealy--Wild Illusion.

My Opinion, if there is not good money for this before the off today, I think it will be unplaced, there has not been a cent for it since the Magical and the Haggas runner was withdrawn. I just find it very strange its still 5/2.

What do others think.

Mgoraf

I think it will be backed well like all of their other runners have been in the classics. Masaar, soliloquy, symbolization

Kauto

del roy wrote: »

Can't understand why Wild Illusion is not shorter than 5/2.

From the first eight in the betting on April 1st she is the only one still in the race.

Tipsters going for her today.

Pricewise ante post--Wild Illusion 12/1

Gerald Delamere--Wild Illusion and Bye bye baby

P. Kealy--Wild Illusion.

My Opinion, if there is not good money for this before the off today, I think it will be unplaced, there has not been a cent for it since the Magical and the Haggas runner was withdrawn. I just find it very strange its still 5/2.

What do others think.

It's trained by the worst organisation training horses. All the evidence suggests that this horse will go backwards form it's last run. They will have more than likely blown her mind since her last run. How anyone could entertain backing her at 5/2 is beyond me.


Appleby a good man to get one to win on debut. Once they are raised in class they turn to putty. By and large Godolphin horses are soft.

bookman2

it looks like a very bad oaks it wouldn't surprise me if any of them win. it deffo wouldn't be for me at 5/2(16/1 is a different story tho!)and as Kauto is after saying appleby's horses tend to win early but then go backwards.

Itziger

bookman2 wrote: »

it looks like a very bad oaks it wouldn't surprise me if any of them win. it deffo wouldn't be for me at 5/2(16/1 is a different story tho!)and as Kauto is after saying appleby's horses tend to win early but then go backwards.

They look a poor bunch, but surely one of 'em will win

del roy

I see Ladcrooks are reporting some hefty bets being put on Wild Illusion but no one else reporting them, strange.

del roy

One filly I was impressed with was Forever Together finished full of running in what looked to me a slowly run trial at Chester on Thursday. They ran each furlong at 13.10 second, Young Rascals race was a furlong further and they ran the furlong in that race at 12.99.
Forever Together got hampered when she try to make her run, lost momentum but got going again very quickly, that's a hard thing to do in a slow run race and if the oaks is run too quick Forever Together will benefit the most.
I see two firms going 12/1 on WILD ILLUSION. That seems fair however I expect her to come on a bundle for the guineas run and think she will go off at the 7/1 mark.


FFS Jerry why didn't you give us the reverse/fc to do.


EPSOM OAKS: Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w 2nd 5/2 At least it placed. 4.4pts returned

61 bets
7 winners
+108.9pts

Well we are having the craic Jerry said the thread would provide just a pity the filly couldn't do the business.

del roy

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1

4.30 Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1

5.15 golden wolf 2pts e/w 8/1

I think it is a significant booking for Mr Hughs to book W.Lordan for Golden Wolf, significant enough for me to break my sabbatical. W.Lordans natural weight is 8st 2LB, according to the racing post the lowest weight he has done in the past 12 months is 8st so he won't be weak as piss in a finish if he has to slog it out at the finish, least there will be no lead in the saddle.

A four yr old who has raced nine times and raced twice at Epsom resulting in two second places. I think a big run is expected with Mr Hughs booking this jockey to do the 8st 4Lb here today.

Regarding the Oaks yesterday, I think our filly was beaten fair and square and a reversal of form is a thing I cannot see, I think had we (I) not got involved in WILD ILLUSION for the Oaks so early in the ante post betting I probably would have went for the winner e/w after the Chester race as she did look good but e/w on a 5/2 yoke when we got on at 16s is not a bad return on the race.

Its all about VALUE as I pointed out on here before, the three and four points we are nicking here and there on the winners/place bets are the difference between winning and losing.
I see someone suggested on here that I needed a minimum of 20% strike rate with winners to just stay in profit, thats bollox.

What you need is, an ability to see when the odds compilers that work for the bookmakers make mistakes on horses that actually have a chance of being involved in the finish of a race. While we are at it another pile of crap is this over staking malarkey, I don't know how many times I have been told " you don't have a clue about staking or holding onto what you have".
Yet when I ask the same people who are telling me what I am doing wrong to give me their next fifty horse bets before they put them on so I can see how successful they are, they mutter crap about this that and the other.
As I said at the beginning of this, I will take everyone's opinion on board as long as it is given to me before the race.

Listen lads if you want to have a small sum at the end of the year then join a fooking savings club, what we are doing here is
GAMBLING.
Its not for the faint hearted or little boys in shorts.
Its GAMBLING.

As always I am weary of people with Gambling problems and it is for this reason I always give the bets out on a points system, I hope people do not think I am promoting Gambling, I am not.

The only difference between me and some other guy who has a daily bet is
I take my betting very very seriously.
I am organized.
I do my homework before I bet.
I record every bet I put on.
I keep a tally on my wins and losses.
I take my betting very very seriously.

Unfortunately for me it is not just a thing where I pick a bet then log on and have a bet, I have to ring half of Dublin just to get €200 on at the right price but I understand, thats the price I pay for being good at what I do.
While starting this thread I hope to instill my ways of Gambling on to others to show, with patience that when the bookmakers make mistakes we (this thread) can capitalise on it.

Please don't get me wrong I know there are serious knowledeable guys on here who probabaly have forgotten more about racing than I will ever learn but they just come on and give there fancies.

What I am trying to do is show/teach people not to win but to bet without losing fortunes.

Do you know why this thread and the first one I started was successful.

Because I don't care whether the 16/1 horse I pick wins or loses.
Of course I care if a combined number of 16/1 shots lose maybe the next ten or twelve bets but individual/single bets, NO and thats the way it should be. Let me explain.

My studying form has increased by approximately an hour a day due to my eagerness/eco/stubberness to avoid giving losers but I just said I didn't care whether it won or lost, ok I said that but thats the way I have to think when I look at a horse thats 16/1, I just have to give it and hope it runs well.
I can't like all the other tipping services out there be looking at horses who are 7 or 8/1 who has been placed four out of his last six races.
One of the main reasons why I fell apart when I went private was I changed my way of thinking about what sort of selection/bet I gave. I did exactly what all the other tipping services did I looked for obvious horses to back, mainly e/w yokes with a string of seconds and thirds, guess what, mainly the fookers didn't place.

Anyway I as promosed will stay here for the year. if your reading this and getting a bit of craic out of it, great.
If you are following, remember

only gamble what you can afford to do without.
only back the horses on this thread for the year and see what way it helps your Gambling
ALWAYS STICK TO THE STAKES ADVISED.

Jerry

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1

4.30 Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1

5.15 golden wolf 2pts e/w 8/1

I think it is a significant booking for Mr Hughs to book W.Lordan for Golden Wolf, significant enough for me to break my sabbatical. W.Lordans natural weight is 8st 2LB, according to the racing post the lowest weight he has done in the past 12 months is 8st so he won't be weak as piss in a finish if he has to slog it out at the finish, least there will be no lead in the saddle.

A four yr old who has raced nine times and raced twice at Epsom resulting in two second places. I think a big run is expected with Mr Hughs booking this jockey to do the 8st 4Lb here today.

Regarding the Oaks yesterday, I think our filly was beaten fair and square and a reversal of form is a thing I cannot see, I think had we (I) not got involved in WILD ILLUSION for the Oaks so early in the ante post betting I probably would have went for the winner e/w after the Chester race as she did look good but e/w on a 5/2 yoke when we got on at 16s is not a bad return on the race.

Its all about VALUE as I pointed out on here before, the three and four points we are nicking here and there on the winners/place bets are the difference between winning and losing.
I see someone suggested on here that I needed a minimum of 20% strike rate with winners to just stay in profit, thats bollox.

What you need is, an ability to see when the odds compilers that work for the bookmakers make mistakes on horses that actually have a chance of being involved in the finish of a race. While we are at it another pile of crap is this over staking malarkey, I don't know how many times I have been told " you don't have a clue about staking or holding onto what you have".
Yet when I ask the same people who are telling me what I am doing wrong to give me their next fifty horse bets before they put them on so I can see how successful they are, they mutter crap about this that and the other.
As I said at the beginning of this, I will take everyone's opinion on board as long as it is given to me before the race.

Listen lads if you want to have a small sum at the end of the year then join a fooking savings club, what we are doing here is
GAMBLING.
Its not for the faint hearted or little boys in shorts.
Its GAMBLING.

As always I am weary of people with Gambling problems and it is for this reason I always give the bets out on a points system, I hope people do not think I am promoting Gambling, I am not.

The only difference between me and some other guy who has a daily bet is
I take my betting very very seriously.
I am organized.
I do my homework before I bet.
I record every bet I put on.
I keep a tally on my wins and losses.
I take my betting very very seriously.

Unfortunately for me it is not just a thing where I pick a bet then log on and have a bet, I have to ring half of Dublin just to get €200 on at the right price but I understand, thats the price I pay for being good at what I do.
While starting this thread I hope to instill my ways of Gambling on to others to show, with patience that when the bookmakers make mistakes we (this thread) can capitalise on it.

Please don't get me wrong I know there are serious knowledeable guys on here who probabaly have forgotten more about racing than I will ever learn but they just come on and give there fancies.

What I am trying to do is show/teach people not to win but to bet without losing fortunes.

Do you know why this thread and the first one I started was successful.

Because I don't care whether the 16/1 horse I pick wins or loses.
Of course I care if a combined number of 16/1 shots lose maybe the next ten or twelve bets but individual/single bets, NO and thats the way it should be. Let me explain.

My studying form has increased by approximately an hour a day due to my eagerness/eco/stubberness to avoid giving losers but I just said I didn't care whether it won or lost, ok I said that but thats the way I have to think when I look at a horse thats 16/1, I just have to give it and hope it runs well.
I can't like all the other tipping services out there be looking at horses who are 7 or 8/1 who has been placed four out of his last six races.
One of the main reasons why I fell apart when I went private was I changed my way of thinking about what sort of selection/bet I gave. I did exactly what all the other tipping services did I looked for obvious horses to back, mainly e/w yokes with a string of seconds and thirds, guess what, mainly the fookers didn't place.

Anyway I as promosed will stay here for the year. if your reading this and getting a bit of craic out of it, great.
If you are following, remember

only gamble what you can afford to do without.
only back the horses on this thread for the year and see what way it helps your Gambling
ALWAYS STICK TO THE STAKES ADVISED.

Jerry

Top notch.

Jayd0g

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1 - 12th

del roy

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1 unp

4.30 Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl

5.15 golden wolf 2pts e/w 8/1 2nd returns 6pts

6pts loss today.

64 bets
7 winners
+102.9pts

Mgoraf

Golden wolf ran into a very well handicapped horse there. Was nicely ahead of the rest of the field

del roy

Mgoraf wrote: »

Golden wolf ran into a very well handicapped horse there. Was nicely ahead of the rest of the field

he sure did.

del roy

4.10 taking risks 12/1 2pts e/w

Nicky says
my two in this could do with a drop of rain but both are very well. Ryan Day picked Taking Risks as he thought he would be less depended on a bit of rain arriving but as I say they are both going well at home and Taking risks price seems a little too big to me.
He has run some good races when he was younger on good ground.

Ladcrooks the only one going 12/1 now.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

4.10 taking risks 12/1 2pts e/w

Nicky says
my two in this could do with a drop of rain but both are very well. Ryan Day picked Taking Risks as he thought he would be less depended on a bit of rain arriving but as I say they are both going well at home and Taking risks price seems a little too big to me.
He has run some good races when he was younger on good ground.

Ladcrooks the only one going 12/1 now.

Hey Del,what day is this one for?

d22ontour

Today at Perth.

sydthebeat

Jayd0g wrote: »

Hey Del,what day is this one for?

16:10 in Perth

del roy

Sorry lads
Jerry told me he was going away and won't be back until Monday so wrongly I assumed there would be no bets until then. This must be info stuff, I think Jery has a mate who has a couple of horses with Nicky.

Lets hope we return to winning ways after the disasterous weekend.

Jayd0g

Thanks lads!

del roy

Looking for a bit of help here.
Is there anyway I can print off this thread.

Thanks.

CH3OH

del roy wrote: »

Looking for a bit of help here.
Is there anyway I can print off this thread.

Thanks.

Thread tools ( just above thread on right)... printable version.. (not sure if that helps)

del roy

4.10 taking risk 2pts e/w 12/1
Perth hosts the richest handicap ever ran at the course so you would expect all the northern trainers to be out in force. N.Richards goes there two handed with LOOKING WELL 13/2 and TAKING RISKS 10/1.

It seems the jockey Ryan Day has decided to ride Taking risks as he has run some good races on goodish ground before.
Well certainly his 2nd to MARKOV last December was no disgrace, Markov on good ground is a very good horse and Taking risks gave him a very good race over a distance that would have being far to short for him. Although Markov did nothing in his next three races he really needs good ground to show how good he is. He has fallen twice however one of the "falls" was not really a fall, Brian Harding slipped off him when he landed after not getting his back feet high enough to clear the fence.

He also won a 3m1f hurdle race on good ground at Carlise albeit a lucky winner as the leader fell at the last but it proves he can handle the good ground.

However I wouldn't put it past Nicky to have LOOKING WELL fit for this and the booking of top jockey is clearly eye catching but I will take a chance on TAKING RISKS. I think he will make a good staying chaser no matter what happens today.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

4.10 taking risk 2pts e/w 12/1
Perth hosts the richest handicap ever ran at the course so you would expect all the northern trainers to be out in force. N.Richards goes there two handed with LOOKING WELL 13/2 and TAKING RISKS 10/1.

It seems the jockey Ryan Day has decided to ride Taking risks as he has run some good races on goodish ground before.
Well certainly his 2nd to MARKOV last December was no disgrace, Markov on good ground is a very good horse and Taking risks gave him a very good race over a distance that would have being far to short for him. Although Markov did nothing in his next three races he really needs good ground to show how good he is. He has fallen twice however one of the "falls" was not really a fall, Brian Harding slipped off him when he landed after not getting his back feet high enough to clear the fence.

He also won a 3m1f hurdle race on good ground at Carlise albeit a lucky winner as the leader fell at the last but it proves he can handle the good ground.

However I wouldn't put it past Nicky to have LOOKING WELL fit for this and the booking of top jockey is clearly eye catching but I will take a chance on TAKING RISKS. I think he will make a good staying chaser no matter what happens today.

Anything to be said for the reverse forecast?

del roy

4.10 taking risk 2pts e/w 12/1
finished 5th ran well,


65 bets
7 winners
+98.9pts

del roy

A few times during a season I come across a bet which I think is a great bet and the bookies have being very generous in offering such odds. I alway stick to the staking system and occasionlly I will go 3pts e/w.

tomorrows bet is such an occasion.

Leicester
5.10 persuing speed 3 pts e/w 10/1

this lightly raced gelding has raced nine times, won four of them and more importantly raced at Leicester twice, winning both of them.The first race he won was a 17 runner affair when he was just rated 57, he was 14/1 and he passed the 3/1fav Covenham on the run in very easily indeed. The comments for ther race were Held up, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead well inside final furlong . He was drawn 12 of 17 this day, the 2nd 3td and 4th were drawn 2 5 4.

Onto the next race running off 7LB higher mark (64) and again the fav in the race was 7/2 Covenham and Persuing speed agian pasted him on the run in with a lenght to spare.
Covenham has won three races since this race.


Onto the next race, up another 6LB bringing his new mark to 70, he went off 3/1fav, here are the comments for the race
Held up behind, ridden and headway over 1f out, led final 100yds, ran on strongly (op 9/4)
Delphie lane who was 2nd in this race has only raced once since this race and won it

Onto his next race which is quite an important one for us. Back to Leicester where only three races back he won off 57, he is now racing off a new career high mark of 75, incidentally his mark tomorrow. He went off 2/1fav and here are the comments for the race.
Held up, headway over 1f out, soon chasing leader, ridden and ran on to lead post (tchd 15/8 and tchd 9/4)

Here is the Anaylsis
Plenty held chances in this fair handicap. They went a good pace and eventually elected to come down the centre.

PURSUING STEED, whose mark had gone up 19lb for recording a hat-trick of handicap wins coming into this, pulled it out of the fire to get up late on and make it a four-timer. Well backed, he was going nowhere at halfway, but came with a withering challenge and Charlie Bennett conjured up a late thrust to get the better of the runner-up. He's a 'hold up and run on strongly' type the handicapper finds it hard to get a grip on and he could improve for an extra furlong too.
Obviously with 17 runners we should get the pace he needs and 10/1 for a horse who has won 45% of his nine races and has been well backed in all four wins, 10/1 may not last long.

Kickham could be a danger, unusual booking for the yard and he is 16/1 which is quite big but I think Persuing speed has a great chance back at a course where he is 2/2

Jockey Charlie Bennett is 2/6 33% wins and 4/6 66% places at Leicester.

Trainer H. Morrision is 2/8 25% wins and 6/8 75% places at Leicester.

Jerry

del roy

A ffs lads
people need to open up some accounts online, powers will just start watching the thread and cut the horse the minute we put it up.
Its 6/1 with powers but still 9/1 with boyles, shop around.

del roy

Just rang Boyles to ask "why are you advertising 9/1 about Persuing speed in the 5.10 tomorrow at Leicester when he is only 15/2.

Not our fault, thats oddschecker.

hawaii501

Still 9s with BetVictor

del roy

hawaii501 wrote: »

Still 9s with BetVictor

Yeah I see that but they are one of my


Dear xxxxx

sorry but we can't take a bet from you but you can play our casino games and the lotto for as much as you care to lose.
This decision will not change, blah blah blah.


The traders deparment
B.Victor.

Heres another one I found

Dear Mr xxxxxxx

Your StanJames.com username is: xxxxxxx

All Stan James accounts are reviewed on a regular basis by our Trading team, and due to betting patterns on this account the decision has been made to close it.

I would make you aware that this decision has been made at the highest level and will not be reversed. Any open bets will be honoured in accordance with our rules, and any outstanding balance will be returned to you via your normal withdrawal method.

Kind regards,

The Stan James Team.



Hi xxxxxxx

We wish to advise you that we are restructuring our approach to bonuses, concessions, Free Bet refunds and Best Odds Guaranteed.


As a result a number of accounts, including yours, will no longer be eligible for bonuses, concessions, free bet refunds or Best Odds Guaranteed of any kind, effective immediately.


This restriction will be included in all future terms and conditions. All other terms and conditions remain the same and we sincerely look forward to your continued custom at Ladbrokes.


Please note any pending bonuses or concessions attached to your account have also been withdrawn.


Kind regards

Ladbrokes Sports Team




Bookmakers me hole. :mad:

del roy

9/1 with Laddies.

Long gone now 6/1 best price in town.

del roy

Jay
did you notice Jerry going head to head with Mr Giggs from across the water today, should be interesting.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

Jay
did you notice Jerry going head to head with Mr Giggs from across the water today, should be interesting.

I did indeed, sticking with Jerry!

Intetesting that the other
Commentators are supporting Jerry's point about the race having a lot of unknowns with it reflected in price setting, lot of potential value yesterday.

See pursuing steed is joint 2nd fave now too. Hoping for a place at least.

del roy

BIG day today lads.

2.20 Grageelagh girl pts win 5/4
5.10 persuing steed 3pts e/w 10/1
7.45 Genetics 2pts e/w 11/1

bookman2

is it a 5 pt win bet on the 2.20?

del roy

sorry bookman yes.