May 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

pauldry

Unlikely to be as there will be another warm spell before June that will get at least 24c but very cold before that so an 11c IMT looks more likely than my 12c non decimal

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT on 11.5 which is 1.3 above normal for the period.

MAX 23.0 and MIN 0.8 (1st Mountdillon) unless anyone spotted anything colder.

PRC was 72% of normal.

SUN 80% of normal (477/600), the two Dublin area locations were above average but other parts of the country with sunshine recorders were quite cloudy during the warm spell (Shannon in between at 94%).

The models (as Pauldry suggests) show a cooler trend at times although I don't see anything very much below normal, just a lot of days between 9 and 12 for mean temperatures, average amounts of rain and sunshine suggested (perhaps a bit cloudy overall) and hints of a warm spell developing towards the end of the run (which is the 24th). So the IMT will probably drift down now and at some point may be as low as 10.5 or so, but it could then recover back into the 11's in the part of May we don't see yet (on the GFS at least).

M.T. Cranium

MIN of -1.2 at Mountdillon on Saturday 12th.

Rikand

Now that the fantasy premierleague season is over, I'm going to have to study the weather contest in the same manner as I study the football.

And if this month is anything to go by, I do love a good 12 point hit right at the start of the gameweek!

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT at 10.7 with this past week rather cool, the average was 9.8 which is 1.1 below normal.

PRC is now 93% of normal with this past week at 113% -- most locations were actually near or a bit below normal but Cork and Valentia were nearly twice normal which more than balanced those out.

SUN is also close to normal now, about 96.5% with this past week at 113% (677/600) matching PRC (if the IMT had been 11.3 that would be freaky).

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT at 10.9(4) with the past week at 11.4, exactly normal for that period.

No changes to previous MAX (23.0) or MIN (-1.2).

PRC at 95% with this past week at 99%, the east and south (Cork east) were generally dry, the west and north were generally wet (some near 200% almost all in the last two days).

SUN also at 95% with this past week at 92% (553/600).

Looking at model trends, the IMT seems likely to rise slowly to end of month values near 12.0; MAX may improve to something around 25, but MIN seems unlikely to change; PRC will drop to around 80% and SUN could improve to about 105%.

M.T. Cranium

New MAX of 23.1 at Shannon yesterday, also worth noting the average sunshine in the contest grid was 14 hours.

pauldry

Moore Park will beat it again today

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Moore Park will beat it again today

Correct pauldry, 23.8c at Moore Park today makes it the warmest day of the year so far in Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

IMT on 11.3 after 25 days, each day that is warm (IMT around 15-16) will add 0.2 to that. It is possible for the IMT to get to our warmest forecasts of 12.4, we shall see. I also expect a higher MAX on Monday or Tuesday, marginally at least.

sdanseo

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

IMT on 11.3 after 25 days, each day that is warm (IMT around 15-16) will add 0.2 to that. It is possible for the IMT to get to our warmest forecasts of 12.4, we shall see. I also expect a higher MAX on Monday or Tuesday, marginally at least.

Pretty consistent maxima of 22-24 on most models for Monday or Tuesday.

Spot maxima could well exceed that and if one happens to be a weather station a few of our MAX forecasts will be "nil points"

M.T. Cranium

Report after four weeks ...

Unfortunately, Mullingar has missing data for 28th, I estimate that the IMT is around 11.8 and this past week about 14.5 which is 2.5 or so above average. With these very warm last three days, the IMT will finish close to 12.3.

MAX climbed to 24.6 on Monday and will likely climb again today as several locations have 25 C at 3 p.m. (and Shannon 26 at 4 p.m. so we know it has to be above 25.5 now). Later reported to be 26.3 C.

MIN remains --1.2 C.

PRC once again estimating Mullingar was only 27% for the week, and most of it fell at Cork which was above normal due to Sunday's torrential downpours in thunderstorms. Everyone else in the grid had almost nothing and based on daily reports I assigned 10% to Mullingar. This drops the monthly PRC to 78% and it could fall as low as 70% if scattered showers the final three days miss the eleven station grid, but we'll say 75% as an estimate for now.

SUN was 150% of normal (902/600) and this boosts the month to 109% with each sunny day pushing that up another 2-3% so we are likely to finish near 115%.

I will edit in some scoring estimates in a minute (can't see the table of forecasts so need to post and check).

==============================================

These would be the scores if the MAX gets to our highest forecast of 26.0 ... and all the other estimates above verified, plus the already established bonus points. I have left the table in order of forecasts. Some of these numbers could change, we don't yet know the exact MAX.

MAX scoring whatever the MAX will go from modified minimum progression -- modified because it appears possible that some forecast will get 19 or 20 points raw score. Modified means you only get half the boost you would otherwise get. It could go to the full boost if nobody has that good a raw score. For this to happen, 26.2 or higher will be needed now.


FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ____ TOTAL

scoring based on _______ 12.3_26.0_-1.2_075_115 __ 23.0

200motels _____________ 24 _ 19*_ 19 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 84
M.T. Cranium ___________24 _ 15*_ 20 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 08 _______ 86
Joe Public ______________24 _ 08*_ 14 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 01 _______ 61
BLIZZARD7 ____________ 25 _ 17*_ 19 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 94
DOCARCH ______________24 _ 06*_ 17 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 06 _______ 70
waterways _____________ 23 _ 18*_ 17 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 09 _______ 77
sryanbruen _____________23 _ 08*_ 18 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 74
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 22 _ 19*_ 18 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 87-12 =75
Pauldry ________________22 _ 16*_ 18 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 76
JCXBXC _______________ 21 _ 18*_ 13 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 77
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 21 _ 13*_ 19 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 79-2 = 77
Dacogawa _____________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 05 _______ 63

Con Sensus ____________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 71

Bsal ___________________21 _ 01*_ 16 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 01 _______ 56
sdanseo _______________ 20 _ 05*_ 16 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 00 _______ 57
Rameire _______________ 19 _ 11*_ 17 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 76
MrSkinner ______________19 _ 08*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 69
Artane2002 ____________ 19 _ 04*_ 19 _ 04 _ 10 ___ 03 _______ 59
Dasa29 ________________18 _ 03*_ 13 _ 04 _ 06 ___ 10 _______ 54
Tae laidir ______________ 18 _ 05*_ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 04 _______ 61
Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 05*_ 19 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 03 _______ 66
Sunflower3 _____________18 _ 03*_ 16 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 57
mickger844posts ________ 18 _ 03*_ 18 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 01 _______ 54
Jpmarn ________________17 _ 08*_ 16 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 09 _______ 68

Normal ________________13 _ 13*_ 17 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 63

John mac ______________ 12 _ 14*_ 18 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 04 _______ 63
_____________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 107 ___ 22.5
M.T. Cranium ___________12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 ___ 21.8
Joe Public ______________12.4 _ 23.9 _ -1.8 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 19.9
BLIZZARD7 ____________ 12.3 _ 25.7 _ -1.3 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 22.3
DOCARCH ______________12.2 _ 23.6 _ -0.9 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 21.2
waterways _____________ 12.1 _ 25.7 _ -1.5 _ 119 _ 116 ___ 22.1
sryanbruen _____________12.1 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 20.5
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 12.0 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0
Pauldry ________________12.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0
JCXBXC _______________ 11.9 _ 25.8 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 11.9 _ 24.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 21.8
Dacogawa _____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.9

Con Sensus ____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0

Bsal __________________ 11.9 _ 22.0 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.1
sdanseo _______________ 11.8 _ 23.0 _ -1.6 _ 094 _ 098 ___ 17.8
Rameire _______________ 11.7 _ 24.4 _ -0.9 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 21.5
MrSkinner ______________11.7 _ 24.0 _ -1.1 _ 098 _ 111 ___ 21.5
Artane2002 ____________ 11.7 _ 22.9 _ -1.3 _ 110 _ 117 ___ 20.5
Dasa29 ________________11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 22.5
Tae laidir ______________ 11.6 _ 23.4 _ -0.3 _ 078 _ 110 ___ 20.8
Kindred Spirit ___________11.6 _ 23.0 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 20.5
Sunflower3 _____________11.6 _ 22.5 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.5
mickger844posts ________ 11.6 _ 22.5 _ -1.4 _ 094 _ 090 ___ 19.8
Jpmarn ________________11.5 _ 24.0 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 22.0

Normal ________________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0

John mac ______________ 11.0 _ 24.6 _ -1.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 20.8
_____________________________________________________________

That is some of the highest scoring I can remember from the past seven years but remember, it's based on estimates that could change (if there were to be some more widespread downpours or a different MAX). (scores are now adjusted for 26.3 MAX)

These scores will be revisited at the end of the month. Not too shabby with an estimate of 94 for BLIZZARD7 and Rikand still has a very respectable score after losing 12 on a late penalty. Due to the use of minimum progression, MAX scores are not likely to change very much if we go with a different leader. (at this point the MAX scores are probably final).

pauldry

Shannon hit 26.3c

Newport also over 26c but is it in contest?

rameire

Feed from met.ie twitter for today.

Some of the maximum temperatures recorded at synoptic stations around the country today:
Shannon Airport: 26.3C
Newport: 26.1C
Markree Castle & Moore Park: 25.7C
Claremorris: 25.3C
Athenry: 24.8C
Finner Camp: 24.7C
Mount Dillon & Belmullet: 24.6C

M.T. Cranium

That 26.3 if correct will boost scores for MAX as reduced benefit rule is negated by raw score of 17.

That being the case, I will adjust the table when I know it's the actual MAX. Makes about 4 points difference for most, knocks 1 or 2 off the higher scores.

Newport would count also, any station that's in the "yesterday's weather" or "latest weather" lists will show up on MS at end of month.

Quite the warm spell anyway.

M.T. Cranium

It just dawned on me that May will not last forever, so here's a link to June's contest:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=107136202#post107136202

M.T. Cranium

Mullingar caught up with their missing data on 28th so now can confirm IMT has reached 12.0 after 29 days. (12.02)

Mean of 16 to 17.5 for 30th-31st would likely end up at 12.3, unlikely to be outside that range. 12.2 and 12.4 are possible though.

Yesterday's IMT was 17.7 C.

rameire

Not a Top score but the Fields of Athenry reached 25.8c today.

M.T. Cranium

I don't think much rain fell in the contest grid these past few days and it has been quite sunny overall, could be a wee transfer of points from BLIZZARD7's account but he can afford it ... we shall see, can get some likely final numbers together by 1800h or so, as we will be waiting to Tuesday 5th for the official data.

M.T. Cranium

IMT stays on 12.3 from 12.34 ... so scoring on that remains the same

MAX 26.3 will keep scoring although will give two closest 20 instead of 19

MIN -1.2 same

PRC works out to 72%, most scores lose 1 point, a couple gain one point.

SUN still looks to be 115%, will need to check the MS for that.

This slightly alters the previously posted scoring table to the following (now in order) ...

Provisional scoring for May, 2018

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ____ TOTAL

scoring based on _______ 12.3_26.3_-1.2_072_115 __ 23.0

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 25 _ 17*_ 19 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 93
M.T. Cranium ___________24 _ 15*_ 20 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 08 _______ 87
200motels _____________ 24 _ 20*_ 19 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 84
waterways _____________ 23 _ 18*_ 17 _ 00 _ 10 ___ 09 _______ 77
JCXBXC _______________ 21 _ 18*_ 13 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 76
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 21 _ 13*_ 19 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 78-2 = 76
sryanbruen _____________23 _ 08*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 75
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 22 _ 20*_ 18 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 87-12 =75
Pauldry ________________22 _ 16*_ 18 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 75
Rameire _______________ 19 _ 11*_ 17 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 75

Con Sensus ____________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 06 _______ 70

DOCARCH ______________24 _ 06*_ 17 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 06 _______ 69
MrSkinner ______________19 _ 08*_ 19 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 68
Jpmarn ________________17 _ 08*_ 16 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 09 _______ 67
Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 05*_ 19 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 _______ 65
Dacogawa ______________21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 04 _ 07 ___ 05 _______ 62
John mac ______________ 12 _ 14*_ 18 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 04 _______ 62

Normal ________________13 _ 13*_ 17 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 06 _______ 62

Joe Public ______________24 _ 08*_ 14 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 01 _______ 60
Tae laidir ______________ 18 _ 05*_ 11 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 04 _______ 60
Artane2002 ____________ 19 _ 04*_ 19 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 03 _______ 58
sdanseo _______________ 20 _ 05*_ 16 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 00 _______ 56
Sunflower3 _____________18 _ 03*_ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 56
Bsal __________________ 21 _ 01*_ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 01 _______ 55
Dasa29 ________________18 _ 03*_ 13 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 10 _______ 53
mickger844posts ________ 18 _ 03*_ 18 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 01 _______ 53
_____________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.1 _ 108 _ 107 ___ 22.5
M.T. Cranium ___________12.4 _ 24.9 _ -1.2 _ 065 _ 130 ___ 21.8
Joe Public ______________12.4 _ 23.9 _ -1.8 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 19.9
BLIZZARD7 ____________ 12.3 _ 25.7 _ -1.3 _ 075 _ 125 ___ 22.3
DOCARCH ______________12.2 _ 23.6 _ -0.9 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 21.2
waterways _____________ 12.1 _ 25.7 _ -1.5 _ 119 _ 116 ___ 22.1
sryanbruen _____________12.1 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 20.5
rikand ___ (-12) ________ 12.0 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 22.0
Pauldry ________________12.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0
JCXBXC _______________ 11.9 _ 25.8 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0
Lumi _____ (-2) ________ 11.9 _ 24.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 100 ___ 21.8
Dacogawa _____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 20.9

Con Sensus ____________ 11.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.1 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 21.0

Bsal __________________ 11.9 _ 22.0 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.1
sdanseo _______________ 11.8 _ 23.0 _ -1.6 _ 094 _ 098 ___ 17.8
Rameire _______________ 11.7 _ 24.4 _ -0.9 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 21.5
MrSkinner ______________11.7 _ 24.0 _ -1.1 _ 098 _ 111 ___ 21.5
Artane2002 ____________ 11.7 _ 22.9 _ -1.3 _ 110 _ 117 ___ 20.5
Dasa29 ________________11.6 _ 23.5 _ -0.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 22.5
Tae laidir ______________ 11.6 _ 23.4 _ -0.3 _ 078 _ 110 ___ 20.8
Kindred Spirit ___________11.6 _ 23.0 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 20.5
Sunflower3 _____________11.6 _ 22.5 _ -0.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 20.5
mickger844posts ________ 11.6 _ 22.5 _ -1.4 _ 094 _ 090 ___ 19.8
Jpmarn ________________11.5 _ 24.0 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 22.0

Normal ________________ 11.1 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 21.0

John mac ______________ 11.0 _ 24.6 _ -1.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 20.8
_____________________________________________________________

Congrats to BLIZZARD7 for an exceptionally high score and 200motels (and MTC) did quite well also. The chase pack in the 70s will hold on to their positions in the annual table which will be added to the thread later. Generally one of the higher scoring months we have seen even though Con and NormaL did not score unusually high.

These scores could change slightly if the MS indicates a need to change the sunshine estimate or any other parameters.

pauldry

have we sussed out con?

As well as Blizzard congrats to one MTC for 87

M.T. Cranium

This would be the annual scoring if no changes required in the May scores ... including the spring totals and points for the four seasons contest.

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to May)

rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ TOTAL _ APR rank ___ Spring total __ points

01 _Pauldry______________ 73 __ 58 __ 89 __ 48 __ 75 ___ 343 ___ 02 _________ 212 ________ 10
02 _Dacogawa ____________71 __ 67 __ 70 __ 67 __ 62 ___ 337 ___ 01 _________ 199 _________ 3
03 _DOCARCH ____________63 __ 62 __ 75 __ 61 __ 69 ___ 330 ___ 04 _________ 205 _________ 6

(03t) _Con Sensus ________ 73 __ 67 __ 69 __ 51 __ 70 ___ 330 ___(05) _________190 _________ 1

04 _Rikand ______________ 66 __ 64 __ 62 __ 61 __ 75 ___ 328 ___ 05 _________ 198 _________ 2
05 _sryanbruen ___________56 __ 71 __ 65 __ 60 __ 75 ___ 327 ___ 06 _________ 200 _________ 4
06 _MrSkinner ____________73 __ 64 __ 72 __ 42 __ 68 ___ 319 ___ 07 _________ 182 _________ --
t07_mickger844posts ______ 75 __ 77 __ 69 __ 42 __ 53 ___ 316 ___ 03 _________ 164 _________ --
t07_waterways ___________ 81 __ 34 __ 51 __ 73 __ 77 ___ 316 ___ 10 _________ 201 _________ 5
09 _BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 __ 46 __ 70 __ 93 ___ 309 ___ 16 _________ 209 _________ 7

(10) NormaL _____________75 __ 52 __ 48 __ 71 __ 62 ___ 308 ___(08) _________181 _________ --

10 _Jpmarn ______________ 71 __ 61 __ 49 __ 57 __ 67 ___ 305 ___ 11 _________ 173 _________ --
t11_sunflower3 ___________ 68 __ 56 __ 63 __ 58 __ 56 ___ 301 ___ 08 _________ 177 _________ --
t11_Tae laidir _____________78 __ 53 __ 63 __ 47 __ 60 ___ 301 ___ 09 _________ 170 _________ --
13 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 __ 52 __ 56 __ 87 ___ 300 ___ 18 _________ 195 _________ 1
14 _Rameire _____________ 52 __ 56 __ 67 __ 49 __ 75 ___ 299 ___ 14 _________ 191 _________ 1
15 _dasa29 ______________ 69 __ 40 __ 83 __ 43 __ 53 ___ 288 ___ 12 _________ 179 _________ --
16 _Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 __ 48 __ 81 __ 60 ___ 286 ___ 13 _________ 189 _________ 1
17 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 __ 47 __ 49 __ 84 ___ 281 ___ 22 _________ 180 _________ --
18 _JCXBXC ______________34 __ 72 __ 54 __ 43 __ 76 ___ 279 ___ 20 _________ 173 _________ --
19 _Bsal _________________63 __ 49 __ 71 __ 38 __ 55 ___ 276 ___ 15 _________ 164 _________ --
20 _sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 61 __ 57 __ 52 __ 56 ___ 271 ___ 17 _________ 165 _________ --
21 _john mac ____________ 48 __ 58 __ 58 __ 42 __ 62 ___ 268 ___ 19 _________ 162 _________ --
22 _Kindred Spirit. ________ 59 __ 56 __ 55 __ 28 __ 65 ___ 263 ___ 21 _________ 148 _________ --
23 _Lumi ________________54 __ 54 __ 62 __ --- __ 76 ___ 246 ___ 23
24 _Artane2002 ___________--- __ --- __ ---__ 59 __ 58 ___ 117 ___ 24
25 _Adam240610 _________ --- __ --- __ 56 __ --- __ xx ___ 056 ___ 25
________________________________________________________________

Four Seasons contest update

(winter and spring seasons points totals)

FORECASTER _________ Winter __ Spring _____ TOTAL to date

Pauldry _______________ 6 ________10 ________ 16
JPmarn ______________ 10 ________ -- ________ 10
Dacogawa _____________ 5 ________ 3 _________ 8
Tae laidir ______________7 ________ -- _________ 7
BLIZZARD7 ____________-- ________ 7 _________ 7

___ NormaL____________7 ________ -- _________ 7

DOCARCH _____________ -- ________6 _________ 6
Waterways ____________ -- ________ 5 _________ 5

___ Con Sensus_________4 ________ 1 _________ 5

mickger844posts _______ 4 ________ -- _________ 4
sryanbruen ___________ -- ________ 4 __________4
MrSkinner _____________3 ________ -- _________ 3
rikand ________________1 ________ 2 __________3
sunflower3 ____________ 2 ________ -- _________ 2
Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ________ -- _________ 1
John mac ______________1 ________ -- _________ 1
M.T. Cranium __________ -- ________ 1 _________ 1
rameire _______________-- ________ 1 _________ 1
Joe Public _____________ -- ________ 1 _________ 1

Congrats to Pauldry who is leading the annual contest and the Four Seasons contest.

M.T. Cranium

The Monthly Summary confirms most of the scoring data, the sunshine came in at 110% rather than 115% (Casement managed 118%), the monthly totals vs 1981-2010 normals always seem to track slightly differently from the weekly numbers and the end of month estimate, so what that means is, if your sunshine prediction was 113 or higher, you lose one point and if 112 or lower you gain one point.

Rather than showing all the May scores again with that slight difference, I am just going to republish the annual scoring with the corrected numbers. The two highest scores go down by one point to 92 (BLIZZARD7) and 86 (MTC) while 200motels goes up to 85.

Here's the slightly corrected annual scoring table and four seasons update.

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to May)

rank _FORECASTER _______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ TOTAL _ APR rank ___ Spring total __ points

01 _Pauldry______________ 73 __ 58 __ 89 __ 48 __ 76 ___ 344 ___ 02 _________ 213 ________ 10
02 _Dacogawa ____________71 __ 67 __ 70 __ 67 __ 63 ___ 338 ___ 01 _________ 200 _________ 5

(03) _ Con Sensus ________ 73 __ 67 __ 69 __ 51 __ 71 ___ 331 ___(05) _________191 _________ 1

03 _DOCARCH ____________63 __ 62 __ 75 __ 61 __ 68 ___ 329 ___ 04 _________ 204 _________ 6
04 _Rikand ______________ 66 __ 64 __ 62 __ 61 __ 74 ___ 327 ___ 05 _________ 197 _________ 2
05 _sryanbruen ___________56 __ 71 __ 65 __ 60 __ 74 ___ 326 ___ 06 _________ 199 _________ 3
06 _MrSkinner ____________73 __ 64 __ 72 __ 42 __ 69 ___ 320 ___ 07 _________ 183 _________ --
07 _mickger844posts ______ 75 __ 77 __ 69 __ 42 __ 54 ___ 317 ___ 03 _________ 165 _________ --
08 _waterways ___________ 81 __ 34 __ 51 __ 73 __ 76 ___ 315 ___ 10 _________ 200 _________ 5

(09) NormaL _____________75 __ 52 __ 48 __ 71 __ 63 ___ 309 ___(08) _________182 _________ --

09 _BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 __ 46 __ 70 __ 92 ___ 308 ___ 16 _________ 208 _________ 7
10 _Jpmarn ______________ 71 __ 61 __ 49 __ 57 __ 68 ___ 306 ___ 11 _________ 174 _________ --
t11_sunflower3 ___________ 68 __ 56 __ 63 __ 58 __ 57 ___ 302 ___ 08 _________ 178 _________ --
t11_Tae laidir _____________78 __ 53 __ 63 __ 47 __ 61 ___ 302 ___ 09 _________ 171 _________ --
13 _Rameire _____________ 52 __ 56 __ 67 __ 49 __ 76 ___ 300 ___ 14 _________ 192 _________ 1
14 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 __ 52 __ 56 __ 86 ___ 299 ___ 18 _________ 194 _________ 1
15 _dasa29 ______________ 69 __ 40 __ 83 __ 43 __ 54 ___ 289 ___ 12 _________ 180 _________ --
16 _Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 __ 48 __ 81 __ 61 ___ 287 ___ 13 _________ 190 _________ 1
17 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 __ 47 __ 49 __ 85 ___ 282 ___ 22 _________ 181 _________ --
18 _JCXBXC ______________34 __ 72 __ 54 __ 43 __ 77 ___ 280 ___ 20 _________ 174 _________ --
19 _Bsal _________________63 __ 49 __ 71 __ 38 __ 56 ___ 277 ___ 15 _________ 165 _________ --
20 _sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 61 __ 57 __ 52 __ 57 ___ 272 ___ 17 _________ 166 _________ --
21 _john mac ____________ 48 __ 58 __ 58 __ 42 __ 63 ___ 269 ___ 19 _________ 163 _________ --
22 _Kindred Spirit. ________ 59 __ 56 __ 55 __ 28 __ 66 ___ 264 ___ 21 _________ 149 _________ --
23 _Lumi ________________54 __ 54 __ 62 __ --- __ 77 ___ 247 ___ 23
24 _Artane2002 ___________--- __ --- __ ---__ 59 __ 57 ___ 116 ___ 24
25 _Adam240610 _________ --- __ --- __ 56 __ --- __ xx ___ 056 ___ 25
________________________________________________________________

Four Seasons contest update

(winter and spring seasons points totals)

FORECASTER _________ Winter __ Spring _____ TOTAL to date

Pauldry _______________ 6 ________10 ________ 16
JPmarn ______________ 10 ________ -- ________ 10
Dacogawa _____________ 5 ________ 5 _________10
Tae laidir ______________7 ________ -- _________ 7
BLIZZARD7 ____________-- ________ 7 _________ 7

___ NormaL____________7 ________ -- _________ 7

DOCARCH _____________ -- ________6 _________ 6
Waterways ____________ -- ________ 5 _________ 5

___ Con Sensus_________4 ________ 1 _________ 5

mickger844posts _______ 4 ________ -- _________ 4
sryanbruen ___________ -- ________ 3 __________3
MrSkinner _____________3 ________ -- _________ 3
rikand ________________1 ________ 2 __________3
sunflower3 ____________ 2 ________ -- _________ 2
Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ________ -- _________ 1
John mac ______________1 ________ -- _________ 1
M.T. Cranium __________ -- ________ 1 _________ 1
rameire _______________-- ________ 1 _________ 1
Joe Public _____________ -- ________ 1 _________ 1

Congrats to Pauldry who is leading the annual contest and the Four Seasons contest.