Migration Megathread

skooterblue2

Odhinn wrote: »

I suggest that you research anti-christian and anti muslim violence in India, myanamar & anti-hindu violence in sri lanka eg

https://www.opendoorsusa.org/christian-persecution/world-watch-list/myanmar/

https://www.christianpost.com/news/christians-india-experience-most-traumatic-persecution-in-10-years-219239/

https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/a-long-history-of-tamil-persecution/

Ahh these fabled Rohingya people in Myanmar? They are Bangladeshi migrant who are interfering with with the local Burmese women and children. Aung San Suu Kyi is well within her right to protect her borders and her people. You have to do a lot to aggravate buddhist

skooterblue2

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

On the other hand if we dont keep reproducing there wont be enough workers to pay pensions because of our increasing ageing population.

We need to raise our population naturally and if the population drops below 1.8 replacement rate then we will be in terminal decline. Germany, italy France and Greece are all about 1.4. They will be gone in two generations.

We really need to review our social structures to protect our national identity

4068ac1elhodqr

skooterblue2 wrote: »

We need to raise our population naturally and if the population drops below 1.8 replacement rate then we will be in terminal decline. Germany, italy France and Greece are all about 1.4. They will be gone in two generations.

We really need to review our social structures to protect our national identity

Good point, and with the rise of automation there will be a scramble for any remaining 'jobs' (if you can call them that), in this new 'gig' economy.

Sure offer visas for Brain Surgens etc (from anywhere), if so needed. But the low and un-skilled certainly won't be paying for anyones pension.

skooterblue2

Briggs Full Sunblock wrote: »

Sure offer visas for Brain Surgens etc (from anywhere), if so needed. But the low and un-skilled certainly won't be paying for anyones pension.

I wouldnt get too excited about all them brain surgeons, my father saw one of those overseas students in the hospital and he didnt have a clue why warfarin was important or what it was. At least they pay 6 times what Irish student pay. Guess Money talks.

Odhinn

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Ahh these fabled Rohingya people in Myanmar? They are Bangladeshi migrant who are interfering with with the local Burmese women and children. Aung San Suu Kyi is well within her right to protect her borders and her people. You have to do a lot to aggravate buddhist

This is incorrect. I also find it disturbing to see what is burmese Buddhist extremist propaganda repeated so uncritically.

I note that you don't address the facts presented, ie the notion that 'its not just the muslims'.

fash

Odhinn wrote: »

This is incorrect. I also find it disturbing to see what is burmese Buddhist extremist propaganda repeated so uncritically.

Might be a controversial source, but there is at least some evidence of that:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2018/05/myanmar-new-evidence-reveals-rohingya-armed-group-massacred-scores-in-rakhine-state/

Phoebas

Briggs Full Sunblock wrote: »

This is a very weak, and indeed uninformed argument. 50% of all current roles today won't exist by 2030. Welcome to the 4thIR.

This is equally weak and uninformed. The idea that half of all jobs that exist today will no longer exist in just 12 years time is scaremongering in the extreme.

Jobs will be lost to automation, bit it's also likely that many of the roles that will exist in 2030 don't exist today.

dublinbuster

Italy starting mass deportations, wont be long before citizens of other EU countries demand the same.

Odhinn

fash wrote: »

Might be a controversial source, but there is at least some evidence of that:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2018/05/myanmar-new-evidence-reveals-rohingya-armed-group-massacred-scores-in-rakhine-state/

There has been wrong done by such groups in reaction, but that doesn't alter the fact of ethnic cleansing on the part of the myanamar government.

4068ac1elhodqr

Phoebas wrote: »

This is equally weak and uninformed. The idea that half of all jobs that exist today will no longer exist in just 12 years time is scaremongering in the extreme.

Jobs will be lost to automation, bit it's also likely that many of the roles that will exist in 2030 don't exist today.

You have to ask yourself what percentage of the 'new roles' that may appear on the scene in 2030 will be suitable for the young, unskilled and semi-literate - typically taken up by many fresh migrants?

Reality is, even today a degree (or full 4yr vocational apprenticeship) only helps (barely) to get a foot in the door. There is a need for constant learning and non-stop skills upgrading. Rights are diminishing no-one in the tech multinationals signs-off on the 37.5hr week any more. The French have been busy protesting for some time now about the end of their union backed 35hr ww.

All major employment think tanks, goverment quangos and independent forecasters recognise that minimum 20%, and more likely up to 50% of today's roles will become redundant. Un/low skilled and manual labour intensive, will be most at risk.

Those that think this 'scaremongering' likely will still have their head in the sand throughout the entire 4IR, until they actually need to join the campainers for their UBI share, from the pension pots.

4068ac1elhodqr

dublinbuster wrote: »

Italy starting mass deportations, wont be long before citizens of other EU countries demand the same.

They gave a speech in Sicily yesterday suggesting the 'party is over'. Italy is still considering dumping the Euro and is favourite to leave the EU next, ahead of Greece.

Yesterday also, an anti-immigration party wins the Slovenian election.

Last week, Austria issued new criteria that new welfare recipients must pass German language tests in order to receive normal payments.

The sad thing is all this (and brexit of course) could have been avoided by the EU taking a more structured and sensible approach to mass migration over the last decade.

Normal migration is extremely benefical to everyone, but abnormal mass illegal migration (often run by criminal traffickers) is not going to help anyone going forward.

dublinbuster

Arrogance and hubris will be the downfall of the EU.
The politicians are going against the wishes of the public, it will eventually bite them in the ass.
Unless of course this angering the EU public is part of a plan?
Stir up the public, for nefarious reasons, who knows the true end game

weisses

Briggs Full Sunblock wrote: »

They gave a speech in Sicily yesterday suggesting the 'party is over'. Italy is still considering dumping the Euro and is favourite to leave the EU next, ahead of Greece.

Yesterday also, an anti-immigration party wins the Slovenian election.

Last week, Austria issued new criteria that new welfare recipients must pass German language tests in order to receive normal payments.

The sad thing is all this (and brexit of course) could have been avoided by the EU taking a more structured and sensible approach to mass migration over the last decade.

Normal migration is extremely benefical to everyone, but abnormal mass illegal migration (often run by criminal traffickers) is not going to help anyone going forward.

And dumping the euro and leaving the EU is ? ... Im afraid the term populism is gonna be a synonym for stupidity

Phoebas

Briggs Full Sunblock wrote: »

You have to ask yourself what percentage of the 'new roles' that may appear on the scene in 2030 will be suitable for the young, unskilled and semi-literate - typically taken up by many fresh migrants?

Reality is, even today a degree (or full 4yr vocational apprenticeship) only helps (barely) to get a foot in the door. There is a need for constant learning and non-stop skills upgrading.

I wouldn't have thought that moving from an economy based on low skilled and semi literate workers to one based on education and skills is a bad thing, but no doubt there will continue to be winners and losers.

If you look at the roles often done by migrant workers (care workers and other jobs that require one to one interaction and trades and other jobs that require a high degree of manual dexterity) these are the jobs that are likely to be impacted less by automation, so I wouldn't be worried too much by the plight of future migrant workers.

4068ac1elhodqr

weisses wrote: »

And dumping the euro is ?

Controlling ones own currency, pretty much what the UK did whilst in the EU, but also allowed for a less painful (but still messy) full exit.

weisses

dublinbuster wrote: »

Arrogance and hubris will be the downfall of the EU.
The politicians are going against the wishes of the public, it will eventually bite them in the ass.
Unless of course this angering the EU public is part of a plan?
Stir up the public, for nefarious reasons, who knows the true end game

Ireland is in such a bad place since they joined the EU ... right ?

weisses

Briggs Full Sunblock wrote: »

Controlling ones own currency, pretty much what the UK did whilst in the EU, but also allowed for a less painful (but still messy) full exit.

Sure .. And how do you think the markets are gonna look at that scenario ?

Winning elections is one thing ... responsible governing is another

4068ac1elhodqr

Phoebas wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought that moving from an economy based on low skilled and semi literate workers to one based on education and skills is a bad thing, but no doubt there will continue to be winners and losers.

If you look at the roles often done by migrant workers (care workers and other jobs that require one to one interaction and trades and other jobs that require a high degree of manual dexterity) these are the jobs that are likely to be impacted less by automation, so I wouldn't be worried too much by the plight of future migrant workers.

A highly skilled literate workforce is always going to outperform a low-skilled workforce.

Yes certain vocational trades such as plumbing which are by their nature difficult to automate, due to complex dexterity and skills will always be in demand.

The care industry also by it's nature requires high emotional intelligence. (Although multi sensory robotics will make in roads here also).

But stacking sheleves, washing, warehousing, driving (longer term), labouring, maintence, cooking etc etc... don't require very high EIQ and could be very easy to replace via automation.

4068ac1elhodqr

weisses wrote: »

Ireland is in such a bad place since they joined the EU ... right ?

Maybe check back after EU tax harmonisation occurs. 12.5% is very attractive in the single market, but will the party last forever?
Also check back after full brexit occurs, could get messy for a while.

4068ac1elhodqr

weisses wrote: »

Sure .. And how do you think the markets are gonna look at that scenario ?

Winning elections is one thing ... responsible governing is another

That's probably up to their (democratically elected) representatives to decide and make policy upon. Whatever was in their manifesto(s) their population seems to favour it even if results in some financial hardship for a time.

dublinbuster

weisses wrote: »

Ireland is in such a bad place since they joined the EU ... right ?

It was a great party, but getting messy now, time to say goodbye, leave the clean up for someone else

Odhinn

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Ahh these fabled Rohingya people in Myanmar? They are Bangladeshi migrant who are interfering with with the local Burmese women and children. Aung San Suu Kyi is well within her right to protect her borders and her people. You have to do a lot to aggravate buddhist

In certain cases, all you have to be is a different ethnicity or religion eg
https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/mounting-religious-violence-in-sri-lanka/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Trincomalee_massacres
https://www.persecution.org/2018/03/07/christians-sri-lanka-call-end-anti-muslim-violence/

weisses

Briggs Full Sunblock wrote: »

That's probably up to their (democratically elected) representatives to decide and make policy upon. Whatever was in their manifesto(s) their population seems to favour it even if results in some financial hardship for a time.

you clearly haven't a clue how the financial markets are operating

James Brown

dublinbuster wrote: »

It was a great party, but getting messy now, time to say goodbye, leave the clean up for someone else

Said every outgoing Irish government ever.

4068ac1elhodqr

weisses wrote: »

you clearly haven't a clue how the financial markets are operating

It's not the markets or anyone else that will decide, it's the Italians - if they want to leave the Euro.

The can call a referendum or whatever on it, and the people and elected represenatives can decide. - If they want to continue real (inflation-adjusted) per-capita GDP which is 'lower now' than the start of the euro-experiment back in '98.

Was Brexit prevented by an Fx dive or FTSE waterfall? Nope.

ancapailldorcha

Back on topic, please.

James Brown

The sad thing is there's more of a movement and appetite to oust or keep out immigrants than there is to hold the world financial cartels to task, but I suppose that's the plan.

fash

Odhinn wrote: »

There has been wrong done by such groups in reaction, but that doesn't alter the fact of ethnic cleansing on the part of the myanamar government.

Honestly don't know myself- but are you sure that the Burmese started it? The government says they didn't start it- they only responded. That is at least as believable as the contrary. Happy to be corrected though

Odhinn

fash wrote: »

Honestly don't know myself- but are you sure that the Burmese started it? The government says they didn't start it- they only responded. That is at least as believable as the contrary. Happy to be corrected though

The Burmese government has frequently clashed with ethnic and relgious minorities, the christian Karen people bearing the brunt of it for many years. They, however, had the numbers to fight back. The rohinga have been subjected to intermittent persecution for decades, these days led ostensibly by ultra nationalist monks and the army.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/may/08/buddhist-extremists-anti-muslim-mandalay-ma-ba-tha?CMP=fb_gu

ancapailldorcha

One off-topic and one low standard post deleted.