Exit poll: The post referendum thread. No electioneering.

c68zapdsm5i1ru

eviltwin wrote: »

Eh, what do you expect me to do Bella? They are responsible for their own actions, I'm not their keeper.

So many are returning so you can bet there will be a lot of Nos in that.

If it bothers you then complain but as we saw with SSM it's unlikely to have any impact

It would only bother me if there was a small margin between Yes and No.

What does annoy me is the hypocrisy of constantly complaining about 'lies' and 'dishonesty' from the No side, and then being quite happy for family members to flout the law in order to cast a Yes vote, in fact almost boasting about it on here.

Anyhow, this is probably pulling the thread off topic.

seamus

I would also just like to highlight this post from the SSM thread: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95591315&postcount=9026

Fncking nailed it.

Also, Rob to his credit got it even more spot on: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95588391&postcount=8819

padd b1975

Adamocovic wrote: »

Probably been posted but first Exit Polls will be announced on the Late Late Show tonight..... leaving Ryan with the duties *shudders*

If he doesn't do a drum roll on his desk beforehand, I'll be very disappointed.

PhoenixParker

Was there a similar poll done on the SSM referendum?
Would love to compare the boards results.

Hitman3000

_Dara_ wrote:

Not deleted, it’s still there.

Thanks for that I couldn't find it when I searched again.

Mr. CooL ICE

Because the boards demographic doesn't represent the country as a whole, you could even double the Nos to compensate and it would still only be 67:33.

Mint Sauce

Basq wrote: »

Voted Yes. Easiest vote ever!

Also voted yes. One of most difficult votes ever.

o1s1n

Love both Drogheda is a parody

Loving Both Drogheda
Loving Both Drogheda
@LoveBothDrog
·
50s
Ok ok we've all had a good laugh but this is clearly a parody page. Now you need to go out and vote #YES! To all the pro life lunatics who ferociously retweeted everything we posted and DMd us offering donations you are absolute lunatics #repealthe8th

circadian

Cracking away at 81% repeal on the Journal poll as well, currently around 3000 votes there.

Adamocovic

Would be absolutely amazed if the results were anywhere near as one-sided as the poll here.

I reckon this will be a very close one. A lot of people I've talked to are expecting a landslide Yes win, based mostly on the presence of the Yes campaign online and in the media. I wouldn't be as sure. I know a lot of people who I assumed were voting Yes based on previous opinions and views they hold but actually are voting No, and just avoided getting involved in any debate.

Now maybe I'm wrong and this walks home but I have a feeling tomorrow will be very interesting when the results come out.

bladespin

Will be voting yes on way home from work, really think this will be closer than imagined though, have already heard a couple of the younger lads here determining to vote no, evidently not as enlightened as some.

seamus

Dole Scrounging Vegan Crossfitter wrote: »

Because the boards demographic doesn't represent the country as a whole, you could even double the Nos to compensate and it would still only be 67:33.

A Yes win will still all come down to turnout. I'm optimistic for 66%, but you never really know until the polls have closed.

RobertKK

How did I vote....from 2 Unlimited...

No no, no no no no, no no no no, no no there's no limit!
No no, no no no no, no no no no, no no there's no limit!

Galwayguy35

Voted Yes.

82 people had voted before me which isn't bad for a rural village at 12.30 in the day, unfortunately most of them were probably older folk who could be No voters.

revelman

circadian wrote: »

Cracking away at 81% repeal on the Journal poll as well, currently around 3000 votes there.

The Journal asks this question:

So today we’re asking, do you think Ireland will repeal or retain the Eighth Amendment?

This is not the same as asking if you voted Yes or No. I can imagine that many No voters will think that Yes will win.

farmchoice

Adamocovic wrote: »

Would be absolutely amazed if the results were anywhere near as one-sided as the poll here.

I reckon this will be a very close one. A lot of people I've talked to are expecting a landslide Yes win, based mostly on the presence of the Yes campaign online and in the media. I wouldn't be as sure. I know a lot of people who I assumed were voting Yes based on previous opinions and views they hold but actually are voting No, and just avoided getting involved in any debate.

Now maybe I'm wrong and this walks home but I have a feeling tomorrow will be very interesting when the results come out.

it absolutely will not be a landslide win, if it were to be 55/45 then that would be considered a pretty large margin for yes, if no get their vote out then it will be 1-2% either way.

personally i think yes will carry it and i thing they will do better than expected and it will be closer to 55% yes.

dan1895

Voted Yes as did the missus.

Voted Yes.

Cautiously optimistic Yes will win but it will be close. A good few constituencies will probably have a No majority but am hoping the constituencies voting Yes will do so by bigger margins.

Adamocovic

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Voted Yes.

82 people had voted before me which isn't bad for a rural village at 12.30 in the day, unfortunately most of them were probably older folk who could be No voters.

Can't wait to see the demographic breakdown. My parents Skype'd me yesterday and both were Yes-voting, I'll admit it caught me by surprise, especially my religious mother.

The biggest surprise was a mid-20s friend who is very vocal about her support of feminism told me she was voting No.

It's one that I've noticed can crush the stereotypes of what way you think people will vote.

farmchoice

Deleted User wrote: »

Voted Yes.

Cautiously optimistic Yes will win but it will be close. A good few constituencies will probably have a No majority but am hoping the constituencies voting Yes will do so by bigger margins.

the majority of constituencies will probably vote no but as it comes down to total votes the large urban areas should carry it.

revelman

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Voted Yes.

82 people had voted before me which isn't bad for a rural village at 12.30 in the day, unfortunately most of them were probably older folk who could be No voters.

I'm really not convinced about all of this Old versus Young stuff, urban v rural, male v female etc.

It was really interesting to dig down into the IPSOS/MRBI data a few weeks ago. It showed, for example, that older women were far more likely to vote NO but with older men it was a 50/50 split. It also showed a significant minority of young people voting No. It also totally demolished the myth that you see in some activist social media accounts that working class areas are voting YES. The poll showed that the more well off areas tended towards Yes while the less well off areas tended towards NO. There is so much ideology (not only on gender but also Marxist views) mixed up with the narratives people are spinning.

My personal view is that it will be a Yes vote about 55%. But I really do think that we need to give all of the identity politics stuff a rest. People are in the end individuals who will make up their own minds. We may be able to identify trends within categories but they are only trends!

Grayditch

Yes.

I'd love to see Ireland progress.

Trasna1

AtomicHorror wrote: »

If they lived here before and plan to, even possibly, again, they have a right and would be fools not to take an interest in their home.

What I suspect you don't like is that the people open-minded enough to see the world are much much more likely to vote yes.

No, they do not have a right.
If you do not meet the residency rules you shouldn't participate, even if you have a polling card and no matter how passionate you feel.

seamus

Adamocovic wrote: »

Can't wait to see the demographic breakdown. My parents Skype'd me yesterday and both were Yes-voting, I'll admit it caught me by surprise, especially my religious mother.

The biggest surprise was a mid-20s friend who is very vocal about her support of feminism told me she was voting No.

It's one that I've noticed can crush the stereotypes of what way you think people will vote.

I do think lived experience plays a massive part in the abortion debate.

People who've been through the "reproductive" years will have a far broader understanding of exactly what pregnancy and child-rearing involves and will have plenty of personal stories - first and second-hand - that illustrate just how difficult and complicated it is.

Younger voters by comparison will have a less mature extent of experience and may be more easily swayed by facile arguments.

Hotblack Desiato

Prediction - Yes 58%-60% (ten days ago I would have said it was on a knife edge)

Turnout 68%-70% which would be very high for a referendum.

Trasna1

Adamocovic wrote: »

Would be absolutely amazed if the results were anywhere near as one-sided as the poll here.

I reckon this will be a very close one. A lot of people I've talked to are expecting a landslide Yes win, based mostly on the presence of the Yes campaign online and in the media. I wouldn't be as sure. I know a lot of people who I assumed were voting Yes based on previous opinions and views they hold but actually are voting No, and just avoided getting involved in any debate.

Now maybe I'm wrong and this walks home but I have a feeling tomorrow will be very interesting when the results come out.

Tonight. Rte are doing an exit poll of 3000 voters. With a sample size that large it should be pretty accurate.

We will have a very good idea of the result at 10:01 tonight

seamus

revelman wrote: »

The Journal asks this question:

So today we’re asking, do you think Ireland will repeal or retain the Eighth Amendment?

This is not the same as asking if you voted Yes or No. I can imagine that many No voters will think that Yes will win.

This is known as a "wisdom of the crowd" poll, which has in recent times proven itself a more useful benchmark of certain kinds of questions. That is, when you ask them a question about other people, people are less likely to tell you what they want to hear or what they think you want to hear and are more likely to be honest.

QueenRizla

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What's the point sending a notification the person no longer lives there . That's the entire point. If your no longer live at the address you're registered you should assume your not registered and transfer your vote to your new address.

Because if it’s their parents address they will get it same way they get their voting card.

revelman

seamus wrote: »

This is known as a "wisdom of the crowd" poll, which has in recent times proven itself a more useful benchmark of certain kinds of questions. That is, when you ask them a question about other people, people are less likely to tell you what they want to hear or what they think you want to hear and are more likely to be honest.

I understand. But wisdom of crowds methods were completely wrong when it came to Trump and Brexit. They work under certain circumstances but not all.

C__MC

You would expect the cities to carry the yes vote to victory.

farmchoice

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Prediction - Yes 58%-60% (ten days ago I would have said it was on a knife edge)

Turnout 68%-70% which would be very high for a referendum.

if turnout goes over 65% then i would suggest that pretty much every percentage point over that will go to the yes side.

Galwayguy35

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Voted Yes.

82 people had voted before me which isn't bad for a rural village at 12.30 in the day, unfortunately most of them were probably older folk who could be No voters.

Hehe. Lovely insight right there. This democracy stuff can be very tough. Don't worry, so far 81% of After Hours voters voted 'Yes'. This will be replicated across the state...

bleary

Yes I think this yes voters are young. No voters are old is simplistic . I've spoken to groups of lads in their 20s and 30s all voting no. Apparently in a backlash to feminism. My mam told me all her mass crew are voting yes. I think they see a broader picture. They remember the first referendum and voted for it. They've lost faith in groups telling them their world will collapse unless they do what they're told.

Fr_Dougal

RobertKK wrote: »

How did I vote....from 2 Unlimited...

No no, no no no no, no no no no, no no there's no limit!
No no, no no no no, no no no no, no no there's no limit!

Interesting you should quote them, a song about freedom:

No no limits, we'll reach for the sky!
No valley to deep, no mountain too high
No no limits, won't give up the fight
We do what we want and we do it with pride.

I voted Yes.

farmchoice

Trasna1 wrote: »

Tonight. Rte are doing an exit poll of 3000 voters. With a sample size that large it should be pretty accurate.

We will have a very good idea of the result at 10:01 tonight

i heard tubirdy mention on the radio this morning that they will be having the exit poll on the late late at 11.30pm so its possible that RTE are actually going to hold it back until then to force us all to watch the late late!!!!

Billy86

Hitman3000 wrote: »

LoveBothDrogheda had a callout for volunteers to act as security and check for ID's at polling stations. The tweet was deleted but not before being report to the Gaurds multiple times. I have a screenshot of the tweet but can't post it here.

Well as it turns out...

https://twitter.com/LoveBothDrog/status/999978070999273474

thecommander

superman28 wrote: »

Amazingly I can't vote.. I was deleted from the Fingal Register. (their words) just found out yesterday.

Apparently, my parents filled out a form stating that its just the 2 of them living at their address (true) last year. So my name was taken off the Fingal register,, I was not notified of this... , Only when my voting card didn't arrive at my parents house did I check,, quickly tried to sort it out,, but was too late as cards arrived after cut off point of May 8th... lady said in Fingal Co Co there are loads of similar cases.. as you can imagine f**king fuming..

How would you be notified if you don't live at that address any more and haven't given them your new one?

Hitman3000

Billy86 wrote:

Well as it turns out...

Showing my age regards Twiiter and my lack of recognising parody.

uptherebels

Billy86 wrote: »

Well as it turns out...

https://twitter.com/LoveBothDrog/status/999978070999273474

Poor attempt at reverse psychology. Why not wait till after the vote

Arghus

I voted Yes.

It's about time Ireland grew up and started dealing with reality, instead of being in thrall to some religious dogma.

revelman

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Showing my age regards Twiiter and my lack of recognising parody.

Maybe it is my age too but in what way is parody like this helpful? I understand the role that parody played in East Germany during the 1980s, for example. But what kind of 'parody' pretends that one side is seeking to illegally prevent people from voting? I really see this as unhelpful and divisive. All of social media (barring boards of course ) should just shut up and leave people vote. We will all need to come together tomorrow after the vote.

Rossie11

No

Wife voted yes as did few of her friends all of who's husbands all voted No
30-40s age group

_Dara_

Just voted Yes.

Turnout at my station was at 17-18% at 1pm.

We were the only souls there though.

munsterlegend

I voted no.referendums much quicker than general elections to get the job done.

freshpopcorn

My father Yes in the end. He is a tad religious and wouldn't love abortion being on demand.
He says doctors should just be able to look after women without all this fuss and it's a complete waste of money which could be better spent.

Nettle Soup

I proudly voted Yes with a big smile on my face!

I hear the turnout is high. I think this great weather will help the Yes vote too.

AllForIt

OP needs to add abstained to the poll.

Moanyhole

Got up at 7am to vote today.

Lady had said it had been a lot busier than they expected it to be.


There will be 3 yes votes from my house. My husband, my daughter and me.

Galwayguy35

Deleted User wrote: »

Hehe. Lovely insight right there. This democracy stuff can be very tough. Don't worry, so far 81% of After Hours voters voted 'Yes'. This will be replicated across the state...

I don't see anything wrong with my original post, of course people can vote either way but each side wants their own to win.

Hitman3000

revelman wrote:

Maybe it is my age too but in what way is parody like this helpful? I understand the role that parody played in East Germany during the 1980s, for example. But what kind of 'parody' pretends that one side is seeking to illegally prevent people from voting? I really see this as unhelpful and divisive. All of social media (barring boards of course ) should just shut up and leave people vote. We will all need to come together tomorrow after the vote.

To be honest I can't answer your question regarding parody. Social Media however is deeply engrained in society for too long now for it not to have an impact on political and social matters. Agree with you regards coming together but I don't think there will be an issue , the most vocal on either side tend to only mix with others who share there views. The majority held their counsel and have or will vote as they see fit with no fanfare.