Could Italy collapse the euro?

yrreg0850

DubInTheWest wrote: »

The debate will rock on whether someone says the euro should collapse or if it should stay. My personal opinion is let it collapse. England was right to get out and keep the sterling.


We got it up the gicker while Mrs Merkel stroked our governments ego, .

At that time merkel had her lapdog --Enda.


How about Eiexit

emo72

yrreg0850 wrote: »

How about Eiexit

Irexit sounds better. Leaving the EU, and sounds like I wrecks it. Which works even better!

4068ac1elhodqr

jm08 wrote: »

Why would they jump ship to another country in the Single Market if there is tax harmonisation?

If you're exporting any goods to mainland europe, it's cheaper to set up shop there, rather than on an Island, off another (non-eu) Island in the outer Western reaches of Europe.

Jim2007

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The euro is a disaster for the Mediterranean countries and may well be a disaster for us all

Absolutely BS. It's a currency that is all. Government policy and people's behaviour is what makes or break an economy. It if were simply the cause of a currency, then it would be equally bad or good for all.

Wanderer78

Jim2007 wrote: »

Absolutely BS. It's a currency that is all. Government policy and people's behaviour is what makes or break an economy. It if were simply the cause of a currency, then it would be equally bad or good for all.

our economies are not all the same, they are highly complex beasts, it is in fact this misunderstanding, among-st other things of course, that is leading to these issues, joe stigliz has written very well about the issues underlining the euro

Leonard Hofstadter

So much rhetoric, so little data or facts to back up the rhetoric by several posters here. Taken straight out of the Trump and Brexit playbook.

Icepick

Wanderer78 wrote: »

There's no conclusive evidence to support austerity actually benefits society, mark Blyth has done some great research on this

I said economic reform. Public expenditure did not necessarily need to lowered, but it should have been redirected to infrastructure.
Also the public sector is wasteful so driving efficiencies would save money and improve the service. Of course those who don't want to change would have to cop on or leave.

jm08

Addyson Small Neighborhood wrote: »

If you're exporting any goods to mainland europe, it's cheaper to set up shop there, rather than on an Island, off another (non-eu) Island in the outer Western reaches of Europe.

Well, Intel has already invested 10 bn in its plant in Leixlip over the last 25 years, I can't see them upping sticks. Similarly with Apple in Cork, the only Apple owned manufacturing plant that oversees Chinese manufacturing. Can't see them upping sticks either because of shipping difficulties.

The positive about being on the western edge of Europe means that Ireland is well away from Eastern Europe which is where most the instability is. FDI companies like stable countries to invest in as do their employees want to live in such countries.

4068ac1elhodqr

jm08 wrote: »

Well, Intel has already invested 10 bn in its plant in Leixlip over the last 25 years, I can't see them upping sticks. Similarly with Apple in Cork, the only Apple owned manufacturing plant that oversees Chinese manufacturing. Can't see them upping sticks either because of shipping difficulties.

The positive about being on the western edge of Europe means that Ireland is well away from Eastern Europe which is where most the instability is. FDI companies like stable countries to invest in as do their employees want to live in such countries.

The set up for the very low corp tax, regardless of shipping difficulties. But if the tax rate should double to EU average, would they still feel the same, or use it (and brexit) as a handy 'logistics excuse' to head off elsewhere.

Also, wasn't there something in The Paradise Papers showing two of Apple’s Irish subsidiaries, AOI and ASI, processing a changing tax residency to Jersey?

After the 'small matter' of tax payments in Ireland (you may have heard it on the news at some stage over the last couple of years). Jersey (a popular tax haven) is a UK crown dependency, makes most of its own laws and free from much of the EU legislation.

Western European Islands are fine, Estonia still has the fastest internet, outside of S.Korea. Bulgarian car manufacturing seems also to have picked up of late.

Kermit.de.frog

The reason the Italian president did what he did, without doubt on strong advice from Berlin and Brussels, in my opinion is that they know Italy could very easily be locked out of raising the money it needs to keep the show on the road.


If Italy is forced to go cap in hand for assistance from Europe and the IMF in the coming months we are going to be in a world of trouble.


Interesting to see if the panic in Italian sovereign debt eases off or accelerates in the coming days. The prospect of an election being a proxy referendum on the euro will keep things very volatile.

Then there is Spain and Portugal too - both are also being effected. "Club Med".

oscarBravo

Addyson Small Neighborhood wrote: »

But if the tax rate should double to EU average...

Why would it do that?

4068ac1elhodqr

oscarBravo wrote: »

Why would it do that?

Small thing called Harmonisation, a very popular ambition from the leaders of the EU. How can Italy's broken economy featuring 27.9% CT, compete with 12.5%?

oscarBravo

Addyson Small Neighborhood wrote: »

Small thing called Harmonisation, a very popular ambition from the leaders of the EU. How can Italy's 27.9% CT, compete with 12.5%.

That's not what harmonisation is. Direct taxes aren't an EU competence, and can't become one without a treaty change ratified by all the member states.

jimmycrackcorm

emo72 wrote:

Back in the day I was offered a credit card with 25k on it. I already had one with a 3 k limit. I didn't want the debt. The bank rang me up and asked why I didn't come in and sign for the 25k card! Who the feck was pumping in that money to the banks that they were basically forcing us to spend it? It was madness lads, madness.

In the same period German banks weren't or don't hand out the same credit facilities, they are very financially prudent.

I recall the German ambassador expressing surprise at the volume of new cars being sold here at one point in comparison to Germany, which was the country making many of them.

4068ac1elhodqr

oscarBravo wrote: »

That's not what harmonisation is. Direct taxes aren't an EU competence, and can't become one without a treaty change ratified by all the member states.

Yes, funny Ireland (12.5%) and Hungry (9%) released a joint statement objecting proposals before, but the EU's tax commissioner Pierre Moscovici said in November that the Commission was considering using 'extraordinary powers' to 'strip EU states of their veto power on tax matters' to break resistance over blocked legislation.

jimmycrackcorm

jm08 wrote:

Well, Intel has already invested 10 bn in its plant in Leixlip over the last 25 years, I can't see them upping sticks. Similarly with Apple in Cork, the only Apple owned manufacturing plant that oversees Chinese manufacturing. Can't see them upping sticks either because of shipping difficulties.

There's only a limited lifespan for their chip manufacturing facilities. Continual investment is required and were probably more at wish to losing out on that to Israel instead of the EU.

I don't see our tax rate as a huge issue in Europe. Our base is small, it's the loopholes such as the Apple example that are the problem.

4068ac1elhodqr

Aside from a future Federal EU state looking towards a CCCTB (Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base).

Another proposal (from Macron) was to tax digital companies based on revenues generated in EU countries.
So someone in Poland buys Goo-Adwords for the Latvian market, that end of year Digital Purchase Order is taxed over in Latvia, and not one of the many tax friendly Islands.

Anyway, after Brexit should all schools make French & German compulsary?
Norwegian and Swedish are the easiest for English speakers, French is 8th, not sure about German.

A hyperloop vacum transport tube Brittany might also be an idea.

Kermit.de.frog

I fail to see what any of this has to do with the political crisis in Italy and it's threat to the eurozone

ancapailldorcha

Indeed. Back on topic please.

maccored

listermint wrote: »

Doomed to fail.. but we are the fastest growing economy in Europe, perhaps the world ?

Yes were having it bad here with full motorways because our unemployment is ridiculously low.

Yes we have housing problems and other things but i dont think the Euro is one of them. Some utter drivel in this thread all the same.

im not too sure what irelands present condition has to do with Italy collapsing the euro? IF it does so, we're ****ed - no matter how it looks like we're currently doing. In fact, that reply reminds me on the kind of thing you might have read on boards in 2007 (things like 'soft landing' spring to mind)

Kermit.de.frog

10 year borrowing costs for Italy have surged past 2.7% heading for 2.8% this morning. The entire yield curve is being hit. The 2 year yield is up from .9% yesterday to 1.9% this morning...which is a massive move.

Could come back in later in the day but, yeah, damage - real damage being done to Italian savers and the country's debt sustainability which is what of course the President was trying to avoid.

ECB could be in soon buying up the bonds to keep a lid on things.

https://twitter.com/APetimezas/status/1001351343183941632

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/PensionCraft/status/1001352024733167617

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/CNBCJou/status/1001358195879825408

listermint

maccored wrote: »

im not too sure what irelands present condition has to do with Italy collapsing the euro? IF it does so, we're ****ed - no matter how it looks like we're currently doing. In fact, that reply reminds me on the kind of thing you might have read on boards in 2007 (things like 'soft landing' spring to mind)

I see you just waltzed in here and hand picked that comment out with zero context .I could make fun of your laziness but ill choose not to.

Another poster had suggested we irexit too as the euro had done nothing but bad for us and Italy.





So please a bit of cop in future

Kermit.de.frog

Unbelievable the movement in Italy's borrowing costs so far today. The yield curve is actually inverted now.


10 year borrowing costs have gone way past 3% and are continuing to rise.

EDIT: approaching 3.5%...


It's the biggest single day rise in the country's cost of money since 1992...so far.


I for one welcome the new and improved Eurozone debt crisis.

maccored

listermint wrote: »

I see you just waltzed in here and hand picked that comment out with zero context .I could make fun of your laziness but ill choose not to.

Another poster had suggested we irexit too as the euro had done nothing but bad for us and Italy.





So please a bit of cop in future

a bit of cop in the future? "waltzed in here" - what are you on about. i've a right to reply as much as anyone else, and I read the thread. I suggest you take your own advice

listermint

maccored wrote: »

a bit of cop in the future? "waltzed in here" - what are you on about. i've a right to reply as much as anyone else, and I read the thread. I suggest you take your own advice

You read nothing clearly if you didn't see what I was responding to. Right to reply would mean you've bothered with context.

Wanderer78

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I for one welcome the new and improved Eurozone debt crisis.

Why's that?

Kermit.de.frog

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Why's that?

/joke


Actually it has a positive side as it will encourage Italian voters to consider the consequences if they want to go the route of populism.

Remember most Italian sovereign debt is held in Italy by Italians and when you get this type of speculative moves in that market it's mostly ordinary households being hurt.

johnp001

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

/joke


Actually it has a positive side as it will encourage Italian voters to consider the consequences if they want to go the route of populism.

Remember most Italian sovereign debt is held in Italy by Italians and when you get this type of speculative moves in that market it's mostly ordinary households being hurt.

My interpretation of the cause of the loss of confidence in the Italian markets today was that the actions of the Italian president would be seen by League/5Star voters as overreach and harden their resolve for the next election.
The immediate consequence of blocking eurosceptic Pavona and appointing an IMF loyalist as prime minister would surely be viewed positively by the markets if it didn't come with a threat of the populist coalition strengthening their position at the next election.