FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

Interesting the GFS showing ex Helene tracking up the W coast on the latest 18Z followed by that large storm off the W coast. Track and timing different to the ECM but both showing similar trend.

Kermit.de.frog

Meteorite58

Ex Helene close on this run from the ECM 12Z. A few potentially windy spells coming up next week. GFS sending remnants of Helene to pass the SE coast tracking up the Irish Sea and across the UK .

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039635156678660097

Meteorite58

Size of the remnants of Helene are small compared to the Storm off the W coast the day after according to the GFS 18Z.

The ECMWF has been out performing the GFS recently. On to the next run in the morning.

Meteorite58

Latest ECM 0Z showing a direct track over Ireland from ex Helene late Mon early Tues.widespread gusts over 100 km/ , coastal counties gust 120 km/ h.

Early days and by no means certain at this far out .

It would be a hefty storm for the time of year if it maintained track and strength.

highdef

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest ECM 0Z showing a direct track over Ireland from ex Helene late Mon early Tues.widespread gusts over 100 km/ , coastal counties gust 120 km/ h.

Early days and by no means certain at this far out .

It would be a hefty storm for the time of year if it maintained track and strength.

If that happen, I'd expect a lot of felled trees and tree limbs.

MJohnston

Surface Sea Temperatures might be of interest in regard to Helene, and they're warmer than usual at the minute (this is the anomaly chart rather than absolute temps)

highdef

MJohnston wrote: »

Surface Sea Temperatures might be of interest in regard to Helene, and they're warmer than usual at the minute (this is the anomaly chart rather than absolute temps)

Is there a scale available for that?

MJohnston

highdef wrote: »

Is there a scale available for that?

The scale isn't annotated, you have to just click on the various areas to see the exact SSTA at that point:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-18.84,37.48,631/loc=-17.786,39.205

Meteorite58

GFS now showing ex Helene taking a more direct track towards Ireland. Also showing a rapidly deepening Storm developing well off the W coast around Tues / Weds and at present showing strong winds and rain for Ireland. More consistency and models aligning to know for sure. Potentially looking lively for a couple of days

pad199207

Meteorite58 wrote: »

GFS now showing ex Helene taking a more direct track towards Ireland. Also showing a rapidly deepening Storm developing well off the W coast around Tues / Weds and at present showing strong winds and rain for Ireland. More consistency and models aligning to know for sure. Potentially looking lively for a couple of days

Some interesting weather at last

pauldry

I knew Helene would come to us as thats my Daughters name and she too can be "stormy" at times...shes very excited by this (shes 7) by the way so it better not take a holiday in France or something

ninebeanrows

Ah yes, the yearly ex-Hurricane hit when I am out of the country!

cian1500ww

Meteorite58 wrote: »

GFS now showing ex Helene taking a more direct track towards Ireland. Also showing a rapidly deepening Storm developing well off the W coast around Tues / Weds and at present showing strong winds and rain for Ireland. More consistency and models aligning to know for sure. Potentially looking lively for a couple of days

Same on the 12z too:

cian1500ww

12Z ECM:

ninebeanrows

Here we go again ...😂

pad199207

Weathercheck wrote: »

Here we go again ...😂

Huh? Ophelia?

sdanseo

pad199207 wrote: »

Huh? Ophelia?

Not quite.

Ophelia's central pressure at the time of the last NHC advisory near Ireland was 969mb

Forecast for Helene in a similar position closer to ~ 987mb

Nowhere near as intense, although Florence has been reminding us in the last few hours that intensity is not always completely aligned with windspeed.

squarecircles

latest ecm has 160 kmh gusts out at sea,off the southeast coast,impressive, as ex-helene barrells up the irish sea,all looks slightly opheliaesque again,though not near as strong.

the rags have gotten word of it too.

https://www.thesun.ie/news/3103913/met-eireann-monitoring-hurricane-isaac-hurricane-helene-ireland/

Artane2002

squarecircles wrote: »

latest ecm has 160 kmh gusts out at sea,off the southeast coast,impressive, as ex-helene barrells up the irish sea,all looks slightly opheliaesque again,though not near as strong.

the rags have gotten word of it too.

https://www.thesun.ie/news/3103913/met-eireann-monitoring-hurricane-isaac-hurricane-helene-ireland/

I'm hoping that this doesn't happen. I told my friends in August that there would be no category 4 hurricane here and now they're going to say Helene is a category 4 hurricane and that I was wrong :rolleyes:

Btw the ECM OP is an outlier within its ensembles, the low is nowhere near as deep as what the ECM shows.

Mullaghteelin

Looks like Helene will interact with or swallow up subtropical storm Joyce. The models won't have much of a handle on this setup for days.

MJohnston

sdanseo wrote: »

Not quite.

Ophelia's central pressure at the time of the last NHC advisory near Ireland was 969mb

Forecast for Helene in a similar position closer to ~ 987mb

Nowhere near as intense, although Florence has been reminding us in the last few hours that intensity is not always completely aligned with windspeed.

Nope, ECM is showing a very similar situation to Ophelia:






Only difference is Ophelia was a pretty dry storm, Helene is going to have a fair bit of rain along with the strongest winds.


Still aways off though - the ECM track this morning had this grazing the west coast, now it's passing up the Irish sea, so it could completely disappear from our forecast even.


When you watch its progress, a large part of the track seems to be dictated by interaction with a large blob of high pressure on Sunday evening - that blob looks like it forces the track towards Ireland. So that's a wee bit more complex to model than a simple isolated storm track.

sdanseo

MJohnston wrote: »

Nope, ECM is showing a very similar situation to Ophelia:






Only difference is Ophelia was a pretty dry storm, Helene is going to have a fair bit of rain along with the strongest winds.


Still aways off though - the ECM track this morning had this grazing the west coast, now it's passing up the Irish sea, so it could completely disappear from our forecast even.


When you watch its progress, a large part of the track seems to be dictated by interaction with a large blob of high pressure on Sunday evening - that blob looks like it forces the track towards Ireland. So that's a wee bit more complex to model than a simple isolated storm track.

Wow, right you are too. Big change on the 12Z in terms of min pressure

That rivals Ophelia if it came off for sure.

cian1500ww

NHC 5PM AST update:

PukkaStukka

Stand by for buckets of wind, rain, and tabloid hysteria . :rolleyes:

pad199207

Throwback to last year

Meteorite58

This run seeing the SE and E getting the biggest winds from ex Helene around Tues next . Long way to go. ECM doing very well lately, outclassed the GFS with Florence. A windy day following on Weds but the ECM keeping the storm well off the coast atm.

Helene currently a Cat 1 Hurricane

Villain

Latest ECMWF shift it southeast taking winds into Wales and Southwest England but heavy rain over Ireland, GFS has it hitting Southwest Ireland, this will chop and change a LOT before she arrives near our shores.

Also another system approaching the West coast on Wednesday.

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1040130516866031617

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1040131023424704512

squarecircles

GFS 06Z