FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Artane2002

The GFS is showing some wintry showers for the north of Scotland (probably high ground though) next Sunday with -6c uppers getting there, which I guess is pretty impressive for September. In Ireland, we are also affected by N'ly/NW'ly with temperatures in the low teens, -2c uppers in the north. Can we not get this in November instead? :rolleyes:

sryanbruen

This GFS 12z is something else.... for Sunday 23rd September.

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

This GFS 12z is something else.... for Sunday 23rd September.

This is one for the bin or the historical books, depending on which way it goes!

irishrover99

Showing what exactly?

Artane2002

irishrover99 wrote: »

Showing what exactly?

Very heavy rain and strong winds.

km79

Artane2002 wrote: »

This is one for the bin or the historical books, depending on which way it goes!

I am flying home that night so that can just go away!!!!

sdanseo

ICON, ECM, ARPEGE and GFS all showing at least orange warning level winds for Wednesday across the west, and perhaps more of the country. ECM and ICON showing up to 160km/h for western coastal counties easily warranting the maximum warning for exposed coasts at least.

Many models are thereafter picking up on another wind event on Thursday night with strong gusts just about anywhere.

And then there's Sunday. ECM having none of it, GFS calling for hurricane-force winds just offshore.

Interesting few days ahead whatever the outcomes!

Chris_5339762

That would destroy large parts of Ireland, England, Belgium and Holland. Fingers crossed thats an awful outlier.

Widdensushi

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

That would destroy large parts of Ireland, England, Belgium and Holland. Fingers crossed thats an awful outlier.

The drama!!

pauldry

That does look very bad on GFS. Its a concern thats its appeared twice in a row. It would be 150kph gusts on that and widespread damage.

Hopefully it fills or stays off to our Northwest

MJohnston

Chris_5339762

Still there on this mornings run! A touch weakened but still widespread inland Force 11 or even Force 12 gusts.

sdanseo

Connecting dots here.

Seems to be some mutation of Florence remnants. NOAA were forecasting the depression to be near 33W at 45kt sustained on Saturday and moving rapidly eastwards.

km79

Im flying early friday morning and late sunday evening from shannon EEEKKK

squarecircles

ummm this storm has vanished off the charts.instead there is an area of high pressure,hilarious.

sryanbruen

squarecircles wrote: »

ummm this storm has vanished off the charts.instead there is an area of high pressure,hilarious.

That’s yesterday’s GFS 06z.....

pauldry

if we survive all these storms GFS hinting at warm end to month so we will be able to tidy debris n sunbathe

squarecircles

very steep thermal gradient, the 0 degree 850 isotherm side by side with the +15 850 isotherm,can only spell trouble.



8 degrees in Donegal and 18 degrees in Cork at 9pm,incredible contrast.



Intense jet racing across ireland

Harry Palmr

Deffo looks like a HP building in the wake of this coming LP and a short sharp follow on over the weekend. Someone can tell me the technical term but it's like a hole is created and HP back fills the void.

squarecircles

would be a serious storm for the uk if this run verified,affecting pretty much all of the
densely populated areas of the country,including the greater London area.

Artane2002

Not to mention the storm surge for the east coast of England off the North Sea because of the northerly winds. This coincides with spring tides too. It would be 5 December 2013 all over again for over there if this was to come off.

Edit: UKMO says no to that low now.

km79

Artane2002 wrote: »

Not to mention the storm surge for the east coast of England off the North Sea because of the northerly winds. This coincides with spring tides too. It would be 5 December 2013 all over again for over there if this was to come off.

Edit: UKMO says no to that low now.

Thank god

SleetAndSnow

ECM starting to show some strong winds across the country now. Think it shows parts of the south/midlands getting 130km + gusts (scales hard to read lol)? will leave the actual reading to the people who understand these more

sdanseo

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

ECM starting to show some strong winds across the country now. Think it shows parts of the south/midlands getting 130km + gusts (scales hard to read lol)? will leave the actual reading to the people who understand these more

Your second chart is winds @ 850hpa (about 1500m / 5,000ft) not surface.

The ECM is picking up on it but not deepening it near as much as GFS did yesterday. Not stopping nearly 12m waves though.

SleetAndSnow

sdanseo wrote: »

Your second chart is winds @ 850hpa (about 1500m / 5,000ft) not surface.

Ah thanks!

Artane2002

It looks more like 120km/h+ gusts at 1500m asl (so somewhere between 120kph and 130kph is how I like to read it, I don't know if it's the correct way of doing so.)

MJohnston

Artane2002 wrote: »

It looks more like 120km/h+ gusts at 1500m asl (so somewhere between 120kph and 130kph is how I like to read it, I don't know if it's the correct way of doing so.)

"Vents" is actually continuous winds, not gusts, but yeah, it's at altitude so not representative of ground level winds necessarily. ECM is getting in on the fun though, some really strong gusts here, including 160km/h+ on Dingle peninsula (mountaintop winds before Gaoth points it out):

Harry Palmr

This weekend low certainly has the met people betwixt and between, meteo weather on BBC at 10 pm noted that Sunday could either be quiet under slack HP or have a sharp LP barrelling across the UK!

Meteorite58

ECM looking good from next Monday if it sticks.

sryanbruen

Just for a good laugh. Pub run last night was showing the Atlantic blocked for early October with a potent northerly shot (for early October anyway) and bringing snow to the UK.

Saying that as just for fun, there has been some trend from each of the models for the end of the month into early October to be quite a bit cooler than average.