FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

Exceptional levels of high pressure (near record breaking almost for September - 2018 does not stop does it?) still ahead on the outlook from Monday onwards with a very dominant anticyclone being the influence for the UK and Ireland for the end of September. Much higher pressure compared to what we had during the Summer. Signs of retrogression in early October though....

sdanseo

Beyond the 5-7 day mark we have another cyclone expected to develop mid Atlantic west of the Azores. As we have seen its the storms brewing in this particular area (far enough north to catch the westerlies instead of the easterlies) that have arrived with us.

Don't rule out another Tropical Storm system paying us a visit by early October. In what sorry state it will be though, nobody knows.

Meteorite58

ECM 00Z holding on to HP right out to +240 hrs, the potential Subtropical or Tropical Cyclone which the NHC says has a 60% chance of formation within 48hrs W of the Azores seems to become more or less stationary on the lastest run, being blocked by areas of HP in the N Atlantic. Will see how this develops and will it remain so.

sryanbruen

Looks like the ECM will be having four runs a day soon like other models such as the GFS (wasn't sure where to post this).

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1045297168624611328

MJohnston

Hourly up to +90 is also a great addition!

Meteorite58

ECM showing some cold weather at times as we move into Oct. At the end of the run showing strong winds in off the Atlantic with frontal activity and what is Leslie going to do after it's walkabout, will it enter the strong Jet at the end of the run bringing it close to these shores ?

Meteorite58

Well the charts continue to show Leslie to just meander around the mid Atlantic up to +240 hrs at least.

After a few relatively mild days mid week ( more so S and E ) the ECM has been consistent in showing some very cool weather over the weekend. Could be windy along E and SE coasts Sat. Sun /Mon alternating mild and cold air mass with a breezy wet frontal passage and cooler again Tue /Weds according to the ECM in what looks like a brisk W'ly airflow, showers ( possibly windy/ wet along Atlantic coasts ).

Meteorite58

Our spell of benign weather looks to be coming to an end as signs of unsettled weather showing up on the charts as we move into next week with the Atlantic becoming more mobile, wet and windy weather with a particularly Deep Depression showing up off the W coast around Weds / Thurs ( early days though will have to see will it show up over the next few runs. ). Strong Jet . Mix of mild and cool air but not looking as cool as earlier charts.

Meteorite58

The ECM 12Z has that storm closer to Ireland on this run and showing some very strong winds. Looks abnormally deep atm ? Will see if it it maintains a similar proximity to Ireland and as vigorous as it has been showing now for two days. On tonight's run another depression can be seen forming on the heels of the weds storm .

Meteorite58

Meteorite58

GFS going on a different tack showing Ex Hurricane Leslie track close to us next Thurs ? Both main models showing disturbed weather later next week but from different systems.

Widdensushi

Surely its very rare for a low to move that slowly?

Meteorite58

Widdensushi wrote: »

Surely its very rare for a low to move that slowly?

They usually whip by all right being aided by the Jet but they can stall or move slowly close by or over us but usually take that track off the NW between us and Iceland.

The GEM showing a disturbed weather picture for next week also .

Meteorite58

ECM Charts showing systems not as low as the sub 950 hPa like yesterday . Keeping them further off the coasts on the latest run. Both GFS and ECM showing the remnants of Leslie eventually getting absorbed in weather moving up past the W of Ireland by the end of next week. Much more windy and wetter next week.
Would expect plenty of twists and turns over the coming days as the models come to grips with the blast of Tropical airmass.

Meteorite58

The ECM 12Z now showing Leslie not moving towards us and placed S of the Azores at +240 hrs, GFS shows the filling remnants of Leslie pass to the W of Ireland at +204 hrs . Now that is some flip flop by the ECM.

Meteorite58

Unreliable charts atm, will watch to see what happens to this depression over the next few runs.

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z still wants to bring the remnants of Leslie up along the W coast about next Fri. Been consistent if anything but could be wrong.

JCX BXC

Something interesting to watch, has been fairly benign since Ali.

Harry Palmr

You're only desperate for a storm! If it happens then at least it'll drag the jet stream north for HP to back fill.

MJohnston

Posting this here because it's hopefully useful for model watchers. A while ago I posted a graphic showing the model run schedules. Now I've turned it into a webapp to make it more useful and dynamic:

https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com/

The webapp is not yet visually optimised for mobile, only desktop, but I'll sort that out soon enough. Regardless, it shows all the daily model runs, along with a clock line showing you where we are in the UTC day in relation to those runs. You can click on the model names to jump straight to the 'best' site for viewing each of those models, and it shows the resolution and the time-range of each model and run. As we get into winter model watching season, this should be really useful for figuring out when the next runs start!

Another thing of interest, on the backend this is powered by a separate, simple API that I created that is open for use by anyone (if they want to build their own app, or use it to provide data for their own website). It is located here:

https://weather-api.thedeskofmatthew.com/graphql

It is a GraphQL API, if anyone is familiar with that (here's an example of how you can retrieve particular fields).

But because I have no clue whether the data on the models and their runs here is correct (it's based off of the random info I could find on meteociel and the likes), I've open-sourced the API, and would really welcome corrections and pull-requests for updates to the data, specifically located here:

https://github.com/matthewjohnston4/weather-model-api/blob/master/data.js

Also, if you could share the API repository far-and-wide, hopefully I can add even more models and metadata (and correct data!) into it. General feedback on the schedule viewer is also welcome (PM me or @deskofmatthew on Twitter)

(Mods if this belongs in a different thread, let me know!)

Meteorite58

A disturbed outlook from the GFS and ECM from midweek next especially towards the weekend if these charts were to verify.

Both beginning to look similar at this stage. ECM back with a sub 950 hPa Storm ????

Both have left Leslie in the lower latitudes for now.

GEM something similar.

MidMan25

Brilliant work MJ!

Meteorite58

A lot of rain forecast by the ECM between now and next Sat along Atlantic coastal counties.

Meteorite58

ECM 00Z Keping that very deep low well off the W coast on Fri . large wind field leading to windy conditions, mainly along Atlantic coastal counties atm.

GFS similar look to it but showing stronger winds but way too soon to know for certain.

This system is separate to the remnants of Leslie which the ECM shows making its way towards us Sun or Mon next, The GFS at present shows it dissipating around the NW coast of Africa. Big uncertainty what becomes of what is left of Leslie.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is crazy warm for next Saturday (by Irish October standards anyway) with temperatures widely over Ireland in the high teens and touching the low 20s. This coming in from a southerly feed of air and a band of rain near western regions. A definitive Indian Summer if I ever saw one!







Be careful though as it's quite a bit out and the ECM doesn't go nearly as crazy with the warmth, in fact, close to average temperatures I would think with rain over the country; the warmth confined to southeastern England.

Artane2002

Look at how far north the warm air is going! Imagine if that GFS run occurred in late July/early August though....

naughto

Any cold weather at all

pauldry

Yup 20c definitely likely this coming week but a 21c or 22c would be slightly possible.

Think Phoenix Park or Oak Park.

That chart doesnt look good for this side of the Arctic.

Not good on Alaskan side either.

Kermit.de.frog

naughto wrote: »

Any cold weather at all

Patience.:cool:

Meteorite58

GFS certainly looks mild and even warm out into FI, not as mild with the ECM which is showing colder Air sourced from Canada towards the end of the run ( Lot of uncertainty I would reckon ).

ECM keeping the Mobile Atlantic theme going out to +240

Leslie was stalling off Portugal in the last ECM 00Z run, now it is going for another circuit of the Atlantic on the 12Z