FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Captain Snow

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Repeat of November 2010??

Starting to think that. We do have a blocking signal to our east in the Long range

Meteorite58

Certainly a cooler trend showing in the charts, big differences in how it pans out out to +240. European Blocking winning out leading to SE /E for a time, some crisp days, cold nights / foggy at times, inversion layers / grey skies at times ? , ECM looks a bit wintry out at +240 with a LP over us feeding in wet N / NW'lys under cold uppers. Will be interesting seeing the charts evolve over the next few days to see where this is going.

Harry Palmr

Pity we didn't have this in the summer - oh wait

nacho libre

Will there be enough residual energy left in the vortex to stop retrogression to the favoured spot to our north west, that is the question. If it doesn't come off with the jet stream going off to Africa, and, more importantly, blocking looking like continuing over Scandanvia that may well in time lead to a favourable stratospheric response longer term. In other words we will likely get more than one bite of the cherry. We may not even need a stratopsheric warming to get a proper cold spell this winter.

Villain

Interesting FI charts continue, in my opinion, it is too early to be getting excited, cool but nothing special.

sryanbruen

Villain wrote: »

Interesting FI charts continue, in my opinion, it is too early to be getting excited, cool but nothing special.

Nothing special in terms of our actual conditions i.e. cold, damp, dull, but the synoptics being produced by models (multiple models at that) are very abnormal and strange.

Villain

sryanbruen wrote: »

Nothing special in terms of our actual conditions i.e. cold, damp, dull, but the synoptics being produced by models (multiple models at that) are very abnormal and strange.

Very true indeed, just a little too early for us imo but we could see reloads later in the coming weeks which could have much bigger impact.

patneve2

Unreal North-North Easterly blast straight from the Arctic on the latest GFS. Still far out though

nacho libre

The latest ECM is not quite as good as the GFS output- but we may still get there(a Greenland High) in the longer term.

Reckless Abandonment

Not as good as GFS but
Vortex getting a beating, Great to see this early

arctictree

patneve2 wrote: »

Unreal North-North Easterly blast straight from the Arctic on the latest GFS. Still far out though

That's pretty much the chart needed for November snow.

pad199207

Meteorite58

Possible Snapshot : ECM for a few runs now has been showing a LP drift up towards Ireland around next Tues / Weds and running into the cold airmass moving in off Europe, looks like it could produce some wintry precipitation perhaps, more so on high ground in the E / SE. Looks cold with a max of 6 to 8C by day with a considerable windchill , possibly strong onshore E'ly winds. Brrrr...

hatrickpatrick

Pub run rolling out now, will be interesting to see if it keeps up the trend. The question at the moment is whether or not the block showing up to our North can push its way westward into Greenland, or whether the PV will be strong enough to push it out of the way. 18z so far doesn't show it as far to the east as the epic 12z did - next few frames will be crucial:

12z



18z



As always, this is most certainly subject to continuous changes over the next week.

EDIT: Rest of the 18z run shows a resurgent polar vortex. Keep an eye on the models tomorrow morning to see which trend they decide to follow. To pre-empt any "RIP Winter 2018" sh!te, this is very far from over. Every decent cold spell we've had has involved FI charts flip flopping a good bit beforehand, even the epic one earlier this year.

Meteorite58

ECM UKMO bringing in the cold much earlier ( Tues ) than the GFS ( Thurs), GFS goes on to pour in the cold after that whilst the 12Z ECM cuts it off out to +240 at least on present runs anyway. Nothing certain. Worth noting that the ECM is radically different this run compared to the last which was much colder from Tues out to the end of the run. Possible swing back again.

Kermit.de.frog

This is quite telling.

This is the median of the ensembles at 240hrs on the ECM. High pressure likely to be to the north and the southern arm of the jet stream cutting south over the med.

BLIZZARD7

Beautiful 06z - Vintage charts being pumped out now



Heavy Snow showers moving into the east on a bitter North Easterly -

Artane2002

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Beautiful 06z - Vintage charts being pumped out now



Heavy Snow showers moving into the east on a bitter North Easterly -

Wow... I wouldn't rule out thundersnow in that setup. Gets even better than your chart.

leahyl

Only the east for now....obviously this is all still FI but I hate when it’s only the east! Still, great to see these trends.

Artane2002

leahyl wrote: »

Only the east for now....obviously this is all still FI but I hate when it’s only the east! Still, great to see these trends.

The south and north coasts could get something depending on the exact wind direction.

BLIZZARD7

That run is up there with the best setups we have had, constant reloading from the North East- that's an unstable flow full of disturbances over warm water, thundersnow and intense streamers setting up ala 2010. We've a long way to go but taking that run on its own- couldn't hope for much better if you like deep winter weather.

The12thMan

jesus.....

Danno

That 06z GFS run is something to behold. Unreal. A carbon copy of 2010 if not colder.

Captain Snow

Still heading for SNOWMAGEDDON...

BLIZZARD7

A superb day 10 mean -

odyboody

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Thats what happens when you look at too much weather porn:rolleyes:

daydorunrun

No offence folks but this is the Model/technical thread. Adolescent humour goes HERE:P

BLIZZARD7

Day 5 on the ECM 12z, going down a nicer route than the 00z- A Super day 5 chart by any measure.



Day 7/8 - the flood gates are about to open to our North east as the easterly continues. That block isn't going anywhere anytime soon, it's making Greenland its home. A week or so of 5-7c temps by day with an increasingly chilly easterly wind bedding in, this is necessary at this time of year before the real cold air moves down out of the Arctic and Siberia towards Scandinavia and then us. The second and third bite of the cherry are what we are looking forward to.

hatrickpatrick

Educational question here:

The block is certainly in better shape at 240h than it was on this morning's 0z run, but to me it still looks under serious threat? Forecasting this kind of weather pattern is a totally new area for me, not something we see very often, so I could be missing something:

0z 240h this morning:



12z 240h just now:



Let's assume for a moment that this is accurate and doesn't change between now and 240h (obviously it will, but for educational purposes ) - is that shade of lime-ish yellow, combined with being surrounded on all sides by lower green pressure, not a sign that the block is living on borrowed time? Any time I see a high shrinking and deepening within a "moat" of low pressure like this, I assume it'll be gone in another few frames (if there were any) - that is, I can't think of a time I've seen a block recover once it's isolated and shrunken like that. Obviously ye aren't seeing what I'm seeing, so what am I missing here? Is it possible for the high to expand again under those conditions, or even just hold its own at the size and height that it's currently at? I realise it's looking better than it did this morning, but even so, if this were to verify - to my mind, that last frame shows the dying breath of a high which is about to either cave in, or get shoved aside by a strong enough low.

Kermit.de.frog

The average among the ECM ensembles looks very positive for cold weather fans. Should pay more attention to this at that range rather than individual op runs.

Very unusual to see broad concensus on a outlook like this.