FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

Don't have the charts here but ECM 12z is properly cooler and more unsettled for the weekend into early next week.

Harry Palmr

The fact it changed so quickly suggests that the models don't know their arses from their elbows right now.

Villain

Summer ain't done yet

pauldry

I dont believe so either.

Id say the weather will be fair until September and even hot at times with just short wet periods

JCX BXC

Villain wrote: »

Summer ain't done yet

Sadly won't load for me Villain!

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

Sadly won't load for me Villain!

It was (doesn't load for me either now) the GFS 0z ensembles from Netweather and they showed it staying largely warm for the most part into August with only short cooler interludes like the coming weekend.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

It was (doesn't load for me either now) the GFS 0z ensembles from Netweather and they showed it staying largely warm for the most part into August with only short cooler interludes like the coming weekend.

Eh well don't worry, the 12Z is quite good too, from the 2nd of August onwards.

Villain

Doh should have uploaded image some where, summary in my last tweet:
https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1022084997497454592

pauldry

GFS upgraded from 2nd Aug bringing Scandi High down over us.

A long way off yet but warm weather quite likely still after a few days rain

sryanbruen

GFS 12z 850hPa temperature charts.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z ensembles for Dublin looking really warm to hot for early August, an unanimous amount of support here! The ensemble mean gets close to 15c at 850hPa.....



Cork's ones are similar.

pauldry

High on latest GFS more retrogressive as a low FINALLY hits Scandanavia.

Still all pie in the sky

Next run might bring heat back

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

High on latest GFS more retrogressive as a low FINALLY hits Scandanavia.

Still all pie in the sky

Next run might bring heat back

It indeed has, it goes off on one if I'm completely honest :pac:.

JCX BXC

When the GFS shows temperatures of 29c over Ireland you know it would be a hot verification!

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

When the GFS shows temperatures of 29c over Ireland you know it would be a hot verification!

It shows 37c for England on 8th August but on its 12z run yesterday, barely reaching 20c in a northerly wind for that exact day.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

It shows 37c for England on 8th August but on its 12z run yesterday, barely reaching 20c in a northerly wind for that exact day.

Never said it was likely to happen!

squarecircles

squarecircles

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wing52

squarecircles wrote: »

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Now that's just dangerous heat.

Sammy2012

When is that predicted for Spain and Portugal? Flying to Portugal on the 12th of Aug.

Gonzo

Sammy2012 wrote: »

When is that predicted for Spain and Portugal? Flying to Portugal on the 12th of Aug.

that's predicted for next week. Temperatures for most of Spain look normal enough, high 20s to low 30's near the south and east coasts, where most people spend their holidays.

It's really the western inland part of Spain near Seville where extreme heat will be felt, but even there temperatures of 40C are fairly regular during July and August.

the coasts of Portugal look similar to the coasts of Spain, high 20s to low 30s, it's only inland where the extreme heat kicks in.

Sammy2012

Oh right. Thanks gonzo. I don't the heat so I'll deal with it if it's really hot when we are there. Was there 3 years ago at the end of June and temps were in the the low 40s. It's usually in the mid 30s when we are there anyway. Lovely weather for sitting around doing nothing.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is high pressure mania after mid-week next week. Expect a lot more flip flops of this until we get closer to the expected period of time which should be around the first weekend of August.

sryanbruen

Don't have charts but ECM 12z is settled for the first week of August. However, the heat is less extreme than the GFS. Deep low attempts to push eastwards near mid-week next week but gets put off by the anticyclones.

Luke-m

sryanbruen wrote: »

Don't have charts but ECM 12z is settled for the first week of August. However, the heat is less extreme than the GFS. Deep low attempts to push eastwards near mid-week next week but gets put off by the anticyclones.

Agree, the op doesn’t quite build the heat. But the mean is more different. It’s warmer. I think it’s a case of more runs needed.

Kermit.de.frog

Definitely signs that high pressure will be building in again from Wednesday. Don't get caught up on the details yet though...

km79

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Definitely signs that high pressure will be building in again from Wednesday. Don't get caught up on the details yet though...

That will do nicely

The garden will go crazy !

Kermit.de.frog

To note, no amount of rain this week is going to make up for the losses so far this year. So if a block like this occurs we could be heading for issues.

JCX BXC

Not a very nice 00Z GFS run at all.

White Clover

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not a very nice 00Z GFS run at all.

What is it indicating? Thanks

whatever76

how are things looking on Sunday afternoon for croke park ?! Will rain gear be required ?!

squarecircles

gfs 06z is high pressure dominated from august 2nd untill the end of the run,
august 12th.

sryanbruen

White Clover wrote: »

What is it indicating? Thanks

Changeable with differences in air masses on a daily basis and rain from time to time, even during the period that high pressure is expected to come back as above from the GFS 06z. The 0z is an outlier..... for now.

Villain

ECMWF mean looking nice and settled

Gonzo

Villain wrote: »

ECMWF mean looking nice and settled

I'll be in the Shannon region for that weekend, so keeping a very close eye on this one, if things work out, 30C may happen again in the mid west as winds look like they will have an easterly flavour.

km79

This has cheered me up
Can handle these 4 days of absolute misery which will help people in need of rain as long as it settles back down for a few weeks again

Call me Al

km79 wrote: »

This has cheered me up
Can handle these 4 days of absolute misery which will help people in need of rain as long as it settles back down for a few weeks again

Yes. I appreciate rain is needed. And hopefully we will get lots of it between now and midweek.

But I'm also hoping that Mother Nature doesn't forget to stop raining, as tends to happen in an Irish summer.

squarecircles

Call me Al wrote: »

Yes. I appreciate rain is needed. And hopefully we will get lots of it between now and midweek.

But I'm also hoping that Mother Nature doesn't forget to stop raining, as tends to happen in an Irish summer.

yes its high time we came back inline now with the rest of europe,regarding sunshine and heat,weve had enough cloudy overcast days here in the west,The uk are having a blast,the heatwave has reloaded in scandinavia, and its business as usual in the med and central europe.i want my heat and sunshine back please.

Cork Boy 53

km79 wrote: »

This has cheered me up
Can handle these 4 days of absolute misery which will help people in need of rain as long as it settles back down for a few weeks again

I have serious issues with lack of water. My well is on the point of drying up despite the rain of the last two days and many of my neighbouring farmers and landowners are in the same position so personally speaking I hope we get a prolonged period of steady rainfall.

ItJustWorks

sryanbruen wrote: »

Changeable with differences in air masses on a daily basis and rain from time to time, even during the period that high pressure is expected to come back as above from the GFS 06z. The 0z is an outlier..... for now.

12z GFS going for more settled with the ridge rebuilding from the west and bringing a NW flow like the 0z so outside of some light rain/drizzle it's average temperatures. 12z ECM is kinda a mess after Thursday and indecisive as it rapidly makes a ridge for the Friday then shunts it to the east as soon as it forms letting the Atlantic have a look in again. Does look warmer in the south though.

Meteorite58

Heights and pressure building towards the weekend as ridging moves up over us. Would be great if we got at least some warm weather for a few days but it looks quite transient with LP wanting to push through again after the weekend but very uncertain. I see the Scandi HP being replaced by LP out at +240. The GFS taking on a more meridional flow after that perhaps. The weak Jet is fractured all over the place in the next week or so . A way out in FI it takes on a more strong North South flow showing a deeper Atlantic LP but that is purely just looking for trends at this stage.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z turns up the furnace and different again. Like I said, expect lots more flips and flops!

km79

Light me up baby !!!

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Please keep on Topic. This thread is for posting and discussing charts / future weather in the more unreliable timeframe of FI ,

that is +120 hrs.

Thanks

Kermit.de.frog

Good signs across the models from Wednesday onward. Increasing dry, warm and sunny weather quite likely to return.

Thursday



Friday



Saturday



Some industries (Farmers) maybe not so much good news.


It's on.

ItJustWorks

ECMWF 12z Seeming fine for the bank holiday weekend. Pleasant weather after maybe a brief wet interlude on Thursday. South will get a nice warm spell for sure though not looking overly hot. Only thing that has me wondering is that the High being shunted very quickly over to Scandinavia and not hooking with the Azores high. Meanwhile the Atlantic jet looks like it's having a peep in though the slack mess left behind. Could that be the August scenario we're looking at? Chopping and changing between high ridges and the Atlantic jet (Especially as it starts picking up more steam on the way into Autumn)?

sryanbruen

More changes on the 0z runs (along with GFS 06z), back to the transient ridge scenario that Meteorite58 highlighted for yesterday's 0z runs. The 12z runs said no to it. Wonder if the same will occur today.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is strange. The high is transient and so is real warmth but it never gets very unsettled for Ireland through the run. The ensembles look rather wet though which again is very different.

sryanbruen

ECM 12z keeps pressure high (starting Thursday) lasting 'til the end of its run. It is much hotter for Friday than the GFS. BBQ weekend if the ECM is right.





Maximum temperatures for the weekend on the ECM 12z.

Saturday 4th August





Sunday 5th August

Meteorite58

Heights and pressure building and temperatures improving Thurs and looks like getting warmer each day and looking the warmest Sat, Sun , Mon at this stage . ECM showing top temps of 25 - 27C over the week end .

Early days but will be interesting watching the plume coming up out of Spain to see if it gets further up over the country and maybe last a bit longer. Also will be watching for Thunderstorm potential. Could get quite humid the week end and will be watching to see if we get something in the upper atmosphere to ignite a few sparks. Very early but showing a small area of lower pressure move up from the S around Sat / Sun this, looks slack but could feed in precipitation of some sort / cloud perhaps.