2018-2019 Champions Cup

troyzer

Burkie1203 wrote: »

troyzer wrote: »

Munster and Exeter is already a knockout game because the winner wins the group.

Unless it's possible for the loser to go through?

It's still possible for both to qualify if Ulster and Montpellier get 0 points

If Montpellier (4/5) beat Embra (1)
Monty win pool and Embra have 20 points

If Ulster get a win at Tigers

Exeter win 4-0 or 5-1 and Munster are gone
Munster win and Exeter are gone

Do both of them have to get zero points? That seems unlikely.

Burkie1203

troyzer wrote: »

Do both of them have to get zero points? That seems unlikely.

Montpellier get 0 (or 1 and then it comes down to PD). That game v Edinburgh will either clear a lot up or complicate a lot more.

Edinburgh win or get 0 points on Friday means Leinster are through.

Eod100

troyzer wrote: »

Munster and Exeter is already a knockout game because the winner wins the group.

Unless it's possible for the loser to go through?

It is if Exeter win by less than 4 match points. A 4-1 win for Exeter would see Munster top group.

Eod100

Burkie1203 wrote: »

If Montpellier (4) beat Edinburgh (1) and Ulster beat Tigers then Munster v Exeter becomes a knockout game and the timings of the game are impeccable for this scenario too

Fairly sure there won't be a runner up from Munster's group regardless

Burkie1203

Eod100 wrote: »

Fairly sure there won't be a runner up from Munster's group regardless

It is possible though unlikely but if it unfolded it would make Saturday's games very interesting. 6n 2015 all over again in a way

Embra win v Monty on Friday will qualify Leinster and Glasgow.

Eod100

Burkie1203 wrote: »

It is possible though unlikely but if it unfolded it would make Saturday's games very interesting. 6n 2015 all over again in a way

Embra win v Monty on Friday will qualify Leinster and Glasgow.

With Glasgow on 19, Ulster on 18, Toulouse on 17 and Montpellier on 16 already I don't see it happening but you never know!

With 2 bottom teams already eliminated it kinda narrows down the surprises. It's 10 teams into 8 places. All either 1st or 2nd currently. Rankings to be decided too but don't think they will change much from current rankings.

PTH2009

My head hurts

Eod100

P_1 wrote: »

1 Saracens 28
2 Racing 26
3 Leinster 24
4 Edinburgh 23
5 Munster 21
6 Toulouse 22
7 Ulster 22
8 Glasgow 19
9 Montpellier 17
10 Exeter 13

Saracens v Glasgow
Racing v Ulster
Leinster v Toulouse
Edinburgh v Munster

Semi finals
Munster v Saracens
Racing v Leinster

The Leinster Munster final is on!

I think this is fairly spot on. Think Ulster could potentially pip Toulouse for 6th spot. Think there's 4 tries in them vs Scarlets. Would mean a Leinster v Ulster qf, so would guarantee at least 1 team in semi.

Real tight margins from here on, 1 tbp could mean difference in ranking.

Neil3030

I wonder if Toulouse would rather finish 7th and likely have Racing in a French venue, or 6th and likely travel to Ireland to play Leinster...

Eod100

Neil3030 wrote: »

I wonder if Toulouse would rather finish 7th and likely have Racing in a French venue, or 6th and likely travel to Ireland to play Leinster...

Don't think many teams would want to travel to Leinster! Interesting thing is they and Leinster kick off last games of weekend, so Toulouse might know what they have to do for either scenario. Could equally be all sown up too if Ulster were to get a tbp (I think?).

Neil3030

Well I reckon Ulster would prefer Leinster in the Aviva to an away trip to France, no?

Eod100

Neil3030 wrote: »

Well I reckon Ulster would prefer Leinster in the Aviva to an away trip to France, no?

Possibly yeah. Have beaten Racing at home but they're a different proposition away

Neil3030

Easier for fans to make the trip too.

Sirius Boner

Is there a chance Munster could finish 6th instead of 5th does anyone know?

ShatterProof

Sirius Boner wrote: »

Is there a chance Munster could finish 6th instead of 5th does anyone know?

Group winners will be 5th no matter how many points they have.

Burkie1203

Sirius Boner wrote: »

Is there a chance Munster could finish 6th instead of 5th does anyone know?

Munster are either away to Edinburgh or Montpellier

Or Home to Embra or Monty

A lot of teams will be very happy that Embra v Monty is on Friday

Monty win 4-0/4-1 and any sort of Munster win is a home QF

Monty win 5-1/5-2 and there is a heap of permutations.

A big Monty win 5-0 and a 20+ point margin means Munster need TBP win or 4-0 win but needing to do so by so many points.

Embra win means Glasgow and Leinster are qualified
If Monty get no more then 1 match point Ulster are qualified with a LBP or if they get nothing only an Exeter 5-2 win can trouble them.

troyzer

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Munster are either away to Edinburgh or Montpellier

Or Home to Embra or Monty

A lot of teams will be very happy that Embra v Monty is on Friday

Monty win 4-0/4-1 and any sort of Munster win is a home QF

Monty win 5-1/5-2 and there is a heap of permutations.

A big Monty win 5-0 and a 20+ point margin means Munster need TBP win or 4-0 win but needing to do so by so many points.

Embra win means Glasgow and Leinster are qualified
If Monty get no more then 1 match point Ulster are qualified with a LBP or if they get nothing only an Exeter 5-2 win can trouble them.

This needs some sort of flow chart.

Eod100

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Munster are either away to Edinburgh or Montpellier

Or Home to Embra or Monty

A lot of teams will be very happy that Embra v Monty is on Friday

Monty win 4-0/4-1 and any sort of Munster win is a home QF

Monty win 5-1/5-2 and there is a heap of permutations.

A big Monty win 5-0 and a 20+ point margin means Munster need TBP win or 4-0 win but needing to do so by so many points.

Embra win means Glasgow and Leinster are qualified
If Monty get no more then 1 match point Ulster are qualified with a LBP or if they get nothing only an Exeter 5-2 win can trouble them.

I think Munster will be targeting a 5-0 win (or 5-1) win anyway, but after Friday that might not be enough for home qf.

You'd expect 2 wins for Leinster and Toulouse (2 tbp wins potentially too) so think they're both through.

Former Former

troyzer wrote: »

This needs some sort of flow chart.

Basically, if Edinburgh win, by any margin, Munster cannot overtake them no matter what happens and will be away in the quarter-finals*.


*If Edinburgh win, Munster can still get a home QF but it will require Leinster or Racing to lose.

Eod100

Former Former wrote: »

Basically, if Edinburgh win, by any margin, Munster cannot overtake them no matter what happens and will be away in the quarter-finals*.


*If Edinburgh win, Munster can still get a home QF but it will require Leinster or Racing to lose.

Yup. That failure to get a tbp vs Castres could be costly. Edinburgh could well get 5 on Friday but extra point could have been big difference for Munster. What's done is done though!

troyzer

Former Former wrote: »

Basically, if Edinburgh win, by any margin, Munster cannot overtake them no matter what happens and will be away in the quarter-finals*.


*If Edinburgh win, Munster can still get a home QF but it will require Leinster or Racing to lose.

That is much more succinct. Thank you.

Former Former

Eod100 wrote: »

Yup. That failure to get a tbp vs Castres could be costly. Edinburgh could well get 5 on Friday but extra point could have been big difference for Munster. What's done is done though!

Meh, no big deal. Yeah it's an away quarter-final, but it's (most likely) an away quarter-final in Edinburgh. That shouldn't be a daunting trip, compared to going to Saracens, Racing or Leinster/Toulouse.

Plenty still to be ironed out in the final weekend.

Leinster best chance of top 2 is Racing not getting a bonus point, I've no expectation that either Saracens or Racing will lose but only 4 for Racing tips the scales to Leinster.

I fear for Munster. Exeter were better in the Aviva last season than they were at home and this is a winner takes all game. A full Thomand park hopfully the difference.

Ulster need to do what they couldn't do last season. Win away from home on the last weekend of the pool stages.

Would be great to have all three provinces in the final 8. Pro14 teams lead 3 of the 5 pools with a realistic chance of having 5 of the final 8 teams.

Let's call a spade a spade - the Pro14 is the top league in Europe.

Eod100

Former Former wrote: »

Meh, no big deal. Yeah it's an away quarter-final, but it's (most likely) an away quarter-final in Edinburgh. That shouldn't be a daunting trip, compared to going to Saracens, Racing or Leinster/Toulouse.

Wouldn't be daunted by it but would have been nice to have home qf all the same. The record at TP and convenience of getting there all a plus. Don't think a trip to any of those was on the cards for qf, unless Munster finished as runner-up, but yeah Edinburgh definitely preferable to any of them.

aloooof

troyzer wrote: »

Leinster to beat Saracens in the final handy enough. Saracens don't match up well at all.

Massively underestimating Saracens here, imo.

Buer

Former Former wrote: »

Meh, no big deal. Yeah it's an away quarter-final, but it's (most likely) an away quarter-final in Edinburgh. That shouldn't be a daunting trip, compared to going to Saracens, Racing or Leinster/Toulouse.

It's not daunting in the same way a trip to Saracens or Racing would be but it's going to be a really interesting one. Edinburgh right now remind me a little of Scarlets in 2007 (although not quite as good) when they were on fire and beat Munster comfortably in the QF.

It's going to be a matter of fitness and form, I think. If the quarter final was played this month, I reckon Edinburgh would be in with a great shout. Their form over the past 2 months has been brilliant. But the 6N is coming at the worst possible time for them and will really break up their momentum and sending them into a camp of grim mediocrity.

Munster, on the other hand, are in very good form but will break to go into another winning culture with Ireland which will only benefit them. If they lose a key man or two during the 6N to injuries, it could be significant but, right now, I think they're 7 point favourites if they go to Edinburgh.

Buer

aloooof wrote: »

Massively underestimating Saracens here, imo.

In a one off game against Saracens in Newcastle with both teams fit, I would make Saracens marginal favourites.

troyzer

Buer wrote: »

In a one off game against Saracens in Newcastle with both teams fit, I would make Saracens marginal favourites.

Really? A fully fit Leinster?

I do rate Saracens and they're a good team. I just don't think they match up well in particular against Leinster. They've got a much thinner squad as well so it's less likely they'll be able to field a winning team. If Billy V is out, they're goosed.

thebaz

I think its good for the tournament to see the Scottish teams do well - like to see one of them go on a run - would help overall profile of tournament

prawnsambo

troyzer wrote: »

Really? A fully fit Leinster?

I do rate Saracens and they're a good team. I just don't think they match up well in particular against Leinster. They've got a much thinner squad as well so it's less likely they'll be able to field a winning team. If Billy V is out, they're goosed.

They're a different team when Billy V is playing. He gives them so much go forward ball and they almost always make gain line success when he carries. And that's their meat and drink really.

errlloyd

https://www.facebook.com/116435835078574/posts/2028660803856058/

Tries of the round. Between Stockcube and Johnstone for me.

Can I just note. I thought the quality of rugby this weekend was excellent. A dry, broke January meant I watched 7 live games (including Clermont, which is too many). But pretty much every one of them entertained. Bar Sarries Lyon.

Eod100

Buer wrote: »

In a one off game against Saracens in Newcastle with both teams fit, I would make Saracens marginal favourites.

In a way I see them as similar style teams. On the day in a final it's eithers to win. Just look at Leinster Racing last year to see how tight finals can be. Think if match is referred as it should be judging by their game vs Lyon, they could be at greater risk of getting a player sin binned, which could have big impact on game.

Then again maybe Munster could beat Saracens away (early days yet I know..). We're due a semi-final win one of these days.. :P

Dog Botherer

troyzer wrote: »

This needs some sort of flow chart.

jacothelad

Neil3030 wrote: »

Well I reckon Ulster would prefer Leinster in the Aviva to an away trip to France, no?

I don't think I'm being disloyal when I say it doesn't matter much in terms of the outcome.

yerrahbah

https://twitter.com/Murray_Kinsella/status/1084868466962808832

Burkie1203

Good to see at least one English Journalist calling out Young on this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/alexshawsport/status/1084816485757997056?s=19

Dog Botherer

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Good to see at least one English Journalist calling out Young on this nonsense.

https://twitter.com/alexshawsport/status/1084816485757997056?s=19

Blood & Mud called bull**** on it on their latest podcast too. And they almost never disagree with Dai!

stephen_n

aloooof wrote: »

Massively underestimating Saracens here, imo.

Not really surprising given the poster.

Both teams with fully fit squads it would be so close it would be nearly impossible to call. Sarries would be slight favorites imo in that scenario though.

troyzer

stephen_n wrote: »

Not really surprising given the poster.

Both teams with fully fit squads it would be so close it would be nearly impossible to call. Sarries would be slight favorites imo in that scenario though.

Sound for the snide comment.

I think Saracens are a great team. I just think man for man, they do not match up well against Leinster in particular. I think they would beat Racing for example.

But I also think Racing would beat Leinster.

aloooof

Out of interest, what positions / players / match-ups in particular do you think Leinster are so superior to Saracens in to merit a handy enough win?

troyzer

aloooof wrote: »

Out of interest, what positions / players / match-ups in particular do you think Leinster are so superior to Saracens in to merit a handy enough win?

Saracens rely on excellent breakdown work to generate quick ball and exploit defenders out of position.

Leinster do the same thing but I think they're better at it. And I think they're likely to suffocate Saracens at the breakdown as a result. Thus denying Saracens their entire attacking impetus. I'd be more worried about Racing because offensively they're much more about individuals making epic plays and defensively they're more about smashing carriers back in contact. Saracens live and die by the breakdown and I think it's somewhere Leinster can and would beat them.

I'm not just pulling this out of my arse. Saracens were beaten well by Leinster in the quarters last year for a reason, not discounting the number of system and roster changes since then.

Podge_irl

troyzer wrote: »

I'm not just pulling this out of my arse. Saracens were beaten well by Leinster in the quarters last year for a reason, not discounting the number of system and roster changes since thenn.

Saracens were well beaten at home but Racing were also beaten on neutral ground (albeit less easily).

troyzer

Podge_irl wrote: »

Saracens were well beaten at home but Racing were also beaten on neutral ground (albeit less easily).

I'd still rather have Saracens over Racing in the final. I honestly think Racing are going to be the ones to win it this year.

They tripped up against Ulster but they were very un-French in how committed they were until the final whistle. Their owner apparently is gunning for European success as well.

They really should have won that game against Leinster and since then their squad has only gotten better and Leinster's has gotten weaker.

Dubinusa

I think Sarries would be favorites in a English venue.
They are a class side with brilliant coaching.
They have many internationals and the nucleus have been together for quite some time.
Farrell, makes a huge difference, as he can splay the ball around the field and play territory.
The pack is very good and the backs are all good too!
Last year is irrelevant, as we've had some turnover and I think we're not as good.
Repeating the double would be astounding. It is of course very difficult and we are reliant on squad health and depth, like other squads.
I'd be happy to win one tourney, but if we were to win both, I'd be mega happy!!!

troyzer

Dubinusa wrote: »

I think Sarries would be favorites in a English venue.
They are a class side with brilliant coaching.
They have many internationals and the nucleus have been together for quite some time.
Farrell, makes a huge difference, as he can splay the ball around the field and play territory.
The pack is very good and the backs are all good too!
Last year is irrelevant, as we've had some turnover and I think we're not as good.
Repeating the double would be astounding. It is of course very difficult and we are reliant on squad health and depth, like other squads.
I'd be happy to win one tourney, but if we were to win both, I'd be mega happy!!!

I think Leinster will lose to Racing in the semi and lose to Munster in the Pro14 final.

My honest appraisal as a Leinster fan. I think we're just that much weaker than last year.

Though it must be said that on their day, they're the best team in the competition.

errlloyd

I think toulouse are better than Racing. And we played as poorly as we've played to lose to them by one at home. That gives me hope.

troyzer

errlloyd wrote: »

I think toulouse are better than Racing. And we played as poorly as we've played to lose to them by one at home. That gives me hope.

I think Toulouse would beat Racing but I still think Racing are the strongest team overall.

It's not just about which teams are best. Matchups are important.

aloooof

troyzer wrote: »

Saracens rely on excellent breakdown work to generate quick ball and exploit defenders out of position.

Leinster do the same thing but I think they're better at it. And I think they're likely to suffocate Saracens at the breakdown as a result. Thus denying Saracens their entire attacking impetus. I'd be more worried about Racing because offensively they're much more about individuals making epic plays and defensively they're more about smashing carriers back in contact. Saracens live and die by the breakdown and I think it's somewhere Leinster can and would beat them.

I'm not just pulling this out of my arse. Saracens were beaten well by Leinster in the quarters last year for a reason not discounting the number of system and roster changes since then.

Every team in the world tries to generate quick ball at the breakdown, but the larger point is that I don't think the same conditions are applicable if they face each other in a final this year, because:

1. Personnel changes for Leinster you mentioned. I think it's generally accepted Leinster have a weaker squad this season as compared last.

2. Leinster wouldn't have home advantage. We know that counts.

3. Billy Vunipola. Imo, he's that good he deserves a mention of his own (and admittedly there's a big question mark about his ability to remain injury free) but his go forward ball makes it easier for Saracens to generate the quick ball you mentioned.

That's not to say Leinster couldn't / wouldn't win, but I think it'd be far from the facile victory you were making out.

troyzer

aloooof wrote: »

Every team in the world tries to generate quick ball at the breakdown, but the larger point is that I don't think the same conditions are applicable if they face each other in a final this year, because:

1. Personnel changes for Leinster you mentioned. I think it's generally accepted Leinster have a weaker squad this season as compared last.

2. Leinster wouldn't have home advantage. We know that counts.

3. Billy Vunipola. Imo, he's that good he deserves a mention of his own (and admittedly there's a big question mark about his ability to remain injury free) but his go forward ball makes it easier for Saracens to generate the quick ball you mentioned.

That's not to say Leinster couldn't / wouldn't win, but I think it'd be far from the facile victory you were making out.

Fair enough, we disagree then. I think Leinster would shut down their quick ball earlier and make it almost impossible for Saracens to move the ball.

Buer

troyzer wrote: »

They really should have won that game against Leinster and since then their squad has only gotten better and Leinster's has gotten weaker.

Not really sue how Racing have gotten stronger. They've been significantly weakened at outhalf by losing Carter and Tales and replacing them with only Finn Russell who is the most unreliable top tier outhalf around. Lambie still hasn't played since the final and the ACL tear.

They also lost Nyanga (an ever present for them last season) and Andreu (another starter from the final). The only other significant player they brought in aside from Russell is Zebo. After that, they brought in several squad players.

They're another year more experienced but some of their key players like Ryan and Claasen are a year closer to retirement as well as guys like Rocokoco and Census Johnston who have gone from being in the first 23 to being phased out as they try to blood new players.

Racing in Paris is one thing. I don't think they have the depth up front to beat Saracens or Leinster in a neutral venue this season.