Storm Hector : Wind Warning :Weds 13 PM to Thurs 14th AM

HeidiHeidi

Wind whipping up a bit now (sadly I don't have any means to measure it), from the south/east and weirdly warm and damp. Freaky! :eek:

weisses

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Wind whipping up a bit now (sadly I don't have any means to measure it), from the south/east and weirdly warm and damp. Freaky! :eek:

I have a solution but it involves a high vantage point and a full bladder

Probably not an option

Meteorite58

ICON was slow to pick up on this, now showing very strong winds and further South than the other models on the latest 12z and looking very strong in the North later.


Just see that Met Eireann have included more counties in the Yellow warning.





Hirlam showing the strongest winds further up the country in the W, NW and N

Meteorite58

Met Eireann

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, Clare and Kerry
Southwest to west winds, later veering westerly, associated with Storm Hector, will reach mean speeds of 55 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr. Over Leinster winds will be strongest between 0200 and 0900.

Issued: Wednesday 13 June 2018 16:00

Valid from Wednesday 13 June 2018 21:00 to Thursday 14 June 2018 10:00

Meteorite58

The latest runs out. APERGE just coming out but would suggest Clare should go under an Orange warning ( very close to it either way).

GFS 12Z

Graces7

Nasty ..

"High spring tides are likely to coincide with the strongest winds leading to a risk of coastal flooding and wave overtopping." for Donegal, Mayo, Galway, Sligo.

Safe here thankfully afaik. Must ask if there has ever been flooding but none in last winter..

Oneiric 3

Drizzle with attitude here giving rates between 1.5 & 3.5mm/h all afternoon. Thirsty plants and trees and soil will greatly appreciate it though. 14.0c / 96rh. Gentle breeze.

Meteorite58

ECM 0Z 850 hPa Wind speeds.

Wonder if we could hit by a sting jet somewhere in the W. NW or N in the early hours ?

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z taking a route more WSW to ENE with the strongest winds .

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1006924856204627968

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1006928923601620992

Graces7

Is this unusual for this time of year?

Meteorite58

Graces7 wrote: »

Is this unusual for this time of year?

I would have thought so yes. Usually only see very strong jets and LP as low as this and dropping as fast in the winter when there is bigger temperature gradients . Not unheard of, dont have facts to hand but maybe sryanbruen might be able to dig up details of summer storms.

Good piece here by Nick Finnis https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8966-here-comes-hector---unseasonable-june-windstorm-for-the-north

RobertKK

We normally get these type of storms from October to March. Summer storms like this are unusual. We can get windy episodes from ex-hurricanes, but this is more typical of a winter wind storm.

P_1

When are we expecting this to blow over folks? I have 200km to cycle in Co Clare on Friday and Saturday and would rather not face character building weather

HeidiHeidi

Headlands and islands slowly disappearing from view here (NW Donegal)

Akrasia

Is this just a wind event or are we expecting heavy rain too?

M.T. Cranium

P_1 wrote: »

When are we expecting this to blow over folks? I have 200km to cycle in Co Clare on Friday and Saturday and would rather not face character building weather

This will be done by mid-day Thursday in Clare and most of Ireland, mid-afternoon latest for any remnant strong gusts in eastern counties.

Your main concern for cycling on Friday and Saturday will be occasional rain.

P_1

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This will be done by mid-day Thursday in Clare and most of Ireland, mid-afternoon latest for any remnant strong gusts in eastern counties.

Your main concern for cycling on Friday and Saturday will be occasional rain.

Thanks a million, don't worry a bit of rain is nothing to be concerned about

Meteorite58

12Z ECM rolling out, only comes in 3 hrly frames. The ECM has been very consistent over the previous runs.

M.T. Cranium

As to how unusual, I just set the wetterzentrale archive on 14th June 00z and went year by year through 164 years of maps, only two of them looked capable of producing 80 km/hr gusts near Donegal Bay (those were in 1917 and 1951). About a dozen looked capable of topping 60 km/hr. Nothing looked quite as intense as tonight's set-up even when I took potential candidates into 24-48h in either direction. So you could say for mid-June this is quite unusual.

Oscar Bravo

Very high tide at Westport Quay this evening.

SleetAndSnow

Not in the warning but wanna update anyway wet and pretty strong gusts and constant wind in cork city.

Meteorite58

Beginning to take shape well off the West coast and as Nick Finnis pointed out can see the jet streak ( blue streak ).

Meteorite58

Big Seas

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

As to how unusual, I just set the wetterzentrale archive on 14th June 00z and went year by year through 164 years of maps, only two of them looked capable of producing 80 km/hr gusts near Donegal Bay (those were in 1917 and 1951). About a dozen looked capable of topping 60 km/hr. Nothing looked quite as intense as tonight's set-up even when I took potential candidates into 24-48h in either direction. So you could say for mid-June this is quite unusual.

According to Met Éireann, the wind records for June in Ireland (since 1942) are:

96 km/hr 10-minute mean wind speed at Malin Head on 24th June 1962. The same station had a maximum wind gust of 137 km/hr on the same day. Here's the reanalysis chart below for midnight on 24th June 1962. According to the historical data, Malin Head also reported a maximum wind gust of 133 km/hr on the 23rd June 1962.

Proper Summer windstorms are very unusual and do not happen very often; this is evident by the lack of data available for them. Examples include this one 24th June 1962, 25th July 1988 (minimum pressure of 978.0hPa at Belmullet), 14th August 1979, 14th August 1959 (minimum pressure of 967.8hPa at Belmullet). The August 1959 storm was during a long extended fine Summer which makes it that more remarkable. The July 1988 windstorm featured the strongest Summer 10-minute mean wind speed in Ireland since 1942 with 102 km/hr at Malin Head.

A notable June storm occurred on 8th June 1843 (we only have access to reanalysis charts since 1851 unfortunately) with pressure dropping to 975.3hPa at Phoenix Park on the day. Sadly there isn't anymore information that I know of in the public domain online than that about this storm.

I'll be having a whizz through Malin Head's historical data to find any notable low pressure or wind gusts at the station in its records during the meteorological Summer season.



All data comes from Met Éireann.

SweetCaliber

Any predictions on how bad the wind will be in Dublin Airport tomorrow morning ? Due to fly out at 6.45! Might be like a rollercoaster ride :pac:

Artane2002

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Any predictions on how bad the wind will be in Dublin Airport tomorrow morning ? Due to fly out at 6.45! Might be like a rollercoaster ride :pac:

Looks windy but I doubt it will be something significant enough to cancel your flight. Have an enjoyable flight!

pad199207

Rain has stopped. Just breezy not really windy yet. North Mayo

pauldry

40knots in Belmullet n Mace

Its pickin up

not an overly wet windstorm

rained all day but only 2.5mm on weather station n storm isnt carrying much moisture only on North side

Still a number of wet days in the coming few days should help some of the yellow grass

Darwin

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Any predictions on how bad the wind will be in Dublin Airport tomorrow morning ? Due to fly out at 6.45! Might be like a rollercoaster ride :pac:

From the Airport TAF (Terminal Area Forecast):

Probability 30% :
Temporary
from 14 at 05 UTC to 14 at 09 UTC
Wind 30 kt from the West/Southwest with gusts up to 50 kt

So a 30% chance of gusts of almost 100Km/h or so, at least would get you airborne pretty quickly.

PokeHerKing

Fierce windy in D24. Birds nest in the tree outside my house looks done for!

cotton

Power has gone in Greystones after a big gust.

sparrowcar

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Any predictions on how bad the wind will be in Dublin Airport tomorrow morning ? Due to fly out at 6.45! Might be like a rollercoaster ride :pac:

You'll get out ok but will be delayed. With those sort of winds and direction dual runway operations will be suspended so will slow the departure rate down at that time.

Artane2002

sparrowcar wrote: »

You'll get out ok but will be delayed. With those sort of winds and direction dual runway operations will be suspended so will slow the departure rate down at that time.

I don't think Dublin Airport uses the two runways at the same time if that's what you mean, even in good weather.

Edit: Looks like I am misunderstanding you, seeing that you post on the aviation forum, I assume that you know your stuff!

Oneiric 3

The trees around here seem to dancing a merry dance here at the moment. Obviously getting all hyped up and excited about the big rave up tonight.

M.T. Cranium

Good reporting by sryanbruen there, I had a look at that 1962 storm and it appeared to peak around midnight 23-24 June so the two days had similar max gusts. And if that's the strongest wind ever in June, it's worth noting that the maps never show as strong a gradient as the current prog charts for late tonight, nor do they show as low a central pressure (it is always above 995 mbs) on those 1962 maps although perhaps a lack of precision from less marine data? Although the way UK buoys have been going, perhaps they had more marine data in 1962.

19z (20h) M6 buoy reporting winds SW 30 knots gusting to 51 knots, SLP 990.9 mbs. -- that site will probably see peak gusts next 2-3 hours. Pressure at M4 buoy is now 993.0 mbs.

Peak gusts on land in Connacht around 0400h and west Ulster around 0600h.

JCX BXC

Artane2002 wrote: »

I don't think Dublin Airport uses the two runways at the same time if that's what you mean, even in good weather.

In optimal weather they use dual ops for a period in the morning, using both RWY28 and 34.

pauldry

41 knot Casement is impressive for there

power of about 2000 people is gone nationwide from wind

Greystones and Cavan

pressure 995 in Sligo

Artane2002

JCX BXC wrote: »

In optimal weather they use dual ops for a period in the morning, using both RWY28 and 34.

That's new to me. Going off topic here but I assume that's when winds are either calm or very light?

To make this on topic, I'll just say that the rain hasn't wet the ground properly here and it is breezy, not really windy yet.

Elmer Blooker

Great research Sryan. I can remember someone who was old enough to remember telling me how shocking June 1958 was. I found this chart, though not stormy looking still an appalling chart for mid summer!

stevek93

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The trees around here seem to dancing a merry dance here at the moment. Obviously getting all hyped up and excited about the big rave up tonight.

Unce unce unce

stevek93

Picking up in Dublin 5 here now reports of 52kph gusts

Harry Palmr

It's strange to enjoy the sound of a storm, albeit not a big one in Waterford, outside.

nacho libre

What a year it has been so far weather wise. And only five months or so to go till the winter of 1739/40 is repeated :pac:

Xenji

Malin Head gusting 44kts on the 22.00 report, Belmullet 43kts.

Oneiric 3

Latest WV. 'Dry slot' quite prominent behind the approaching cold front. You can also see where the occlusion has separated from the jet stream:

pauldry

you can also see that the good weather has well and truly fcuked off

oh my niave optimism

Harry Palmr

pauldry wrote: »

you can also see that the good weather has well and truly fcuked off

oh my niave optimism

It's back on Tuesday. This is but a short break.

km79

Harry Palmr wrote: »

pauldry wrote: »

you can also see that the good weather has well and truly fcuked off

oh my niave optimism

It's back on Tuesday. This is but a short break.

Yr.no has it to start raining here Tuesday am and not stop until Thursday am !
Rain or showers every day until then

Meteorite58

Latest ICON 18Z now bringing the strongest winds in a bit further up the country more in line with the ECM .