Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

Meteorite58

About as cloud free as it gets.

NASSA Sat Pic Sun 24-6-18

RobertKK

Maybe NAVGEM was correct the other day

Artane2002

Damo76 wrote: »

2017 was mixed, hot at 1st with a cool ending and followed by a late winter. I see similarities with the following 2 years; Summer 1983 hot followed by cold winter 83/84. Summer 1984 was warm followed by a mixed winter of 1984/1985 mild to start, severe in the middle and average towards the end. A severe January or February is long overdue. Maybe 2019.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Personally, I don't think we had a late winter. We had northerlies in November, a slider event on the 10th of December and plenty of cold and frost in December, better than the last two winters!

Gaoth Laidir

Claremorris seems to have a problem with its dewpoint sensor this afternoon. It stopped reporting at 6 pm, after going from

8.0 at 3 pm
2.5 at 4 pm
0.8 at 5 pm

and is now back reporting 8.3 at 7 pm.

Mullaghteelin

Artane2002 wrote: »

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Personally, I don't think we had a late winter. We had northerlies in November, a slider event on the 10th of December and plenty of cold and frost in December, better than the last two winters!

Everyone was moaning how it was the longest winter they can remember. It started in November and continued without respite until well into Spring.

We are LONG overdue a good August. We have had some decent Junes and Julys, only for it to go downhill in August.

snowstorm445

Artane2002 wrote: »

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Personally, I don't think we had a late winter. We had northerlies in November, a slider event on the 10th of December and plenty of cold and frost in December, better than the last two winters!

And a half-decent northwesterly incursion in January if I remember correctly, brought quite a bit of snow to most of the country for a day or two. Paled in comparison with Storm Emma/Beast from the East obviously.

Gaoth Laidir

Max today

26.5 Oak Park
26.3 Shannon

Oneiric 3

If there was a 'problem' with Claremorris DP readings, then odd how a similar problem occurred here.

My DP readings today, and while not 'official', are pretty accurate for my region:



Even more curious how the N17 station also encountered a similar problem earlier too. A lot of coincidence going on here.

Kermit.de.frog

Stunning ECM to 168, 30c odds on now to be breached (possibly well breached as the higher res models show). The heat lasts right through until at least next Sunday.

John.Icy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Not entirely true. There will be variability in wind direction at times as well. :cool:

After tomorrow it looks fairly like east based breezes for Dublin on several models to me but I'm sure there's nothing set in stone about that. Variability would be welcomed as it only takes 2 or so hours to really heat things up.

Nevertheless. A stunning period on the cards. Wonder how close to 33 we could get.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If there was a 'problem' with Claremorris DP readings, then odd how a similar problem occurred here.

My DP readings today, and while not 'official', are pretty accurate for my region:



Even more curious how the N17 station also encountered a similar problem earlier too. A lot of coincidence going on here.

Seems legit so. The only coincidence seems to be its lack of dp report at 6 pm.

Foggy Jew

Not a meteoroligist. Just a vitamin D starved punter. Sat out in back garden & wallowed. I don't understand your weather graphics....I don't know what an ECm is, all I know is the sun shone, all day long. And I soaked it all up. I suffer from psoriasis & sun cures it.

Gaoth Laidir

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1010954380756111361?s=19

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Seems legit so. The only coincidence seems to be its lack of dp report at 6 pm.

Could be a case where they thought the readings were suspect given how unusually low they were, but back up into the 30%s again up there, but still in the 20%s here, as they still are at the N17 station. Must be due to some local geographical quirk.

Edit: 'Cloonboo' (what a funny name) RS station SW of Tuam currently reading 29%, while another one N of Athenry is reading 30% presently. 25% at the N17 station. 26% here.

Artane2002

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Everyone was moaning how it was the longest winter they can remember. It started in November and continued without respite until well into Spring.

We are LONG overdue a good August. We have had some decent Junes and Julys, only for it to go downhill in August.

I totally agree... we are well overdue a nice August.

Artane2002

snowstorm445 wrote: »

And a half-decent northwesterly incursion in January if I remember correctly, brought quite a bit of snow to most of the country for a day or two. Paled in comparison with Storm Emma/Beast from the East obviously.

Yes, that was very potent for a northwesterly. It gave me a dusting here near the east coast. That was my first dusting/lying snow since March 2016. February was really good though, the best out of the 3 winter months. The severe cold/snow at the end and I saw falling snow/flurries on a good few days throughout the month, 10 maybe?

Oneiric 3

Highest temp I can find on this evening's ECM is 29c in Wicklow/Carlow region on this coming Friday. They can have it.


Locally, this model is showing a top temp of 26c on Tuesday, which is considerably less than the 30c plus shown by Arrpeege and Harmonie runs this after.

Akrasia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Highest temp I can find on this evening's ECM is 29c in Wicklow/Carlow region on this coming Friday. They can have it.


Locally, this model is showing a top temp of 26c on Tuesday, which is considerably less than the 30c plus shown by Arrpeege and Harmonie runs this after.

I'm just wondering, how much do the models take the stored heat in the dry ground and buildings and lakes etc into account when they project temperatures a week in advance?

The same air conditions arriving on a saturated marshy ground would result in cooler maximum temperatures than that air and sunshine over bone dry ground and warm lakes and rivers.

Meteorite58

Would have thought that none of these models are prone to exaggerating.











ARPEGE the highest temperature prediction.......we will see.

ninebeanrows

Arpege and HARMONIE are going overkill with the temperatures- certaintly HARMONIE did today, was going for 28/29 in wide areas and locally upto 30.

So caution with those Arpege numbers.

Some high, locally mid-level cloud to spill over us tomorrow which will probably limit maxima exceeding 27 deg. C.

mg1982

Felt a lot warmer today here in the north west but that heat is more comfortable to deal with than the last warm spell thankfully. High humidity makes it feel a lot more uncomfortable.

Have a feeling that temp record could get broken this week.

sdanseo

Interestingly, ECM 12Z from Friday undercooked max temps today by between 2 and 5 degrees.

Edit: even the 12Z ARPEGE from today undercooked max temps at a range of 3 hours (!) by 1-2 degrees

So if we look forward 48hrs and apply the same logic Arpege could well be on to something.

Shannon forecast 22 actual 26.3
Oak Park forecast 24 actual 26.5
Casement forecast 23 actual 25.7

cyclops999

Miss Ryan getting very excited on the 9 o'clock news forecast

Mars Bar

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Could be a case where they thought the readings were suspect given how unusually low they were, but back up into the 30%s again up there, but still in the 20%s here, as they still are at the N17 station. Must be due to some local geographical quirk.

Edit: 'Cloonboo' (what a funny name) RS station SW of Tuam currently reading 29%, while another one N of Athenry is reading 30% presently. 25% at the N17 station. 26% here.

It is pronounced more like "Clun-boo" incase you wanted to know. All of my mother's stock are Cloonboo through and through!

thecretinhop

https://www.met.ie/climate/weather-extreme-records

amadangomor

Artane2002 wrote: »

I totally agree... we are well overdue a nice August.

My memories of even warm/warmish Augusts in recent years seem to involve a lot of hazy high cloud. Weather Gurus - is this a pattern for Ireland? and if so is there a reason for it?

RobertKK

cyclops999 wrote: »

Miss Ryan getting very excited on the 9 o'clock news forecast

With the words 'possible records' in the bottom right corner.

testicles

This post has been deleted.

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

I'm just wondering, how much do the models take the stored heat in the dry ground and buildings and lakes etc into account when they project temperatures a week in advance?

The same air conditions arriving on a saturated marshy ground would result in cooler maximum temperatures than that air and sunshine over bone dry ground and warm lakes and rivers.

Models do have soil moisture and land-use type in their physics, so in theory they can take them into account. The first few days may be slightly off, but as the observational data are fed into them each day the accuracy should be better refined for the next day.

irishrover99

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Seems legit so. The only coincidence seems to be its lack of dp report at 6 pm.

Jaysus mate. Can you make it clearer what DP means.
I had a google and it came up with some very NSFW links 😀