Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

lawred2

you guys were bang on about de schnoow so no reason to doubt you now

squarecircles

is it my imagination but have we been scraping close to 30 degrees at least once every summer the past 5 years.

anyone have the maximum summer temperatures since 2013

sryanbruen

For your interest, here's the GFS 06z upper air temperature and thickness charts. 564 dam line way to the north.

Lenny5

So Monday onwards seems to be the best weather aftet a decent wkend would that be right?

sryanbruen

squarecircles wrote: »

is it my imagination but have we been scraping close to 30 degrees at least once every summer the past 5 years.

anyone have the maximum summer temperatures since 2013

Not just for since 2013, every month since January 1987

sryanbruen wrote: »

Maximum air temperatures for each month in Ireland of the following years (will update with more years soon)

Year|Jan|Feb|Mar|Apr|May|Jun|Jul|Aug|Sep|Oct|Nov|Dec|Ann
2018|13.8|14.3|13.9|20.0|26.3|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-
2017|12.9|14.9|19.2|18.7|26.1|28.6|26.2|23.2|23.4|19.9|16.6|14.5|28.6
2016|15.6|15.0|16.6|19.2|25.8|25.7|30.4|26.0|26.6|18.5|17.4|17.1|30.4
2015|17.3|15.3|18.5|21.5|21.2|26.1|25.6|24.6|21.4|19.8|20.1|16.6|26.1
2014|13.6|13.0|17.0|21.0|23.8|27.6|28.8|23.8|25.0|19.5|16.0|15.0|28.8
2013|15.7|14.1|15.9|21.5|21.5|26.8|31.0|25.0|25.0|21.6|16.6|16.8|31.0
2012|15.0|18.0|22.6|16.4|28.3|24.2|25.5|27.0|24.7|17.7|15.6|15.0|28.3
2011|15.5|15.7|19.5|23.5|20.6|25.5|24.4|23.6|25.7|21.4|17.3|15.0|25.5
2010|12.6|11.9|16.3|21.0|26.8|26.4|25.3|24.9|24.5|20.6|19.0|12.9|26.8
2009|13.1|14.0|18.9|19.1|26.5|28.6|24.1|25.0|23.1|20.0|16.1|13.9|28.6
2008|14.8|16.3|14.6|18.6|25.0|24.9|25.9|24.9|20.9|18.3|15.5|14.0|25.0
2007|14.6|14.9|16.4|22.6|22.3|26.9|23.3|25.8|24.6|21.0|18.0|15.8|26.9
2006|13.8|14.6|15.4|18.0|24.2|27.1|32.3|28.0|23.4|19.1|15.7|14.4|32.3
2005|14.5|13.5|20.7|19.4|20.7|25.3|30.3|26.0|24.8|20.3|17.7|14.7|30.3
2004|13.8|16.7|16.9|19.9|22.7|26.8|24.5|27.3|25.6|17.4|15.1|14.0|27.3
2003|17.8|13.8|18.8|24.2|25.6|23.5|26.6|30.3|26.3|20.4|17.6|15.0|30.3
2002|15.3|15.6|19.2|20.7|21.2|22.3|25.1|25.6|22.8|22.3|17.5|13.8|25.6
2001|12.7|14.0|15.8|16.0|24.6|24.1|28.4|25.5|22.5|21.2|16.8|15.8|28.4
2000|14.3|15.9|17.8|18.8|24.7|28.1|27.6|25.2|24.5|19.4|15.6|14.7|28.1
1999|14.3|14.6|18.9|21.3|21.5|24.6|28.0|25.0|25.9|20.5|16.1|13.1|28.0
1998|18.5|17.3|19.4|16.9|25.1|24.7|23.2|26.0|25.4|20.7|17.6|16.6|26.0
1997|15.2|14.7|19.1|22.1|28.4|24.4|25.7|26.1|24.2|22.6|17.7|14.6|28.4
1996|13.4|12.5|14.9|19.0|21.4|27.0|26.6|24.5|25.0|20.3|17.9|14.0|27.0
1995|13.5|15.1|17.2|21.5|23.7|30.2|28.0|31.5|22.5|21.1|17.1|15.0|31.5
1994|13.2|12.9|16.1|20.1|21.2|25.2|25.1|24.0|22.0|20.0|16.2|16.7|25.2
1993|15.1|13.4|16.1|22.8|22.0|25.0|24.9|24.0|24.1|16.5|16.4|14.8|25.0
1992|14.6|13.7|16.8|18.0|24.9|26.5|25.0|22.1|20.5|17.8|16.6|13.7|26.5
1991|14.2|13.2|16.8|18.9|23.6|20.6|26.8|26.8|28.4|19.1|15.0|15.0|28.4
1990|14.3|15.3|17.1|22.7|25.7|21.6|27.7|29.5|23.3|19.7|18.0|13.1|29.5
1989|13.9|13.3|17.0|17.9|26.9|28.7|30.0|24.4|21.3|18.4|19.6|13.7|30.0
1988|13.9|12.5|14.0|17.9|23.1|24.5|22.0|24.5|22.6|20.1|14.5|13.8|24.5
1987|12.0|13.0|16.0|22.5|19.5|23.3|25.6|26.6|22.0|19.4|15.5|14.2|26.6


Data comes from Met Éireann.

Kermit.de.frog

Lenny5 wrote: »

So Monday onwards seems to be the best weather aftet a decent wkend would that be right?

Yes, that's pretty much it. It will be getting warmer through the weekend with warmest temperatures in the eastern half of the country - maxing up to 23 or 24 by Sunday in good sunshine.

Temperatures should be well in to the mid or hitting high twenties inland by Monday. By midweek temperatures could be touching the thirties inland. Night time temperatures will also be turning uncomfortable by Irish standards from Monday night.

You may want to invest in one of these...



I'll keep the OP updated, no major changes yet. It is still a bit out so take with a touch of caution for a couple more days.

Also for farmers obviously they would have to consider the implications of more prolonged dry weather - again this could lead to drought like conditions particularly in the east and south.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

These are the June maximum temperature records for our Irish stations to beat. Keep in mind, some of these stations only began keeping records towards the end of the 2000s.

Station|Maximum temperature|Date
Athenry|24.7|18th June 2014
Belmullet|28.3|18th June 1957
Casement Aerodrome|27.6|18th June 2000
Claremorris|29.8|30th June 1976
Cork Airport|27.5|30th June 1995
Dublin Airport|27.3|8th June 1940
Dunsany|27.0|21st June 2017
Gurteen|26.2|2nd June 2009
Malin Head|27.2|6th June 1950
Mt. Dillon|27.2|2nd June 2009
Mullingar|29.8|29th June 1949
Oak Park|26.8|2nd June 2009
Phoenix Park|28.7|6th June 1950
Shannon Airport|31.6|29th June 1976
Valentia Observatory|28.1|27th June 1995


Data comes from Met Éireann.

Athenry (Mellowes Ag college) recorded a 30 deg.C max on June 29th 1976 & 29.6 deg.C max on the following day. (from Met Eireann)

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Athenry (Mellowes Ag college) recorded a 30 deg.C max on June 29th 1976 & 29.6 deg.C max on the following day. (from Met Eireann)

That's a different station just like Carlow (Oak Park) was to the one that has been installed since 2003. I'm talking the Athenry station that was installed in 2010.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

That's a different station just like Carlow (Oak Park) was to the one that has been installed since 2003. I'm talking the Athenry station that was installed in 2010.

True, though if the newer station had been around in '76 it probably would have recorded a fairly similar figure. For what it is worth, my home town, not too far from Athenry, officially recorded a 30.5c max on June 30th that year.

Spanish Eyes

Looking forward to a spell of lovely sunshine.

I don't want to sound like a grinch, but those high temps mentioned that are similar to Southern Europe are fine in theory, but we are not geared up for them at all. It can get very uncomfortable in non air conditioned workplaces and at night for a lot of us.

Anyway I have my no.1 fan at the ready and will get those humungous bottles of water in Aldi. I'm sure we will survive, but if it is sticky and humid also, yuk. Sorry.

I love when it's around 22 -24 and sunny, no humidity. Perfect. But we take what we are given and hopefully will cope well!

budweiser6

Normally I spend all winter long on here (weather forum) excited about the possibility of a flake of snow but now.... NOW I am thrilled at the real possibility of making hay harvest this weekend BOOM!!

Gonzo

looking very warm from next Monday to about July 4th, so possibly up to two weeks of 20C+ temperatures for many of us. If I get 26C at some point during this spell I will be very happy. The last warm spell was a bit of a let down with the Irish Sea easterly breezes killing off most of the warmth.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

looking very warm from next Monday to about July 4th, so possibly up to two weeks of 20C+ temperatures for many of us.

Im off to the south of spain for a week on the 7th of july, how will i cope with this much sun.

Mullaghteelin

The pattern looks broadly similar to the final ten days of June 1995. That spell started out with cooler air, as the high initially sat just to our west.
The heat then gradually built day by day as the high sat on top of us, with temperatures peaking on the final day or two of the month.
The soils were already bone dry that year also.

If anyone hates the heat, come to coastal north county Dublin! We'll struggle to hit 20C if theres any sort of sea breeze! :P

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO really rising those temperatures by Sunday and in to Monday.



The Atlantic weather systems are well a way to the northwest with the jet stream and impotent to break the block. That's the continental flow I reference in the OP. Get that and the temperatures will soar.

sryanbruen

GFS 12z brings the warmth forward but as a result, it becomes more normal by the end of next week. Classic GFS.

Reggie.

Is there any sign of rain at all in the future or a guesstimate at least?

I know a few farmers that are in severe dire straits with some having thier wells dried up already. Many crops have already failed.

Looks like if this prolonged hot weather continues for much longer we will be facing a fodder crisis at best at the end of the year or serious damage done to the agri sector where the national herd will be devastated through culling. The point of no return is fast approaching for some individuals.

Kermit.de.frog

Reggie. wrote: »

Is there any sign of rain at all in the future or a guesstimate at least?

I know a few farmers that are in severe dire straits with some having thier wells dried up already. Many crops have already failed.

Looks like if this prolonged hot weather continues for much longer we will be facing a fodder crisis at best at the end of the year or serious damage done to the agri sector where the national herd will be devastated through culling. The point of no return is fast approaching for some individuals.

I know this is a difficult period especially after the snow disruption as well.

Farmers need to prepare as best they can for drought conditions in the east and south of the country.

Just gonna tell it straight...

There will be some light - moderate rainfall overnight. Tonight is the last rainfall for at least the next 7 days. That is pretty much certain. Beyond that for now looks like a continuation of warm and mostly dry conditions but that's not certain and could change.

I know it doesn't help but that's what the next week at least brings.

RobertKK

Yeah the lack of rain in the east and south makes another prolonged dry period a severe situation.
The saying is 'a wet and windy May fills the barns with corn and hay', it was dry...wells are under pressure.
We have to take what comes but this isn't exactly good news, Dublin is likely to have water issues the longer this continues.
Growth is already restricted and it will only get worse.

Artane2002

Reggie. wrote: »

Is there any sign of rain at all in the future or a guesstimate at least?

I know a few farmers that are in severe dire straits with some having thier wells dried up already. Many crops have already failed.

Looks like if this prolonged hot weather continues for much longer we will be facing a fodder crisis at best at the end of the year or serious damage done to the agri sector where the national herd will be devastated through culling. The point of no return is fast approaching for some individuals.

The latest GFS shows no more than 3-4mm over the next 10 days. 10 days is a long time and things could change by then. This is assuming that you are in Westmeath like what your profile says. Some parts farther east and in the south could see nothing at all while Donegal may see something closer to 35mm.

charolais0153

sryanbruen wrote: »

In some ways, the wet year of 2017-18 (June to April) was needed or else we'd be in severe drought conditions. From July 2016 to May 2017, the large majority of the months were very dry with a notable absence of rain particularly from October 2016 to January 2017. This combined with May and June 2018 would make for some very bad drought conditions like the 1974-76 drought so we're kinda lucky it went

If june to feb 18 was average enough and march and april as thry were, it would make absolutely no difference to the state of the land atm. You cannot go from wet to drought in a month.

sryanbruen

charolais0153 wrote: »

If june to feb 18 was average enough and march and april as thry were, it would make absolutely no difference to the state of the land atm. You cannot go from wet to drought in a month.

It wouldn't be in a month. I'm talking way back to 2016 and hypothetically speaking if we didn't have as many wetter than normal months as we did during the previous year then we would be in severe drought conditions if the drier than normal months continued that began in July 2016 but fortunately they didn't.

SleetAndSnow

When do you think drought warnings would be put up? Seems pretty serious alright.

If water levels drop in dublin pressure would most likely be reduced, I can't see water levels dropping much for us in the south though to lower pressure, can't remember it happening in History (but then again it most likely did)

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/weerenradar/status/1009044910534791173


Translated from Dutch by Microsoft
It is still far away, but this map of #GFS 06z for June 28th is a perfect example of a #omega-blockade. This card taken literally would #warm mean very and very stable #zomerweer. Exciting!

Oneiric 3

As it stands, the national % of rainfall over the last 30 days is currently standing at just 58%, Naturally, given the localised nature of the rainfall during this period, some places are much drier than others.

MidMan25

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

As it stands, the national % of rainfall over the last 30 days is currently standing at just 58%, Naturally, given the localised nature of the rainfall during this period, some places are much drier than others.

May and June are typically quite dry months anyway so getting half the normal amount is bound to be noticed.

Agent_47

km79 wrote: »

I’m going on 2 weeks holiday Sunday
Dear god WHY

At least you'll get a constant 30 C not 33.3C for a few seconds

Agent_47

MidMan25 wrote: »

May and June are typically quite dry months anyway so getting half the normal amount is bound to be noticed.

A few heavy showers here in Navan this late afternoon, lovely warm 22C at 6pm

Kermit.de.frog

Looking at mid twenties possible inland by Sunday now on the latest ECM.

Mid to high twenties by Monday. The east would do particularly well temperature wise.






A little further ahead in to Tuesday and make no mistake - this would be hot weather for Ireland. Temperatures surely knocking on 30c inland by this stage...

SleetAndSnow

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Definitely noticeable around here in Kildare, grass around trees, near kerbs, manholes etc is all yellow and anywhere in direct sunlight is a lighter shade of green than usual. We've had quite a few light showers this week which should help slightly but not had any notable rain for a month now.

Charts are fairly spectacular at the moment as well with no real rain in sight after tomorrow night, could be a long hot summer ahead if high pressure keeps reloading but lets not jinx it

We cut the grass today and the council cut the grass around the area aswell. Now i can see the brown and yellow grass haha