Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

road_high

screamer wrote: »

Pity they don't have official temp recording in kilkenny any more. Car was reading 40 in the shade today at lunchtime.

Moved to Oakpark about ten years ago.

JanuarySnowstor

I find it very surprising that they still report high pollen counts. As someone who suffers from hayfever it's never bad on a very hot day as the air and pollen rise high into the sky. Also the drought type conditions are meaning little grass growth hence less pollen.
I would actually say a very high pollen count is inaccurate at best!!

Zerbini Blewitt

With Athenry still at 28C at 8pm now :cool: plus Mace Head reaching 27C today!!! and those other 32C predictions for tomorrow it looks like 1976’s 32.5C will likely be broken tomorrow.

I’m enjoying the heat anyway but that 1976 living-memory record has stood long enough now.

nthclare

My mum still talks about the heat in 76, I was just one year's of age.

I took a swig of coke and vodka, fell and cut my face, scarred for life lol

Those were the day's she says....

Oneiric 3

Amazing headlines today from the same trash tabloid that popped up in my newsfeed.







Seems to be a curious phenomena lately for 7th rate journalists to create a story out of people's social media posts, with the catchy headline of 'EVERYBODY IS SAYING THE SAME THING ABOUT..

Met Eireann's Forecast
Last night's Late Late Show..
Last night's episode of EastEnders..
Some D-list celebrity's wedding dress.

This really plumbing new depths of garbage reporting. If 'everybody is saying the same thing about..." why do you need to make a profit driven story out of it telling us all what we already know?


The Fire is Rising.

M.T. Cranium

Recent visible satellite imagery was showing several streaks that could be smoke from wildfires. Could anyone confirm or deny?

The ones that I noticed were (a) near Mullingar heading w.s.w. and relatively large, (b) somewhere southwest of Mullingar parallel to (a), then (c) several smaller ones in west Cork and south Kerry.

screamer

Danno wrote: »

Met Eireann's latest NWP run is predicting 32c here in South Laois tomorrow.

Feck we'll be like melted snowmen...

sdanseo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Met Eireann model going for more widespread 32s tomorra:

It's even more mad for Thursday. Very widespread 32-34 and a patch or two of 34-36 in Kerry:
4 more degrees and it would literally be off the scale

screamer

Danno wrote: »

screamer wrote: »

Pity they don't have official temp recording in kilkenny any more. Car was reading 40 in the shade today at lunchtime.

There is an official station in the city. 28.8c today there.

Didn't know that met eireann don't report on it from what I know anyways.

Beechwoodspark

Where is this extremely warm air mass coming from? In my very limited knowledge of weather, it’s not the sunshine alone that brings the temps up this high right?

sdanseo

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Where is this extremely warm air mass coming from? In my very limited knowledge of weather, it’s not the sunshine alone that brings the temps up this high right?

Relatively stable high pressure means little to no interference from wind in many areas, especially inland

Very little cloud allows the sun to radiate heat directly (just look at the difference between Dublin and the west before lunch today as an example, >10 degrees between them)

The lowest layer of the atmosphere is also much thicker than usual (560dm / 5600m) vs a more typical 530dm. The thicker this layer the warmer the air mass. Someone else will give a much more comprehensive and useful explanation of this part I'm sure.

OneEightSeven

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Where is this extremely warm air mass coming from? In my very limited knowledge of weather, it’s not the sunshine alone that brings the temps up this high right?

It's the low humidity combined with the Summer solstice. It hasn't rained much over the past few months and dry air warms up quicker than wet air.

Oneiric 3

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Where is this extremely warm air mass coming from? In my very limited knowledge of weather, it’s not the sunshine alone that brings the temps up this high right?

It moved up from the northern Spain, western France region.

Villain

HARMONIE going for 30c+ in many areas, surely they will need to upgrade warning to Orange for some areas?

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1011701498391212035?s=21

Danno

The currently very dry ground is a good contributor also, it's much easier for the sun to heat a dry ground than a damp/wet one. The heat in the ground heats the first few metres above it.

glightning

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Recent visible satellite imagery was showing several streaks that could be smoke from wildfires. Could anyone confirm or deny?

The ones that I noticed were (a) near Mullingar heading w.s.w. and relatively large, (b) somewhere southwest of Mullingar parallel to (a), then (c) several smaller ones in west Cork and south Kerry.

I can see a long plume of smoke flowing westwards here from Southern County Antrim when I look SSW

Gaoth Laidir

Villain wrote: »

HARMONIE going for 30c+ in many areas, surely they will need to upgrade warning to Orange for some areas?

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1011701498391212035?s=21

Harmonie has been aiming several degrees high the last few days so I'd not take it too seriously. Met Éireann themselves have been subtracting a few degrees off it for their forecast highs.

glightning

The sunset here tonight is searingly intense. Cannot look near it. Zero haze whatsoever. Never seen such a bright and sharp sunset in this country (that I can remember anyway). Air is bone dry

Villain

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Harmonie has been aiming several degrees high the last few days so I'd not take it too seriously. Met Éireann themselves have been subtracting a few degrees off it for their forecast highs.

Yep but ECM has been a little below and their own graphs on met.ie are showing 32c, will be a little odd if their warnings don’t reflect that.

JanuarySnowstor

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Recent visible satellite imagery was showing several streaks that could be smoke from wildfires. Could anyone confirm or deny?

The ones that I noticed were (a) near Mullingar heading w.s.w. and relatively large, (b) somewhere southwest of Mullingar parallel to (a), then (c) several smaller ones in west Cork and south Kerry.

Not sure about streaks in Cork but can confirm quite a bit of cloud here this evening. Very warm and humid though

Oneiric 3

My top temperature today was 3 degrees higher than what ECM forecast for today, and 3 degrees lower than what Harnomie forecast, so a real halfway house.

Gaoth Laidir

Villain wrote: »

Yep but ECM has been a little below and their own graphs on met.ie are showing 32c, will be a little odd if their warnings don’t reflect that.

Their site has raw model output, which they (rightly) have been seeing as unrealistic. That's where they earn their euros, using their own experience to refine the output. Spot on correct so far...

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

Yep but ECM has been a little below and their own graphs on met.ie are showing 32c, will be a little odd if their warnings don’t reflect that.

The graphs are showing un- modified NWP output.

HARMONIE has been showing on average a +2C warm bias recently.

Taking that into account with it showing some 33-34s Weds/Thurs locally in the southwest, we will probably peak at 31C, perhaps very locally 32C.

Kermit.de.frog

Nice storms coming out of northern Spain this evening

https://en.sat24.com/en/fr/infraPolair

sdanseo

Weathercheck wrote: »

Taking that into account with it showing some 33-34s Weds/Thurs locally in the southwest, we will probably peak at 31C, perhaps very locally 32C.

My reading of that scale is 34-36, not 32-34?

Villain wrote: »

Yep but ECM has been a little below and their own graphs on met.ie are showing 32c, will be a little odd if their warnings don’t reflect that.

Yet another example of the poor warning system is the ambiguous definition of a red warning for heat. If the criteria persits "for more than 2 nights" - does that include the days in betweeen, i.e. >30 degrees forecast for more then 2 consecutive days? Or is the red only issued if the minimum fails to drop below 20 for the whole period?

Bottom line - AGAIN - is the sooner the fix the warning system the better.

Criteria for Red – Severe Weather Warnings
6. High Temperature As Orange criterion, but persisting for two or more consecutive nights.

Criteria for Orange – Weather Warnings
6. High Temperature Maxima in excess of 30C or minima in excess of 20C expected in a 24hr period

sryanbruen

I don't give Harmonie any credit for its temps since the 30c it showed for May 29th though I do look at it just for fun.

glightning

What a view right now! Intense sun in the west and very clear full moon low in the east. Not a cloud (of any kind) in sight

Cork Boy 53

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Recent visible satellite imagery was showing several streaks that could be smoke from wildfires. Could anyone confirm or deny?

The ones that I noticed were (a) near Mullingar heading w.s.w. and relatively large, (b) somewhere southwest of Mullingar parallel to (a), then (c) several smaller ones in west Cork and south Kerry.

I live on the boundary between mid and west Cork and no fires anywhere in my area. Maybe farther west.

sryanbruen

glightning wrote: »

What a view right now! Intense sun in the west and very clear full moon low in the east. Not a cloud (of any kind) in sight

Pics or get out.

sdanseo

Worth noting that the 12Z ECM which has been a degree or two below the mark over the last few days has gone from 28 to 29 for the next couple of days' maximum, and over a much wider area.

I'm still gunning for the record to fall. A little less cofident than I was at the weekend maybe, when the 29 in this image was a 31.