Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

sryanbruen

Love how they mention previous droughts of 1975, 1976 and 1995.

https://twitter.com/DublinLive/status/1011715977594015744

glightning

sryanbruen wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

I think in Ireland you would need 20c+ at 850mb to see greater than 33c max temp.

I thought I replied to your exact post on this stating that you were incorrect because June 1887 didn't have such uppers - at all. Not even close.

Eh? This is the first time I’ve posted about temps this summer. I have also never spoken about 1887 at all! You must be confusing me with another poster

nthclare

This weather is loved by our shark's, the water heats up brings in the mako, porbeagle, blues and tope should be plentiful...
The upper layers will warm up and they'll be feeding on palegic fish..

Don't know if there's white shark offshore lol

sryanbruen

glightning wrote: »

Eh? This is the first time I’ve posted about temps this summer. I have also never spoken about 1887 at all! You must be confusing me with another poster

No I'm not.... posted on June 23rd 2018 (last Saturday), duplicate post I may add:

glightning wrote: »

I think the chances of 32c+ maxes is rather slim to be honest. High twenties is definitely possible though.

Ireland is an island, and not a huge one at that. For most people the longest possible land draw is 100 to 200 miles. But most often it is much less than that. And the seas are always relatively cool compared with other countries.

I was in New York a few weeks back where the 850 temps were around 18c with a very long SW flow bring air up the entire United States land mass. The max official temp that day in the city was 32c.

I’ve been in London on a 34c day there. The 850 temps were around 20 to 22c with a SE flow from the near continent. Only a 20 mile stretch of water for the air to travel over in the English Channel so it remained relatively unmodified. And it usually takes those kind of 850’s for London to achieve such a max. And they have a geographical advantage over Ireland when it comes to high temps.

I believe that Ireland would need 850 temps of at least 20c to achieve a true 34c max.

p.s. models this morning are only showing 850’s reaching 12c to 13c later this week. Though that could change

Artane2002

glightning wrote: »

I think in Ireland you would need 20c+ at 850mb to see greater than 33c max temp.

I was in New York a few weeks back where the 850’s were around 18c and the flow was from the SW all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. The max in the city that day was 32c.

I’ve been in London (back around 2014) when the 850’s were 20c with a SE flow from the continent and Heathrow had a max of 34.6c.

Both those locations are geographically advantaged over Ireland when it comes to heat for obvious reasons.

I see 850’s peaking between 13c and 16c over Ireland the next 48 hours. Which in my mind will translate to a max of 30c or perhaps 31c at the best. As long as we get strong insolation and no real high cloud. Otherwise we might actually end up just shy of 30c in the end.

I don’t expect the NI record of 30.8c to fall either. Perhaps 30c will be hit west of Lough Neagh. I hope I’m wrong though! Even a 30c on the eastern side of Lough Neagh (where I live) would be great!

Sryan already proved that this isn't necessarily true. It's not all about the upper temperatures, other factors come to play too.

Gaoth Laidir

glightning wrote: »

I think in Ireland you would need 20c+ at 850mb to see greater than 33c max temp.

I was in New York a few weeks back where the 850’s were around 18c and the flow was from the SW all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. The max in the city that day was 32c.

I’ve been in London (back around 2014) when the 850’s were 20c with a SE flow from the continent and Heathrow had a max of 34.6c.

Both those locations are geographically advantaged over Ireland when it comes to heat for obvious reasons.

I see 850’s peaking between 13c and 16c over Ireland the next 48 hours. Which in my mind will translate to a max of 30c or perhaps 31c at the best. As long as we get strong insolation and no real high cloud. Otherwise we might actually end up just shy of 30c in the end.

I don’t expect the NI record of 30.8c to fall either. Perhaps 30c will be hit west of Lough Neagh. I hope I’m wrong though! Even a 30c on the eastern side of Lough Neagh (where I live) would be great!

It's not that simple. The 850 hPa level is at around 1600 m amsl, much higher than standard, so in reality it can afford to be a couple of degrees cooler than the rule of thumb.

THe 925 hPa level is forecast to be at around 880 m amsl and 20 °C through the centre of the country tomorrow afternoon. Add 8.8 degrees for a dalr (9.8 °C/km), plus a smidgen for the dry ground, and we should be able to easily add 10 degrees to that level to get the Tmax.

I would say 30.5 at Athenry, Gurteen or Shannon tomorrow.

glightning

sryanbruen wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

Eh? This is the first time I’ve posted about temps this summer. I have also never spoken about 1887 at all! You must be confusing me with another poster

No I'm not.... posted on June 23rd 2018 (last Saturday):

glightning wrote: »

I think the chances of 32c+ maxes is rather slim to be honest. High twenties is definitely possible though.

Ireland is an island, and not a huge one at that. For most people the longest possible land draw is 100 to 200 miles. But most often it is much less than that. And the seas are always relatively cool compared with other countries.

I was in New York a few weeks back where the 850 temps were around 18c with a very long SW flow bring air up the entire United States land mass. The max official temp that day in the city was 32c.

I’ve been in London on a 34c day there. The 850 temps were around 20 to 22c with a SE flow from the near continent. Only a 20 mile stretch of water for the air to travel over in the English Channel so it remained relatively unmodified. And it usually takes those kind of 850’s for London to achieve such a max. And they have a geographical advantage over Ireland when it comes to high temps.

I believe that Ireland would need 850 temps of at least 20c to achieve a true 34c max.

p.s. models this morning are only showing 850’s reaching 12c to 13c later this week. Though that could change

Ah! So that actually posted!! I tried about ten times to post that message last weekend from my phone and it kept not showing up!

So you replied to say that another summer (1887) gave 33c with what uppers?

glightning

So, does anyone know what the 1000-850 partial thicknesses are to be tomorrow and Thurs? They will tell a more accurate story for max temps I guess

sryanbruen

glightning wrote: »

Ah! So that actually posted!! I tried about ten times to post that message last weekend from my phone and it kept not showing up!

So you replied to say that another summer (1887) gave 33c with what uppers?

10-12c uppers.

Artane2002

glightning wrote: »

Ah! So that actually posted!! I tried about ten times to post that message last weekend from my phone and it kept not showing up!

So you replied to say that another summer (1887) gave 33c with what uppers?

If I remember correctly, the uppers were only 10c. Also I think that post was posted around 5 times lol

Gaoth Laidir

glightning wrote: »

So, does anyone know what the 1000-850 partial thicknesses are to be tomorrow and Thurs? They will tell a more accurate story for max temps I guess

Around 1400-1410 m.

glightning

Artane2002 wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

Ah! So that actually posted!! I tried about ten times to post that message last weekend from my phone and it kept not showing up!

So you replied to say that another summer (1887) gave 33c with what uppers?

If I remember correctly, the uppers were only 10c. Also I think that post was posted around 5 times lol

Apologies for that! I just couldn’t see it posted

glightning

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

So, does anyone know what the 1000-850 partial thicknesses are to be tomorrow and Thurs? They will tell a more accurate story for max temps I guess

Around 1400-1410 m.

Pretty high then!

Ultimate Seduction

Graces7 wrote: »

Mine is very bad, hay fever I mean, in the extreme heat. Many kinds of pollen causing hay fever too. Many kinds of grasses too.

Same as. I'm smootherd. Workmates must think I'm on drugs with all the sniffling and gammy eyes.

Any cure? I'm taking tablets and nasel spray but no good.

Xenji

Still 22.3C in Castlebar currently, humidity has rocked up to 79% as well.

SleetAndSnow

20 degrees in Cork still with high humidity. Loving it though. Sunbathing and relaxing all day in Fitzgerlds Park

Artane2002

glightning wrote: »

Apologies for that! I just couldn’t see it posted

Boards was acting up that day, at one point I was the only one viewing (including guests) the weather forum which was hard to believe. Then the site went down completely for a few hours.

Anyway, beautiful evening in Dublin after a decent enough day.

glightning

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

I think in Ireland you would need 20c+ at 850mb to see greater than 33c max temp.

I was in New York a few weeks back where the 850’s were around 18c and the flow was from the SW all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. The max in the city that day was 32c.

I’ve been in London (back around 2014) when the 850’s were 20c with a SE flow from the continent and Heathrow had a max of 34.6c.

Both those locations are geographically advantaged over Ireland when it comes to heat for obvious reasons.

I see 850’s peaking between 13c and 16c over Ireland the next 48 hours. Which in my mind will translate to a max of 30c or perhaps 31c at the best. As long as we get strong insolation and no real high cloud. Otherwise we might actually end up just shy of 30c in the end.

I don’t expect the NI record of 30.8c to fall either. Perhaps 30c will be hit west of Lough Neagh. I hope I’m wrong though! Even a 30c on the eastern side of Lough Neagh (where I live) would be great!

It's not that simple. The 850 hPa level is at around 1600 m amsl, much higher than standard, so in reality it can afford to be a couple of degrees cooler than the rule of thumb.

THe 925 hPa level is forecast to be at around 880 m amsl and 20 °C through the centre of the country tomorrow afternoon. Add 8.8 degrees for a dalr (9.8 °C/km), plus a smidgen for the dry ground, and we should be able to easily add 10 degrees to that level to get the Tmax.

I would say 30.5 at Athenry, Gurteen or Shannon tomorrow.

Thanks for the info. Well I did go for a 31c absolute max as my guess. Guess we’ll see tomorrow if it goes higher than that.

Doctor Jimbob

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Same as. I'm smootherd. Workmates must think I'm on drugs with all the sniffling and gammy eyes.

Any cure? I'm taking tablets and nasel spray but no good.

Might be worth switching up some of the medication, I started nasacort spray a few weeks ago and it's been a great help. That's also around the time the grass all started dying here so that could have something to do with it too mind.

Ultimate Seduction

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Might be worth switching up some of the medication, I started nasacort spray a few weeks ago and it's been a great help. That's also around the time the grass all started dying here so that could have something to do with it too mind.

Cheers doc. Have tried a few different tablets and sprays, will look for that in chemist. Was hoping for some kind of magical home remedy

John.Icy

_Dara_ wrote: »

Well, I suppose just because hot weather is rare doesn’t make some people like it any better. If you don’t like hot weather, you don’t like it.

I would really love a study to be done regards trivial things like this - why some Irish people are basically allergic to heat and why some can tolerate higher temperatures much easier like most Caucasians around the world. I posted about it last summer too I think;

Why would two Irish people, same age, same weight, same gender, same home address and exact same exposure to high temperatures of 22-30 degrees...why does one break down at 22 degrees and why is one much more comfortable. Obviously all humans are different but in the case above the differences are down to genetics so perhaps that's where it all lies. Or perhaps it's all in peoples heads. The brain is incredibly powerful and our own mentality can dictate our responses. Such as what a poster eluded to that when we go on a sun holiday we are prepared for it and cope well.

Gaoth Laidir

glightning wrote: »

Pretty high then!

Using the rule

Tmax=-192.65+0.156(T850-1000)+4

gives 30.53 °C. Let's say 30.5!

Ultimate Seduction

John.Icy wrote: »

I would really love a study to be done regards trivial things like this - why some Irish people are basically allergic to heat and why some can tolerate higher temperatures much easier like most Caucasians around the world. I posted about it last summer too I think;

Why would two Irish people, same age, same weight, same gender, same home address and exact same exposure to high temperatures of 22-30 degrees...why does one break down at 22 degrees and why is one much more comfortable. Obviously all humans are different but in the case above the differences are down to genetics so perhaps that's where it all lies.

I would think it's more a mindset. The same people most likely complain about the cold when it gets a bit chilly. Irish people love to moan about weather.

Graces7

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Same as. I'm smootherd. Workmates must think I'm on drugs with all the sniffling and gammy eyes.

Any cure? I'm taking tablets and nasel spray but no good.

"patient endurance" time .

John.Icy

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

I would think it's more a mindset. The same people most likely complain about the cold when it gets a bit chilly. Irish people love to moan about weather.

Got me before finished editing to include to it being mentally driven; it's probably a big factor alright.

Mobhi1

My wife is West Indian, born in England, and hates the heat and handles it much worse than me - I'm Irish and love the heat. She's also fine with the cold - I would feel the cold before she would so it can't be all down to genetics.

M.T. Cranium

Let's not forget that uppers on maps before 1943 are conjectural and not measured values. They only started to send up radiosonde balloons during the Second World War and the earliest 500 mb charts I have ever seen are from late 1943.

So when they show that peak of 12 C temps at 850 mb for the warmest day on record in Ireland in 1887, that is probably based on limited ground data and assumptions that may not be totally true. Same goes for the 500 mb contours in the background of the surface charts.

From my first impressions of the maps, there was an Azores high displaced a little east and a secondary high near Ireland. That was very likely supported by a cut off secondary high over Ireland as well. Under that, the pattern they show for 850 mb temps likely formed a similar cutoff warm dome that isn't there on the chart. I am not familiar with the process of reconstruction, whether it is entirely computer generated or if some experts look at the surface obs and find similar patterns in the instrument-measured period since 1944 and do it subjectively. But I wouldn't totally trust any of it to be more than 20% of range accurate (in other words, 12 could be anywhere from 10 to 15 in reality, perhaps even 8 to 17).

Maybe the lack of contrails in 1887 added 0.1 to the outcome too. (somebody out there knows that's an in joke)

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Let's not forget that uppers on maps before 1943 are conjectural and not measured values. They only started to send up radiosonde balloons during the Second World War and the earliest 500 mb charts I have ever seen are from late 1943.

So when they show that peak of 12 C temps at 850 mb for the warmest day on record in Ireland in 1887, that is probably based on limited ground data and assumptions that may not be totally true. Same goes for the 500 mb contours in the background of the surface charts.

From my first impressions of the maps, there was an Azores high displaced a little east and a secondary high near Ireland. That was very likely supported by a cut off secondary high over Ireland as well. Under that, the pattern they show for 850 mb temps likely formed a similar cutoff warm dome that isn't there on the chart. I am not familiar with the process of reconstruction, whether it is entirely computer generated or if some experts look at the surface obs and find similar patterns in the instrument-measured period since 1944 and do it subjectively. But I wouldn't totally trust any of it to be more than 20% of range accurate (in other words, 12 could be anywhere from 10 to 15 in reality, perhaps even 8 to 17).

Maybe the lack of contrails in 1887 added 0.1 to the outcome too. (somebody out there knows that's an in joke)

It did seem quite low for such a temperature but I would have thought that the build up of warmth over time from a constant area of high pressure over the few weeks of June 1887 combined with the extremely dry ground (after all, 1887 holds the lowest annual rainfall total on record for Ireland and June 1887 was also very dry) would justify temperatures that high of up to 33.3c. Not to mention, places like Phoenix Park reached 24c on the day as shown by the ECA&D data which is to be expected given the distribution of the pressure.

Oneiric 3

Do Irish people really love the heat that much? As I said before, as soon as the weather gets hot and sunny, the household fans come out in abundance (which don't 'cool' the air as such, but the breeze feels nice), the air conditioning is on in the stores, or we run to the beach if the first opportunity arises to dip into a sea that is roughly the same temp as an average Autumn day in Ireland just to cool off.

Irish_rat

The reason that anything above 22 is unbearable is because for about 10 months of the year it's about half that temperature outside.