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Do you believe Irish property prices will cool off soon?

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    #32
    Sleeper12
    Registered Users Posts: 17,069 ✭✭✭✭Sleeper12


    kuntboy wrote:
    By "homeless" do you mean people staying in bnbs/hotels paid for by the state (funded by the working man, who has to actually pay for his house) or people sleeping rough?


    Call it what you want but all of these have to be housed. There's about 10,000 of these. Government were caught lying about numbers built in the last 12 months so another 10,000 homes needed there. We need another 100,000 homes on top of the secision just to meetings pent up demand and another 30,000 every year to meet regular demand.

    We are building about 12,000 a year at the moment. So prices aren't going to decrease anytime soon and rents will continue to increase till we build a lot more property


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    #33
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    Sleeper12 wrote: »
    Call it what you want but all of these have to be housed. There's about 10,000 of these. Government were caught lying about numbers built in the last 12 months so another 10,000 homes needed there. We need another 100,000 homes on top of the secision just to meetings pent up demand and another 30,000 every year to meet regular demand.

    We are building about 12,000 a year at the moment. So prices aren't going to decrease anytime soon and rents will continue to increase till we build a lot more property

    There was about 15,300 dwellings built in the 12 months to March 2018, and projecting the growth rate forward for the last 3 months we would be over 16,000 currently. So not quite as dire as the 12,000 you mentioned.

    I'd say Q1 2020 is when it starts breaking 25k new dwellings and approaching annual demand requirements (of course it will need to go further past this to take care of built up demand).


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    #34
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Another issue that arising is that the new student accommodation units are not being properly counted. It appears that in some cases multiple beds are counted as one housing unit.


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    #35
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Sisk are saying supply is unlikely to reach the figure required to meet demande by 2021, as opposed to what the ERSI are saying.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/sisk-chief-executive-steve-bowcott-housing-crisis-to-last-longer-than-expected-851361.html

    Personally I believe that *in Dublin* supply won’t ever pickup with current demand levels in the short to medium term, and the only factors capable of restraining/reversing price increases are aforability limits and then a potential economic cooldown or downturn which would cap or reduce demand.


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    #36
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    I hate where we are at now. I just bought and can well afford my repayment, but I really don't want to see any explosion in house prices. The only thing between us and absolute disaster is the central bank governer. If he let's the money flow we'll be ****ed all over again. Thankfully he seems sensible but it is so fragile. If he decides to got for 4 x as standard ltv (or even higher) prices will jump over night. Scary stuff.


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