Brexit discussion thread IV

Havockk

Bambi wrote: »

As far as the DUP are concerned you're comparing apples with oranges... almost literally.

The more interesting thing about Robbos remarks was the recurring poll every 25 years. He sees the writing on the wall, and we all knew they would go with the +1 would be no good angle when population parity was reached.

Dyr

Havockk wrote: »

The more interesting thing about Robbos remarks was the recurring poll every 25 years. He sees the writing on the wall, and we all knew they would go with the +1 would be no good angle when population parity was reached.

I'm not sure even Robson believes some sort of generational Lanigans Ball poll is practical

Water John

Bambi, it might be more like comparing oranges and lemons, if you studied your chemistry.

Rhineshark

swampgas wrote: »

Interesting idea - is there any precedent for an internal FTA between two parts of the same country?

And if NI's status is linked to the EU, wouldn't that FTA have to involve the EU also?

I reckon the UK itself already sets a lot of the precedents that way. Consider what the EU SMCU took on with the UK, four countries that act as a single political and economic unit, including all its complicated internal mechanisms and relations to Ireland as well. We pretty much had to be taken on together.

I suppose the risk of any of these countries storming out and destroying the complicated web of relations was taken into account but it really did go a bit worst case scenario.

This doesn't answer your question, just set off a line of thought.

McGiver

trellheim wrote: »

Two questions:

1. What are the implications for ppl up north who identify as Irish? Will they have to register as EU citizens by the UK government?

2. Will EU citizens who are resident in UK pre 2019 have full voting rights in parliamentary elections AND EU elections?

1 - will be part of any NI agreement I'd say

2 - some of that should be sorted out in the already agreed transition piece , have a google about for it

Re 2 - absolutely not, foreign citizens are not eligible to vote in national general elections in any country, that is enabled only by naturalisation i.e. getting a citizenship of the respective country. And as the UK won't be a member state so no EU elections anymore.

devnull

Raab now apparently saying in the press in the morning that they won't be paying any money to the European Union unless the EU give them a free trade deal and any former things they agreed could be ripped up.

Gotta love how they're going to be able to organise trade deals if that's true, since it's pretty clear that you can't trust them one bit and nobody wants to deal with people who can't be trusted.

An Ciarraioch

devnull wrote: »

Raab now apparently saying in the press in the morning that they won't be paying any money to the European Union unless the EU give them a free trade deal and any former things they agreed could be ripped up.

Gotta love how they're going to be able to organise trade deals if that's true, since it's pretty clear that you can't trust them one bit and nobody wants to deal with people who can't be trusted.

Telegraph front page embargoed from the nightly roundup, so presumably this story is the reason.

judeboy101

McGiver wrote: »

Re 2 - absolutely not, foreign citizens are not eligible to vote in national general elections in any country, that is enabled only by naturalisation i.e. getting a citizenship of the respective country. And as the UK won't be a member state so no EU elections anymore.

So if nationalists or republicans born in Ni refuse to identify as british they must identify and register as EU/irish and can't vote in Westminster /Stormont elections? So Ni would go back to the good old gerrymandering days?

An Ciarraioch

judeboy101 wrote: »

So if nationalists or republicans born in Ni refuse to identify as british they must identify and register as EU/irish and can't vote in Westminster /Stormont elections? So Ni would go back to the good old gerrymandering days?

No, because the GFA still remains in force, Brexit or no Brexit.

Anthracite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No, because the GFA still remains in force, Brexit or no Brexit.

If the UK resiles the GFA, what remedy is available to the ROI?

judeboy101

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No, because the GFA still remains in force, Brexit or no Brexit.

Does that cover Westminster elections or just stormont?

An Ciarraioch

38% of UK respondents would vote for a new, pro-Brexit party, while 24% would vote for "an explicitly far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party"!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020778718510362630/photo/1

An Ciarraioch

judeboy101 wrote: »

Does that cover Westminster elections or just stormont?

Presumably both, when it concerns NI and UK constitutional issues.

Clare in Exile

As far as I'm aware it has been an agreement between the UK and Ireland that Irish citizens can vote in Westminster elections (as well as local elections) in Britain. This pre-dates the GFA, has been there since we became a republic. Basically it has always been the case that the British Government does not treat Irish citizens as "foreign". I don't believe that a hard Brexit would change this - at least I hope not...

An Ciarraioch

devnull wrote: »

Raab now apparently saying in the press in the morning that they won't be paying any money to the European Union unless the EU give them a free trade deal and any former things they agreed could be ripped up.

Gotta love how they're going to be able to organise trade deals if that's true, since it's pretty clear that you can't trust them one bit and nobody wants to deal with people who can't be trusted.

Now confirmed by the Telegraph:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1020782971647942658/photo/1

Anthracite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

38% of UK respondents would vote for a new, pro-Brexit party, while 24% would vote for "an explicitly far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party"!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020778718510362630/photo/1

Uh...hurray for FPTP?

Inquitus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Now confirmed by the Telegraph:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1020782971647942658/photo/1

Thing is they owe that money and in the long run they will be forced to pay it, or a great deal of it, via the various legal avenues the EU have to pursue.

Capt'n Midnight

Anthracite wrote: »

I think this line of argument is best summarised as: "Hey, look over there!"

+1
Lots of that , they even said our presidential election would be a show stopper .

Look at Italy. Two eurosceptic parties in power. Tough on immigration , making noises about lots of things like not being in control of currency, but there no plans to leave the EU. It's trying to change the system from withing.

Sweden has a CTA with the neigbours.
So even IF they left the EU it would only be to EEA.

And besides this would be bad for the UK. Sweden is worth keeping. So the EU would have less reason to allow the UK to cherry pick on the way out

Imreoir2

devnull wrote: »

Raab now apparently saying in the press in the morning that they won't be paying any money to the European Union unless the EU give them a free trade deal and any former things they agreed could be ripped up.

Gotta love how they're going to be able to organise trade deals if that's true, since it's pretty clear that you can't trust them one bit and nobody wants to deal with people who can't be trusted.

They are intentionally trying to wreck talks if thats true.

McGiver

judeboy101 wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

Re 2 - absolutely not, foreign citizens are not eligible to vote in national general elections in any country, that is enabled only by naturalisation i.e. getting a citizenship of the respective country. And as the UK won't be a member state so no EU elections anymore.

So if nationalists or republicans born in Ni refuse to identify as british they must identify and register as EU/irish and can't vote in Westminster /Stormont elections? So Ni would go back to the good old gerrymandering days?

I was talking about EU nationals in the UK, not Northern Irish who are British nationals. NI may retain EU citizenship but will still be British citizens so will be eligible voting in Westminster elections of course. I doubt someone can refuse/surrender their British citizenship, they would become foreign nationals (Irish) provided RoI may grant citizenship to such a person.

Leonard Hofstadter

They're also planning on bypassing Michel Barnier and going directly to the EU member states:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-chequers-plan-theresa-may-michel-barnier-eu-uk-commission-ministers-a8458126.html

I don't even know where to begin on this, the only logical explanation is that Britain wants no deal and is trying to blame Barnier or the Commission for 'intransigence' or whatever else they want to call him.

Divide and conquer isn't going to work here.

I don't know if any of you read the white paper, I read some of it, it's infuriating telling us how the plans will benefit the UK and basically just how 'awesome' the UK really is and how much the UK will benefit from Brexit. I can only conclude that it was written for the domestic UK audience, or else they're busy trying to engineer no deal.

Usually when you try and send something like this to the EU you are smart enough to try and butter them up and talk about how great the EU is, not talk about your own country at all. Even when Fianna Fáil were in power back in the days of the IMF, they had the foresight and smarts to know when they'd dug ourselves a massive hole and needed help and recognised the reality of the situation.

Imreoir2

captainspeed wrote: »

They're also planning on bypassing Michel Barnier and going directly to the EU member states:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-chequers-plan-theresa-may-michel-barnier-eu-uk-commission-ministers-a8458126.html

I don't even know where to begin on this, the only logical explanation is that Britain wants no deal and is trying to blame Barnier or the Commission for 'intransigence' or whatever else they want to call him.

Divide and conquer isn't going to work here.

I don't know if any of you read the white paper, I read some of it, it's infuriating telling us how the plans will benefit the UK and basically just how 'awesome' the UK really is and how much the UK will benefit from Brexit. I can only conclude that it was written for the domestic UK audience, or else they're busy trying to engineer no deal.

Usually when you try and send something like this to the EU you are smart enough to try and butter them up and talk about how great the EU is, not talk about your own country at all. Even when Fianna Fáil were in power back in the days of the IMF, they had the foresight and smarts to know when they'd dug ourselves and massive hole and needed help and recognised the reality of the situation.

I read some of it too, it reads more like an election manifesto than a white paper. If anything its like it was put together for the Brexiteers to point to and say look how great brexit would have been if it wasen't for that nasty EU and their need to punish us.

Infini

I'll be honest the level's of utter stupidity the Brit's are falling to make's me wonder just what the hell they're thinking to accomplish exactly. The government's are very unlikely to listen. Any threat's they make are liable to backfire spectacularly as the drive everyone into the one camp. Divine and conquer doesn't work when the other side know's your BSing.

In all honestly I'd swear they're INTENTIONALLY trying to provoke a breakdown in relations just to sell it back home.

BonnieSituation

McGiver wrote: »

Re 2 - absolutely not, foreign citizens are not eligible to vote in national general elections in any country, that is enabled only by naturalisation i.e. getting a citizenship of the respective country. And as the UK won't be a member state so no EU elections anymore.

judeboy101 wrote: »

Does that cover Westminster elections or just stormont?

McGiver wrote: »

I was talking about EU nationals in the UK, not Northern Irish who are British nationals. NI may retain EU citizenship but will still be British citizens so will be eligible voting in Westminster elections of course. I doubt someone can refuse/surrender their British citizenship, they would become foreign nationals (Irish) provided RoI may grant citizenship to such a person.

Ignoring the duality of people born in Fermanagh, Antrim, Tyrone, Derry Armagh and Down for a second...

In general...

Irish citizens are not "alien" wrt living in the UK. This means they can vote in all elections, ie. local, European, Devolved Parliaments and Westminster. (Though technically not referenda, though that has happened... but I digress.)

UK citizens are not treated as "alien" here either. They can vote in Local, European and Dáil Elections. They are not entitled to vote in referenda or for the President.
Namely because a. there is no reciprocation generally available, ie. you can't vote for the monarch (head of State) and they gernally have very few referenda owing to the sovereignty of parliament and the lack fo a consitution to amend.

All of this has NOTHING to do with EU membership and stems from ya know, that whole historical thing with us being a constituent part of the UK.

EU nationals in the UK like here, are limited in what they can vote for in that they can only vote in local and European elections.

---

Being born in the north gives you a duality and entitlement (undercertain conditions) to 2 citizenships. Brexit effects none of this as it stands and all the GFA did was GUARANTEE that right. Northern citizens have been entitled to Irish citizenship as of right since the Irish Nationality and Citizenship Act 1956.

I hope that clears that up for ye.

I feel like I'm starting to understand leavers' mentality. This whole thing is making me want the UK to crash out, whatever the damage, even though my hometown is next to the border.

The way they're behaving is abhorrent at a diplomatic level and the populace is largely going along with it.

Enzokk

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't this the strategy of David Davis? He wanted to bypass the EU as well and was politely told to speak to Mr Barnier. This is why I have no hope even if there was a general election and Labour would take over.

They will also want to leave the SM and CU for immigration control and to do their own trade deals. They will have the added incentive on state aid rules as well, but they will also want no borders because the GFA. The EU will have to lay out the options again to the new team. They will have to be told you cannot have no border if you are not in the SM and CU. That means the four freedoms and state aid rules. So back to square one again.

Dominic Raab I guess is trying to make himself known. He will be corrected quite quickly, he even may know privately already that he is making empty threats.

murphaph

If we weren't so close to the whole mess I'd be fully in favour of telling the UK to "do one" (just so they understand).

I read the German comments to Spiegel articles. Most of them with a handful of exceptions are of this opinion.

There is no popular public appetite for appeasing the UK across most of the EU.

Akrasia

The level of bad faith negotiating from this Tory government is gobsmacking.

And so much of it is self destructive and self defeating. They can't divide and conquer the EU. Any agreement at the end of the talks needs unanimous support from the EU countries.

lawred2

Akrasia wrote: »

The level of bad faith negotiating from this Tory government is gobsmacking.

And so much of it is self destructive and self defeating. They can't divide and conquer the EU. Any agreement at the end of the talks needs unanimous support from the EU countries.

You'd swear they have no idea how the EU works despite being a member for near half a century..

J Mysterio

The Home Office doesn't know how many border officials they need in the event of No Deal. But get this - they don't even know how many border officials they have right now:

"The Home Office is failing to keep track of how many customs officers it has despite warnings of chaos at Britain’s ports and airports in the event of a looming “no deal” Brexit.

"Officials admitted to The Independent that they were unable to provide a count of the number of border officials employed for customs checks and they were unsure of whether the number had increased or decreased in recent years."

"....The Independent submitted a freedom of information request asking the Border Force, which is part of the Home Office, to reveal the number of customs officers it employs in frontline roles, and to provide comparable figures for recent years."

"The department said it did “not hold data on the numbers of staff who are currently detailed to perform customs roles” and that it would be too expensive to work out the number of officers, as doing so would require a “manual extensive check” of records at various fragmented facilities scattered across the UK."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-customs-officers-eu-uk-no-deal-europe-ports-airports-home-office-a8456881.html