Brexit discussion thread IV

McGiver

Anthracite wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

38% of UK respondents would vote for a new, pro-Brexit party, while 24% would vote for "an explicitly far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party"!

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020778718510362630/photo/1

Uh...hurray for FPTP?

Yes, that paradoxically is the only benefit of the FPTP system. It prevents extremes getting into power at all or getting any significant power.

Capt'n Midnight

Some have suggested that the BBC is biased.

So how is this from the BBC Dominic Raab: We can get Brexit deal done by October

in any substantive way different from this from RTE UK may refuse to pay £39bn divorce bill without trade deal - Raab


This is a threat to rip up stuff that's already been agreed :rolleyes:

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Anthracite wrote: »

I think this line of argument is best summarised as: "Hey, look over there!"

+1
Lots of that , they even said our presidential election would be a show stopper .

Look at Italy. Two eurosceptic parties in power. Tough on immigration , making noises about lots of things like not being in control of currency, but there no plans to leave the EU. It's trying to change the system from withing.

Sweden has a CTA with the neigbours.
So even IF they left the EU it would only be to EEA.

And besides this would be bad for the UK. Sweden is worth keeping. So the EU would have less reason to allow the UK to cherry pick on the way out

Because any option except of EFTA, EEA and EU is economically disadvantageous/damaging when you export >50% of your exports to EEA and are integrated with other EEA economies and exist in a geographically proximity to EEA. No country which has been integrated into EEA for at least some time would contemplate leaving it.

So Italian populists may think about leaving the Euro, which itself is very problematic, but would never think about leaving the EU. And even if they did it's highly unlikely they would want to leave the EFTA/EEA. Only UK think it's a good idea...

devnull

The below is pretty unbelievable that they are stockpiling food now it seems in case of a state of emergency after a no deal Brexit. It's almost like they are getting ever closer to the cliff and don't care if they fall off, since as long as they get Brexit, it's worthwhile. What a bunch of fanatics.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1020957215593779200

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1020964383185399808

Very noticeable that apart from the BBC and the typical Tory rags, a lot of the media are starting to wise up to what a disaster that this is going to be, although no doubt the MSM lies and project fear will come out soon in response to people like Faisal stating what lays ahead unless they change course.

badtoro

captainspeed wrote: »

the only logical explanation is that

Brextremists want to break up the EU

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Yes, that paradoxically is the only benefit of the FPTP system. It prevents extremes getting into power at all or getting any significant power.

LOL

It doesn't. It just means extremists stay in existing parties rather than starting a new one.

Here look at how the left keeps splitting or how SF won't get into power as long as FF and FG can do a deal with anyone else.

The big problem with FPTP is the flop flopping. A small % change in voting patterns means huge changes in the marginals. And the new crowd will reverse what the last crowd did.


Here and in the EU it's about compromise, a vote for a smaller party isn't a wasted vote in a binary choice. In Scotland FPTP has the effect of disenfranchising most voters. Here in a united Ireland the DUP could have a role in government other than being limited to supporting a certain party.

Leonard Hofstadter

lawred2 wrote: »

You'd swear they have no idea how the EU works despite being a member for near half a century..

It's this lack of understanding about what the EU is about and how it works is precisely why they're leaving and blaming the EU for the logical consequences of their own actions.

We've always tried to get the most out of the EU that we can as well (in fairness, what country doesn't) - but the key difference is we understand how the EU works and we know how to work the system. We're a great nation of talkers and know how to win people around to our point of view. We also don't have a superiority complex about our country and are much more aware of our place in the world. We've a long history of coalition Government, so we've a long understanding about what compromise is. We also believe in a consensus based society and politics (we certainly don't have the ideological divide like there is between the Tories and Labour, or the globalist vs nationalist view of the world) - these are all valuable advantages in terms of trying to get what we want to get out of the EU and again this all helps us to have a much more favourable view of the EU.

judeboy101

devnull wrote: »

The below is pretty unbelievable that they are stockpiling food now it seems in case of a state of emergency after a no deal Brexit. It's almost like they are getting ever closer to the cliff and don't care if they fall off, since as long as they get Brexit, it's worthwhile. What a bunch of fanatics.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1020957215593779200

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1020964383185399808

Very noticeable that apart from the BBC and the typical Tory rags, a lot of the media are starting to wise up to what a disaster that this is going to be, although no doubt the MSM lies and project fear will come out soon in response to people like Faisal stating what lays ahead unless they change course.

We better do the same , some of my favourite treats are made in the UK.

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Because any option except of EFTA, EEA and EU is economically disadvantageous/damaging when you export >50% of your exports to EEA and are integrated with other EEA economies and exist in a geographically proximity to EEA. No country which has been integrated into EEA for at least some time would contemplate leaving it.

So Italian populists may think about leaving the Euro, which itself is very problematic, but would never think about leaving the EU. And even if they did it's highly unlikely they would want to leave the EFTA/EEA. Only UK think it's a good idea...

+1

There is also the inconvinient little fact that over a third of what the UK eats is imported from the EU.


Tariffs depend on what's exported so
https://dbei.gov.ie/en/Publications/Publication-files/Potential-Impact-of-WTO-Tariffs-on-Cross-Border-Trade.pdf
The weighted average tariff on Meat and fish to the UK is 59.2% and for Dairy it's 46.6%
For Meat and Fish to NI the weighted average tariff would be 73.4% because of a different balance of what's traded.



And the insane part is threating to not pay the Divorce Bill when 80% of your economy and most of your exports depends on services which aren't covered by a WTO backstop. If it wanted to play hardball the EU could block lots of services by pointing at the UK's data surveillance laws.

Enzokk

It does seem that the momentum has shifted towards no-deal Brexit. You have the ERG with their 80 MP's deciding the course because they hold enough votes to remove Theresa May. You now have a new Brexit minister who is repeating the mistakes of the previous minister. The difference is we are not about 2 years out from Brexit but only a mere few weeks away from getting the withdrawal agreement settled.

Take the threat not to pay the Brexit divorce money in case of no deal. I think most of us know that this is not a payment for a deal. The UK could still pay this money to the EU and not get a deal. It is money they have committed to pay and is part of the withdrawal agreement and not a trade deal. Raab is a lawyer, he is not supposed to be stupid but he sure is acting in a stupid manner.

I hope the Irish government has stepped up the preparations for a no-deal Brexit. If it has to happen it has to happen. If they have tried their best to avoid no-deal but the UK is pushing for a deal that is against our interests as part of the EU then we will have to deal with the consequences. I suspect it will be rough on us, but it will not compare to what NI and the UK will have to deal with.

bilston

There seems to be a few more Remainer Tories sticking their heads above the parapet and saying another referendum may be the only solution.

In reality a 52 48 result is so close that you could almost argue that on any given day the result could gave gone the other way.

As a remainer I hope it happens but obviously I could understand why Brexiteers would think differently.

Still I won't forget Nigel Farage effectively conceding defeat about an hour after the polls had closed and announcing that this wasn't the end and that there would have to be another referendum in the future...he quickly changed his tune. To be honest I don't know why he and Brexiteers aren't called out on this a lot more.

Enzokk

What does need to happen though is there needs to be clarification on a border. The talking point at the moment seems to be that Leo Varadkar got assurances from the EU that there will not need to be a border even with a no-deal. This needs to be clarified as it is being run with by Brexiteers and the DUP as a reason why no deal will work.

Edit: Found this article to say that Leo may have the wrong impression on the EU position. Either that or he was talking about securing the legal backstop which would mean no borders even in a no-deal scenario. But if that is not secured then border will need to be put up on the island.

Taoiseach’s confidence of no Border controls not shared in Brussels

The Taoiseach’s confidence that preparations for Border controls in Ireland are unnecessary, regardless of whether the UK secures a Brexit deal or not, is not shared in Brussels, diplomats have indicated.

bilston

Enzokk wrote: »

What does need to happen though is there needs to be clarification on a border. The talking point at the moment seems to be that Leo Varadkar got assurances from the EU that there will not need to be a border even with a no-deal. This needs to be clarified as it is being run with by Brexiteers and the DUP as a reason why no deal will work.

I think it's practically impossible to see how anyone can clarify what the border will look like.

So no deal almost inevitably leads to a hard border and possibly civil disobedience to dismantle.border apparatus.

An Irish Sea border almost inevitably leads to the collapse of the UK govt and likely disorder in Loyalist areas

The only realistic solution is a general election in the UK and a govt elected that supports Britain staying in the Customs Union and with enough MPs to support it.

In fairness to Theresa May it's possible that that was what she was trying to do by calling an election in 2017.

Or as I mentioned above a second referendum and a decisive victory for Remainers and then we can put this whole sorry affair behind us.

shakeitoff

Question about the hard border, whatever about NI in the event of Brexit is Ireland's relationship with the UK in for a huge shift? As long as it's a hard Brexit. I think we'll see a gradual shift away from our reliance on the UK but it will be a few generations before we see it.

Anthracite

bilston wrote: »

Still I won't forget Nigel Farage effectively conceding defeat about an hour after the polls had closed and announcing that this wasn't the end and that there would have to be another referendum in the future...he quickly changed his tune. To be honest I don't know why he and Brexiteers aren't called out on this a lot more.

Did I read somewhere that Farage conceded defeat even though he know that exit polling predicted a Leave victory, because he had placed a large bet that earned him a lot of money when the false dawn 'Remain' market rally happened? i.e. he conceded defeat purely to fool the markets when he knew they had won.

(can't recall the details, so DYOR)

devnull

bilston wrote: »

The only realistic solution is a general election in the UK and a govt elected that supports Britain staying in the Customs Union and with enough MPs to support it.

In fairness to Theresa May it's possible that that was what she was trying to do by calling an election in 2017.

Or as I mentioned above a second referendum and a decisive victory for Remainers and then we can put this whole sorry affair behind us.

Problem is though that she ended up not only giving the rebels and the groups in her own party more power and diluting her own, but also from that moment also had to satisfy another party in the DUP.

Without the DUP it would be simpler to deal with some of these issues, and one of the biggest mistakes of this whole situation will be TM calling an election when you look back at it.

bilston

devnull wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

The only realistic solution is a general election in the UK and a govt elected that supports Britain staying in the Customs Union and with enough MPs to support it.

In fairness to Theresa May it's possible that that was what she was trying to do by calling an election in 2017.

Or as I mentioned above a second referendum and a decisive victory for Remainers and then we can put this whole sorry affair behind us.

Problem is though that she ended up not only giving the rebels and the groups in her own party more power and diluting her own, but also from that moment also had to satisfy another party in the DUP.

Without the DUP it would be simpler to deal with some of these issues, and one of the biggest mistakes of this whole situation will be TM calling an election when you look back at it.

Oh definitely, it backfired massively.

Just like Cameron's referendum gamble backfired.

bilston

Anthracite wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Still I won't forget Nigel Farage effectively conceding defeat about an hour after the polls had closed and announcing that this wasn't the end and that there would have to be another referendum in the future...he quickly changed his tune. To be honest I don't know why he and Brexiteers aren't called out on this a lot more.

Did I read somewhere that Farage conceded defeat even though he know that exit polling predicted a Leave victory, because he had placed a large bet that earned him a lot of money when the false dawn 'Remain' market rally happened? i.e. he conceded defeat purely to fool the markets when he knew they had won.

(can't recall the details, so DYOR)

As far as I can remember there were no exit polls but the early results were showing higher than expected support for Brexit so maybe he would have had an idea. But that said I haven't heard that before about him having a bet on Remain!

McGiver

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Being born in the north gives you a duality and entitlement (undercertain conditions) to 2 citizenships. Brexit effects none of this as it stands and all the GFA did was GUARANTEE that right. Northern citizens have been entitled to Irish citizenship as of right since the Irish Nationality and Citizenship Act 1956.

I hope that clears that up for ye.

It does and i stand corrected. Cheers for that.
But for other EU nationals what I said applies.

devnull

bilston wrote: »

As far as I can remember there were no exit polls but the early results were showing higher than expected support for Brexit so maybe he would have had an idea. But that said I haven't heard that before about him having a bet on Remain!

I heard the same as Anthracite, pretty unethical really but nothing would surprise me, since as stated before, politics in the UK is largely morally bankrupt at the moment.

murphaph

bilston wrote: »

As far as I can remember there were no exit polls but the early results were showing higher than expected support for Brexit so maybe he would have had an idea. But that said I haven't heard that before about him having a bet on Remain!

There were exit polls but UK electoral law prohibits their publishing until 10pm on polling day. If you have the money you can access this data privately before it is published. Farage knew leave had won.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote: »

I feel like I'm starting to understand leavers' mentality. This whole thing is making me want the UK to crash out, whatever the damage, even though my hometown is next to the border.

The way they're behaving is abhorrent at a diplomatic level and the populace is largely going along with it.

Because they are brainwashed. And large portion of them are really angry, discontent by being sh1tted on by the Tories (and sometimes Labour) for 30 years, industries gone, no remedy from the government, no investment into the communities, public services cut. Also their political system is broken, with FPTP in the "safe seat" areas, there's no point voting, your vote has no value basically, you can't change anything and this is really big issue, it undermines trust in democracy. Desperate angry people need to release the anger in some way. Unfortunately for Europe, they are channelling it against the EU instead of against their domestic politicians and especially the Tories.

bilston

murphaph wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

As far as I can remember there were no exit polls but the early results were showing higher than expected support for Brexit so maybe he would have had an idea. But that said I haven't heard that before about him having a bet on Remain!

There were exit polls but UK electoral law prohibits their publishing until 10pm on polling day. If you have the money you can access this data privately before it is published. Farage knew leave had won.

For General elections yes and you are correct they are published bang in 10pm, but there were no exit polls for the referendum.

maynooth_rules

Is there much comment in the UK on the BBC and their handling of the Brexit fiasco? They have been shambolic and downright neglectful as a national outlet. Channel 4 news has utterly put them to shame

ArmaniJeanss

murphaph wrote: »

There were exit polls but UK electoral law prohibits their publishing until 10pm on polling day. If you have the money you can access this data privately before it is published. Farage knew leave had won.

Fairly sure there were no official Exit polls, didn't the companies say in advance that they had no methodology to do one as there hadn't been any such nationwide binary votes before. They would have had no idea of who, when or where to sample with what weightings. But they did conduct the polls on the day purely to use as the 'base' information for future referendums. So it's possible that people had this ongoing information but it would have been regarded as potentially unreliable.

Also the idea that Farage 'knew' that Leave won but said Remain had won falls down on his 'this isn't over' comment. If he knew Leave had won then the obvious thing to say would have been 'Remain has won, its over, we respect the result completely as democrats and wont carry on'.

Dyr

I was just wondering if Mogg et al are betting against the euro and that's why they're so keen on a hard brexit

The other thing is, the UK can forget amount readmission to the EU regardless of how it works out for them. There would be no appetite to have them back in the fold after this flustercuck

Infini

bilston wrote: »

There seems to be a few more Remainer Tories sticking their heads above the parapet and saying another referendum may be the only solution.

In reality a 52 48 result is so close that you could almost argue that on any given day the result could gave gone the other way.

As a remainer I hope it happens but obviously I could understand why Brexiteers would think differently.

Still I won't forget Nigel Farage effectively conceding defeat about an hour after the polls had closed and announcing that this wasn't the end and that there would have to be another referendum in the future...he quickly changed his tune. To be honest I don't know why he and Brexiteers aren't called out on this a lot more.

I think a 2nd referendum or a general election has to happen one way or another. The only difference is this time the remain side doesn't have to use project fear they can use a 2 way approach by saying Britain need's to be helping lead the EU not castigating it and pointing out the sheer failure's of the leave side by pointing out they cheated, they went in without a plan and they risk the well being of the UK by pursuing a policy that could end the UK in the long term.

Even if remain win's we all know the problem wont dissapear overnight but it would give those who have some common sense some breathing room to sort out the problem's namely take aim at the more cancerous element's of society and the failure's in their own government structure that lead them into this farcial situation to begin with.

The EU despite all the carryon doesn't want the UK to go because in the long run it's not in anyone's interest. They'll most likely allow the UK to remain in the event of a 2nd referendum though a new government is probably gonna be needed to repair relation's since the headbangers who created this mess have to go.

Bambi wrote: »

I was just wondering if Mogg et al are betting against the euro and that's why they're so keen on a hard brexit

The other thing is, the UK can forget amount readmission to the EU regardless of how it works out for them. There would be no appetite to have them back in the fold after this flustercuck

I honestly think Mogg is far more malicious than simply being a headbanging idiot, he's most likely along with farage doing this so they can profit off the inevitable crash from all this.

trellheim

The money to be paid in by the UK is all part of the transition arrangement. Since nothing is agreed UNLESS everything is agreed - then unless the UK make an agreement with the EU, therefore the UK have no transition , and therefore no money to pay in.

In this regard Raab is correct - but its just a restating of the position as it stands to play to the cheap seats. The EU know this ; Barnier is no fool at all . What matters is what is said in the small room. May seems be using Raab, and Davis before, as the face of this while Olly Robbins gets on with the detail ( see some newspapers report of Robbins taking the 50 best people from DExEu ) .

IN relation to the point above since rejoining EU will require the Euro and Schengen to be conditions of entry I suspect very low chances of that.

Capt'n Midnight

bilston wrote: »

For General elections yes and you are correct they are published bang in 10pm, but there were no exit polls for the referendum.

There were private polls , like the YouGov one, and then there were private polls, like the Survation one, for those with real money..



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

Just four minutes after the polls had closed, and with meaningful vote counts still more than two hours away, Sky had aired a concession from the world’s most prominent Brexit backer, buttressed by data from YouGov.
...
At 10:52 p.m., the pound rose above $1.50 and reached its highest mark in six months.

...
At 5:28 a.m., the pound bottomed out at $1.32, the mark cited by JPMorgan back in January.

Lots of money to be made when you shaft an entire country.

Anthracite

bilston wrote: »

For General elections yes and you are correct they are published bang in 10pm, but there were no exit polls for the referendum.

No private polling?