Brexit discussion thread IV

devnull

Haven't seen this posted before, but seems he's already trying to get into a position of dealing with the inevitable crash

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1020671636524191745

BonnieSituation

devnull wrote: »

Haven't seen this posted before, but seems he's already trying to get into a position of dealing with the inevitable crash

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1020671636524191745

It was posted last night. The absolute schnake.

trellheim

Here's my current view ( or the same one again )

1. To get to the trade negotiations UK said whatever needed to be said to move beyond the Border question
2. Now that they are finally at the talks they are trying to row back on all that ( completely as expected, its no surprise )
3. Raab et.al are only a Sideshow Bob to the Olly Robbins Krusty the Klown ( pay very close attention to Raabs "dont know the substance" comments and why thats important )

Water John

John Major backs a second Referendum.

Igotadose

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It was posted last night. The absolute schnake.

Life without consequences... must be great. '50 year timescale.' Uhuh. So you lead your lemmings off the cliff because things'll be fantastic (but so far, completely unquantifiable) in 50 years? And you invest your money overseas?

The brass neck on this entitled slime.

An Ciarraioch

devnull wrote: »

Haven't seen this posted before, but seems he's already trying to get into a position of dealing with the inevitable crash

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1020671636524191745

And now he's opened a second Dublin fund:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm

Infini

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And now he's opened a second Dublin fund:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm

Maybe they should consider siezing Moggles little piggy banks if they start refusing to pay bill's and blacklist them across Europe as well in the event of a Hard Brexit too?

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

Or Boris saying he wanted to stay in CU. Even today some Tory mentioned household savings of £2300pa. Nothing was said. No backup, no questions on surely that would mean for UK based companies etc

But yer man from the Bank of Engerland already said
Brexit vote has cost each UK household £900, says Mark Carney , but sure what would he know ?


As for Boris ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll/brits-reject-mays-brexit-plan-some-turn-to-boris-and-far-right-poll-idUSKBN1KC0ES

Only 16 percent of voters say May is handling Brexit well, compared to 34 percent who say that Johnson would do a better job, according to the poll conducted by YouGov for The Sunday Times newspaper.

cml387

Igotadose wrote: »

Life without consequences... must be great. '50 year timescale.' Uhuh. So you lead your lemmings off the cliff because things'll be fantastic (but so far, completely unquantifiable) in 50 years? And you invest your money overseas?

The brass neck on this entitled slime.

Pointless interview.

"If you're wrong will you resign?"

Resign from what? If he's wrong and it's all chaos then he goes before the electorate and they decide.

Politicians are often accused of short termism. Here's one who is looking to the future.

I think JRM is wrong, but in terms of a proper interview it's nonsense.

listermint

cml387 wrote: »

Pointless interview.

"If you're wrong will you resign?"

Resign from what? If he's wrong and it's all chaos then he goes before the electorate and they decide.

Politicians are often accused of short termism. Here's one who is looking to the future.

I think JRM is wrong, but in terms of a proper interview it's nonsense.

Future ?

This lad is looking at his near term bank balance nothing more.

Future....lol

Rhineshark

Why exactly did he decide to plump for the VAT thing?

Honestly, I'm aware that they have no regard for Ireland and are presumably not particularly attempting to screw us, but they couldn't do it better if they tried, short of actually annexing the place.

Rouse the extremists by using the DUP as kingmaker, essentially disenfranchising a large sector of the population (vast majority of nationalists and also remain Unionists), with a particular nose-thumb of having them supporting Westminster, making a joke of London's neutrality.

Be completely incompetent over the border so no-one knows what's going on.

Invite commenters to turn on NI by it being "the problem", and unfortunately, ignorance regarding what the GFA means and that the UK cannot just unilaterally dump NI is rife. But it sets up more divisions.

And the VAT thing, essentially forcing different VAT regimes on either side if the border, which is absolutely asking for smuggling. This will impact UK finances to some extent but be far more damaging to RoI revenue. Although this has the nice side effect of attempting to make the UNMANNABLE border so untenable as to force Ireland to try close it off so the UK doesn't get the blame,( the flaming cheek of them.)

Oh, and outlawing NI's current customs arrangements regarding the customs amendment. Probably irrelevant since the special systems in place regarding agriculture doesn't look like it can survive post-Brexit, but pretty sure that renders the whole idea illegal even under fantasy Brexit.

Overall, if they'd sat down to discuss how best to screw with this island, they probably couldn't have found a better route.

It's just so damned pointless.

Leroy42

But Brexit was never explained as long term. £350 per week to the NHS. Easiest trade deal in history, heading to Berlin the day after to strike a trade deal.

Basically what these politicians have done is risked the short term on the basis off an unknown and incalculated long term benefit. Of course, the short term is right off the back of 10 years of austerity, when the UK was starting to really recover. As they are all so fond if telling people, unemployment is down etc etc.

BonnieSituation

Igotadose wrote: »

Life without consequences... must be great. '50 year timescale.' Uhuh. So you lead your lemmings off the cliff because things'll be fantastic (but so far, completely unquantifiable) in 50 years? And you invest your money overseas?

The brass neck on this entitled slime.

I'll be 84 then... And I'm barely looking past my 35th birthday as it is!!!

Taytoland

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Then you misunderstand the inner workings of Northern Ireland politics and life in general to be honest. It would take a monumental shift within Unionism not seen ever before for that to happen which would need more than just economics. But what you say could easily just be thrown towards the EU, how many other countries are going to leave the EU?

You have populist nationalism running rife in Europe right now, parties and leaders getting elected who take very strong anti EU stance on many issues such as immigration, the Euro. You have the Swedish Democrats which is fiercely Euroskeptic calling for a referendum on leaving the EU and they are now number one in the polls in Sweden, which would have been unthinkable just 3 years ago. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018

You don't need to bring about a monumental shift in Unionism to achieve a United Ireland. Going by recent polls, you only need a good day for nationalism and a relatively small swing. In the normal course of affairs, it was rather improbable that this would come to pass, and if a workable agreement is reached it remains fairly improbable.

A no-deal Brexit is something of a perfect storm though. The DUP has discredited itself by being bribed to support Brexit in the first place, and by being seen to block a pragmatic solution to NI's problems. If, as is almost certain, this results in serious economic difficulty for NI, and the erection of a hard border which beyond the inconvenience it will cause, will be a symbol of British misrule, then it's hardily beyond the realms of possibility that the middle ground, and even some small u unionists, will throw their lot in with the republic.

But we are told this will tear up the GFA making it null and void, and thus it will have no grounding. That's what the Pro EU fans say, not me.

Rhineshark

Leroy42 wrote: »

But Brexit was never explained as long term. £350 per week to the NHS. Easiest trade deal in history, heading to Berlin the day after to strike a trade deal.

Basically what these politicians have done is risked the short term on the basis off an unknown and incalculated long term benefit. Of course, the short term is right off the back of 10 years of austerity, when the UK was starting to really recover. As they are all so fond if telling people, unemployment is down etc etc.

Honestly, I think they *were* looking at the short term. The short term being chaos to capitalise on, be it Farage's stunt on referendum night or be it asset-stripping the UK when it's on its knees.

It's awful that people would do this to their own country, but thems the signs. Up to and including the likes of Redwood telling people how great it's going to be while warning his clients to get their money out of the UK.

And then retire, Lawson-like, to France where they don't have to deal with the monumental sh*tshow they have wrought.

devnull

Leroy42 wrote: »

But Brexit was never explained as long term. £350 per week to the NHS. Easiest trade deal in history, heading to Berlin the day after to strike a trade deal.

Basically what these politicians have done is risked the short term on the basis off an unknown and incalculated long term benefit. Of course, the short term is right off the back of 10 years of austerity, when the UK was starting to really recover. As they are all so fond if telling people, unemployment is down etc etc.

Essentially what they've done is they have promoted messages about things that will happen following Brexit and now they know that the day of reckoning is coming, that rather than face the music that it's not all going to turn out the way they planned, instead say it will take a while to try and absolve themselves from any of the blame.

And anything that does happen in the meantime will be blamed on Brussels, Merkel, Remainers and the usual suspects who are trying to punish Britain. What you see is essentially a group of people who want to make decisions but not be held accountable for them.

Taytoland

Enzokk wrote: »

It does seem that the momentum has shifted towards no-deal Brexit. You have the ERG with their 80 MP's deciding the course because they hold enough votes to remove Theresa May. You now have a new Brexit minister who is repeating the mistakes of the previous minister. The difference is we are not about 2 years out from Brexit but only a mere few weeks away from getting the withdrawal agreement settled.

Take the threat not to pay the Brexit divorce money in case of no deal. I think most of us know that this is not a payment for a deal. The UK could still pay this money to the EU and not get a deal. It is money they have committed to pay and is part of the withdrawal agreement and not a trade deal. Raab is a lawyer, he is not supposed to be stupid but he sure is acting in a stupid manner.

I hope the Irish government has stepped up the preparations for a no-deal Brexit. If it has to happen it has to happen. If they have tried their best to avoid no-deal but the UK is pushing for a deal that is against our interests as part of the EU then we will have to deal with the consequences. I suspect it will be rough on us, but it will not compare to what NI and the UK will have to deal with.

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

Rhineshark

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

Just as a matter of interest, can you explain why?

Anthracite

Taytoland wrote: »

But we are told this will tear up the GFA making it null and void, and thus it will have no grounding. That's what the Pro EU fans say, not me.

So the UK is giving up on the principles of democracy as well? Perhaps because of 'the will of the people'?

cml387

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And now he's opened a second Dublin fund:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm

Not he.

A firm which he co-founded, and in which he has a 15% stake.

It's a detail, but like most things we tend to lose the details.

Rhineshark

Anthracite wrote: »

So the UK is giving up on the principles of democracy as well? Perhaps because of 'the will of the people'?

As it is going currently, the UK is dragging democratic principles out back to shoot them in the head. While, ironically, crying "Democracy!"

bilston

Taytoland wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

It does seem that the momentum has shifted towards no-deal Brexit. You have the ERG with their 80 MP's deciding the course because they hold enough votes to remove Theresa May. You now have a new Brexit minister who is repeating the mistakes of the previous minister. The difference is we are not about 2 years out from Brexit but only a mere few weeks away from getting the withdrawal agreement settled.

Take the threat not to pay the Brexit divorce money in case of no deal. I think most of us know that this is not a payment for a deal. The UK could still pay this money to the EU and not get a deal. It is money they have committed to pay and is part of the withdrawal agreement and not a trade deal. Raab is a lawyer, he is not supposed to be stupid but he sure is acting in a stupid manner.

I hope the Irish government has stepped up the preparations for a no-deal Brexit. If it has to happen it has to happen. If they have tried their best to avoid no-deal but the UK is pushing for a deal that is against our interests as part of the EU then we will have to deal with the consequences. I suspect it will be rough on us, but it will not compare to what NI and the UK will have to deal with.

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

I guess you are a fellow Northern Irishman.

Tell me how leaving the EU benefits Northern Ireland?

Anthracite

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

That's fascinating, but you must hate the UK more if you are praying for no deal. I feel so sorry for the many good people in the UK who still don't understand what will happen to their country.

Imreoir2

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

LOL

It doesn't. It just means extremists stay in existing parties rather than starting a new one.

Here look at how the left keeps splitting or how SF won't get into power as long as FF and FG can do a deal with anyone else.

The big problem with FPTP is the flop flopping. A small % change in voting patterns means huge changes in the marginals. And the new crowd will reverse what the last crowd did.


Here and in the EU it's about compromise, a vote for a smaller party isn't a wasted vote in a binary choice. In Scotland FPTP has the effect of disenfranchising most voters. Here in a united Ireland the DUP could have a role in government other than being limited to supporting a certain party.

That is exactly the problem, Labour has been fundementally ineffective in that it still holds to an ideology of "capturing the state", get enough of a swing and they can gain control of the state and implement their policies at will, making compromise useless to them. The problem being that the other side can capture the state back and undo all the change you bring forward.

Jim2007

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

Yap, that is the best of BREXIT - Personal hatred of the EU is put before everything else. You don't mind seeing the country, your family, your friends and everyone else destroyed, so long as your person hate is satisfied.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

An interesting NI development buried in a more general Sunday Independent piece - it appears Micheál Martin held "productive" talks with the SDLP leader, Colum Eastwood, and a significant announcement "that will realign Irish politics" will be made in September. Now, whether that means a full-blown merger between the two parties, or more that the SDLP would act as an NI branch of FF is unclear, but either way, it seems FF politicians will become involved in Northern elections, regardless of the type of Brexit.

I had heard tha Micheál Martin, internally in FF, had ruled out running candidates in NI. The explanation for this decision was that he was planning on throwing the kitchen sink at the next general election in the south and did not want any distractions, as the next election is really his last chance to become Taoiseach. The decision might have more to do with some sort of deal with the SDLP if this is true though.

devnull

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

Can you possibly expand on the reasoning of that?

What problems do you feel were caused by the European Union and what do you think will happen the day after the UK leaves the European Union with no deal?

lawred2

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

A northern unionist hates something. That's new.

Mezcita

lawred2 wrote: »

A northern unionist hates something. That's new.

Not just something. Irish people too:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107577680&postcount=7

Best ignored.

Anthracite

Mezcita wrote: »

Not just something. Irish people too:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107577680&postcount=7

Best ignored.

Ah. Yes. I feel we aren't going to get much in the way in nuanced discussion from this gent.