Brexit discussion thread IV

An Claidheamh

Rhineshark wrote: »

Just as a matter of interest, can you explain why?

Because Taytoland is a pathetic unionist who does whatever English want.
A cap doffer, a peasant.

Yet spends his time on an Irish website.

Unionists are pro EU deep down.

United Ireland on the way.

Get your ferry tickets to Blighty.

Seth Brundle

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way.

In some ways, I'd agree. The ordinary Joes don't know what benefits theyre getting from the EU and their politicians are hiding this from them. A spell out on their own will hopefully their eyes.
Also if you are a unionist then why do you think a political process that will, without doubt, harm the union is a good thing?

Taytoland wrote: »

Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

That's a fairly naive view. For what reason would you hate it with a passion? What has it done against you to generate that resentment? (I'd say that it says a lot about you and your views, in fact).

Infini

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

It's a bit ironic that you hate the thing that while not perfect and could use some improving still manage's to improve people's live's in way people don't see or realize.

The whole point of the EU is to bind Europe together and pool resource's to stand their ground against larger power block's like China, Russia and the US. It was also to end the constant war's of the previous centuries that basically broke Europe to begin with. Let's be clear here noone will say the EU is perfect, their response to the Migration and Financial Crisis showed up serious weaknesses and flaw's in the way they went about it and populist upsurge's are a result of this. That being said their result's in other area's like right's, trade and standards are nothing to hate if anything the fact that they become the top standard in their own area's can speak of the quality of the work and time that does go into these areas.

bilston

lawred2 wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

A northern unionist hates something. That's new.

Oh look a generalisation of all Northern Unionists. That's new.

McGiver

cml387 wrote: »

I agree that if an interviewee makes a statement that is factually untrue, then they should be challenged. In fact it did happen in an interview with Nigel Lawson on Today where he made a ridiculously untrue statement about climate change which was not challenged, the BBC were rightly
slapped on the head by Ofcom.

The problem with Brexit is that any outcomes must be matters of conjecture in most cases. If JRM says that Britain will benefit from leaving the EU, then what can an interviewer say. "no they won't"?

The interviewer should say "how exactly? Please specify and provide data to support your assumption."

bilston

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Rhineshark wrote: »

Just as a matter of interest, can you explain why?

Because Taytoland is a pathetic unionist who does whatever English want.
A cap doffer, a peasant.

Yet spends his time on an Irish website.

Unionists are pro EU deep down.

United Ireland on the way.

Get your ferry tickets to Blighty.

So in your head is Taytoland a "pathetic Unionist" or are all Unionists "pathetic" or "peasants"?

McGiver

Rhineshark wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

Just as a matter of interest, can you explain why?

Neoliberal globalist elite (too capitalist) or neomarxist internationalist bureaucrats (too Socialist)?

Anthracite

Mission acomplished.

Capt'n Midnight

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way. Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

If there's a no deal Brexit then NI has no protection.

Farming exports will drop. Farming subsidies will go. I didn't look at the new bill but that snake Grove has already said that matching EU funds will depend on environmental stuff. Without EU money NI will need even more funding from the rest of GB. Without DUP blackmail that's not going to happen.

A hard border will increase costs in NI. No cheap ROI fuel, no cheap route to England via ROI.

With Kilroot and Ballylumford shutting down NI will be more dependent on ROI power and an Ulster Workers Council wouldn't be able to shut down everything like it did before.


A hard Brexit would guarantee a Border Poll , and the demographics have changed. Nearly a fifth of the population doesn't fit in either tribe.

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If there's a no deal Brexit then NI has no protection.

Farming exports will drop. Farming subsidies will go. I didn't look at the new bill but that snake Grove has already said that matching EU funds will depend on environmental stuff. Without EU money NI will need even more funding from the rest of GB. Without DUP blackmail that's not going to happen.

A hard border will increase costs in NI. No cheap ROI fuel, no cheap route to England via ROI.

With Kilroot and Ballylumford shutting down NI will be more dependent on ROI power and an Ulster Workers Council wouldn't be able to shut down everything like it did before.


A hard Brexit would guarantee a Border Poll , and the demographics have changed. Nearly a fifth of the population doesn't fit in either tribe.

A hard Brexit will hit the economy of NI with a 12% dip according to the Department for Exiting the EU. That's an awful lot of jobs and investment.

badtoro

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And now he's opened a second Dublin fund:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm

It may be a more fitting comment to AH (there's a pun there but I honestly didn't see it until after typing) but add a small moustache to JRM and who would he remind ya of?

Taytoland

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Said this for ages, no deal is the only way.

In some ways, I'd agree. The ordinary Joes don't know what benefits theyre getting from the EU and their politicians are hiding this from them. A spell out on their own will hopefully their eyes.
Also if you are a unionist then why do you think a political process that will, without doubt, harm the union is a good thing?

Taytoland wrote: »

Which I am delighted about. Hate the EU with a passion, so suits me fine.

That's a fairly naive view. For what reason would you hate it with a passion? What has it done against you to generate that resentment? (I'd say that it says a lot about you and your views, in fact).

Because I believe in the nation state, self governing nations and I am against globalization and my assessment tells me it doesn't work for multiple reasons. A book you should read on this project is the great deception by Christopher Booker and Richard North.

For me the collapse of the European Union is inevitable with Brexit coming, you are going to see other nations leaving this bloc in the next 15-20+ years, it will eventually dissolve into something which is unrecognizable to just 10 years ago. 

One of the questions which gets asked is why don't you support the EU and I simply say why should I support something which I know is going to melt away in the next few decades at least compared to what you see today. It's my view that Brexit is not some anomaly but the first pillar knocked out, eventually it will come tumbling down and for that alone it is enough reason for me not to want to join it or support it. 

Most people are completely ignorant to how this project started and the idea of Churchill's idea of a United States of Europe did not become the vision which was followed but more like the one of Jean Monnet and the Schuman Declaration. The whole idea to was to create this supranational government which would overreach and overrule it's member states but they had to do it piece by piece to achieve it.

It's not a coincidence to me that right wing populism is rising in many EU countries and even a call for a referendum by the Swedish Democrats who now lead in the polls. The EU does not do reform on the 4 key tenants which they admire so much, that causes inflexibility, that plays into the hands of those who want to destroy it and destroy it is something I am fully on board with.

lawred2

Infini wrote: »

It's a bit ironic that you hate the thing that while not perfect and could use some improving still manage's to improve people's live's in way people don't see or realize.

The whole point of the EU is to bind Europe together and pool resource's to stand their ground against larger power block's like China, Russia and the US. It was also to end the constant war's of the previous centuries that basically broke Europe to begin with. Let's be clear here noone will say the EU is perfect, their response to the Migration and Financial Crisis showed up serious weaknesses and flaw's in the way they went about it and populist upsurge's are a result of this. That being said their result's in other area's like right's, trade and standards are nothing to hate if anything the fact that they become the top standard in their own area's can speak of the quality of the work and time that does go into these areas.

Yeah but rights for 'others' aren't something that unionists like Tayto appreciate...

Dyr

bilston wrote: »

Oh look a generalisation of all Northern Unionists. That's new.

It's not a generalisation of all northern unionists though, unless you drew that conclusion yourself

Rhineshark

Taytoland wrote: »

Because I believe in the nation state, self governing nations and I am against globalization and my assessment tells me it doesn't work for multiple reasons. A book you should read on this project is the great deception by Christopher Booker and Richard North.

Er, so you're a Unionist pro a United Ireland then? I mean, okay, but a little contradictory.

For me the collapse of the European Union is inevitable with Brexit coming, you are going to see other nations leaving this bloc in the next 15-20+ years, it will eventually dissolve into something which is unrecognizable to just 10 years ago. 

One of the questions which gets asked is why don't you support the EU and I simply say why should I support something which I know is going to melt away in the next few decades at least compared to what you see today. It's my view that Brexit is not some anomaly but the first pillar knocked out, eventually it will come tumbling down and for that alone it is enough reason for me not to want to join it or support it.

Yes, the UK thought that too and reconsidered in an impressive mea  culpa in the White Paper on joining the community as the rest of the countries were doing well but the UK economy was up the creek.

Most people are completely ignorant to how this project started and the idea of Churchill's idea of a United States of Europe did not become the vision which was followed but more like the one of Jean Monnet and the Schuman Declaration. The whole idea to was to create this supranational government which would overreach and overrule it's member states but they had to do it piece by piece to achieve it.

Well, that's such complete rubbish that I'm not sure where to start. Do you have a source for that?

It's not a coincidence to me that right wing populism is rising in many EU countries and even a call for a referendum by the Swedish Democrats who now lead in the polls.

You are correct, it is not a co-incidence. A strong Europe is bad news for Russia (sanctions and regaining territory) and the current US (it is far easier to bully 27 small countries individually than it is to take them on as a bloc).

The EU does not do reform on the 4 key tenants which they admire so much, that causes inflexibility, that plays into the hands of those who want to destroy it and destroy it is something I am fully on board with.

That is what allows for the Single Market to exist, which we all benefit from trading in.

But I do believe that you hate it and want to see it destroyed - not just to leave it, but to ensure that nobody benefits from it. I do not understand this sort of thinking, but I do recognise blind, destructive hate. I recognised it in that unpleasant post of yours regarding Ireland that was quoted earlier too.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A hard Brexit will hit the economy of NI with a 12% dip according to the Department for Exiting the EU. That's an awful lot of jobs and investment.

A hard Brexit would hit us by 4% according to the IMF. To put that in perspective our 2017 growth has been revised down from 7.8% to 7.2%.

In NI the first quarter of 2018 was a 0.3% contraction.

Like I said earlier I'd also expect the UK not to match current EU funding. They've already cut back on Cornwall, and most of the DUP's billion is yet to arrive.

Imreoir2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A hard Brexit will hit the economy of NI with a 12% dip according to the Department for Exiting the EU. That's an awful lot of jobs and investment.

:eek: Do you have a source for that?

NI is already struggeling as it is, one eight of the economy going up in smoke is about as catastrophic an outcome as anyone could think of.

Someone please tell me how pragmatic unionsts choose to stay shackled to the UK in that scenario?

judeboy101

Imreoir2 wrote: »

:eek: Do you have a source for that?

NI is already struggeling as it is, over one eight of the economy going up in smoke is about as catastrophic an outcome as anyone could think of.

Someone please tell me how pragmatic unionsts choose to stay shackled to the UK in that scenario?

Because they are fanatics. Just like hard core evangelical Christians or beard pulling mad mullahs, they have a singular vision of their place in the world. They'd let their own houses burn just to spite their neighbours because in their eyes, they are "more British than the British themselves".

Anthracite

judeboy101 wrote: »

Because they are fanatics. Just like hard core evangelical Christians or beard pulling mad mullahs, they have a singular vision of their place in the world. They'd let their own houses burn just to spite their neighbours because in their eyes, they are "more British than the British themselves".

The greatest irony is that in Britain, they will always be regarded as 'Paddies'.

Imreoir2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Because they are fanatics. Just like hard core evangelical Christians or beard pulling mad mullahs, they have a singular vision of their place in the world. They'd let their own houses burn just to spite their neighbours because in their eyes, they are "more British than the British themselves".

You may notice I did say pragmatic unionists, of whom there are more than a few. Sure there are hardliners who would rather choke on a Union Jack than live in a United Ireland, but there are small u unionists who support the union because they believe it is in their interest to stay in the UK.

By all accounts, there has been a growing conversation on Irish Unity amongst moderate unionists, wondering what they really have to lose in a united Ireland if Brexit goes tits up, and put's their livelihoods at risk.

You don't have to convince the diehards, you only need to swing a few moderats for a UI to be possible.

Infini

Taytoland wrote: »

Because I believe in the nation state, self governing nations and I am against globalization and my assessment tells me it doesn't work for multiple reasons. A book you should read on this project is the great deception by Christopher Booker and Richard North.

I generally don't read stuff like this as it usually stray's strait into conspiracy theory country. I also think that Globalization is an inevitable result of the way our world is changing and how it's become so interconected. The best way we can control this and is steer it towards benefiting people is by making sure that there's strong organisation's and rule's in place. The EU is the best example of this, the US can't be relied on as it's what I can only describe as a Hyper Capitalist nation which has serious flaw's in it's structure that's helped the like's of President Troll get in charge.

Taytoland wrote: »

For me the collapse of the European Union is inevitable with Brexit coming, you are going to see other nations leaving this bloc in the next 15-20+ years, it will eventually dissolve into something which is unrecognizable to just 10 years ago. 

VERY unlikely. Every nation know's as much as they might hate it that they're far more vunerable and less able to cope on their own against larger threats. Britain is going the way it is because sadly they have a broken political system and too many people are either too complacent, don't know or want to understand the depth of the damage that leaving the EU will inflict on them or are too arrogant, prideful and hard headed to change their mind. If any country had reason to leave many year's ago it would have been Greece. They didn't because ultimately when the hard choice was to be made they knew they would be worse off on their own as much as it angered and pissed them off. Italy is unlikely to leave the EU even with those in charge right now because THEY even know the cost's and disadvantage's that come with with it.

Taytoland wrote: »

One of the questions which gets asked is why don't you support the EU and I simply say why should I support something which I know is going to melt away in the next few decades at least compared to what you see today. It's my view that Brexit is not some anomaly but the first pillar knocked out, eventually it will come tumbling down and for that alone it is enough reason for me not to want to join it or support it. 

It's far too early to think that an organization that came about because of the chaos of the 20th century will just "melt away". It wont. Not with an unstable America and a resurgent Russia. Those who are leading in the EU know full well that what's happening now is a result of bad policy. They know that they need to adapt and make the system more accountable and need to connect with people in order to remain legitimate. If anything Britain is the one at the greatest threat of breaking apart because if they crash out with no plan and basically go on a fire sale of their country, the people in NI are quickly gonna wake up to the fact that they're losing out staying with this sinking ship while the rest of the Island is holding out. Scotland's indepenence movement will also surge if they're hit hard and could break away the next time as well. As for the EU with the conditions outside the most likely plan that will happen is to bunker down and work more closely together. Even the more uppity goverment's like Poland and Hungary arent as stupid as the UK is being atm they know it's not worth the risk considering history. If anything the UK will become a blatent example of doing it wrong.

Taytoland wrote: »

Most people are completely ignorant to how this project started and the idea of Churchill's idea of a United States of Europe did not become the vision which was followed but more like the one of Jean Monnet and the Schuman Declaration. The whole idea to was to create this supranational government which would overreach and overrule it's member states but they had to do it piece by piece to achieve it.

The whole point was to create a 3rd Superpower to be able to hold against the influence of the US and Russia. This was at a time when Europe had effectively been split in two between Soviet Russia and the US and this happened because the old power's of Europe had either been physically ruined by the 2nd World War and financially Bankrupted by the cost's involved. Of course they were gonna look for a supernational authority to supersede the broken politics that had left Europe a smoking wreck at the time.

To be honest if the EU need's anything right now it would be strengthening the EU parliament to be more effective to the people it's representing and have more power's rather than the representational commission. At least then people will take more interest as they'd know they're putting someone there who will work for them and start paying attention more to the people they elect to represent them.

Taytoland wrote: »

It's not a coincidence to me that right wing populism is rising in many EU countries and even a call for a referendum by the Swedish Democrats who now lead in the polls. The EU does not do reform on the 4 key tenants which they admire so much, that causes inflexibility, that plays into the hands of those who want to destroy it and destroy it is something I am fully on board with.

The surge in populism is down to failure's by the EU to realize that it's grown somewhat distant from the people it's meant to represent. People aren't against regulated, organized immigration or generally against other's coming in in manageable number's, they're against mass influxes of people, illegals immigrants and concentrated foreign population dumping that makes certain area's unrecognizable or no go areas. The austerity as well that has been prevalent over the last 10 year's hasn't helped either. That being said only small amount's of people would be willing to leave, the swedish democrat's you quote for example might end up the 2nd largest party but they'd still be a significant minority overall not to mention there's no appetite for people there to leave either.

Professor Moriarty

Imreoir2 wrote: »

:eek: Do you have a source for that?

NI is already struggeling as it is, one eight of the economy going up in smoke is about as catastrophic an outcome as anyone could think of.

Someone please tell me how pragmatic unionsts choose to stay shackled to the UK in that scenario?

It's from The Belfast Telegraph:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/brexit/predicted-brexit-hit-to-northern-ireland-economy-reality-check-for-may-and-dup-36580101.html

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You may notice I did say pragmatic unionists, of whom there are more than a few. Sure there are hardliners who would rather choke on a Union Jack than live in a United Ireland, but there are small u unionists who support the union because they believe it is in their interest to stay in the UK.

By all accounts, there has been a growing conversation on Irish Unity amongst moderate unionists, wondering what they really have to lose in a united Ireland if Brexit goes tits up, and put's their livelihoods at risk.

You don't have to convince the diehards, you only need to swing a few moderats for a UI to be possible.

I'd agree. The "unionist" that people percieve Tayto to be are generally a significant minority like the loyalist headbangers. Most people generally care for their own wellbeing and their families first and foremost. If NI crashes hard thanks to Brexit and they see the republic holding it's ground while they're suffering a severe depression, they're gonna start seriously thinking about why are we remaining with the UK when everything over there is better politically, economically and socially. Remember unionism started in the first place because they feared they'd be sidelined and lose economic and social power and be discriminated against a century ago. That would no longer be an issue today the republic is vastly different today from say 40 years ago and once they start thinking that they'll not only be financially better off but socially as well as being in the EU mean's they got solid right's in part thanks to the EU that's all it would take for people to agree. The like's of the DUP are a joke because the policy they pursue in regard's to Brexit will backfire so badly they'll be the one's irrelevant within 20 years.

Wanderer78

Infini wrote:

I generally don't read stuff like this as it usually stray's strait into conspiracy theory country. I also think that Globalization is an inevitable result of the way our world is changing and how it's become so interconected. The best way we can control this and is steer it towards benefiting people is by making sure that there's strong organisation's and rule's in place. The EU is the best example of this, the US can't be relied on as it's what I can only describe as a Hyper Capitalist nation which has serious flaw's in it's structure that's helped the like's of President Troll get in charge.

But is a union with a serious democratic deficit the way to go?

lawred2

Wanderer78 wrote: »

But is a union with a serious democratic deficit the way to go?

Where's the democratic deficit?

Topgear on Dave

Wanderer78 wrote: »

But is a union with a serious democratic deficit the way to go?

The world is made of major powers like US, EU and China.

Countries either sit at the table or they are on the menu.

snowstorm445

Taytoland wrote: »

Because I believe in the nation state, self governing nations and I am against globalization and my assessment tells me it doesn't work for multiple reasons. A book you should read on this project is the great deception by Christopher Booker and Richard North.

For me the collapse of the European Union is inevitable with Brexit coming, you are going to see other nations leaving this bloc in the next 15-20+ years, it will eventually dissolve into something which is unrecognizable to just 10 years ago. 

One of the questions which gets asked is why don't you support the EU and I simply say why should I support something which I know is going to melt away in the next few decades at least compared to what you see today. It's my view that Brexit is not some anomaly but the first pillar knocked out, eventually it will come tumbling down and for that alone it is enough reason for me not to want to join it or support it. 

Most people are completely ignorant to how this project started and the idea of Churchill's idea of a United States of Europe did not become the vision which was followed but more like the one of Jean Monnet and the Schuman Declaration. The whole idea to was to create this supranational government which would overreach and overrule it's member states but they had to do it piece by piece to achieve it.

It's not a coincidence to me that right wing populism is rising in many EU countries and even a call for a referendum by the Swedish Democrats who now lead in the polls. The EU does not do reform on the 4 key tenants which they admire so much, that causes inflexibility, that plays into the hands of those who want to destroy it and destroy it is something I am fully on board with.

Whatever about the rest of your post, this is pure nonsense.

To say that the founders of the European Union sought an authoritarian superstate is absolute tabloid-history rubbish. They had recent appreciable experience of living under a brutal superstate and the devastation that ensued. Many were persecuted under the Nazis.

They knew that voluntarily surrendering sovereignty was a dangerous and unfamiliar venture but given the circumstances it was in the economic and political interests of the initial member states, especially the French and the Germans, to pursue integration, and to prevent war from ever breaking out between them.

And above all it was consensus which drove the European project. There were occasions when the whole structure nearly collapsed due to perceived overreach of power (eg the Empty Chair crisis of the mid 60s). The Brexiteer school of history (if it can be called that) has always attempted to portray the rise of the EU as some sort of unstoppable match towards dictatorship but the truth is that the process has been almost entirely consensus driven. Never mind the contradiction between the “Fourth Reich” dictatorship nonsense and the fact that the British are withdrawing from the EU entirely of their own volition without any interference from the EU itself.

Also may I ask how you can be a unionist who believes that self-governing nation states are the only viable model? How do you reconcile that with being part of a union of four only partially self-governing nation states? A bit of a contraction I would have thought?

Wanderer78

lawred2 wrote:

Where's the democratic deficit?

I ll leave this sit here for a while!

Topgear on Dave

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I ll leave this sit here for a while!

Well.... give us an answer?

lawred2

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I ll leave this sit here for a while!

It's you who introduced it... If you don't want to expand on your own comments then fair enough.