Brexit discussion thread IV

First Up

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Infini wrote:

I generally don't read stuff like this as it usually stray's strait into conspiracy theory country. I also think that Globalization is an inevitable result of the way our world is changing and how it's become so interconected. The best way we can control this and is steer it towards benefiting people is by making sure that there's strong organisation's and rule's in place. The EU is the best example of this, the US can't be relied on as it's what I can only describe as a Hyper Capitalist nation which has serious flaw's in it's structure that's helped the like's of President Troll get in charge.

But is a union with a serious democratic deficit the way to go?

A union of 28 (soon to be 27) sovereign democracies that has achieved 60+ years of uninterrupted peace and growing prosperity in a continent previously riven by wars looks the best of what's been tried so far to me.

Have you a better idea?

Wanderer78

Topgear on Dave wrote:

Well.... give us an answer?

Come on now lads, there's plenty of evidence to support the serious lack of democratic control within EU institutions

Wanderer78

First Up wrote:

Have you a better idea?

Make it a little democratic maybe

ancapailldorcha

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I ll leave this sit here for a while!

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Well.... give us an answer?

Enough of this please.

Imreoir2

Wanderer78 wrote: »

But is a union with a serious democratic deficit the way to go?

There is a reason for the supposed democratic deficit in the EU, it's called the European Council. You could go down the line of fully democratising the EU, making the commission responsible to Parliament and making Parliament the pre-eminent body in the EU institutions in reality as well as in aspiration. The dificulty with doing that, and the reason that it has not yet been done, is that lots of people and lots of member states don't want it to be that way. Many many people want the EU to stay as a collection of member states. Hence the European Council is the powerhouse in the EU moreso than Parliament.

Now, each government represented in the European Council is elected by their own people, so the whole democratic deficit argument can only be taken so far, but if the EU is somewhat undemocratic, then it is because thats what people want.

EDIT: I should add that the current set up, for all its faults, is probably better for small nations like Ireland. As it stands, Ireland is one of 27, with an equal seat at the table, and a veto on many aspects of policy where the EU can only act with the concent of all members. In a fully democratised EU, we are only 4.5 million people in a 500 million population, and our MEP's would be split up among the various different groupings in parliament. I am in favour of a more powerful parliament in the EU, but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Our seat on the European Council is hugely important to us.

First Up

Wanderer78 wrote: »

First Up wrote:

Have you a better idea?

Make it a little democratic maybe

Such as?

Akrasia

Wanderer78 wrote: »

But is a union with a serious democratic deficit the way to go?

how would you restructure the EU so that it becomes more democratic while still administering a political and economic bloc of hundreds of millions of people with competing interests over a vast geographic area?

Thargor

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1020949975335915520

Id agree with that.

bilston

Imreoir2 wrote: »

:eek: Do you have a source for that?

NI is already struggeling as it is, one eight of the economy going up in smoke is about as catastrophic an outcome as anyone could think of.

Someone please tell me how pragmatic unionsts choose to stay shackled to the UK in that scenario?

Speaking as a "Pragmatic Unionist" it has certainly got me thinking. But I still have difficulties with a United Ireland which are probably best left for the countless United Ireland threads on Boards.

Anyway, I've just been watching the Paper Review on Sky News, both reviewers came across as remainers. Some worrying points raised about food imports in the event of as no deal. It will be on again at 11.30. Interesting watch.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

:eek: Do you have a source for that?

NI is already struggeling as it is, one eight of the economy going up in smoke is about as catastrophic an outcome as anyone could think of.

Someone please tell me how pragmatic unionsts choose to stay shackled to the UK in that scenario?

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/brexit/predicted-brexit-hit-to-northern-ireland-economy-reality-check-for-may-and-dup-36580101.html

The figures showed that Northern Ireland would take an 8% hit to economic growth under the Government's preferred outcome of a free trade deal with the EU, while leaving with no deal will result in a 12% dip

BonnieSituation

The north is practically in recession based on the figures this week. One more quarter of contraction to make it official?

EdgeCase

Cripes, those figures are not good. I can only conclude that the DUP really doesn't care about the economic future of the region.

They have it within their grasp to collapse the UK Government, trigger a general election and deliver some kind of sane solution that's more like the status quo. They're choosing not to.

BonnieSituation

EdgeCase wrote: »

Cripes, those figures are not good. I can only conclude that the DUP really doesn't care about the economic future of the region.

They have it within their grasp to collapse the UK Government, trigger a general election and deliver some kind of sane solution that's more like the status quo. They're choosing not to.

They don't even need to do that. All they have to do is just sign up to the Irish Sea border and that's the end of the trouble. (ignoring the ERG amendments)

EdgeCase

Well, vote dogmatists, get dogma. It's pretty much inevitable.

Anthracite

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I should add that the current set up, for all its faults, is probably better for small nations like Ireland. As it stands, Ireland is one of 27, with an equal seat at the table, and a veto on many aspects of policy where the EU can only act with the concent of all members. In a fully democratised EU, we are only 4.5 million people in a 500 million population, and our MEP's would be split up among the various different groupings in parliament. I am in favour of a more powerful parliament in the EU, but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Our seat on the European Council is hugely important to us.

This is the epitome of shared sovereignty. We get one seat out of 28 on the coucil, as does Estonia, and Germany. Our vote has weight, and small members can block things that bigger members try to drive through.

Of course, if you point this out to a anti-euro nut, they will claim it is anti-democratic, completely missing the point of shared sovereignty.

Imreoir2

Anthracite wrote: »

This is the epitome of shared sovereignty. We get one seat out of 28 on the coucil, as does Estonia, and Germany. Our vote has weight, and small members can block things that bigger members try to drive through.

Of course, if you point this out to a anti-euro nut, they will claim it is anti-democratic, completely missing the point of shared sovereignty.

The oddest part of it is the people who complain about the EU being undemocratic are the same people who think the EU should only be a loose collection of member states.

McGiver

Taytoland wrote: »

A book you should read on this project is the great deception by Christopher Booker and Richard North.

A book by a deluded English Europhobe also an AGW denialist? Tinfoil hat stuff. Isn't far from Ian Paisley's notion of the EU as a Vatican conspiracy, AGW denial and creationism.

In collaboration with Richard North, Booker has written a variety of publications advancing a eurosceptic, though academically disputed, popular historiography of the European Union.

That's a polite way of saying he is writing a nonsense.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/may/13/christopher-booker-misleading
http://mediotutissimus.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-great-deception-christopher-booker.html?m=1
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Booker

trellheim

There is a reason for the supposed democratic deficit in the EU, it's called the European Council. You could go down the line of fully democratising the EU, making the commission responsible to Parliament and making Parliament the pre-eminent body in the EU institutions in reality as well as in aspiration. The dificulty with doing that, and the reason that it has not yet been done, is that lots of people and lots of member states don't want it to be that way. Many many people want the EU to stay as a collection of member states. Hence the European Council is the powerhouse in the EU moreso than Parliament.

Now, each government represented in the European Council is elected by their own people, so the whole democratic deficit argument can only be taken so far, but if the EU is somewhat undemocratic, then it is because thats what people want.

EDIT: I should add that the current set up, for all its faults, is probably better for small nations like Ireland. As it stands, Ireland is one of 27, with an equal seat at the table, and a veto on many aspects of policy where the EU can only act with the concent of all members. In a fully democratised EU, we are only 4.5 million people in a 500 million population, and our MEP's would be split up among the various different groupings in parliament. I am in favour of a more powerful parliament in the EU, but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Our seat on the European Council is hugely important to us.

There's definitely a strong debate about "Ever Closer Union" worth having but every time it degrades into pointless whiffle. Very few people identify as European but rather as Irish or French .. . and most people will want it that way.

Me I'd rather be in the tent weeing out, rather than the opposite. Its in the UK's interest to strike a deal but I've never ever seen such stupid negotiations from one side ( although Trump/NK is putting up stiff competition for that prize )

joeysoap

Rhineshark wrote: »

Why exactly did he decide to plump for the VAT thing?

Honestly, I'm aware that they have no regard for Ireland and are presumably not particularly attempting to screw us, but they couldn't do it better if they tried, short of actually annexing the place.

Rouse the extremists by using the DUP as kingmaker, essentially disenfranchising a large sector of the population (vast majority of nationalists and also remain Unionists), with a particular nose-thumb of having them supporting Westminster, making a joke of London's neutrality.

Be completely incompetent over the border so no-one knows what's going on.

Invite commenters to turn on NI by it being "the problem", and unfortunately, ignorance regarding what the GFA means and that the UK cannot just unilaterally dump NI is rife. But it sets up more divisions.

And the VAT thing, essentially forcing different VAT regimes on either side if the border, which is absolutely asking for smuggling. This will impact UK finances to some extent but be far more damaging to RoI revenue. Although this has the nice side effect of attempting to make the UNMANNABLE border so untenable as to force Ireland to try close it off so the UK doesn't get the blame,( the flaming cheek of them.)

Oh, and outlawing NI's current customs arrangements regarding the customs amendment. Probably irrelevant since the special systems in place regarding agriculture doesn't look like it can survive post-Brexit, but pretty sure that renders the whole idea illegal even under fantasy Brexit.

Overall, if they'd sat down to discuss how best to screw with this island, they probably couldn't have found a better route.

It's just so damned pointless.

My experience is that things often go ways not predicted.

On smuggling ( and there will be plenty of that) it well might be in the ‘other direction’ for many items.

In the event of sterling falling further some goods manufactured in the EU might be cheaper here, or close to it. Especially if there’s import duties into the UK. Knock off 23% vat and with no hard border on the NI side it’s a free home run. Of course it will be a two way street with both exchequers losing out.

Not forgetting that ‘various’ shades of extremists were the real profiteers last time round and this is unlikely to change next time round. Something the UK authorities won’t want, but might get.

Capt'n Midnight

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They don't even need to do that. All they have to do is just sign up to the Irish Sea border and that's the end of the trouble. (ignoring the ERG amendments)

Thing is if the UK gets a good deal then the Irish Sea border becomes relatively soft, and queues quick using Max Fac or trusted trader and all that.

If it's hard Brexit then a sea border might be the thing that cushions the local economy and removes the threat of reunification.



Then there's this https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/22/would-a-united-ireland-be-affordable/

The economy of Northern Ireland, in terms of GDP per capita, is further behind the Republic today than was the case between East Germany and West Germany in 1989.

The other side of the coin

Bridging the two Irish economies in a newly unified state might take decades, as was and continues to be the case in Germany. But there are few Germans today that argue that unification wasn’t worth the expense.

three different possible values for the deficit; €11.3bn if you include all of the allocated expenditures, €5.7bn if you include none of the allocated values, and €7.6bn if you include public sector debt and “other” allocations, but exclude EU expenditures, Defence & international spending, and consumption of fixed capital.

Rain Ascending

McGiver wrote: »

A book by a deluded English Europhobe also an AGW denialist? Tinfoil hat stuff. Isn't far from Ian Paisley's notion of the EU as a Vatican conspiracy, AGW denial and creationism.

That's a polite way of saying he is writing a nonsense.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/may/13/christopher-booker-misleading
http://mediotutissimus.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-great-deception-christopher-booker.html?m=1
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Booker

Now here's an interesting one: both North and Brooker have been arguing strongly for the UK to stay in the EEA (i.e. the single market), at least as the initial first step in Brexit. Many of us reference North's blog EUReferendum.com as a good reference for the regulatory implications of leaving the EU.

I don't think anybody here has recommended his blog as a good source of political analysis or, even less, of media critiques. However, he is excellent at identifying the relevant regulations and pretty good at figuring out the implications that various Brexit proposals have for those regulations. He doesn't get it right 100% of the time and sometimes overstates the impact. But still, a useful reference.

Bottom line: Useful insights can come from the most unlikely of sources, even in the most fevered of debates like Brexit. Things are going to get rougher over the next few months and emotions are going to run high. While there will be a role for passionate language on occasion, we are already running a big deficit in cold calculating analysis.

Capt'n Midnight

joeysoap wrote: »

On smuggling ( and there will be plenty of that) it well might be in the ‘other direction’ for many items.

If we drop 10c or 20c off fuel then we'd make it on the volume heading North. But the UK would feel the loss.

Not forgetting that ‘various’ shades of extremists were the real profiteers last time round and this is unlikely to change next time round. Something the UK authorities won’t want, but might get.

It was on an industrial level. At one point 40% of the fuel in NI was smuggled or laundered.

Also cigarettes. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/garda%C3%AD-raid-illegal-cigarette-making-factory-near-the-border-1.3428404

Some 66 tonnes of raw tobacco, said to be enough to make 66 million cigarettes, was found during the raid, as were around 25 million cigarettes, which were all commercially packaged in counterfeit Mayfair branded 20 packs.

Capt'n Midnight

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Now here's an interesting one: both North and Brooker have been arguing strongly for the UK to stay in the EEA (i.e. the single market), at least as the initial first step in Brexit.

Lots of problems.

While in the EEA they'll have to accept EU rules and free movement but won't be entitled to passporting of services. And they'll have to keep paying the full membership price or Norway will be looking for a discount too.

Will the other members of the EEA let the UK stay on a temp basis ?
Running the risk that UK is much bigger and might not want to leave, that would drive the Swiss insane.

J Mysterio

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The economy of Northern Ireland, in terms of GDP per capita, is further behind the Republic today than was the case between East Germany and West Germany in 1989.

I'm not sure you can compare like for like, but interesting trivia nonetheless.

'Ms May... Tear down that wall.'

Rain Ascending

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Lots of problems.

While in the EEA they'll have to accept EU rules and free movement but won't be entitled to passporting of services. And they'll have to keep paying the full membership price or Norway will be looking for a discount too.

Oh I agree. And North downplays the former (freedom of movement) and ignores the latter (the money) as serious political impediments to his vision -- hence my comments about the quality of his political analysis. However EEA membership goes a long way to solving the NI border issue and would make life a lot easier for Ireland generally.

Trasna1

There's an 18 page discussion of relatively sane people on mumsnet discussing hoarding canned food to prepare for Brexit. I think we should just reflect on how bat**** insane that is - the government of a developed G7 country is preparing to/ telling the population to hoard food in advance of a voluntary decision they're making. And no one is stopping this?

If the fact that that can take place as a serious conversation is not an indictment of the current state of British politics, I don't know what it.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3313558-What-about-those-who-can-t-afford-to-stockpile?pg=2&order=

devnull

Some good analysis of the similarities between May and Cameron here and how they both backed themselves into a corner to appease extremists in their party.

https://news.sky.com/story/the-tragedy-of-theresa-may-repeating-david-camerons-mistake-11445842?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

Achernar

Amidst all the chaos and confusion currently evident in the British government regarding what will happen in the remaining months to Brexit Day, a disturbing current of thinking has emerged:  that NI, the border and, by implication, the ROI, will be used as a bargaining chip in England's fight with Europe.  In other words, it wasn't insulting enough that the implications of Brexit for Irish people (north or south) weren't even acknowledged by the English at the time of the referendum and subsequently; now that they have been identified clearly as one of the the major sticking points in negotiations with the EU, there is a more aggressive, dishonourable and condescending meme emerging that NI and its political complexity will be deliberately used to make the process more difficult for the ROI (and hence for the EU).  
The other emerging notion I've been thinking about increasingly in recent days is:  even with a crash-out Brexit, hard border in NI and social disruption in the UK consequent on Brexit-induced chaos, how is the now-emboldened hard-right proto-fascist English nationalist sentiment going to be dealt with in a lasting way, in a way that won't lead to them creating more destruction and toxicity.  The government is unable to govern even now, how much more dysfunctional can it get when the populace is an order of magnitude more afraid, angry, hungry and poor?  What will be the cost (politically, economically and socially) of a failing but very angry state on the EU's doorstep?

LeinsterDub

http://uk.businessinsider.com/amazon-uk-boss-doug-gurr-warns-brexit-spark-civil-unrest-2018-7

Amazon has reportedly warned that if Britain crashes out of the European Union without a trade deal, it could spark "civil unrest" within two weeks.
The prediction was made by UK boss Douglas Gurr at a private meeting with the government last Friday, according to The Times.

This is making quite the splash today. Reactions are as expected . Project fear for one side an other dead Canary for the other

badtoro

Trasna1 wrote: »

There's an 18 page discussion of relatively sane people on mumsnet discussing hoarding canned food to prepare for Brexit. I think we should just reflect on how bat**** insane that is - the government of a developed G7 country is preparing to/ telling the population to hoard food in advance of a voluntary decision they're making. And no one is stopping this?

If the fact that that can take place as a serious conversation is not an indictment of the current state of British politics, I don't know what it.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3313558-What-about-those-who-can-t-afford-to-stockpile?pg=2&order=

We've got a six month old here, moved him onto formula lately. Just last night I checked where the stuff is made, Germany! Was glad it wasn't UK.