Brexit discussion thread IV

seamus

It's not an unreasonable suggestion. With emanations from UK Government quarters about plans to stockpile food and medicine, this illustrates and expectation of at least a couple of days of disruption.

See what happened here during the snow with shortages of certain foods. Lots of people hunkered down and made do with what they had because they knew it would clear in a couple of days. Imagine if the shops were talking about food shortages but forecasters weren't able to tell you if the snow would clear in a day or a month.

Only so much food can be stockpiled; two weeks seems about the right amount of time for individuals to start running out and to become increasingly frustrated at queues and rationing of everything. One would expect a semi-competent government could come to a basic agreement with the EU to get stuff moving again, but the UK currently lacks a semi-competent government.

Once the British people start seeing queues for basic things like petrol and food, they will realise the damage that's been done, and there'll be a common awakening and anger at how they've been deceived.

listermint

seamus wrote: »

It's not an unreasonable suggestion. With emanations from UK Government quarters about plans to stockpile food and medicine, this illustrates and expectation of at least a couple of days of disruption.

See what happened here during the snow with shortages of certain foods. Lots of people hunkered down and made do with what they had because they knew it would clear in a couple of days. Imagine if the shops were talking about food shortages but forecasters weren't able to tell you if the snow would clear in a day or a month.

Only so much food can be stockpiled; two weeks seems about the right amount of time for individuals to start running out and to become increasingly frustrated at queues and rationing of everything. One would expect a semi-competent government could come to a basic agreement with the EU to get stuff moving again, but the UK currently lacks a semi-competent government.

Once the British people start seeing queues for basic things like petrol and food, they will realise the damage that's been done, and there'll be a common awakening and anger at how they've been deceived.

I don't think the point was if it was an unreasonable suggestion.

I think the point is that it doesn't appear shocking to anyone on it that it's a suggestion at all nor a requirement.

It shouldnt be this way.the fact that is the new normal is alarming

Hurrache

seamus wrote: »

One would expect a semi-competent government could come to a basic agreement with the EU to get stuff moving again, but the UK currently lacks a semi-competent government.

Can you imagine food drops being flown in by UN aircraft to aid the starving populaiton, to the UK, It's a Black Mirror episode.

Beechwoodspark

listermint wrote: »

I don't think the point was if it was an unreasonable suggestion.

I think the point is that it doesn't appear shocking to anyone on it that it's a suggestion at all nor a requirement.

It shouldnt be this way.the fact that is the new normal I'd alarming

Boris no doubt will be looking in with interest from his carribean villa

Zubeneschamali

seamus wrote: »

Once the British people start seeing queues for basic things like petrol and food, they will realise the damage that's been done, and there'll be a common awakening and anger at how they've been deceived.

No, every red top and TV channel from SKY to the BBC will be blaming the EU for punishing the UK for valiantly standing up for themselves - that's where the anger will be directed.

I would not fancy having a foreign accent in the UK in April/May next year.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, every red top and TV channel from SKY to the BBC will be blaming the EU for punishing the UK for valiantly standing up for themselves - that's where the anger will be directed.

I would not fancy having a foreign accent in the UK in April/May next year.

Scotland's press seems to be already blaming the Tories and the DUP

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16369923.iain-macwhirter-no-deal-brexit-would-mean-no-more-uk/?ref=fbshr

I don't think anyone but a tiny minority will be able to blame the EU without being demolished by the facts.
Last weeks shennanigans in parliament were widely documented.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Scotland's press seems to be already blaming the Tories and the DUP

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16369923.iain-macwhirter-no-deal-brexit-would-mean-no-more-uk/?ref=fbshr

I don't think anyone but a tiny minority will be able to blame the EU without being demolished by the facts.
Last weeks shennanigans in parliament were widely documented.

Why? They have been blaming the EU for 40 years without any of the facts, not going to change now.

ambro25

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, every red top and TV channel from SKY to the BBC will be blaming the EU for punishing the UK for valiantly standing up for themselves - that's where the anger will be directed.

I would not fancy having a foreign accent in the UK in April/May next year.

That was one of the (several) main considerations in my decision to leave the U.K. early: history is replete with serially-repeated evidence that, in times of penury or political expediency, it’s always the “other” ‘s fault.

And there’s no need for government, politicians or red tops to fingerpoint and scapegoat: it’s human nature, as old as the world. They just exploit it to their own ends. Always have.

When you’re finished adding the xenophobic component of the Leave vote; the volume and geographical spread of the Leave vote across the U.K.; the likelihood of strong correlation between educational level (inclusive of anti-EU beliefs), socio-economic level and propensity to commit crimes; and lastly the dual certainty that Brexit (of whichever flavour) will both impoverish the UK and impoverish most those in the above socio-economic bracket...

...anti-EU hate crimes on the run up to, and particularly post, March 2019 are a certainty. With a worst-case scenario/perfect storm in case of no deal crash out Brexit.

But that’s just the personal security angle, and (very) hopefully it will stay anecdotal. More generally however, I’d certainly expect widespread ‘latent’ discriminating acts in the context of employment, access to justice, access to services public and private, bullying in schools and workplace, with little or nothing done about it. It already started feeling like that in the past 2 years, but I can only see it growing far, far worse after a hard Brexit with public opinion whipped against the intransigent EU.

Which is why I’ve been exhorting several (northern-)U.K.-based friends with funny names and accents to weigh their options very carefully indeed.

Leroy42

One of the things that runs through any debate is the inability of the Brexiteers to face the consequences. Even the likes of JRM, who is advocating for a no deal, when asked about flights/food or whatever, simply says that something will be worked out. That the EU will allow a temporary lifting of rules etc.

But even that implies a deal. And what are the UK offering in return? "Helps us out so that we can leave you easier". Even the calls for EEA. Clearly for many, it is nothing but a stepping stone on the road. Now you can't tie any country to anything, but the EU should at least be looking for time commitments on a half way house such as that. It can't be that the UK can simply keep taking up all the time and effort every time they have a bit of hassle at home.

kunst nugget

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't think anyone but a tiny minority will be able to blame the EU without being demolished by the facts.
Last weeks shennanigans in parliament were widely documented.

Eurocrats yesterday tore apart Theresa May’s Chequers offer. Yes, the same offer already so over-generous it almost collapsed her Government.

The Sun has never been more gloomy about the chance of a deal. There is nothing more Mrs May can compromise on.

But Brussels is run by deluded bullies who apparently think they cannot lose.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6823383/sun-says-irish-pm-leo-varadkar/

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why? They have been blaming the EU for 40 years without any of the facts, not going to change now.

Very quickly, the 'EU is to blame' will be replaced by infighting between the diferent factions. Mogg and Boris are already figures of fun to a large cohort of the UK. That will turn to anger very quickly.
ANd I have very little doubt that the outcome will be a power base that wants to heal the relationship with the EU

Nody

Hurrache wrote: »

Can you imagine food drops being flown in by UN aircraft to aid the starving populaiton, to the UK, It's a Black Mirror episode.

Actually EU could use it as an excuse to dump the excess food on the UK; after all EU has plenty of food they buy to prop up prices etc. Put it on trucks and send it over to UK as a "show of good will". Put it to use to prop up the EU farmers (over UK farmers) while at the same time ensure it does not take up warehouse space.

ArmaniJeanss

Not much to do with Brexit but gives an idea of the current government mindset on honouring things they've signed up.

Generally always been accepted that no EU country will extradite to the USA unless 'no death penalty' is specified in the warrant/charge. UK signed up to this via ECHR.
But the new home secretary seems to have decided this can now be changed on a case-by-case basis as London sees fit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jul/23/javid-says-british-militants-can-be-tried-in-us-without-usual-no-death-penalty-assurance-politics-live

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Very quickly, the 'EU is to blame' will be replaced by infighting between the diferent factions. Mogg and Boris are already figures of fun to a large cohort of the UK. That will turn to anger very quickly.
ANd I have very little doubt that the outcome will be a power base that wants to heal the relationship with the EU

I see no indications of any of that. Boris might well be laughed at, but he is very popular and still a leading contender of the next leader of the Tories.

JRM is seen very much as leading the charge for British sovereignty. Whilst there are many that don't like him, he has a big level pf support.

As stated by a previous poster, it is human nature to blame others. To blame the likes of JRM or Boris, the voters also need to accept that they have been taken in an fooled. Or they can claim that Brexit would have been great if only the EU had played fair rather than setting out to punish Britain.

Now, it is possible that they will take the time to reflect, but my money is on the latter.

And all the coverage so far would back this up (or is it that I have this idea because of the coverage?). It all blames the EU, Leo being a fool, the Irish getting uppity etc etc.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see no indications of any of that. Boris might well be laughed at, but he is very popular and still a leading contender of the next leader of the Tories.

JRM is seen very much as leading the charge for British sovereignty. Whilst there are many that don't like him, he has a big level pf support.

Both these things are completely untested.
And the support is probably confined to a slim majority of Tory support.

As stated by a previous poster, it is human nature to blame others. To blame the likes of JRM or Boris, the voters also need to accept that they have been taken in an fooled. Or they can claim that Brexit would have been great if only the EU had played fair rather than setting out to punish Britain.

Now, it is possible that they will take the time to reflect, but my money is on the latter.

And all the coverage so far would back this up (or is it that I have this idea because of the coverage?). It all blames the EU, Leo being a fool, the Irish getting uppity etc etc.

The Remain vote hasn't gone away and I don't think they will be blaming the EU.

You are right, it is human nature to blame others, but there is enough fodder for that internally in the UK.
It will be all out political civil war in the UK imo. We in the EU will be spectators.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see no indications of any of that. Boris might well be laughed at, but he is very popular and still a leading contender of the next leader of the Tories.

I'm not so sure he is popular. Uxbridge and South Ruislip is a safe Tory seat. Regarding the chances of his becoming PM, the leader of the Conservative party is narrowed to two candidates by MP's and then voted for by the ever dwindling and aged party membership.

Leroy42 wrote: »

JRM is seen very much as leading the charge for British sovereignty. Whilst there are many that don't like him, he has a big level pf support.

Where exactly? Another MP in a safe seat. Among Brexiteers, sure but outside puritanical conservatives and said Brexiteers he's viewed as little more than a cartoon character. His extreme position prevents him from being leader of his party.

Leroy42 wrote: »

As stated by a previous poster, it is human nature to blame others. To blame the likes of JRM or Boris, the voters also need to accept that they have been taken in an fooled. Or they can claim that Brexit would have been great if only the EU had played fair rather than setting out to punish Britain.

Now, it is possible that they will take the time to reflect, but my money is on the latter.

And all the coverage so far would back this up (or is it that I have this idea because of the coverage?). It all blames the EU, Leo being a fool, the Irish getting uppity etc etc.

It does but newspaper circulation has been dropping steadily for some time now in favour of online echo chambers and social media which are free at the point of use. The problem is that remaining in the EU doesn't fix the underlying issues behind Brexit, namely economic uncertainty, wealth inequality and an establishment which is drifting further and further away from the people it is supposed to represent.

McGiver

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Wanderer78 wrote: »

But is a union with a serious democratic deficit the way to go?

There is a reason for the supposed democratic deficit in the EU, it's called the European Council. You could go down the line of fully democratising the EU, making the commission responsible to Parliament and making Parliament the pre-eminent body in the EU institutions in reality as well as in aspiration. The dificulty with doing that, and the reason that it has not yet been done, is that lots of people and lots of member states don't want it to be that way. Many many people want the EU to stay as a collection of member states. Hence the European Council is the powerhouse in the EU moreso than Parliament.

Now, each government represented in the European Council is elected by their own people, so the whole democratic deficit argument can only be taken so far, but if the EU is somewhat undemocratic, then it is because thats what people want.

EDIT: I should add that the current set up, for all its faults, is probably better for small nations like Ireland. As it stands, Ireland is one of 27, with an equal seat at the table, and a veto on many aspects of policy where the EU can only act with the concent of all members. In a fully democratised EU, we are only 4.5 million people in a 500 million population, and our MEP's would be split up among the various different groupings in parliament. I am in favour of a more powerful parliament in the EU, but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Our seat on the European Council is hugely important to us.

Fair enough, but think you've missed the Lisbon Treaty. Most decisions in the Council require qualified majority (at least 16 countries and 55% of the population) not unanimity as pre-Lisbon. Other than that I agree the Council is very important in the current setup.
Also, I'd add that the Commission is "undemocratic" i.e. appointed by the strongest party leader in the Parliament by design. It's not possible to let 27 countries' citizens vote for 27 commissioners. How would that be exactly done? The Commission must be appointed, in the same way ministers are appointed in every European executive/government.

FrancieBrady

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not so sure he is popular. Uxbridge and South Ruislip is a safe Tory seat. Regarding the chances of his becoming PM, the leader of the Conservative party is narrowed to two candidates by MP's and then voted for by the ever dwindling and aged party membership.



Where exactly? Another MP in a safe seat. Among Brexiteers, sure but outside puritanical conservatives and said Brexiteers he's viewed as little more than a cartoon character. His extreme position prevents him from being leader of his party.



It does but newspaper circulation has been dropping steadily for some time now in favour of online echo chambers and social media which are free at the point of use. The problem is that remaining in the EU doesn't fix the underlying issues behind Brexit, namely economic uncertainty, wealth inequality and an establishment which is drifting further and further away from the people it is supposed to represent.

The influence of Redtops at times like this is way over estimated.

If they had the influence stated the UK would be in a constant state of chaos.

lawred2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Scotland's press seems to be already blaming the Tories and the DUP

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16369923.iain-macwhirter-no-deal-brexit-would-mean-no-more-uk/?ref=fbshr

I don't think anyone but a tiny minority will be able to blame the EU without being demolished by the facts.
Last weeks shennanigans in parliament were widely documented.

he's just a bitter remoaner :pac:

That's a good read - don't know how you could read that as a British person and not be even somewhat concerned.

ambro25

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The influence of Redtops at times like this is way over estimated.

If they had the influence stated the UK would be in a constant state of chaos.

Given the actual state of the U.K...

[Futurama Fray meme]mmmhm...not sure if genuine reply, or ironic post [/meme]

McGiver

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Bottom line: Useful insights can come from the most unlikely of sources, even in the most fevered of debates like Brexit. Things are going to get rougher over the next few months and emotions are going to run high. While there will be a role for passionate language on occasion, we are already running a big deficit in cold calculating analysis.

True, but AGW denial discredits person quite a lot. As does portrayal of Treaty of Rome as some sort of a conspiracy of an arch-conspirator and devil incarnate Monnet. Strong stuff.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Scotland's press seems to be already blaming the Tories and the DUP

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16369923.iain-macwhirter-no-deal-brexit-would-mean-no-more-uk/?ref=fbshr

What a good article. Hits nearly all the main points. And points out, numerous times, how the pro-brexit side have offered nothing in the way of answers.

It is one of the major ironies of Brexit (there are quite a few) that taking back control could very well spell the end of the union itself.

But bearing in mind that Brexiteers are more than happy to thrash, the lords, the justice system, MP ability to make a choice, experts, the GFA, NI, the civil service etc etc, it appears that Brexit is worth any and all costs

McGiver

seamus wrote: »

Once the British people start seeing queues for basic things like petrol and food, they will realise the damage that's been done, and there'll be a common awakening and anger at how they've been deceived.

I'd expect at least 25% that to blame the EU and demand harder Brexit or military intervention. The polls support this. This is really dangerous situation. Britain may descend to fascism.

kunst nugget

What's going on most be so galling for Scotland whose fear of losing their place in the EU is what got the no vote over the line in the independence referendum.

Havockk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

http://uk.businessinsider.com/amazon-uk-boss-doug-gurr-warns-brexit-spark-civil-unrest-2018-7



This is making quite the splash today. Reactions are as expected . Project fear for one side an other dead Canary for the other

A few years back, in London, an (armed) man travelling in the back of a taxi was shot dead by armed Police. This not only caused unrest which turned into rioting, the rioting spread across English cities like a virus.

I would almost guarantee this is going to happen again within a year.

kowtow

According to the independent both Germany and France are warning that it will be Ireland that has to establish the border and that it will be "The hardest border in Europe"... at least the way things are going at present. Is this the response to Leo's reported assertion last week that he had assurances from Europe which would mean that we would never have to establish a border?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html

trellheim

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The influence of Redtops at times like this is way over estimated.

If they had the influence stated the UK would be in a constant state of chaos.

Good point.


My view at the moment is an apathetic middle (why havent we left yet) is being dragged by the (out at any costs) brigade.

Because the answer is actually a difficult one no matter which choice you pick the average person looks to authority to see what to do (i.e. the media and the Govt ). This is less than useful - Govt and Media are currently not particularly good advisers right now (IMHO ) . I'd have expected a significant majority (60%+) to have united behind some way forward by now. That they have not ( not even a Dunkirk Spirit ) is telling.

PS I expect this to happen soon by the way

lawred2

kowtow wrote: »

According to the independent both Germany and France are warning that it will be Ireland that has to establish the border and that it will be "The hardest border in Europe"... at least the way things are going at present. Is this the response to Leo's reported assertion last week that he had assurances from Europe which would mean that we would never have to establish a border?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html

It's hard to argue that it could be any other way given the Tory 'red lines'

judeboy101

kowtow wrote: »

According to the independent both Germany and France are warning that it will be Ireland that has to establish the border and that it will be "The hardest border in Europe"... at least the way things are going at present. Is this the response to Leo's reported assertion last week that he had assurances from Europe which would mean that we would never have to establish a border?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html

So be it, buy a couple of 1000 landmines from NK and lay in a 100m strip on our side of border. Sniper posts every 200m with random roving patrols with a shoot to kill policy. ðŸ˜

Sam Russell

judeboy101 wrote: »

So be it, buy a couple of 1000 landmines from NK and lay in a 100m strip on our side of border. Sniper posts every 200m with random roving patrols with a shoot to kill policy. ðŸ˜

- back to the borders of the past.

1, As an interim - commercial vehicles can only cross at designated points.

2. Roving customs check points a few km south of the border.

3. Vehicles going north not our problem.

4. Huge fines for miscreants.

5. Trust everybody. [Well, trust nobody].

Did not work from 1969 to 1995 - so wont work now.