Brexit discussion thread IV

trellheim

Ryanair latest fins

(translated and cut out some stuff re the strikes etc )

https://www.investor.bg/evropa/334/a/visokite-razhodi-za-zaplati-zasegnaha-pechalbata-na-ryanair--265144/

However, the airline is expected to meet its forecast for annual profit in the range between EUR 1.25 and 1.35 billion.

The airline said it was concerned about the dangers of "hard Brexit", believing that this risk was underestimated.

She warned UK shareholders that they could lose their right to vote in the case of "heavy" Brexit.

"While there is a prospect of a 21-month transition agreement from March 2019 to December 2020, recent developments in the British political sphere have added further uncertainty and we believe that the risk of" hard "Brexit remains underestimated", warned company.

"We may be forced to restrict the voting rights of all shareholders outside the European Union (EU) in the event of a" hard "Brexit to ensure that Ryanair remains a majority shareholder of EU shareholders," the airline .

megaten

kowtow wrote: »

According to the independent both Germany and France are warning that it will be Ireland that has to establish the border and that it will be "The hardest border in Europe"... at least the way things are going at present. Is this the response to Leo's reported assertion last week that he had assurances from Europe which would mean that we would never have to establish a border?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html

Not having to establish a border is dependent on their being a deal between the EU and UK. The backstop doesn't apply if the UK crashes out.

trellheim

whoaaaaa...... CTA predates the EU and is still "agreed arrangement" . Also we don't do exit checks at our airports and ports ; you can get on a flight to USA tomorrow and nobody except US immigration will check you.

Any border would be for goods and services

listermint

trellheim wrote: »

whoaaaaa...... CTA predates the EU and is still "agreed arrangement" . Also we don't do exit checks at our airports and ports ; you can get on a flight to USA tomorrow and nobody except US immigration will check you.

Any border would be for goods and services

CTA doesnt apply to all citizens in both Countries.

So no checks for this would be required.

Trasna1

kowtow wrote: »

According to the independent both Germany and France are warning that it will be Ireland that has to establish the border and that it will be "The hardest border in Europe"... at least the way things are going at present. Is this the response to Leo's reported assertion last week that he had assurances from Europe which would mean that we would never have to establish a border?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html

I'm not sure what was actually said, but if it's as reported, it was a silly thing for Leo to come out with. If the UK decides to go back on what was agreed, then a full customs border will be required. Ireland will be obliged to put it up on our side.

The alternative is effectively be drawn into SM and CU with the UK with the border at our ports, putting Ireland outside the EU in all but name.

I will take a border with NI any day of the week over and above all of the island being brought back into London's orbit. NI will come around eventually.

It won't be the hardest though - the EU-Russia one will remain harder, since tha controls people too.

judeboy101

Sam Russell wrote: »

- back to the borders of the past.

1, As an interim - commercial vehicles can only cross at designated points.

2. Roving customs check points a few km south of the border.

3. Vehicles going north not our problem.

4. Huge fines for miscreants.

5. Trust everybody. [Well, trust nobody].

Did not work from 1969 to 1995 - so wont work now.

I crossed the border every weekend in the '80s. You definitely knew it was there and ill never forget having my family lined up by a car with a machine gun on us while the car is flittered by a squaddie.

ambro25

kowtow wrote: »

According to the independent both Germany and France are warning that it will be Ireland that has to establish the border and that it will be "The hardest border in Europe"... at least the way things are going at present. Is this the response to Leo's reported assertion last week that he had assurances from Europe which would mean that we would never have to establish a border?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html

I don’t see why it should be the “hardest” in Europe: it’s going to have to be just as “hard” in France, Belgium, Holland (main fret crossing points with the U.K.) and in Spain (Gibraltar).

Walks, looks and sounds like rethoric to me, tbh.

ambro25

ambro25 wrote: »

I don’t see why it should be the “hardest” in Europe: it’s going to have to be just as “hard” in France, Belgium, Holland (main fret crossing points with the U.K.) and in Spain (Gibraltar).

Walks, looks and sounds like rethoric to me, tbh.

Border controls in ports or airports feel different to coming across a checkpoint on a random country road. You expect and accept checks before getting on a train/boat/plane.

The above don't have the same history of militarism and threat of terrorism either.

judeboy101

listermint wrote: »

CTA doesnt apply to all citizens in both Countries.

So no checks for this would be required.

Cta was suspended 1939-1952 and only covers british/irish born NOT those who acquire citizenship. In reality that's never in force, but I can see it suspended again as the main premise is that we follow UK immigration law which will change post brexit.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Border controls in ports or airports feel different to coming across a checkpoint on a random country road. You expect and accept checks before getting on a train/boat/plane.

The above don't have the same history of militarism and threat of terrorism either.

Exactly, the European Ports and Airports form natural border points, we have 200 crossing points, the vast majority of which will have to be blocked to road traffic, there will also have to be infrastructure on all the main crossing points that are left open.

An Ciarraioch

An actual article today following up yesterday's FF-SDLP speculation:

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-to-announce-in-september-plans-to-contest-elections-in-northern-ireland-37143971.html?__twitter_impression=true

trellheim

listermint wrote: »

CTA doesnt apply to all citizens in both Countries.

So no checks for this would be required.

Which we already de-facto ( with not a lot to back it ) do at airports

kowtow

ambro25 wrote: »

I don’t see why it should be the “hardest” in Europe: it’s going to have to be just as “hard” in France, Belgium, Holland (main fret crossing points with the U.K.) and in Spain (Gibraltar).

Walks, looks and sounds like rethoric to me, tbh.

It's rhetoric alright, the question is what is behind the message?

I suppose there are two things that worry me about where we find ourselves.

The first - and there is f** all we can do about it now - is whether it might not have been better to lead from the rear on the border issue and try to dissuade the EU from making such a political fulcrum of it in the overall negotiations. Whilst I understand the difficulties and the shortcomings of it - had we (in Ireland) gone along more with the bells and whistles electronics approach and maybe asked for a few years to get it to work along with the UK, particularly if it was a special solution for Ireland, I wonder if we might have had a less stressful road ahead of us at this point. Instead, when the EU decided to apply the hammer we did rather offer ourselves up as the nail.

I can't be the only one that feels that the border has been played harder than it might otherwise have been partly in the hope that it would effectively keep the UK in the CU at least - hell, it might just do that yet although I am increasingly doubtful.

The second concern I have now is that whatever short term support and financial indulgence we get from the EU26 to compensate us for a hard border - and I think the support will be generous - we will end up paying a price elsewhere in the medium term, particularly around corporate taxation, and harmonisation, FTT etc.

The way things are at present the UK/Irish relationship is bearing the brunt of the UK/EU animosity, both politically and likely economically and, jingoism aside, that is a regrettable state of affairs.

Dyr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

An actual article today following up yesterday's FF-SDLP speculation:

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-to-announce-in-september-plans-to-contest-elections-in-northern-ireland-37143971.html?__twitter_impression=true

FF have been threatening to go north of the border for 20 years, like Lynch in 69 it's always only been threats

An Ciarraioch

An interesting proposal today - televised Brexit debates before the final parliamentary vote:

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/07/23/time-for-tv-debates-if-may-s-still-confident-in-her-brexit-p

trellheim

Britain's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said there was a risk that unless there is a change in attitude from EU negotiators a no deal Brexit could happen by accident.

On his first foreign visit after being appointed last week following Boris Johnson's resignation, Mr Hunt said in Berlin that Germany was "one of Britain's best friends in the world" and they shared a commitment to a "rules-based international order".

He also said the British public would blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit, which would shape its attitudes towards the EU "for a generation".

Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said Germany wanted to see an orderly Brexit.

Apart from the obvious name puns this is a man sent on the rounds cos he aint getting any from Barnier ( isn't leo on a magical mystery tour as well ? )

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0723/980526-brexit/

kunst nugget

Britain's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said there was a risk that unless there is a change in attitude from EU negotiators a no deal Brexit could happen by accident.

He also said the British public would blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit, which would shape its attitudes towards the EU "for a generation".

I love that. 'We're leaving and even though we haven't got a clue what we're doing, it's your fault if the shít hits the fan'

Christy42

I reckon they won't blame the EU for a no deal Brexit.

I mean I am sure some will try but it is tough to get the same venom with no course of action to back it up. For years it has been, it is the EU's fault we should have less to do with them. Now it will be it's the EU's fault we should ummm errrr. Doesn't work as well so they will have to go for someone else in the end.

If they get any sort of a deal they can happily continue with blaming the EU and saying the deal should be cancelled or whatever.

briany

kowtow wrote: »

According to the independent both Germany and France are warning that it will be Ireland that has to establish the border and that it will be "The hardest border in Europe"... at least the way things are going at present. Is this the response to Leo's reported assertion last week that he had assurances from Europe which would mean that we would never have to establish a border?

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-will-have-hardest-border-in-europe-if-uk-doesnt-reach-brexit-deal-ally-of-merkel-warns-37142875.html

Neither of them are, according to that article. There's no official voice speaking for either of those countries, only an 'ally' and some unnamed sources. It's a bit like quoting Ken Clarke on his Brexit opinion and then saying the UK has said it wants to stay in.

kowtow

I think Jeremy Hunt's words are code for:-

"They won't be buying German cars no matter where they are made.."

Easy to forget the nationalistic loyalty of the car buyer... I'm old enough to remember a different generation of family members refusing to buy German or Japanese cars in the 1970's and 80's - they are what kept the rust-buckets coming out of the last remaining British manufacturers.

Royale with Cheese

kunst nugget wrote: »

Britain's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said there was a risk that unless there is a change in attitude from EU negotiators a no deal Brexit could happen by accident.

He also said the British public would blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit, which would shape its attitudes towards the EU "for a generation".

What does the average somewhat educated/intelligent person of Britain think of nonsense like the above? I'm baffled at how deluded some of these types of statements coming out of the UK government are.

I watched a lenghty youtube video last night where John Major was interviewed by ITV, this is the interview in which he said there is now cause for a second referendum (he stopped short of calling for one at this moment in time though). Comments were disabled, but the video had nearly as many downvotes as upvotes. Major did nothing but talk sense, yet the video appears deeply unpopular. I'm sure if comments were enabled it'd be full of the usual remoaner nonsense. Is there an online cohort of pro brexit people just shouting down anything they don't like, or are the general population over there really that deluded?

ambro25

Deleted User wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

I don’t see why it should be the “hardest” in Europe: it’s going to have to be just as “hard” in France, Belgium, Holland (main fret crossing points with the U.K.) and in Spain (Gibraltar).

Walks, looks and sounds like rethoric to me, tbh.

Border controls in ports or airports feel different to coming across a checkpoint on a random country road. You expect and accept checks before getting on a train/boat/plane.

The above don't have the same history of militarism and threat of terrorism either.

I appreciate your sentiment. But.

I’m old enough to have been crossing physical borders with France, Luxembourg, Belgium and Germany, daily for work, years before the SM (and Schengen later on) - no ports or airports involved. And I was privileged to live in the RoI for a few years in the 2000s, and to gain a decent enough understanding of its history, including its more troubled side of it.

As for terrorism, although I do not draw a direct parallel with NI, I grew up in France in the 70s until the very early 90s, which has been the scene of terrorist activity for decades (fundie Muslim are just the latest bunch). I don’t draw a parallel with NI because I know better...but unlike your average Brits (and younger types who cannot know different) at least, I know what a physical border is like, what paras patrolling streets in full gear, stop-and-search, and improvised road stops (with gendarmes and customs types) looks like.

(I’m briefly passing on the area of France I’m from, suffice to say it’s been French and German a few times, with the physical border changed a few times too, over the past century alone: we know about nationalism and its worst excesses, believe you me. Intimately)

All that to say: we’re talking the erection of borders for people and goods, in the sense of retrograding about 30 years’ worth of efforts at making those borders ever more redundant and invisible, between the EU integrated as it is today (not 30 years ago) and a 3rd party country; so it’s going to be a “hard” border at every border that the U.K. has. Not only the land one between the RoI and NI.

listermint

kowtow wrote: »

I think Jeremy Hunt's words are code for:-

"They won't be buying German cars no matter where they are made.."

Easy to forget the nationalistic loyalty of the car buyer... I'm old enough to remember a different generation of family members refusing to buy German or Japanese cars in the 1970's and 80's - they are what kept the rust-buckets coming out of the last remaining British manufacturers.

but not many people can afford McClarens.....


That attitude cant survive because there is no indigenous vehicle marques.

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

An interesting proposal today - televised Brexit debates before the final parliamentary vote:

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/07/23/time-for-tv-debates-if-may-s-still-confident-in-her-brexit-p

Did you see TM trying, and failing, to answer Yvette Coopers questions?

no way TM will be involved in any TV debates

kowtow

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

What does the average somewhat educated/intelligent person of Britain think of nonsense like the above? I'm baffled at how deluded some of these types of statements coming out of the UK government are.

I watched a lenghty youtube video last night where John Major was interviewed by ITV, this is the interview in which he said there is now cause for a second referendum (he stopped short of calling for one at this moment in time though). Comments were disabled, but the video had nearly as many downvotes as upvotes. Major did nothing but talk sense, yet the video appears deeply unpopular. I'm sure if comments were enabled it'd be full of the usual remoaner nonsense. Is there an online cohort of pro brexit people just shouting down anything they don't like, or are the general population over there really that deluded?

I think in Major's case there is baggage - most importantly his acceptance of Maastricht during his own tenure which has never been forgiven by many, and more recently his strong remain / project fear participation during the referendum. Come to think of it I'm pretty sure he came out before the referendum saying that in no circumstances could there be a second referendum - the vote in 2016 was the one that counted?

It's basically the messenger as much as the message.

FrancieBrady

kowtow wrote: »

I think in Major's case there is baggage - most importantly his acceptance of Maastricht during his own tenure which has never been forgiven by many, and more recently his strong remain / project fear participation during the referendum. Come to think of it I'm pretty sure he came out before the referendum saying that in no circumstances could there be a second referendum - the vote in 2016 was the one that counted?

It's basically the messenger as much as the message.

Sammy Wilson was vitriolic about those very things when Major's name was mentioned in a TV debate last night.

Leroy42

kowtow wrote: »

I think in Major's case there is baggage - most importantly his acceptance of Maastricht during his own tenure which has never been forgiven by many, and more recently his strong remain / project fear participation during the referendum. Come to think of it I'm pretty sure he came out before the referendum saying that in no circumstances could there be a second referendum - the vote in 2016 was the one that counted?

It's basically the messenger as much as the message.

But therein lies another problem with the whole idea behind Brexit.

They don't like the EU because it is Brussels telling them what laws to pass and they want their own parliament to do that. Yet they hate all the politicians in the parliament that pass laws that they don't like!

CelticRambler

kowtow wrote: »

Whilst I understand the difficulties and the shortcomings of it - had we (in Ireland) gone along more with the bells and whistles electronics approach and maybe asked for a few years to get it to work along with the UK, particularly if it was a special solution for Ireland, I wonder if we might have had a less stressful road ahead of us at this point.

What bells, what whistles? There are none currently in existence, and no sketches of any yet to be invented, other than the "we'll think of something" statements of proven-unreliable Brexiteers, so what is or was there to go along with?


From before the result was announced, the only practical solution to a Leave vote was an Irish Sea border, but (as pointed out earlier) no-one in either camp on "the mainland" paid the slightest bit of attention to the Irish Problem.


But NI is already well separated from GB, by geography, culture, law and economics; as, to a certain extent, is Gibraltar. So it is entirely appropriate that the UK as a whole should be made to think hard about the implications of their decision to return to the 1900s.



I'd be curious to know what discussions are taking place within SF right now. Naturally the public message will be "no hard border, no way, no never!" ... but I wonder if there's secret willingness to see NI shut off from the real world and left to stew in the black economic hole of post-Brexit Britain? With no money in Westminster available for propping up NI's public service, and no money in England's recessionary economy to support NI's intra-UK sales, the grass on the Republican side of the hard border is going to start looking very green.

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

But therein lies another problem with the whole idea behind Brexit.

They don't like the EU because it is Brussels telling them what laws to pass and they want their own parliament to do that. Yet they hate all the politicians in the parliament that pass laws that they don't like!

I suppose the logic is that they can more easily change the contents of their own parliament...

Actually in retrospect what has done a lot of harm for EU perception in the UK is the way things like Maastricht and subsequently Lisbon were sliced up and spun by their respective governments - neither required any referendum, of course, so there was never really a clear pro / anti debate going on - mostly there were varying degrees of anti with a strong temptation to sweep it under the carpet and sign up when nobody was looking.

Had there been a better public debate at the time the pro-EU case might have been better put and there would in any event have been less of an impression of parliament alienating powers behind the people's backs.

Leroy42

Britain's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has said there was a risk that unless there is a change in attitude from EU negotiators a no deal Brexit could happen by accident.

He also said the British public would blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit, which would shape its attitudes towards the EU "for a generation".

What is the purpose of him saying that? Does he think that the German guy is going to "oh really, well we wouldn't want the UK to think the EU is a terrible idea,, that might end up with you guys leaving...oh wait"

Its a pointless, petty little remark, but shows the UK for the position they have. They have already started to try to work out how to blame someone else for this mess.

Their decision, yet it is other people to blame.