Brexit discussion thread IV

LuckyLloyd

CelticRambler wrote: »

I'd be curious to know what discussions are taking place within SF right now. Naturally the public message will be "no hard border, no way, no never!" ... but I wonder if there's secret willingness to see NI shut off from the real world and left to stew in the black economic hole of post-Brexit Britain? With no money in Westminster available for propping up NI's public service, and no money in England's recessionary economy to support NI's intra-UK sales, the grass on the Republican side of the hard border is going to start looking very green.

SF are masters of the long game with one single overriding objective which Brexit and the DUP are bringing closer than ever before in my lifetime right now. They are rolling in behind the government and letting it play out, which is exactly what they should be doing. Varadkar and Coveney are ably representing the views and concerns of Irish people south and north, so there is nothing else to be said.

A Hard Brexit will destroy the United Kingdom, so SF undoubtedly will privately welcome it to some extent.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the purpose of him saying that?

He also said the British public would blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit (if our cunning plan works...)

Inquitus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He also said the British public would blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit (if our cunning plan works...)

I'd say at least half will blame the Tories.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He also said the British public would blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit (if our cunning plan works...)

Yeah, I read the article. I just don't understand what they think that will achieve?

That the UK don't like the EU is clear, they have the will of the people after all. That people live Gove will try to blame the EU for something that was pretty obvious before hand is also pretty clear.

But, the only way that is a threat is that if Gove is saying that that in the near future the UK could be open to returning. If that really what he thinks? And if so, surely the EU are going to ask why go through all this bother for nothing

Trasna1

Leroy42 wrote: »

What is the purpose of him saying that? Does he think that the German guy is going to "oh really, well we wouldn't want the UK to think the EU is a terrible idea,, that might end up with you guys leaving...oh wait"

Its a pointless, petty little remark, but shows the UK for the position they have. They have already started to try to work out how to blame someone else for this mess.

Their decision, yet it is other people to blame.

I didn't understand the point of that comment either. Why would the EU care who the British public blames for the mess after they leave? They went have to clean it up, or worry about getting elected.

The Tories will be blamed anyway. And rightly so. Although the UK public will need to undergo some stuff examination, since they themselves are hardly blameless.

There are certain parallels between this situation and the 2008 crisis in Ireland (politically anyway).

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yeah, I read the article. I just don't understand what they think that will achieve?

That the UK don't like the EU is clear, they have the will of the people after all. That people live Gove will try to blame the EU for something that was pretty obvious before hand is also pretty clear.

But, the only way that is a threat is that if Gove is saying that that in the near future the UK could be open to returning. If that really what he thinks? And if so, surely the EU are going to ask why go through all this bother for nothing

I read it differently, I think it's intended to be heard by EU based manufacturers etc.

Whichever way you look at it no EU based business currently selling to consumers in the UK wants extra headwinds in a big wealthy part of their existing marketplace. It's easier to keep customers than to replace them with new ones....

I wonder if we are also at the stage where Hunt is talking about the difference between chaotic hard brexit / and clean exit.

There was a thoughtful article in the Spectator the other day suggesting that by hook or by crook the current mess in London may actually contain the bones of a solution. Haven't got the link to hand but the thrust was that May's hands are now publicly bound so she can politely disregard the pushback from Brussels or indeed push back harder herself and win the public around while preparing for a [hard / clean] brexit, all the while hoping with some justification that there will be a last minute counter-offer from the EU 27.

listermint

kowtow wrote: »

Haven't got the link to hand but the thrust was that May's hands are now publicly bound so she can politely disregard the pushback from Brussels or indeed push back harder herself and win the public around while preparing for a [hard / clean] brexit, all the while hoping with some justification that there will be a last minute counter-offer from the EU 27.

But the problem is that the UK spent the last 6 months setting fire to all bridges in the 27. The consensus seems to be , let them out and be done with it. No one cares and everyone wants them gone.

so counter offers wont be forthcoming.

The fact they cant see that is astounding.

kunst nugget

kowtow wrote: »

Haven't got the link to hand but the thrust was that May's hands are now publicly bound so she can politely disregard the pushback from Brussels or indeed push back harder herself and win the public around while preparing for a [hard / clean] brexit, all the while hoping with some justification that there will be a last minute counter-offer from the EU 27.

If the EU capitulate to the UK at the eleventh hour by giving up on any of their four freedom to strike a deal, the union will be gone within a decade.

kowtow

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Realistically what can the EU offer that would satisfy the brexiters and avoid the EU itself being put in danger, if you are a German car manufacturer the collapse of Eu would be a big problem compared to Brexit

Who Knows?

Perhaps a counter-offer is simply arrangements which enable a clean exit on WTO rules? What the Germans like to call an "orderly" exit.

There is a lot of confusion, some deliberate no doubt, going on between NO DEAL and WTO terms. It will be interesting to see what happens when / if the talks formally break up this week when an impasse is reached over Chequers (or did that happen already?)

Leroy42

kowtow wrote: »

I read it differently, I think it's intended to be heard by EU based manufacturers etc.

Whichever way you look at it no EU based business currently selling to consumers in the UK wants extra headwinds in a big wealthy part of their existing marketplace. It's easier to keep customers than to replace them with new ones....

All that certainly has in place, and I see where you are coming from (or should that read I see where you see they are coming from?)

But it then begs the question (as all the Brexiteer statements do. Doesn't Hunt think that EU citizens, the manufacturers, will not then blame the UK for this loss? And whilst the UK is a wealthy and large market, the EU is most bigger.

So on his own thinking, then the UK will lose out even more. Unless he seems to think that the Germans will simply continue to buy British out of some form of love for the brand, despite increased costs, whilst ignoring that it was due to the UK decision that they are now out of a job in the German car plant.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yeah, I read the article. I just don't understand what they think that will achieve?

You have to consider that nothing the UK Government says or does is directed at the EU at all. Everything they do and say is intended to be reported in the UK Press and read by their voters at home.

In this case, he is simply trying to get the words blame Brussels in the event of a chaotic EU exit printed in the UK papers. Repeat it often enough, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

kowtow

Leroy42 wrote: »

All that certainly has in place, and I see where you are coming from (or should that read I see where you see they are coming from?)

But it then begs the question (as all the Brexiteer statements do. Doesn't Hunt think that EU citizens, the manufacturers, will not then blame the UK for this loss? And whilst the UK is a wealthy and large market, the EU is most bigger.

So on his own thinking, then the UK will lose out even more. Unless he seems to think that the Germans will simply continue to buy British out of some form of love for the brand, despite increased costs, whilst ignoring that it was due to the UK decision that they are now out of a job in the German car plant.

I'm not sure that his own thinking stretches that far.

Wasn't it the teachers union that used to describe him as Jeremy "Hunt, H-U-N-T, the C is silent"

Water John

Hunt's remarks were about getting countries to move Barnier, in his thinking, move him literally from the negotiations, or get around him.
There selling the point that Barnier is the stumbling block.
Back to, shoot the messenger.
It's a last ditch effort to have some European countries blink. Looking for a chink between them, to exploit. The original British negotiating tactic.

McGiver

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

Is there an online cohort of pro brexit people just shouting down anything they don't like, or are the general population over there really that deluded?

Yes, there is. The wind blows from the Kremlin.

Bit cynical

kowtow wrote: »

I can't be the only one that feels that the border has been played harder than it might otherwise have been partly in the hope that it would effectively keep the UK in the CU at least - hell, it might just do that yet although I am increasingly doubtful.

The second concern I have now is that whatever short term support and financial indulgence we get from the EU26 to compensate us for a hard border - and I think the support will be generous - we will end up paying a price elsewhere in the medium term, particularly around corporate taxation, and harmonisation, FTT etc.

I think it is unlikely that, in the event of a hard border, the EU will compensate us. They will argue that they were following guidance from Ireland in taking the line they did.

brickster69

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

but not many people can afford McClarens.....


That attitude cant survive because there is no indigenous vehicle marques.

The "they need to sell us potatoes" line cracks me up, no we don't *need* to sell food to UK, however the population of UK needs to eat very much, you swear food is a luxury

The UK once it leaves can just arrange an agreement with Brazil to import Beef. McDonalds in the UK import 40,000 Tonnes alone from Ireland. Do you think they will pay 40% tarriffs  when they can purchase far far cheaper from elsewhere ? 

https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2017/12/13/Brazil-reveals-big-interest-in-post-Brexit-UK-meat-deal
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/brexit-is-an-existential-threat-to-irish-beef/

ambro25

Bit cynical wrote: »

kowtow wrote: »

I can't be the only one that feels that the border has been played harder than it might otherwise have been partly in the hope that it would effectively keep the UK in the CU at least - hell, it might just do that yet although I am increasingly doubtful.

The second concern I have now is that whatever short term support and financial indulgence we get from the EU26 to compensate us for a hard border - and I think the support will be generous - we will end up paying a price elsewhere in the medium term, particularly around corporate taxation, and harmonisation, FTT etc.

I think it is unlikely that, in the event of a hard border, the EU will compensate us. They will argue that they were following guidance from Ireland in taking the line they did.

I think diametrically opposite.

Because unity of the EU27 has been the EU’s steadiest line throughout the UK’s Brexit experiment, and nothing would undermine that argument and ideology -and vindicate the hardline Leavers- more than what you suggest.

Politically, the EU simply can’t afford not to help Ireland.

LeinsterDub

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is unlikely that, in the event of a hard border, the EU will compensate us. They will argue that they were following guidance from Ireland in taking the line they did.

A hard border is literally the opposite of what we want. It's not like the Irish 'guidance' exists in isolation. The EU and UK have also issued 'guidance' aka red lines

Leroy42

The pro-Brexit talking heads continually go back to this line about cheaper foods and clothing. But isn't all EU trade zero tariffs and zero customs? So to get cheaper they must be getting it from somewhere else which normally (but not always) means lower quality. The most extreme example being GMO meat from the US.

But the UK public have, as far as I recall, consistently said they don't want lower standards, so I'm not sure how they square that.

And how is that lower pricing going to impact on the domestic farmers (in this instance). Of course they will have lower standards too so their costs will fall, but will they be able to compete against the influx of cheaper products?

EdgeCase

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is unlikely that, in the event of a hard border, the EU will compensate us. They will argue that they were following guidance from Ireland in taking the line they did.

It's highly likely that any disruption will be charged to the UK actually via the 'divorce settlement'.

LeinsterDub

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-uk-eu-relationshi
The UK government has issued an pictogram version of the white paper

Leroy42

ambro25 wrote: »

I think diametrically opposite.

Because unity of the EU27 has been the EU’s steadiest line throughout the UK’s Brexit experiment, and nothing would undermine that argument and ideology -and vindicate the hardline Leavers- more than what you suggest.

Politically, the EU simply can’t afford not to help Ireland.

What have they done to help Italy and Greece with the refugee crisis?

Ireland is a wealthy country in EU terms, a fast growing economy (at least until March 19!).

I think there may be some funds made to get a border up and running quickly, certainly I would expect that experts from other border countries to be brought in to help oversee the implementation etc, but longer term or money for loss of the economy? Don't see that happening?

Will our farmers be given additional subsidies to deal with the loss in trade? I doubt it.

El Weirdo

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's highly likely that any disruption will be charged to the UK actually via the 'divorce settlement'.

But if there's no deal, there's no divorce settlement.

listermint

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2017/12/13/Brazil-reveals-big-interest-in-post-Brexit-UK-meat-deal
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/brexit-is-an-existential-threat-to-irish-beef/

Why are you linking articles to say big interest in british beef?

Of course their will be as they will have to sell it at bottom dollar due to the position they will find themselves in,

Could be below cost.

That will do nothing more than kill the farming sector in the UK and decimate the industry. Farmers will not be able to sustain that.

So yes id imagine there is alot of interest in it due to the former EU standards, but it would be short lived.

Water John

The US has already beef, with added GMO and hormones, already piling up in their warehouses due to tariffs from China.
If that what JRM wants to feed the British public along with his other bs, then let people understand that.

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's highly likely that any disruption will be charged to the UK actually via the 'divorce settlement'.

But we are talking about no-deal Brexit, there is no settlement.

brickster69

listermint wrote: »

brickster69 wrote: »

https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2017/12/13/Brazil-reveals-big-interest-in-post-Brexit-UK-meat-deal
https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/brexit-is-an-existential-threat-to-irish-beef/

Why are you linking articles to say big interest in british beef?

Of course their will be as they will have to sell it at bottom dollar due to the position they will find themselves in,

Could be below cost.

That will do nothing more than kill the farming sector in the UK and decimate the industry. Farmers will not be able to sustain that.

So yes id imagine there is alot of interest in it due to the former EU standards, but it would be short lived.

The article was talking about the Irish Beef sector. The UK  Beef industry can only supply 60% of demand hence the need to import.

listermint

brickster69 wrote: »

The article was talking about the Irish Beef sector. The UK  Beef industry can only supply 60% of demand hence the need to import.

But we already know there will be problems with Irish Beef to the UK, So we are already looking at the no Tariff European market and markets further afield.

Ireland doesnt have its head buried in the sand with Brexit on the contrary we have been expecting british intransigence because we are used to it.

Water John

The two big agri worries are beef and cheddar. Others eat beef but there is no alternative market for cheddar. We make cheddar to mainly get the whey, oddly enough.

trellheim

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-uk-eu-relationshi
The UK government has issued an pictogram version of the white paper

slight link error

here's the actual https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/728135/THE_FUTURE_UK-EU_RELATIONSHIP.pdf

Edit : everyone take a few mins to have a read its actually written with some clarity