Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

Peter Foster has a lengthy multi-tweet Twitter thread summarising his Telegraph article in which he states how both Ireland and the UK could be satisfied with the NI backstop. Basically the UK would sign up to the current proposal, but a "parallel backstop" would keep Britain in a "temporary" customs agreement:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1022058398165041155

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1022059345067036674

Inquitus

Leroy42 wrote: »

I thought Osbornes Tweet (can't link to it for here) was the best yesterday. Basically the announcement that TM was taking over the responsibility for the negotiations was met with a simple;

"News Who was in charge before?"

sums it all up. What has she been doing all this time? She stated recently that she had suspended collective cabinet responsibility to allow all sides freedom to debate, so does that mean that Davies was on a solo run in the EU negotiations. That he was busy pushing a hard brexit (very different that a no-deal) agenda whilst May was at home on another path?

Its quite ridiculous.

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1021780850470469632

VinLieger

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbaschuk/status/1021869965539008518

It looks like the UK is in for a major fight in the WTO . If you can listen back to James O'Brien on LBC app from about 11.55 . To paraphase Bryce "There are no sharks in lake Geneva but their are plenty in the WTO and they smell blood in the water"

Of course they smell blood in the water the UK is in an insanely weak position and have been broadcasting and displaying this fact to everyone for 2 years, the brexit die hards still cant come to terms with the fact that they will be going into every trade negotiation no matter the country or block in a weak position due to how quickly they need to get multiple deals setup

Zubeneschamali

VinLieger wrote: »

the brexit die hards still cant come to terms with the fact that they will be going into every trade negotiation no matter the country or block in a weak position due to how quickly they need to get multiple deals setup

But here we are not talking about negotiating free trade deals with NZ etc which the Brexiteers pretend will be easy and will greatly increase trade, but about simple WTO membership, which the Brexiteers have always pretended is completely automatic with no negotiating necessary.

VinLieger

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But here we are not talking about negotiating free trade deals with NZ etc which the Brexiteers pretend will be easy and will greatly increase trade, but about simple WTO membership, which the Brexiteers have always pretended is completely automatic with no negotiating necessary.

Ahhe yes the old fallacy the have been erroneously spouting of "we are already a member so we don't have to do anything"

An Ciarraioch

We may have just reached peak Brexit:

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1022044869081083905

murphaph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But here we are not talking about negotiating free trade deals with NZ etc which the Brexiteers pretend will be easy and will greatly increase trade, but about simple WTO membership, which the Brexiteers have always pretended is completely automatic with no negotiating necessary.

This could actually be the thing that kills Brexit. If the path to becoming a stand alone WTO member is lined with obstacles from (especially) non-EU members, then Brexit would have to be paused indefinitely. Somehow.

Inquitus

murphaph wrote: »

This could actually be the thing that kills Brexit. If the path to becoming a stand alone WTO member is lined with obstacles from (especially) non-EU members, then Brexit would have to be paused indefinitely. Somehow.

WTO nations have already said they are not happy with divvying up existing EU quotas on a pro rata basis between the UK and the rest of the EU.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

We may have just reached peak Brexit:

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1022044869081083905

So we'll see Remainers hung? Okay.

lawred2

lol

extreme EU loyalty

what about extreme British loyalty as exhibited up North?

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

lol

extreme EU loyalty

what about extreme British loyalty as exhibited up North?

But that exactly how they see it. They cannot seem to understand how anyone can be loyal to the UK and be in favour of the EU. It is one or the other.

Now most people that I know of can separate the two. Yes we are in the EU, but we are Irish first. Its like the Ryder cup. For those few days we all wave EU flags and cheer for Europe.

Doesn't mean we don't want the Irish/UK or whatever guy to sink the winning put. Or that the next week we won't be cheering on the Irish guy coming up against the Spanish dude.

But many in the UK can't get their head around that.

axer

Inquitus wrote: »

WTO nations have already said they are not happy with divvying up existing EU quotas on a pro rata basis between the UK and the rest of the EU.

I wonder what happens if negotiations go on longer than March?
The UK are members already so I assume it just becomes a case of countries having to lodge complaints that will take some time to be adjudicated on but trade goes ahead on UK published terms until then?

LeinsterDub

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/experts-explanation-trading-wto-rules-means/?__twitter_impression=true


Link to WTO discussion I talked about previous. This is going to be a car crash

Zubeneschamali

axer wrote: »

The UK are members already so I assume it just becomes a case of countries having to lodge complaints that will take some time to be adjudicated on but trade goes ahead on UK published terms until then?

Yes, they will trade on the terms they publish, and everyone else will complain. When those complaints are dealt with the terms may be adjusted.

Trasna1

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So we'll see Remainers hung? Okay.

That guy is actually a loon.

Nody

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/experts-explanation-trading-wto-rules-means/?__twitter_impression=true


Link to WTO discussion I talked about previous. This is going to be a car crash

And we've found the new Brexiteer excuse why UK does badly after Brexit; it's EU wanting to punish UK of course...

"The US, Brazil and New Zealand have already said they don't agree to the UK's plan. A major sticking point for them is the fact that the EU and the UK share a quota system that limits imports of sensitive goods like beef, lamb and sugar. The UK cannot simply replicate these quotas and has proposed to split them with the EU based on historical trade flows."

All of this means that if and when they object and ask for a better deal, Britain will be simultaneously be negotiating a trade deal with the EU and the WTO.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, they will trade on the terms they publish, and everyone else will complain. When those complaints are dealt with the terms may be adjusted.

Actually no; the problem is they got no quotas etc. published for UK as they handed all of that over to the EU when they joined. They now need to agree this with all 163 WTO countries again and New Zeeland, Australia, USA etc. have all lodged issues with UK's proposal already.

Bryce explains: "The UK is currently a WTO member in its own right. The issue is it does not have an independent schedule of concessions for the WTO - that's the menu upon which Britain trades with the rest of the world.

trellheim

Coveney tweeting from London

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1022087122398978048

Good meeting at British Irish Intergovernmental Conference in London with @CharlieFlanagan. Legacy, Security cooperation, East/West Political Structures and Political Instability in NI were all on the agenda. First BIIGC meeting in 11 years.

What's that skippy ? Brexit down the well ? Need to get the paddies round a table ? Lets make up some oul ****e to make them think we care, need to be doing some good optics... anyone got any ideas ? Hand from the back ... BIIGC ? yeah lets go with that

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

Actually no; the problem is they got no quotas etc. published for UK as they handed all of that over to the EU when they joined. They now need to agree this with all 163 WTO countries again and New Zeeland, Australia, USA etc. have all lodged issues with UK's proposal already.

Actually yes; they need to agree, but they do not need to agree before brexit day. They will begin trading on the terms they publish, everyone will object, and when it is all thrashed out the terms will be changed to the new agreed terms.

Trasna1

trellheim wrote: »

Coveney tweeting from London

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1022087122398978048




What's that skippy ? Brexit down the well ? Need to get the paddies round a table ? Lets make up some oul ****e to make them think we care, need to be doing some good optics... anyone got any ideas ? Hand from the back ... BIIGC ? yeah lets go with that

The BIIGC is an institution set out in the GFA. The Irish government were pushing for it, DUP resisting it.

I don't think it was necessarily for the photo op.

PopePalpatine

lawred2 wrote: »

lol

extreme EU loyalty

I think it's a healthy reminder not to undercook one's gammon.

trellheim

I agree with Guy Verhofstadt here , chuckle. The hardliners have obviously been told to up the rhetoric so as to soften the EU cough

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1022115246062882817


PS : Bannermans a twit.

EdgeCase

Just when you think it's at peak ridiculousness, it seems to just get worse and worse. I think the UK s a lost cause at this stage. They're utterly determined to go down this path of economic self destruction and there's really no way of arguing based on pragmatism and logic.

De Gaulle was right. They should never have been let into the EEC in the first place.

lawred2

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just when you think it's at peak ridiculousness, it seems to just get worse and worse. I think the UK s a lost cause at this stage. They're utterly determined to go down this path of economic self destruction and there's really no way of arguing based on pragmatism and logic.

De Gaulle was right. They should never have been let into the EEC in the first place.

And in their madness they are doing so much damage to diplomatic relations with nations that they are going to need on their side post Brexit

Leroy42

Could someone explain the WTO/UK issue to me? So UK are a member, but are currently in the EU grouping. When they leave the EU, they don't have the agreements but want to maintain the "menu" as if they were a member of the EU.

NZ, Brazil etc are saying, (or I am summising that they are saying) that they only agreed that Menu with the EU because of the size of the EU and they want a better deal with the smaller UK?

But I thought that WTO rules were akin to the baseline. That it covered all countries the same and without a formal agreement (such as the EU, or Canada/EU deal) it reverts to WTO rules.

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

Could someone explain the WTO/UK issue to me? So UK are a member, but are currently in the EU grouping. When they leave the EU, they don't have the agreements but want to maintain the "menu" as if they were a member of the EU.

NZ, Brazil etc are saying, (or I am summising that they are saying) that they only agreed that Menu with the EU because of the size of the EU and they want a better deal with the smaller UK?

But I thought that WTO rules were akin to the baseline. That it covered all countries the same and without a formal agreement (such as the EU, or Canada/EU deal) it reverts to WTO rules.

UK essentially want to maintain the same tariff and quota levels with NZ, Canada etc after Brexit, doing this while detaching their "share" of the EU market. The rest of the world, unsurprisingly, see the new circumstances as an opportunity to push for lower tariffs and higher quotas in the UK market, lowering the competitiveness and profitability of British producers, particularly in the agri-sector. Of course, the very problem with the backstop would then be how to prevent NZ lamb, or Canadian apples flooding Irish stores across an open border.

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

Could someone explain the WTO/UK issue to me? So UK are a member, but are currently in the EU grouping. When they leave the EU, they don't have the agreements but want to maintain the "menu" as if they were a member of the EU.

NZ, Brazil etc are saying, (or I am summising that they are saying) that they only agreed that Menu with the EU because of the size of the EU and they want a better deal with the smaller UK?

But I thought that WTO rules were akin to the baseline. That it covered all countries the same and without a formal agreement (such as the EU, or Canada/EU deal) it reverts to WTO rules.

There are quotas for imports.
Currently the UK and EU share a (set of) quota(s).
For example let say that is 1,000,000 tons of X.
On breaking up, the EU and UK want to divide up that 1,000,000 tons quota into e.g. 900,000 and 100,000 based on historical consumption patterns. Other countries quite rightly point out that one quota of 100k and one of 900k is not as good as a total quota of 1,000k: you now have 2 hurdles rather than one and can't transfer if you hit a quota cap.

I'm afraid I don't understand the circumstances for what or for which foreign exporters quotas are valid.

Zubeneschamali

Hilariously, the UK proposal to the WTO is simply a chunk out of the existing EU one - and it is all still denominated in Euros. They didn't even convert to Sterling!

e.g. Commitments: The UK’s AMS amount is bound in Schedule XIX-United Kingdom at 5,914.1 million Euros.


http://src.bna.com/AAZ

or in this one:

0102 29 10 ---- Of a weight not exceeding 80 kg 10.2 + 93.1 €/100 kg/net 10.2 + 93.1 €/100 kg/net SSG

http://src.bna.com/AA1

Anita Blow

The EU in its submission to the WTO also acknowledged that the EU market will be smaller after brexit and so as a concession it will be adjusting it's tariffs and quotas to account for that (IE- it would be conceding to more favourable trade terms).

The UK on the other hand made only technical adjustments in their submission and thought they could essentially maintain their current tariffs and quotas they enjoy as a member of the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

The fact that the UK is actively preparing to stockpile "adequate food" along with medicines, blood etc.

This is one of the wealthiest nations in the world, during the longest period of peacetime in their history, and this is where they are heading to? And my their own decision?

And the fact that you still have a large amount of people demanding that Brexit be delivered no matter what just makes it even more insane.

Adequate food. Seriously. That's where political discourse is in this country at the moment whereby a government can say it is prepping to ensure a food supply and the zealots at the helm both in the government and the media stay completely and utterly silent to say nothing of the current shambles that is the opposition.

First, Farage denied saying that leaving the EU would bring benefits, then Rees-Mogg says we have to wait 50 years before knowing the consequences and now there's the implication that we might not be able to feed ourselves.

I was in Cuba earlier this year and they never had to worry about feeding themselves. Utterly ridiculous.

rosser44

lawred2 wrote: »

And in their madness they are doing so much damage to diplomatic relations with nations that they are going to need on their side post Brexit

For a lot of brexiteers this is a feature, not a bug.