Brexit discussion thread IV

brickster69

WTO quotas are not a problem in effect. It is not a commitment to purchase a set amount, just that they can if they want. If you look at Beef for example -
The wholesale price for Beef in South America is 40% less than in Europe. That is without tariffs. 
The UK only produces 60% so has to import the other 40% to sustain demand. When you look at things like ready meals eg. Lasagne, it all comes from European suppliers which is mostly already made. But it does give advantages for UK firms to import Beef and make their own Lasagne ready meals for domestic use and for export to non EU countries.
The question is, in these days of big corporations will the 60% homegrown product be protected, profit margins squeezed or slowly evaporate over time ?

McGiver

ambro25 wrote: »

l
Where the F are the 48% plus the ( expectedly non-trivial) contingent amongst the 52% who wanted an ‘out but not that far out’ outcome? Still nowhere to be seen.

In fairness, I think it's apathy due to a) their brutal political class who don't give a damn in general and b) FPTP, both of which mean that people's voice has no value and it's really difficult to achieve any real change.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Cuba had serious food shortages after collapse of USSR. bad example...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Period#Food_rationing

Well maybe it's a good example of what Britain can expect after it's crash out of the EU

Water John

Brick, on the beef, one might need to look up the hormones fed and injected into the SA animals. It really is a different product. If the people of the UK are willing to eat it, fine.

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, Bannon's eurosceptic project has been firmly rejected by Poland's Law and Justice party, who are hardly enthusiastic Europhiles themselves:

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1022156047614730242

BlitzKrieg

well thats kinda the rub with nationalist movements, they dont tend to work well in an internationalist alliance. We saw the same with the libertas fiasco what 10 years ago?

I feel old suddenly.

ancapailldorcha

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

well thats kinda the rub with nationalist movements, they dont tend to work well in an internationalist alliance. We saw the same with the libertas fiasco what 10 years ago?

I feel old suddenly.

I don't think it's this. Bannon was more than happy to support the likes of LePen and Orban. However, Poland has its own history with Russia. Hopping into bed with the likes of Bannon would be seen as a deep betrayal of this history and would be a fatal blow to a party whose appeal is protecting Polish values and heritage.

ancapailldorcha

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I think it's a healthy reminder not to undercook one's gammon.

trellheim wrote: »

PS : Bannermans a twit.

Mod: Serious discussion only, please. No more name calling or one liners.

An Ciarraioch

Bonus points for getting the poetic reference:

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1022160801052934150/photo/1

An Ciarraioch

It appears the Greens' proposal for Ireland to be a single European constituency has been ruled out, which presumably also means that NI residents will definitely lose the right to vote for MEPs, as had been debated earlier in the year.

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1022043412575514625

Inquitus

God I just read a bit of the Express, if they crash out of the EU and trade on WTO terms, austerity will be ended by an 80bn a year boost, and the average household will be 8% better off and the poorest 15% better off. How you can get away with publishing such barefaced lies, I have no idea. This is the only time I have had the misfortune to look at the Express in a long while....

The proposal for a bold new World Trade Deal would, according to leading economic experts, end austerity with a boost of £80 billion a year and guarantee that Britain is free of Brussels rule.

According to EFT calculations, the effects on prices and wages mean that average household will gain around eight per cent, while the poorest household will be 15 per cent better off.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/992694/brexit-news-world-trade-deal-uk-eu-chequers-white-paper

McGiver

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Bannon's eurosceptic project has been firmly rejected by Poland's Law and Justice party, who are hardly enthusiastic Europhiles themselves:

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1022156047614730242

Good news. But PiS are Europhiles in name only as long as the EU pays and as long as they can export millions of people to EEA. Once they become a net contributors to the EU funds, I wouldn't bet on them.

LuckyLloyd

Inquitus wrote: »

God I just read a bit of the Express, if they crash out of the EU and trade on WTO terms, austerity will be ended by an 80bn a year boost, and the average household will be 8% better off and the poorest 15% better off. How you can get away with publishing such barefaced lies, I have no idea. This is the only time I have had the misfortune to look at the Express in a long while....





https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/992694/brexit-news-world-trade-deal-uk-eu-chequers-white-paper

Lie on page one, retract on page 16

However in this case, the real liars are the biased think tank peddling this fiction.

Phoebas

Inquitus wrote: »

This is the only time I have had the misfortune to look at the Express in a long while...

You're missing out.
The Express is a great read. You can leave the real world behind for a little while and escape into an alternative universe where everything works differently.

It must be great to be a journalist there, unconstrained by facts or the truth. But the best job is the guy who writes the headlines. The basic rule is that two words need to be bolded, but it doesn't matter which two.

An Ciarraioch

From an EU-US trade war to a trade agreement?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/trump-juncker-reach-deal-to-ease-trade-tensions-dow-jones-says-jk1jtfs8

More detail now:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jul/25/trump-juncker-trade-talks-tariffs-cars-business-live?page=with:block-5b58e1a1e4b0f612016702e0#block-5b58e1a1e4b0f612016702e0

Christy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

From an EU-US trade war to a trade agreement?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/trump-juncker-reach-deal-to-ease-trade-tensions-dow-jones-says-jk1jtfs8

Early stages of talks but the social aid package to farmers shows that the administration is feeling the pinch. Barriers to trade will remain up, no matter what Trump says due to below quality American produce but 0% tariffs into the US would be a big deal. Especially for Ireland.

Obviously early days and who knows what Trump will do tomorrow.

Larbre34

A comprehensive EU US deal (if it appears) is a massive setback to the UK Brexit model for success, especially with the EU having wrapped up the Japan deal recently. At the same time, we hear some of the brexiteer banking execs insisting the City of London will remain vital 'just cos'. Super strategy.

If I was in big business in the UK, or indeed the employee of a firm with global export scope, my blood would be running cold about now.

Water John

BBC News chasing Aaron Banks source of funds. Where did the money for the Leave Campaign come from?

Leroy42

Act of aggression? Jebus

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6857039/hostile-eu-uk-daniel-hannan-opinion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

Act of aggression? Jebus

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6857039/hostile-eu-uk-daniel-hannan-opinion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Well they look to be trying to outclass the others in the delusional idiot championships.

Water John

ITV News showing Juncker in the WH, then ask Liam Fox about him not being in the WH. Made him look like a two bit salesman.
Feeling both BBC and ITV are getting more bolshie with the Brexiteers.

Capt'n Midnight

More on the economics of NI.
At partition 80% of the industrial output on this island came from just three Northern counties. Today the Republic has ten times the output of the North.
research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure
https://senatormarkdaly.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure.pdf


Compared to the rest of the UK, NI gets more spending on ( £ per capita pa)
Public order and safety 300
Agriculture, fisheries and forestry 208
Housing and community amenities 267
Social protection 762
Some of this attracts more EU funds than the UK is likely to match.

NI contributes 2.5% of the UK economy. This is why the UK can subsidise it. This is why the EU can offer special exemptions, but also why rest of the UK can't piggy back the entire country into this exception.


Another thought, lots of state land in NI, things like military bases and surplus PSNI stations could sold off when the NI economy starts to grow again as part of the dividend of reunification. Not much but it eats into the costs.

Hurrache

After being turned down in Poland, Boris is reportedly meeting up with Bannon

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1022214163786084352?s=19

Charles Babbage

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Another thought, lots of state land in NI, things like military bases and surplus PSNI stations could sold off when the NI economy starts to grow again as part of the dividend of reunification. Not much but it eats into the costs.

Many of these sites have already been sold off.

But the 2.5% of UK government property in central London should raise a bit.

Peregrinus

McGiver wrote: »

Good news. But PiS are Europhiles in name only as long as the EU pays and as long as they can export millions of people to EEA. Once they become a net contributors to the EU funds, I wouldn't bet on them.

Well, it's a little bit more that that. PiS also see Poland's membership of the EU as a valuable counterweight to Russian influence.

Besides, all you're really saying here is that PiS values EU membership for the benefits it confers on Poland. Well, duh. You worry about what happens when Poland becomes a net contributor but, realistically, this is not going to happen for a long time. And the other benefit that you reckon PiS appreciates, free movement, is of course permanent.

Peregrinus

Phoebas wrote: »

You're missing out.
The Express is a great read. You can leave the real world behind for a little while and escape into an alternative universe where everything works differently.

. . . and everyone is always angry.

Kermit.de.frog

Bloomberg reporting that the Irish sea border is on the table as the backstop option and that Northern Ireland might have to accept EU rules and diverge from UK.

U.K. Weighs Contentious Brexit Plan for Irish Border


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/u-k-is-said-to-weigh-contentious-brexit-plan-for-irish-border

LuckyLloyd

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bloomberg reporting that the Irish sea border is on the table as the backstop option and that Northern Ireland might have to accept EU rules and diverge from UK.

U.K. Weighs Contentious Brexit Plan for Irish Border


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/u-k-is-said-to-weigh-contentious-brexit-plan-for-irish-border

Bloomberg reported after Chequers that Barnier was being pressured by EU leaders into lending it a sympathetic ear. I don’t think they’ve been great on Brexit recently

Peregrinus

I think Bloomberg was correct - the UK did want the EU not to be too instantly dismissive of the Chequers proposals, since they needed some time to try to get buy-in domestically. And Barnier, etc, responded to that by not saying that, as a final position, Chequers wouldn't fly (which it wouldn't) and instead welcoming it as a move forward by the UK, signalling a willingness to get real, etc, but implicitly treating Chequers as a point from which to negotiation, rather than as a bottom line beyond which there could be no negotiation.

Bloomberg, in my experience, has generally been pretty good in its Brexit reporting.

Rhineshark

If we do take on NI as part of the CUSM, this us going to mean an Irish Sea border regarding Europe as well, isn't it?

We are not going to be able to prevent UK goods getting into RoI, which indicates to me that all-island exports are going to need to be checked.

Still better than the alternative, but I don't see a way around that.