Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

As the commentator Simon Usherwood suggests, highly unlikely that the EU will block a deal being reached:

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1022419231391076352

Trasna1

CelticRambler wrote: »

The biggest danger for UK producer-suppliers is that Ireland doesn't need to be able to rapidly switch to continental sources. Irish retailers can make a decision right now to make the change, without taking account of any Brexiteer ranting and raving; and once they've changed, they'll need a very good reason to return to the UK - especially if the UK continues on its current rudderless course.



That said, when I read comments here and elsewhere about how Ireland is going to be hard hit "no matter what" it dismays me. Where has all the entrepreneurship in Ireland gone? Were I in business in Ireland, I would already have scaled back my exposure to the UK market in favour of EU opportunities. I suspended a previous project in the south-east because my potential customer base was too obsessed with London; with or without a hard Brexit, the whole Brexit saga has made my project look viable once again.

How does a cheddar producer scale back exposure to the UK since no one else eats it?

Moving into new markets takes time, two years isn't enough. Ireland will lose 4% of GDP over this UK folly, I wonder what the effect will be on GNI* double perhaps?

EdgeCase

Trasna1 wrote: »

How does a cheddar producer scale back exposure to the UK since no one else eats it?

Moving into new markets takes time, two years isn't enough. Ireland will lose 4% of GDP over this UK folly, I wonder what the effect will be on GNI* double perhaps?

Like this:

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/jarlsberg-expands-its-production-of-worldrenowned-cheese-in-cork-36397128.html

There are other cheeses you can produce that have broader appeal.

LaChatteGitane

Trasna1 wrote: »

How does a cheddar producer scale back exposure to the UK since no one else eats it?

Moving into new markets takes time, two years isn't enough. Ireland will lose 4% of GDP over this UK folly, I wonder what the effect will be on GNI* double perhaps?

You would be surprised. People on/of the continent go crazy for a mature cheddar, in my experience.
I know in some supermarkets in Belgium, Dubliner has been available for 20 years.
We always serve family and friends from Europe mature cheddar and there is never anyone that doesn't rave about it. "Better than parmesan !"

Yes, it does take marketing, but what has Ireland been waiting for ? You have such great produce on this island, get your arse into gear !
Btw, Irish beef is another very favoured product in my home country, still have to find Irish lamb though.

EdgeCase

Good cheddar is a really nice cheese and quite a sophisticated flavour. The branding was destroyed by cheap, orange, industrial junk sold as cheddar for decades.

Irish cheese companies should really be trying to grow their own brands like Dubliner but avoiding using generic terms like cheddar.

breatheme

Ireland can do a lot to expand its market into the continent. Hopefully there are capable people and companies who will figure out ways to do so.

kowtow

EdgeCase wrote: »

Good cheddar is a really nice cheese and quite a sophisticated flavour. The branding was destroyed by cheap, orange, industrial junk sold as cheddar for decades.

Irish cheese companies should really be trying to grow their own brands like Dubliner but avoiding using generic terms like cheddar.

Some would say that Dubliner is a long way from good cheddar!

megaten

EdgeCase wrote: »

Like this:

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/jarlsberg-expands-its-production-of-worldrenowned-cheese-in-cork-36397128.html

There are other cheeses you can produce that have broader appeal.

The thing is I'm pretty sure you can't just switch a factory to making a different type of cheese, you have to build a new facility.

LaChatteGitane

kowtow wrote: »

Some would say that Dubliner is a long way from good cheddar!

I bet they prefer the weak willed flavourless 'melting' cheddar

jm08

Trasna1 wrote: »

How does a cheddar producer scale back exposure to the UK since no one else eats it?

Moving into new markets takes time, two years isn't enough. Ireland will lose 4% of GDP over this UK folly, I wonder what the effect will be on GNI* double perhaps?

If the UK doesn't get its cheddar from Ireland, who is it going to get it from who won't have the same WTO tariffs as Ireland/EU has?

EdgeCase

megaten wrote: »

The thing is I'm pretty sure you can't just switch a factory to making a different type of cheese, you have to build a new facility.

You don’t actually. It’s not that complicated as a product and the raw ingredient is milk.

The processes are slightly different and the fermentation stages are different but the fundamentals are very similar for many cheeses.

Mostly you can make the modifications fairly cost effectively. There are differences, but they’re not a case of an entirely different plant.

It’s more akin to the way you don’t need an entirely different oven to make sponge cake and fruit cake.

The big scale investment would be in staff with specialist skills and experience, physical facilities for handling dairy products - refrigeration, milk processing packaging etc. and most fundamental : access to good quality milk via established supply chain.

I’m not saying it’s a matter of just pressing “make different cheese” but it can be done.

Zubeneschamali

jm08 wrote: »

If the UK doesn't get its cheddar from Ireland, who is it going to get it from

"Brexit may mean dairy products become luxury items, food firm warns"

Phonehead

Trasna1 wrote: »

How does a cheddar producer scale back exposure to the UK since no one else eats it?

Moving into new markets takes time, two years isn't enough. Ireland will lose 4% of GDP over this UK folly, I wonder what the effect will be on GNI* double perhaps?

Wait! what now? Here in Canada every big store has an aisle dedicated to Cheddar.

EdgeCase

Interesting actually, Ireland is (by quite a considerable margin) the UK’s largest destination for food exports:

https://www.fdf.org.uk/publicgeneral/FDF-exports-h1-2017.pdf

pinksoir

Trasna1 wrote: »

How does a cheddar producer scale back exposure to the UK since no one else eats it?

Moving into new markets takes time, two years isn't enough. Ireland will lose 4% of GDP over this UK folly, I wonder what the effect will be on GNI* double perhaps?

When I lived in Barcelona, every supermarket sold cheddar. It's very popular. You can buy a massive variety of cheese on the continent, from Dutch to French to Spanish to Irish.

Here in Berlin I've found cheddar everywhere too. Lots of British cheddar with some Irish too. Just replace that with Irish cheddar when they leave.

Irish produce is very highly regarded and with a push I could see it replacing all the British produce you see in supermarkets on the continent. I actually think it'll be a massive upshot for Irish producers.

jm08

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

"Brexit may mean dairy products become luxury items, food firm warns"

Cheddar isn't really a luxury item.



One thing we have going for us anyway is that Ornua (Irish Dairy Board) owns a factory in Staffordshire that has 40% of the UK hard cheese market.


https://www.rte.ie/eile/2018/0620/972001-pleas-for-irish-cheese-as-a-hard-brexit-looms/

EdgeCase

jm08 wrote: »

Cheddar isn't really a luxury item.



One thing we have going for us anyway is that Ornua (Irish Dairy Board) owns a factory in Staffordshire that has 40% of the UK hard cheese market.


https://www.rte.ie/eile/2018/0620/972001-pleas-for-irish-cheese-as-a-hard-brexit-looms/

The way things are headed over there, toilet paper could end up being a luxury item. It’s the most economically irresponsible thing that I’ve ever seen a developed country do and all for what?

blanch152

Trasna1 wrote: »

Indeed it does. But if I were working in an industry like motors in Europe, my blood would be running cold at the thought of these deals rather than applauding them.

It's not that they can't be a good thing - it's the football team like cheering and jeering from some posters that I'm getting at. A win for your team is not a win for everyone on your team - a point lost on some here.

For Ireland, trade deals are good. We are a small open economy reliant on free trade. For the same reason that Brexit is bad, EU trade deals with Japan are good.

Zubeneschamali

jm08 wrote: »

Cheddar isn't really a luxury item.

No, not now. The point is that any imported food may be a luxury item for a while after Brexit.

jm08

pinksoir wrote: »

When I lived in Barcelona, every supermarket sold cheddar. It's very popular. You can buy a massive variety of cheese on the continent, from Dutch to French to Spanish to Irish.

Here in Berlin I've found cheddar everywhere too. Lots of British cheddar with some Irish too. Just replace that with Irish cheddar when they leave.

Irish produce is very highly regarded and with a push I could see it replacing all the British produce you see in supermarkets on the continent. I actually think it'll be a massive upshot for Irish producers.

I'm inclined to agree. Irish lamb could replace Welsh lamb (highly rated) in the EU as well.

murphaph

Trasna1 wrote: »

How does a cheddar producer scale back exposure to the UK since no one else eats it?

Moving into new markets takes time, two years isn't enough. Ireland will lose 4% of GDP over this UK folly, I wonder what the effect will be on GNI* double perhaps?

You could not buy cheddar in Germany when I moved here 10 years ago. Now every supermarket sells it. Markets can be developed. The Irish didn't eat much pasta when I was a child. We eat loads now.

Trasna1

blanch152 wrote: »

For Ireland, trade deals are good. We are a small open economy reliant on free trade. For the same reason that Brexit is bad, EU trade deals with Japan are good.

It depends on the deal. So far so good to be fair, but up until recently the EU hasn't attempted to negotiate a wide ranging FTA with a bloc/country of similar power or size.

murphaph

LaChatteGitane wrote: »

You might be surprised. People on/of the continent go crazy for a mature cheddar, in my experience.
I know in some supermarkets in Belgium, Dubliner has been available for 20 years.
We always serve family and friends from Europe mature cheddar and there is never anyone that doesn't rave about it. "Better than parmesan !"

Yes, it does take marketing, but what has Ireland been waiting for ? You have such great produce on this island, get your arse into gear !
Btw, Irish beef is another very favoured product in my home country, still have to find Irish lamb though.

In my local supermarket here in Germany the premium beef and lamb is Irish and clearly marketed as such.

Water John

I think the Ornua plant in Staffordshire is a packaging plant. 20 kg blocks from Dairygold are exported there, wholesale. Cut and packaged as Pilgrims Choice, I think.
I agree the cheddar market has expanded. Not sure at all of using cheddar plant to produce other cheeses. Might make other hard cheese but not soft or semi.

We really need to go to GMO free status for the country on all inputs to agriculture.

pinksoir

jm08 wrote: »

I'm inclined to agree. Irish lamb could replace Welsh lamb (highly rated) in the EU as well.

Absolutely. The lamb producers need to up their game I think. This is anecdotal, but the Canadians I know wish Irish lamb was available there (given that they've tried it and are aware of it's quality). It's all NZ lamb that they get, I think. I've not seen any Irish lamb here in Germany either. Irish lamb really is grade A produce and should be available everywhere IMO.

murphaph

pinksoir wrote: »

Absolutely. The lamb producers need to up their game I think. This is anecdotal, but the Canadians I know wish Irish lamb was available there (given that they've tried it and are aware of it's quality). It's all NZ lamb that they get, I think. I've not seen any Irish lamb here in Germany either. Irish lamb really is grade A produce and should be available everywhere IMO.

My local Rewe sells it as a premium product.

EdgeCase

murphaph wrote: »

In my local supermarket here in Germany the premium beef and lamb is Irish and clearly marketed as such.

It’s the same in Belgium. Irish beef is sold at a significant premium.

For example:

https://www.delhaize.be/fr-be/shop/Viande-et-poisson/Viande-fraiche/Boeuf/Entrecote-Irlande-Boeuf/p/F2015061700542110000

The one odd thing is they sell “Celtic” lamb at Delhaize, which is either Irish or British ...

https://www.delhaize.be/fr-be/shop/Viande-et-poisson/Viande-fraiche/Agneau/Couronne-dagneau-7C-Celtic/p/F2011020200574400000

An Ciarraioch

Barnier-Raab press conference due in 15 minutes, whether there will be anything of note to report remains to be seen.

Nody

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier-Raab press conference due in 15 minutes, whether there will be anything of note to report remains to be seen.

"We've made great progress but we still have different views on some topics; we continue negotiation in a positive spirit and will do all we can to come to a deal before the deadline. We also stress that the work done for a no deal scenario is not intended as a threat but simply done as a precaution which we don't expect will need to be used." Now Centuple the word count and you got the press conference script done.

OMD

EdgeCase wrote: »

It’s the same in Belgium. Irish beef is sold at a significant premium.

For example:

https://www.delhaize.be/fr-be/shop/Viande-et-poisson/Viande-fraiche/Boeuf/Entrecote-Irlande-Boeuf/p/F2015061700542110000

That is the problem though. Irish beef costs far more than other beef.

Anyway the issue is not simply cheese or beef. Changing markets from a very close English speaking one to a less accessible one speaking a different language is difficult. Not necessarily so for big companies like Kerry Group but for smaller enterprises it certainly is. Not that it cannot be done but can be very difficult.

Also how will goods get to Europe? Through UK - If no deal then no chance (without significant costs). Main way then will be ferry through France with land/rail route after that, all increasing the cost of the Irish product.