Brexit discussion thread IV

listermint

OMD wrote: »

That is the problem though. Irish beef costs far more than other beef.

Anyway the issue is not simply cheese or beef. Changing markets from a very close English speaking one to a less accessible one speaking a different language is difficult. Not necessarily so for big companies like Kerry Group but for smaller enterprises it certainly is. Not that it cannot be done but can be very difficult.

Also how will goods get to Europe? Through UK - If no deal then no chance (without significant costs). Main way then will be ferry through France with land/rail route after that, all increasing the cost of the Irish product.

You do know we have to ferry to the UK... right?

OMD

listermint wrote: »

You do know we have to ferry to the UK... right?

You do know the journey to UK is shorter? 2 hours compared to a whole day?
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

"It is impossible to overstate the importance of the British transit route: Some 80 percent of the Irish road freight that reaches mainland Europe passes through the U.K.

Dublin-Rotherdam through UK or France. Which do you think is faster?

An Ciarraioch

So, Raab agrees that a backstop is required, but then undermines that by reverting to the notion of a time-limited arrangement.

Akrasia

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

"Brexit may mean dairy products become luxury items, food firm warns"

This only happens if the UK imposes checks on EU goods entering the UK

If they do what JRM wants to do, and throws their border open to EU imports they'll have as much butter as they can get their hands on as exporters from the EU fill the gap from UK food processors struggling to get imported raw materials to make their own produce.

Akrasia

OMD wrote: »

You do know the journey to UK is shorter? 2 hours compared to a whole day?
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/


Dublin-Rotherdam through UK or France. Which do you think is faster?

For irish exports to the EU, it's handy for freight operators to go through the UK because they can pick up and deliver along the way, but if the UK was no longer part of the single market, we would just have direct freight to the continent. This is not necessarly any slower to their EU destination because you avoid all the driving across the UK and all the logistics stops by the freight operators along that route.

Fewer, higher capacity ferries or cargo ships between Ireland and France, NL, or even Spain could deliver irish exports to their EU markets within a similar timescale compared with the UK route

The big difference will be imports. For some distributors they might consider Ireland to be too small of a market to bother sending their goods across the channel while they could justify it as part of a UK/ROI network.

OMD

Akrasia wrote: »

For irish exports to the EU, it's handy for freight operators to go through the UK because they can pick up and deliver along the way, but if the UK was no longer part of the single market, we would just have direct freight to the continent. This is not necessarly any slower to their EU destination because you avoid all the driving across the UK and all the logistics stops by the freight operators along that route.

Fewer, higher capacity ferries or cargo ships between Ireland and France, NL, or even Spain could deliver irish exports to their EU markets within a similar timescale compared with the UK route

The big difference will be imports. For some distributors they might consider Ireland to be too small of a market to bother sending their goods across the channel while they could justify it as part of a UK/ROI network.

Perhaps you should read the article I attached. If it is faster at the moment using ferry to France I would assume the hauliers are already doing that. At the moment though 80% of Irish haulage to mainland Europe goes through UK. Travelling by road/rail is faster and cheaper than travelling by water.

Traveling directly from Ireland to Cherbourg, in France, takes roughly twice as long as the U.K. route. The direct ferry route to Belgium’s Zeebrugge takes nearly three times as long. Alternative direct routes from Ireland to the U.K. do exist, such as Dublin to Liverpool; Rosslare to Pembroke, in Wales; or Rosslare to Fishguard, which is also in Wales.

“We’re geographically displaced in relation to mainland Europe,” said Verona Murphy, president of the Irish Road Haulage Association. “Everything that will happen through Brexit is going to affect us, hard or soft. We’re seeing signs of it already.”

Murphy’s difficulties are particularly acute because she works with the ultra-sensitive food business. Her haulage company Drumur Transport shifts refrigerated Irish beef from abattoirs in County Meath, near Dublin, across the U.K. and France to markets in northern Italy twice a week. It then brings back seasonal fruit such as kiwi and peaches.

Some 50 percent of Ireland’s hauliers serve the Continent, and 30 percent of them carry refrigerated goods, where every hour counts. In addition to customs checks, transiting a non-EU country could entail veterinary controls for food products.

Food distribution networks are timed like clockwork too. Irish exporters will often truck goods destined for sale in far-flung supermarkets within just a few days. Delays of just four to five hours — which could mean missed ferries, mandated rest times for truckers and spoiled goods — could prove massively disruptive.

trellheim

European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier rejected the central part of the U.K.’s proposal for a trade deal, in a blow to hopes of reaching an agreement by October. The pound pared gains.

Prime Minister Theresa May has proposed a model under which the U.K. would collect the EU’s tariffs on goods entering the country -- as part of her plan to avoid the need for customs checks at the border. But Barnier said this would never be acceptable.

“The EU cannot -- and the EU will not -- delegate the application of its customs policy and rules, VAT and excise duty collections to a non-member who would not be subject to the EU’s governance structures,” Barnier told reporters during a joint news conference with Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab in Brussels on Thursday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-26/eu-s-barnier-rejects-key-part-of-u-k-s-brexit-trade-plan

< insert here we go pic >

Rhineshark

Just on the chedder note, the machines used for making it are very large, very expensive and do literally nothing else. Cheddar presses make chedder and that's it. It's a surprisingly specialised process.

I know Germany has gotten interested in chedder though and our dairy markets are pushing onto the continent pretty successfully. We also currently have a huge market for baby formula that the UK has shot themselves in the foot for as both large buyers (China and Africa) insist on EU milk only.

The issue is going to be - depending what happens with NI which seems to be anyone's guess at the moment - secure year-round milk supply* and getting it to RoI processing plants. All the cross-border issues will do an absolute number on our dairy industry if a hard border goes up.

*RoI And NI essentially share a milk supply. Can't remember the direction but one country supplies year-round, the other has big milking season in spring and a smaller one in autumn. Between us, we balance out the supply. I -think- we have the two peak seasons and NI is year round but it might be the other way around.

LuckyLloyd

trellheim wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-26/eu-s-barnier-rejects-key-part-of-u-k-s-brexit-trade-plan

< insert here we go pic >

Well that's a categorical outright rejection of Chequers so.

trellheim

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Well that's a categorical outright rejection of Chequers so.

yes indeed that was a central part of it

https://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/nothing_to_see_here_naked_gun.gif

so time for Plan B ( do they have one ? )

EdgeCase

Akrasia wrote: »

For irish exports to the EU, it's handy for freight operators to go through the UK because they can pick up and deliver along the way, but if the UK was no longer part of the single market, we would just have direct freight to the continent. This is not necessarly any slower to their EU destination because you avoid all the driving across the UK and all the logistics stops by the freight operators along that route.

Fewer, higher capacity ferries or cargo ships between Ireland and France, NL, or even Spain could deliver irish exports to their EU markets within a similar timescale compared with the UK route

The big difference will be imports. For some distributors they might consider Ireland to be too small of a market to bother sending their goods across the channel while they could justify it as part of a UK/ROI network.

Ireland’s not that small a market and it has considerable spending power. It’s comparable to one of the major Nordic countries in that regard.

We might actually end up with a broader diversity of products and retailers as we won’t be simply considered as an extra U.K. region.

There are swings and roundabouts to everything.

I mean there are international retailers making a decent living in and taking Iceland seriously and it has a population 200,000 short of County Cork.

Logistics will just adapt. Where there’s a will, there’s a way and where there’s money to be spent there’s someone willing to reach out to it.

I mean even look at say Harvey Norman. An Australian retailer making a big success of being in Ireland without any U.K. linkages to its business.

Water John

Rhine, NI have more year round supplies, many herds kept indoors. ROI have drifted to almost total spring calving. But then cheddar plants can close for 2/3 months.
Hard border would be a real pain for Lakeland Coop
The liquid milk trade also a nightmare, Strathroy especially.

Capt'n Midnight

murphaph wrote: »

Yep. Shipping finished cars means shipping a lot of air. Shipping some components is much more efficient. Japanese workers aren't cheaper than European ones.

Shipping air in big boats designed to do it is cheap.

A PCTC can carry up to 8,500 vehicles on 14 decks.

And anyone buying a BMW, or Merc isn't going to worry about a few quid either way. On the other hand a 10% tariff on entry level cars imported from the UK ...

listermint

OMD wrote: »

Perhaps you should read the article I attached. If it is faster at the moment using ferry to France I would assume the hauliers are already doing that. At the moment though 80% of Irish haulage to mainland Europe goes through UK. Travelling by road/rail is faster and cheaper than travelling by water.

I don't think anyone disputes that most hauliers go through the UK . It's amusing your seem to think anyone believes otherwise.

What you've failed to take account of is that routes are and more will open up from south ports. Which frankly is great because it will bring jobs to those regions.

The time difference , hauliers will adapt as will the supply chain timing.
None of this is hugely problematic. If the UK is cut out then it's cut out.

Leroy42

So apart from Barnier rejected the split of services from goods. Rejecting the idea of the UK collecting tariffs and VAT on behalf of the EU.

Apart from that, it seems the White Paper is a step forward!

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

For irish exports to the EU, it's handy for freight operators to go through the UK because they can pick up and deliver along the way, but if the UK was no longer part of the single market, we would just have direct freight to the continent. This is not necessarly any slower to their EU destination because you avoid all the driving across the UK and all the logistics stops by the freight operators along that route.

Fewer, higher capacity ferries or cargo ships between Ireland and France, NL, or even Spain could deliver irish exports to their EU markets within a similar timescale compared with the UK route

There's loads of BIG new ferries serving Ireland, and more under construction.


A lot of the freight traffic from the continent to Ireland isn't accompanied by drivers. Irish driver drops container or trailer to the ferry, UK driver takes to the next ferry and a continental driver takes it the rest of the way.

After a Hard Brexit the only difference would be big blue TIR stickers on the through traffic. ... and delays

Water John

Well it's up the the UK if it views the White Paper as a discussion document.

trellheim

A lot of the freight traffic from the continent to Ireland isn't accompanied by drivers. Irish driver drops container or trailer to the ferry, UK driver takes to the next ferry and a continental driver takes it the rest of the way.

After a Hard Brexit the only difference would be big blue TIR stickers on the through traffic. ... and delays

I have always wondered why they dont dump the containers onto a train in Holyhead and a train drops them to the Continent through the Channel tunnel.

First Up

trellheim wrote: »

A lot of the freight traffic from the continent to Ireland isn't accompanied by drivers. Irish driver drops container or trailer to the ferry, UK driver takes to the next ferry and a continental driver takes it the rest of the way.

After a Hard Brexit the only difference would be big blue TIR stickers on the through traffic. ... and delays

I have always wondered why they dont dump the containers onto a train in Holyhead and a train drops them to the Continent through the Channel tunnel.

The train from Holyhead doesn't go to the Channel Tunnel. Heaving containers on and off trains needs sophisticated and expensive equipment.

Professor Moriarty

What is incalculable is how much goodwill and reputation the UK, such as they had, has lost because of Brexit. Even if they were to have an immediate volte face and decide to stay in, the political damage done to their reputation means that they won't be trusted or taken seriously in Brussels. Ditto their economy as businesses across the globe now see Britain as a country in turmoil and about to inflict crippling damage on its ability to trade. Who would choose to invest long term in the UK today? Who would take their government seriously today?

McGiver

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

trellheim wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-26/eu-s-barnier-rejects-key-part-of-u-k-s-brexit-trade-plan

< insert here we go pic >

Well that's a categorical outright rejection of Chequers so.

As expected.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/26/michel-barnier-tears-up-theresa-mays-brexit-customs-proposals

An Ciarraioch

Frank Field is facing suspension by his constituency Labour branch for continually supporting a hard Brexit:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-members-move-to-suspend-brexiteer-mp-frank-field-for-backing-tories-birkenhead-labour-party_uk_5b59b0ebe4b0de86f493f2e3?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly9vbGQucmVkZGl0LmNvbS9yL3VrcG9saXRpY3Mv&guce_referrer_cs=M9u0QNBJANCZ755krXuWww

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Pure fear mongering. As far as I am aware no trade the EU has ever signed has been attribute to a decline in GDP. These deals take years to come live in certain sectors with tariffs declining year on year. Electric cars are coming regardless of trade deals perhaps it will lead to job loses perhaps not. Perhaps AI will perhaps not. But I'd rather have 300 ml extra customers in a declining market

EU has a population of 443m without the UK

But there's also 80m Turks in the Customs Union and there's the EFTA countries that are in the single market.

And the EU has free trade deals from Albania to Ukraine , South Africa to South Korea.

Japan , South Korea and Mexico have more than 300m customers.

LeinsterDub

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

EU has a population of 443m without the UK

But there's also 80m Turks in the Customs Union and there's the EFTA countries that are in the single market.

And the EU has free trade deals from Albania to Ukraine , South Africa to South Korea.

Japan , South Korea and Mexico have more than 300m customers.

I'm going to be honest here I was too lazy to look up the population of Japan and guessed

McGiver

Leroy42 wrote: »

Act of aggression? Jebus

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6857039/hostile-eu-uk-daniel-hannan-opinion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

As I predicted on this forum few weeks ago, they will turn to military terminology and eventually threats as they get more and more desperate because they have no cards left in this negotiation. They are bound to use force, threats and blackmail due to their post-imperial syndrome.

McGiver

Peregrinus wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

Good news. But PiS are Europhiles in name only as long as the EU pays and as long as they can export millions of people to EEA. Once they become a net contributors to the EU funds, I wouldn't bet on them.

Well, it's a little bit more that that. PiS also see Poland's membership of the EU as a valuable counterweight to Russian influence.

Besides, all you're really saying here is that PiS values EU membership for the benefits it confers on Poland. Well, duh. You worry about what happens when Poland becomes a net contributor but, realistically, this is not going to happen for a long time. And the other benefit that you reckon PiS appreciates, free movement, is of course permanent.

Not at all, that would be NATO. Where they come out really strongly as US allies, with rather high military spending and are happy proposing NATO/US bases on Polish territory.

Leroy42

McGiver wrote: »

As I predicted on this forum few weeks ago, they will turn to military terminology and eventually threats as they get more and more desperate because they have no cards left in this negotiation. They are bound to use force, threats and blackmail due to their post-imperial syndrome.

And its deeply worrying. We have MEP's calling that anyone in the UK that supports the EU is committing treason and should be hanged.

We have the likes of IDS and JRM claiming that the EU are bullying them and Hunt is claiming that if the EU don't come up with a deal then the people of the UK will blame the EU for generations.

They are simply added fuel to a potential fire.

Nody

trellheim wrote: »

I have always wondered why they dont dump the containers onto a train in Holyhead and a train drops them to the Continent through the Channel tunnel.

Continent tunnel is expensive and you generally need balance on the train going both ways (i.e. ideally you want 40 containers from one loading location going into UK and 40 containers going back out again back to the same area).

I've tried setting up a train line from Poland to UK which would run five times a week with a full train inbound with empty containers going out (simply limited volume going out of UK even for trucks). It was a royal pain in the behind to do it. Between having to change the locomotive three times it also involved trying to get 4 different national train companies to coordinate the slots you would be allocated for your train to avoid being sitting waiting at a random depo for your slot to come around (and they have zero interest in helping your international transport as their area is the national transport network).

Don't get me wrong it can be done but it's a massive undertake and if you can't provide the volume in both directions up to at least 80% it tends to become cheaper with truck. That does not take into account the additional flexibility of the truck option (you don't need to send 40 truck loads to one location for example or always book 40 trucks every time). There are a few upsides you can use getting around driving bans (you can unload trains in Germany on Sundays when trucks are not allowed to normally drive for example) and use as temporary storage (move containers on site on Friday and load over weekend to be moved on train on Monday to limit the space you need to have available). You can also use higher loading weight (going up by a couple of ton loading capacity) and in some areas you can go high as well but that require specialised permissions etc. In short the biggest issue with rail is national carriers still behaving as national state carriers basically.

And talking trains one of the most impressive lines I saw ran a night train from Amsterdam to Milan. Loaded train at 8pm and the train arrived at 5am in Milan with fresh flowers going out into the stores. That's something that's unbeatable by truck basically due to the direct line and speed inc. night shipping but those type of lines are exceptions in Europe and tend to be very specialised but if you can utilize them you can get insane benefits.

serfboard

EdgeCase wrote: »

The way things are headed over there, toilet paper could end up being a luxury item.

Time to refurbish an old joke:

I've heard that after Brexit, the UK's import tariff on ToiletPaper is going to be higher than the tariff on SandPaper.

Things are about to get rough!

Trasna1

Leroy42 wrote: »

Act of aggression? Jebus

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6857039/hostile-eu-uk-daniel-hannan-opinion/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Maybe it's written for the audience, but I feel like I'm back in first class reading that. Two sentence paragraphs, and nothing more complex than chest beating put forward. I believe he is incorrect as well - the EU would be open to a Norway style deal but they'd have to accept freedom of movement and pay into the budget.