Brexit discussion thread IV

blinding

The Eu has been very Careless to loose Britain . But that's what happens when the Eu Institution is so arrogant and out of touch .

Just look at the Eu with regard to Italy , Austria , Poland etc .

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

The Eu has been very Careless to loose Britain . But that's what happens when the Eu Institution is so arrogant and out of touch .

Just look at the Eu with regard to Italy , Austria , Poland etc .

Britain was the EU and decided it no longer wanted to be.

EdgeCase

I'd argue the contrary: the UK has been rather careless to cause itself to storm off in a huff and drop out of the EU. It was granted umpteen outputs, rebates, special arrangements, including full access to the single market while maintaining its own currency, visa regime, control of borders and all sorts of other things.

The UK politically failed to engage with the EU at any level, and just seems to have sat there like the hurler on the ditch (or possibly more like the soccer hooligan on the side lines) shouting abuse for the last 40 years. They know very little about the EU because the political and media debate in the UK spent decades painting entertaining, xenophobic caricatures of neighbouring countries and the EU institutions themselves and that suited the political system as they just used the EU as a mixture of bogie man, whipping boy and scapegoat.

They were always free to leave. They were also free not to progress beyond the EEC and could have fallen out into the EEA. Nobody ever forced them to do anything. However, they chose to join institutions and attempt to trash them and now they're trying to blame everyone except themselves for this mess.

I think they're going to simply drown in their own arrogance and it will be nobody else's fault other than the jingoists who've fanned the flames of this for decades.

I take no pleasure in saying any of that. It's unbelievable and terribly sad that what amounts to a tabloid-run political system has dragged the otherwise sane UK to this. I genuinely do believe Britain's better than this and the only hope I have at this stage is something better rises out of the ashes of this utter fiasco.

Sam Russell

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's hugely problematic to try to put Brexit into the context of previous historical economic disasters as there is no real precedent for this.

The European Union is almost an entirely novel concept and it exists in an era of intensely interconnected technology, supply chains and markets. It's also politically very different from entities that came about due to force, conquest or coercion. It's an entirely voluntary union, and as the UK is finding out, nobody's going to try and stop you leaving, but there are costs involved in breaking all of those links.

Well, I think the British Empire going to war in 1914 was a disaster of similar proportion to the current Brexit. In 1914, the British Empire had been the only world power since 1815 Battle of Waterloo removed Napoleon from the scene.

From 1914, the squandered all their wealth, their manpower, and their position as a World power. When USA joined in the war in 1917, the USA established the military as a standing army for the first time - up until then, they had a militia army on Minutemen (ready in a minute). Since then the USA have grown their military spending and so are now the major military force by some margin. The WW II battle completely cleaned out the UK treasury and lost the remnants of Empire. The EEC, and EU allowed them regain wealth and become a world power again (sort of).

The EU is of course modelled on the USA which was also formed by various treaties, purchases, and conquests. It is also a very connected market, and looks much the way the EU might like to look in the eyes of some EU federalists, and maybe in the next century, might well be if ever closer union continues.

Look what happened in the USA when the Sothern States declared Article 50 in 1881!

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Britain was the EU and decided it no longer wanted to be.

Cameron went to the Eu and asked for some help from the Eu . The Eu told him to sling his hook and then Brexit was voted for .

The Eu wasn’t too worried about the 26 Counties in those days .

listermint

blinding wrote: »

Cameron went to the Eu and asked for some help from the Eu . The Eu told him to sling his hook and then Brexit was voted for .

The Eu wasn’t too worried about the 26 Counties in those days .

I see.

Can you give any factual analysis of your scrumpled up red top version

blinding

listermint wrote: »

I see.

Can you give any factual analysis of your scrumpled up red top version

You don’t pay much attention when stuff is happening do you ? This is a big drawback if you are going to contribute to political threads .

McGiver

J Mysterio wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is also the No deal option. There is a difference between hard brexit and no deal.

Hard Brexit is that they leave the EU, SM, Cu and all the instituations. But they have a plan going forward in terms of trade agreement. They would have a transition period.

No deal means they crash out.

No, Hard Brexit is crash out. Anything else is Brexit really. The UK's stated desire for Brexit involves leaving the EU, SM and CU.

No deal = Hard Brexit.
'Customs Arrangement' etc = Soft Brexit.

No deal = hard Brexit
FTA (Canada+) = Brexit
EEA = soft Brexit

listermint

blinding wrote: »

You don’t pay much attention when stuff is happening do you ? This is a big drawback if you are going to contribute to political threads .

So that's a no then.

Yes thought so, more redtop nonsense then

ancapailldorcha

blinding wrote: »

You don’t pay much attention when stuff is happening do you ? This is a big drawback if you are going to contribute to political threads .

Enough of the snide digs.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's important to remember that there are two kinds of talk from the UK side. There are official positions and agreements made at the talks, and there is noise.

Jim Hacker: I'd like a new chair. I hate swivel chairs.
Bernard Woolley: It used to be said there were two kinds of chairs to go with two kinds of Minister:
one sort folds up instantly; the other sort goes round and round in circles.
- Yes, Minister. Series 1 Episode 1 (1980)

As recent events have shown those that haven't folded instantly when push came to shove are still going around in circles. Still wanting cherries and red lines and no consequences, and offering nothing in return.

judeboy101 wrote: »

The smart money is on an extension to A50, how the ERG react, knowing the promise of "freedom" by march is now gone, that will be the interesting bit.

Right from day one the EU has been clear that an extension would only be possible if the deal was nearly done. Dotting the i's and crossing the t's. The mish-mash of deals with Switzerland is exactly why they don't want to extend unless the finishing line is in sight.

An extension while there's no border backstop and red lines on the Four Freedoms and demanding the rules (ECJ) don't apply ? Deam on.


245 days to go.

blinding

blinding wrote: »

Cameron went to the Eu and asked for some help from the Eu . The Eu told him to sling his hook and then Brexit was voted for .

The Eu wasn’t too worried about the 26 Counties in those days .

listermint wrote: »

So that's a no then.

Yes thought so, more redtop nonsense then

Every thing I have said is in the public domain and on the record and also correct .

Where was the Eu when Cameron asked for help ?

Why was the Eu not looking out for the 26 Counties then ?

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

Cameron went to the Eu and asked for some help from the Eu . The Eu told him to sling his hook and then Brexit was voted for .

The Eu wasn’t too worried about the 26 Counties in those days .

Cameron went looking for yet more opt outs and cake, you mean.

listermint

blinding wrote: »

Every thing I have said is in the public domain and on the record and also correct .

Where was the Eu when Cameron asked for help ?

Why was the Eu not looking out for the 26 Counties then ?

What was he looking for help with and why in your opinion was it not possible for the EU to facilitate, given the EU rules


In detail please.it may help people side with your version

An Ciarraioch

blinding wrote: »

Every thing I have said is in the public domain and on the record and also correct .

Where was the Eu when Cameron asked for help ?

Why was the Eu not looking out for the 26 Counties then ?

The UK already had EU-related powers to limit immigration - when the accession states joined in 2004, the only countries to allow their citizens immediate entry were Ireland, Britain and Sweden.

ancapailldorcha

Low quality posts deleted.

McGiver

View wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Trasna1 wrote: »

A narrow win for remain that keeps them in will just have the UK constantly blocking and causing issues for the other 27

aka The Good Old Days.

Nope. It would almost certainly mean that the U.K. couldn’t agree to any changes - be they good or bad - were they to stay on.

There is a section in Tony Blair’s memoirs where he describe the response he got in the HoC after European Council meetings. Anytime it was futile or disastrous meeting, he received a hero’s welcome. Anytime he secured agreements that advanced the UK’s interests, he was greeted with hostility and jeering.

That mentality has if anything strengthened not reduced since his time and would be worse after a cancelled Brexit.

Agree. No EU army, no fiscal integration, no increased financial oversight, simply no effort of further integration. They would become even more eurosceptic and destabilising element after unsuccessful Brexit attempt.
Unless they fix their broken political system, start educating the people about the EU and ban Daily Mail, Sun, Telegraph this is not going to change.

Capt'n Midnight

blinding wrote: »

The Eu has been very Careless to loose Britain . But that's what happens when the Eu Institution is so arrogant and out of touch .

Just look at the Eu with regard to Italy , Austria , Poland etc .

They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
For trying to change the system from within
I'm coming now, I'm coming to reward them
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin

'cept with the EU you can change the system from within, and we already have Berlin

Italy, Austria and Poland are still in the EU

Water John

Bannon went courting the Far Right in Poland and they told him to get lost. They weren't anti EU.

lawred2

blinding wrote: »

Cameron went to the Eu and asked for some help from the Eu . The Eu told him to sling his hook and then Brexit was voted for .

The Eu wasn’t too worried about the 26 Counties in those days .

Some help with what exactly?

blinding

lawred2 wrote: »

Some help with what exactly?

I don’t think he wanted Brexit to happen so he probably thought the Eu would help him with that , especially if the Eu was concerned about the 26 Counties .

I suppose the Eu was busy washing its hair !

Capt'n Midnight

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/27/focusing-on-the-bigger-picture-is-how-to-prevent-a-brexit-disaster/

I liked the image from this comment.

The EU have been waiting for the ferrets fighting in the sack to come up with something to discuss. They briefly emerged from the sack at Chequers - and they dived straight back into it arguing over changing it.

"The exclusion of Britain from the high-security development of the Galileo system (Europe’s alternative to GPS) was a quite gratuitous slap in the face."
Apparently it was Britain (pre-Brexit) that insisted that only EU member states would be allowed to participate in Galileo !

:rolleyes:

Rhineshark

I don't know. I could see Britain going authoritarian. The more frankly bat**** Tories (and the press) seem to have the bit between their teeth and are ratchetting up the rhetoric - look at that nonsense about bringing back the death penalty, Remainers being considered treasonous for "extreme loyalty to the EU", whatever exactly -that- means. Then there's the extradition business.

And it's been going this way for a while with the hardline talk. So far MPs, HoL and judges have been attacked with the same sort of language. As far as the hard right are concerned, Jo Cox appears to be wiped from history (Farage and his "not a shot fired" but Brexiters weren't exactly in a hurry to correct him.)

The country is shaping up to be somewhat unstable next year, on top of being not-entirely-stable for the last two years and -that- after a decade of austerity. Oh, and thanks to the Withdrawal Bill, the government (or some department of) can pretty much reshape British law with very little oversight. I know they got sonething through to ensure some oversight but we'll see how that pans out.

On top of all the rest, the people seem...kinda apathetic about politics? Bar a couple of years ago in 2012 when riots damn near spontaneously broke out. Stoic-to-explode isn't a healthy set up.

There's all the issues over devolved powers too and while I have a -smidge- of sympathy for May on that point, she handled it about as insensitively as she could, especially with the Scots.

If things go badly next year, people react badly to it and the Tories are still in charge, I absolutely wouldn't rule out "emergency powers".

Authoritarianism is a scale rather than a point and it has been sliding that way for a while imo.

EdgeCase

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Cameron went looking for yet more opt outs and cake, you mean.

The most controversial one was about preventing the Eurozone from passing regulations, and the whole objection was structured as a means of ensuring the primacy of the City of London and avoiding any kind of emerging common regulations.

That debate goes right back to the Fiscal Compact Treaty, where the UK effectively attempted to veto it and never signed it. It came into existence between the EU 27 only.

That treaty's considered to be fundamental to the safe functioning of the Eurozone and was part of a package of measures to un-do the damage of 2008.

Effectively, Brexit started to spin out of that series of evens and, is at least in part, about ensuring that the City of London's not subject to any regulation and can continue to operate as a light-touch-regulation financial centre.

They still seem to think they've some kind of god-given right to be a major "European" financial hub while being entirely outside the scope of European regulations. It would be a bit like running a large chunk of the UK economy out of a totally unregulated Jersey or something like that. It wouldn't fly and didn't fly with the European side either.

After that point, the layers of jingoism, xenophobia and anti-immigration rhetoric were added and we end up with where we are now.

We're beyond the point of no return really at this stage in terms of UK-EU relations across a whole load of areas.

They're entirely free to leave, but they're not free to just take the kitchen sink, the car and the television with them on the way out the door.

lawred2

blinding wrote: »

I don’t think he wanted Brexit to happen so he probably thought the Eu would help him with that , especially if the Eu was concerned about the 26 Counties .

I suppose the Eu was busy washing its hair !

What?

Enzokk

blinding wrote: »

I don’t think he wanted Brexit to happen so he probably thought the Eu would help him with that , especially if the Eu was concerned about the 26 Counties .

I suppose the Eu was busy washing its hair !

I think he thought he would be in a coalition again and his partner in the coalition would hold firm on no referendum on EU membership. Then he would wash his hands on his manifesto pledge and he could get what he wanted, peace for 5 years where the next leader would have to deal with the eurosceptics in his party.

The EU has been clear that it will not do anything that will threaten the current status of the single market. Anything that Cameron asked that would threaten this was never going to be granted. He actually got a lot of concessions for the UK but the people had been fed a constant anti-EU diet of news from the papers and he didn't do much to extol the virtues of the EU either. A recipe for disaster.

David Cameron’s EU reform deal scorecard

blinding

Enzokk wrote: »

I think he thought he would be in a coalition again and his partner in the coalition would hold firm on no referendum on EU membership. Then he would wash his hands on his manifesto pledge and he could get what he wanted, peace for 5 years where the next leader would have to deal with the eurosceptics in his party.

The EU has been clear that it will not do anything that will threaten the current status of the single market. Anything that Cameron asked that would threaten this was never going to be granted. He actually got a lot of concessions for the UK but the people had been fed a constant anti-EU diet of news from the papers and he didn't do much to extol the virtues of the EU either. A recipe for disaster.

David Cameron’s EU reform deal scorecard

For the Good of both , Britain is better out of the Eu . It was a bad marriage / relationship and permanent separation is the only course of action .

Part as amicably as possible and move on .

cml387

In the midst of all this Brit bashing, it might be fair to point out that we aren't exactly wonderful ourselves when it comes to jingoism and Europe bashing.

It might be pointed out that once we became net contributors to the EU the enthusiasm waned somewhat, until we managed to cobble together a "region" called the Borders,Midlands and West which continued to get regional aid.
(The headquarters of this region are in Ballaghdereen. Did you know that?).

Declan Ganley got a considerable following for his anti-EU rhetoric after the Lisbon referendums and he hasn't gone away.

And of course without Britain to back us up, wither our generous taxation arrangements?

This "aren't we great Europeans" stuff can get a bit grating sometimes.

"No nations have friends, only interests"

The guy who said that was a founder of the EU.

BlitzKrieg

cml387 wrote: »

In the midst of all this Brit bashing, it might be fair to point out that we aren't exactly wonderful ourselves when it comes to jingoism and Europe bashing.

It might be pointed out that once we became net contributors to the EU the enthusiasm waned somewhat, until we managed to cobble together a "region" called the Borders,Midlands and West which continued to get regional aid.
(The headquarters of this region are in Ballaghdereen. Did you know that?).

Declan Ganley got a considerable following for his anti-EU rhetoric after the Lisbon referendums and he hasn't gone away.

And of course without Britain to back us up, wither our generous taxation arrangements?

This "aren't we great Europeans" stuff can get a bit grating sometimes.

"No nations have friends, only interests"

The guy who said that was a founder of the EU.

Very true.

I would add though that I think we were kinda lucky in that a heavy dose of cold water got thrown on our politicians with the lisbon referendums, the brief rise of Declan Ganley was predominantly driven by apathy by our government at the time towards the EU process, they just assumed the electorate would just accept anything based on how well Ireland was doing economically at the time.


I dont think libertas or the anti EU rhetoric of 2007/2008 would have gained as much traction if Fianna Fail had actually made an effort to explain Lisbon the first time and cut them off on a lot of points. The first lisbon referendum pretty much had it's topics dictated by Ganley and co with issues like Ireland losing our Commissioner ballooning out of perspective and becoming the most important talking point at times.

The UK has been unfortunate that there was no early scare or shake up to the euroskeptic rhetoric early enough and it's now firmly rooted in there. They'll struggle for years to change the talking points on the EU in the UK.

EDIT: I'd add I think the scare over Lisbon seems to have affected a lot of our referendums since, I've noticed the subsequent governments have been much more pro-active on ensuring accurate information is available to all.

FrancieBrady

cml387 wrote: »

In the midst of all this Brit bashing, it might be fair to point out that we aren't exactly wonderful ourselves when it comes to jingoism and Europe bashing.

I certainly don't have a problem with scepticism or fighting for what is best for one's country. I don't think any other country would see it differently either.