Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Very true.

I would add though that I think we were kinda lucky in that a heavy dose of cold water got thrown on our politicians with the lisbon referendums, the brief rise of Declan Ganley was predominantly driven by apathy by our government at the time towards the EU process, they just assumed the electorate would just accept anything based on how well Ireland was doing economically at the time.


I dont think libertas or the anti EU rhetoric of 2007/2008 would have gained as much traction if Fianna Fail had actually made an effort to explain Lisbon the first time and cut them off on a lot of points. The first lisbon referendum pretty much had it's topics dictated by Ganley and co with issues like Ireland losing our Commissioner ballooning out of perspective and becoming the most important talking point at times.

The UK has been unfortunate that there was no early scare or shake up to the euroskeptic rhetoric early enough and it's now firmly rooted in there. They'll struggle for years to change the talking points on the EU in the UK.

EDIT: I'd add I think the scare over Lisbon seems to have affected a lot of our referendums since, I've noticed the subsequent governments have been much more pro-active on ensuring accurate information is available to all.

Indeed, if the UK had a Referendum Commission, the British electorate would at least had been completely clear about the terms and conditions surrounding the various options after a Leave vote.

Imreoir2

cml387 wrote: »

In the midst of all this Brit bashing, it might be fair to point out that we aren't exactly wonderful ourselves when it comes to jingoism and Europe bashing.

It might be pointed out that once we became net contributors to the EU the enthusiasm waned somewhat, until we managed to cobble together a "region" called the Borders,Midlands and West which continued to get regional aid.
(The headquarters of this region are in Ballaghdereen. Did you know that?).

Declan Ganley got a considerable following for his anti-EU rhetoric after the Lisbon referendums and he hasn't gone away.

And of course without Britain to back us up, wither our generous taxation arrangements?

This "aren't we great Europeans" stuff can get a bit grating sometimes.

"No nations have friends, only interests"

The guy who said that was a founder of the EU.

I think there is a significant difference between Ireland and the UK in terms of public perception of the EU. People in Ireland may have their issues with the EU, and to be fair, the EU has its problems, but Irish people reaslise that the EU has been a significant benefit to this country since we joined. If there was an Irexit referendum in this country, would leave even get over 20%? Probably not.

zapitastas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think there is a significant difference between Ireland and the UK in terms of public perception of the EU. People in Ireland may have their issues with the EU, and to be fair, the EU has its problems, but Irish people reaslise that the EU has been a significant benefit to this country since we joined. If there was an Irexit referendum in this country, would leave even get over 20%? Probably not.

I would imagine leave would be lucky to get over 10%

Econ__

Leroy42 wrote: »

It seems after yesterdays Barniers rejection of the main parts of the WP, the EU is starting to take the gloves off

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/995074/Brexit-news-Guy-Verhofstadt-Theresa-May-White-Paper-UK-EU-negotiation

I see many have not commented on this, so I assume people are not understanding it's significance..

The European Parliament's Brexit steering group issued a strongly worded statement threatening that there will be no deal without a legally operative backstop for (just) Northern Ireland.

This was retweeted by the EU's deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand. She's effectively the chief negotiator on the substantive detail - the UK equivalent is Olly Robbins.

McGiver

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A somewhat curious piece by Tim Garton-Ash on Brexit, referring for the potential for a "Weimar Britain", even though he himself admits the likelihood of an authoritarian regime in the UK is practically zero, nor would the economic decline reach the same extent. He's strongest when calling for co-operation on security and analysing the international political scene, but ends weakly by stating individual members need a deal more than the UK does.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/27/eu-brexit-weimar-britain

All the more surprising, given Garton-Ash is most famous for his series of articles leading up to and following German unification, which was probably the last event of similar significance to affect an EU member.

The initial analysis of the state of the British society is accurate.

The rest of the article shows very much British misunderstanding of the EU and probably continental Europe in general. And in fairness, it's very UK centric and poor.

"With all its faults, Theresa May’s Brexit white paper is a step towards pragmatic realism' - this is such a cliché and we have been hearing it a lot recently. Maybe in crazy Brexitland even slightest spark of sanity is considered "a step towards realism", but certainly not anywhere else. There's nothing realistic or pragmatic about the WP.

"Right now, the ball is in the EU’s court." - no it isn't, the WP has been read, analysed and rejected, back to you UK. If UK doesn't drop some of the red lines CU and/or SM level of access isn't possible.

"Is there no compromise at all to be made, for instance, on the issue of labour mobility, if Britain wants to stay in the single market for goods?" - no and no compromise is needed - 3 months no work immigrants go home, you just didn't bother to implement it!

The thing is, the social as well as political crisis in the UK leading to Brexit issues in its entirety of a domestic making. Unless Britain (England) fix their issues, they will keep descending into deeper social and political swamp. Nothing to do do with the EU whatsoever, millions Brexits or lack of thereof can't help them to address the issues.

EdgeCase

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think there is a significant difference between Ireland and the UK in terms of public perception of the EU. People in Ireland may have their issues with the EU, and to be fair, the EU has its problems, but Irish people reaslise that the EU has been a significant benefit to this country since we joined. If there was an Irexit referendum in this country, would leave even get over 20%? Probably not.

Ireland in Eurobarometer opinion polls has been consistently the most pro European country in the bloc and that included right through the financial crisis. We are very capable of maximising our benefits and of critical engagement and giving out about the EU much in the same way that we do about national government.

What feels different to me in Ireland is the EU doesn't seem to be perceived as a far away imposition. People know who their MEPs are, they're aware of what commissionsers are and who the Irish appointment is, they aren't afraid of engagement with the EU because I don't think they see it competing with their Irish identity and know they're capable of playing a team game. You get the sense here the EU is relevant to life in the UK you absolutely do not get that sense at all.

Being pro European doesn't mean being uncritical of the EU institutions and it doesn't mean agreeing with everything that comes out of the big states like France and Germany either.

I have always had the sense in England that the EU was perceived as an unwelcome, outside entity they were begrudgingly going along with, not a partnership with neighbours.

Also on EU immigration and emigration, maybe I’m in a bubble but I don’t think so. I know a lot of EU nationals who live here, French, polish, German, Spanish and I know people who’ve moved back to their home countries and I count some of them amongst my closest friends. Also loads of my friends are going out with or married to people from elsewhere in the EU, notably from Poland and France.

I don’t get the sense those people are unwelcome here at all. Rather, I think it comes across more like expanding the Irish global influence net. I’m not saying that Ireland’s xenophobia free. It certainly isn’t, but I do feel a different vibe here than I did in parts of England.

McGiver

FrancieBrady wrote: »

blinding wrote: »

Cameron went to the Eu and asked for some help from the Eu . The Eu told him to sling his hook and then Brexit was voted for .

The Eu wasn’t too worried about the 26 Counties in those days .

Cameron went looking for yet more opt outs and cake, you mean.

Cameron presented demands incompatible with basic EU principles and treaties. Instead of trying to build an alliance of all likely-minded states to support his "reform" he went alone - typical British approach, they think they can push anything alone by force instead of cooperating with others, but that just won't work in the EU. Nevertheless, the EU tried to accommodate his demands. The rest is history.

cml387

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I certainly don't have a problem with scepticism or fighting for what is best for one's country. I don't think any other country would see it differently either.

Exactly. It only seems to become an issue when it's the UK.

There are many in the UK who believe passionately that they would be better off outside the EU.
That they are wrong does not make their views beneath contempt and unworthy of considering as some on this forum seem to do.

badtoro

McGiver wrote: »

The thing is, the social as well as political crisis in the UK leading to Brexit issues in its entirety of a domestic making. Unless Britain (England) fix their issues, they will keep descending into deeper social and political swamp. Nothing to do do with the EU whatsoever, millions Brexits or lack of thereof can't help them to address the issues.

100% correct. Reminds me of the two British tourists I met a couple of weeks ago. Distilled down the problem was British bureaucrats gold plating EU regulations that in their own words other EU states ignored, their solution is leave the EU and give 100% control to the gold platers.

EU team need medals to be dealing with the likes of that logic.

McGiver

Rhineshark wrote: »

Authoritarianism is a scale rather than a point and it has been sliding that way for a while imo.

Exactly, it's about the degree of power the government holds over its citizens, the degree it neglects human rights and the degree of erosion of democracy, especially its checks and balances. It's difficult to pinpoint one specific point where authoritarianism starts and democracy ends.

You can argue the erosion of democracy has been already taking place in the UK with the help of the tabloids, it's just a step ahead of when the gov actually for example tries to control the judiciary. There's certainly an observable negative trend in terms of political culture in the UK and a clear onset of "Trumpism". So if the trend continues it could end up in authoritarian government.

FrancieBrady

cml387 wrote: »

Exactly. It only seems to become an issue when it's the UK.

There are many in the UK who believe passionately that they would be better off outside the EU.
That they are wrong does not make their views beneath contempt and unworthy of considering as some on this forum seem to do.

It isn't an issue when it comes to the UK. We had to watch when they blocked reform to CAP to suit their farmers etc and when they got their opt outs and vetos.

They can believe passionately in the man in the moon marigolds and good luck to them, but they are gonna listen to the other side of the argument. Which is, in the most part their stance hasn't a leg to stand on in practical or realistic terms.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Indeed, if the UK had a Referendum Commission, the British electorate would at least had been completely clear about the terms and conditions surrounding the various options after a Leave vote.

But it's OK because the great British public will get to vote on the final deal :rolleyes:

UK voters back Brexit deal referendum as May's ratings plunge: polls

They will probably get a (binary) choice* of

* Call off Brexit and return to the Status Quo (Polish plumbers instead of Indian ones)
* Agree to Norway
* Agree to Canada
* Agree to a deal the EU rejected outright in week one and will reject again
* WTO Brexit , because I'm a useful idiot OR I've Lodsa money and love firesales.
" Send them home, bring back the death penalty and increase my pension. "

You won't see "If I can't get the Brexit I want, then remain."
because sanity is not the default option



*Not all choices may appear

ArthurDayne

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think there is a significant difference between Ireland and the UK in terms of public perception of the EU. People in Ireland may have their issues with the EU, and to be fair, the EU has its problems, but Irish people reaslise that the EU has been a significant benefit to this country since we joined. If there was an Irexit referendum in this country, would leave even get over 20%? Probably not.

Ireland and the UK came into the the EU from very different trajectories.

For Ireland, accession to the EU was an assertion of national sovereignty in that entry to the EU was a symbolic but also tangible taking of 'our place among the nations'. In the time since, the country has transformed in overwhelmingly positive fashion -- from a young, fringe and backwards place into an exemplar of a small-nation economy.

For the UK however, accession to the EU was to many a meek acceptance of decline. Despite the glory of the World War victories, the Empire had crumbled and the Pax Britannica was dead. The very concept of having to pool power with old continental rivals in order to maintain its place in the world just never sat right with many in Britain who could not reconcile the tales of Imperial dominance and victory in war with the reality of its lost supremacy.

I think that's where perceptions differ. For us, it was a step-up in the world, and for the British it was seen a necessary but nonetheless humbling step down. Of course, the fact that they too have been amazingly successful within the EU is lost on many Brexiteers.

listermint

This particularly surprised me .

Alot.

But it comes off the back of what you've heard about centerist unionists and farmers. It's the economy stupid.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/north-should-prepare-for-possibility-for-united-ireland-says-former-dup-leader-1.3578620

Water John

Wrong link I suspect Lister?

listermint

Water John wrote: »

Wrong link I suspect Lister?

Former Dup leader says north should prepare for united island...

Right link

househero

Rome was a powerful city (not a country)

England was a powerful country (not the UK)

America was a powerful group of united states

Now is the time of continents

Europe's economy is bigger than the USAs, trukmp has been tweeting so much no-one has copped on to the distraction. China and India's growth is huge. But Europe is the sleeping secret superpower.

Capt'n Midnight

blinding wrote: »

For the Good of both , Britain is better out of the Eu . It was a bad marriage / relationship and permanent separation is the only course of action .

Part as amicably as possible and move on .

amicably ??

Imagine your spouse wants to leave Europe to back to the UK because they are "financially independent".

But still wants 24/7 visitation rights, plans to live at your house and run a business from their but you can't go to theirs, and tells you if there's a problem only UK courts apply, where their uncle is a judge.

The UK don't want permanent separation, they want to ride the alimony pony / keep "conjugal rights" and have a bit on the side too.



Brexit's not complicated. Study the diagram. If it isn't on the menu, you can't have it.
And wishing won't make it so.

listermint

househero wrote: »

Rome was a powerful city (not a country)

England was a powerful country (not the UK)

America was a powerful group of united states

Now is the time of continents

Europe's economy is bigger than the USAs, trukmp has been tweeting so much no-one has copped on to the distraction. China and India's growth is huge. But Europe is the sleeping secret superpower.

Next up.


Powerful planet.

Hopefully we sort our **** out and start exploring the universe together.

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

They will probably get a (binary) choice* of

* Call off Brexit and return to the Status Quo (Polish plumbers instead of Indian ones)
* Agree to Norway
* Agree to Canada
* Agree to a deal the EU rejected outright in week one and will reject again
* WTO Brexit , because I'm a useful idiot OR I've Lodsa money and love firesales.
" Send them home, bring back the death penalty and increase my pension. "

You won't see "If I can't get the Brexit I want, then remain."
because sanity is not the default option


*Not all choices may appear

Joking aside, I thought that the referendum about the deal may be a way out and many politicians may actually be in favour so that they can release this toxic burden of Brexit and conveniently give up any responsibility for any damage caused by it.

However, now thinking about it, given the state and "quality" of the British electorate in the general, where at least 30 to 50% are misinformed, uninformed, deluded and even brainwashed, and state of the political scene and especially the media, I think it could be easily lost as well and it could as much divisive as the first one.

Let's say there would be two options:
1. Leave with the deal negotiated by HM Gov
2. Remain

Now, who will explain to the largely misinformed, uninformed and brainwashed electorate what the consequences of such deal would be? And how? The tabloids, ERG and Leave campaigns (with the help of Kremlin) will keep lying, and misinforming. And even if its explained correctly, how the mostly ignorant (in terms of EU and economics, international trade etc) electorate will understand the implications?

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

"Right now, the ball is in the EU’s court." - no it isn't, the WP has been read, analysed and rejected, back to you UK. If UK doesn't drop some of the red lines CU and/or SM level of access isn't possible.

"Is there no compromise at all to be made, for instance, on the issue of labour mobility, if Britain wants to stay in the single market for goods?" - no and no compromise is needed - 3 months no work immigrants go home, you just didn't bother to implement it!

+1

That deal was rejected as soon as the ink was dry on previous agreements the EU made with other countries. The EU is a union. Ask any union member what happens to goodwill if management tries to subvert the union in a closed shop.


Don't blame the EU because you didn't use the rules :rolleyes:
You want blue passports, burgandy was only advisory so complete non-issue.
You want British passports, invoke "national security" so you don't have to tender abroad.


You want to rouse the rabble ? Looks like you don't need anyone's help.

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Let's say there would be two options:
1. Leave with the deal negotiated by HM Gov
2. Remain

In an ideal world there would be those choices AND
unbiased information from something approaching our Referrenum Comission produces

But I'm still going with -
*Not all choices may appear

Because unless May rolls back on the ECJ or EHCR it'll be - Deal or No Deal !
Which means the 48% who voted remain will be completely disinfranchised

And since any likely UK offering was rejected by the EU on principle years ago the leavers won't be voting for anything either.



But maybe they'll get a dose of reality. Apart from May's red lines, and the Brexiteers red lines, the question is how can the UK make this look like a win ?

Maybe call a bigger fish , Trump goes public on destroying an independent UK ?
Be dead easy to push his buttons, and he can do remarkably quick U-turns, almost on demand.

Imreoir2

listermint wrote: »

This particularly surprised me .

Alot.

But it comes off the back of what you've heard about centerist unionists and farmers. It's the economy stupid.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/north-should-prepare-for-possibility-for-united-ireland-says-former-dup-leader-1.3578620

I think it might be a very thinly veild message to Arlene and co to cop on and pull back from any kind of hard Brexit before its too late.

Interesting that he spoke of "protections" for Unionists in a United Ireland. What he said makes a lot of sense, but would have been compleatly taboo to mention even a few years ago.

ArthurDayne

listermint wrote: »

This particularly surprised me .

Alot.

But it comes off the back of what you've heard about centerist unionists and farmers. It's the economy stupid.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/north-should-prepare-for-possibility-for-united-ireland-says-former-dup-leader-1.3578620

I'm getting so tired of this talk about the Irish Government having been antagonistic in the Brexit process. This country stands to be affected significantly by Brexit -- a fact which was essentially ignored in the political debate in the UK pre-referendum.

It is ironic that the Brexiteers talk about reclaiming sovereignty and the importance of small independent nation states, yet they sneer at the prospect of a small nation state having the temerity to stand up for its own interests.

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I think it might be a very thinly veild message to Arlene and co to cop on and pull back from any kind of hard Brexit before its too late.

Interesting that he spoke of "protections" for Unionists in a United Ireland. What he said makes a lot of sense, but would have been compleatly taboo to mention even a few years ago.

I don't think Arlene is the problem, I think she's more moderate on Brexit. It seems to be the DUP MPs where all the problems lie.

bilston

Rhineshark wrote: »

I don't know. I could see Britain going authoritarian. The more frankly bat**** Tories (and the press) seem to have the bit between their teeth and are ratchetting up the rhetoric - look at that nonsense about bringing back the death penalty, Remainers being considered treasonous for "extreme loyalty to the EU", whatever exactly -that- means. Then there's the extradition business.

And it's been going this way for a while with the hardline talk. So far MPs, HoL and judges have been attacked with the same sort of language. As far as the hard right are concerned, Jo Cox appears to be wiped from history (Farage and his "not a shot fired" but Brexiters weren't exactly in a hurry to correct him.)

The country is shaping up to be somewhat unstable next year, on top of being not-entirely-stable for the last two years and -that- after a decade of austerity. Oh, and thanks to the Withdrawal Bill, the government (or some department of) can pretty much reshape British law with very little oversight. I know they got sonething through to ensure some oversight but we'll see how that pans out.

On top of all the rest, the people seem...kinda apathetic about politics? Bar a couple of years ago in 2012 when riots damn near spontaneously broke out. Stoic-to-explode isn't a healthy set up.

There's all the issues over devolved powers too and while I have a -smidge- of sympathy for May on that point, she handled it about as insensitively as she could, especially with the Scots.

If things go badly next year, people react badly to it and the Tories are still in charge, I absolutely wouldn't rule out "emergency powers".

Authoritarianism is a scale rather than a point and it has been sliding that way for a while imo.

'Emergency Powers'...A bit OTT, Britain is one of the most non authoritarian countries on the planet. Some on here would have you believe that the Far Right are about to seize power in some kind of Putsch.

Akrasia

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

In an ideal world there would be those choices AND
unbiased information from something approaching our Referrenum Comission produces

But I'm still going with -
*Not all choices may appear

Because unless May rolls back on the ECJ or EHCR it'll be - Deal or No Deal !
Which means the 48% who voted remain will be completely disinfranchised

And since any likely UK offering was rejected by the EU on principle years ago the leavers won't be voting for anything either.



But maybe they'll get a dose of reality. Apart from May's red lines, and the Brexiteers red lines, the question is how can the UK make this look like a win ?

Maybe call a bigger fish , Trump goes public on destroying an independent UK ?
Be dead easy to push his buttons, and he can do remarkably quick U-turns, almost on demand.

But as lil Lisa knows, some people never change, but some other people quickly change And then quickly change back.

Trump u turns happen so often they are often a maze or a circle

bilston

Akrasia wrote: »

Theresa May should call a press conference saying she has been advised that the referendum was materially affected by outside hostile actors.

Blame Russia, Cambridge analytica etc.

Use them as the scapegoat, politicians and voters love scapegoats. The brexiteers are gonna blame immigrants and the EU for all their woes if they crash out, Its better to pick actually malevolent forces then innocent bystanders or future allies and vital trading partners.

Going back to the bluffer analogy, its easier to fold if she can tell herself that she was right to bluff given the information she had at the time, but if 'the will of the people' was corrupted then she can say she has a duty to reconfigure her options

I'm not sure if you watch Homeland, but anyone who saw the last episode of the most recent series...I've wondered if that outcome could happen. The media seem to be looking into the Leave Campaign a bit more now. Aaron Banks being the latest to be investigated.

ArthurDayne

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Ireland and the UK came into the the EU from very different trajectories.

For Ireland, accession to the EU was an assertion of national sovereignty in that entry to the EU was a symbolic but also tangible taking of 'our place among the nations'. In the time since, the country has transformed in overwhelmingly positive fashion -- from a young, fringe and backwards place into an exemplar of a small-nation economy.

For the UK however, accession to the EU was to many a meek acceptance of decline. Despite the glory of the World War victories, the Empire had crumbled and the Pax Britannica was dead. The very concept of having to pool power with old continental rivals in order to maintain its place in the world just never sat right with many in Britain who could not reconcile the tales of Imperial dominance and victory in war with the reality of its lost supremacy.

I think that's where perceptions differ. For us, it was a step-up in the world, and for the British it was seen a necessary but nonetheless humbling step down. Of course, the fact that they too have been amazingly successful within the EU is lost on many Brexiteers.

This is it, especially when "sovereignty" is mentioned. Along with the fact that in terms of being "pro" or "anti"-EU we've seen the benefits and appreciate them. We see it as a seat at the table rather than being spoken down to, and as it happens it was Britain who were the ones who told us what to do for so long. They seem to take issue with collaboration and being one of many equals.

VinLieger

bilston wrote: »

'Emergency Powers'...A bit OTT, Britain is one of the most non authoritarian countries on the planet. Some on here would have you believe that the Far Right are about to seize power in some kind of Putsch.

1% of the worlds population yet 20% of its cctv yeah not authoritarian at all....