Brexit discussion thread IV

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Stop replying to the banned poster please and get back on topic.

lawred2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

his American girlfriend has just been denied a work visa or whatever, so because the UK has a definite quota of immigrants, and X number that quota has to go to EU citizens, he thought that was unfair.

Where did he get that nonsense from?

There is no such measurement of EU migration so I've no idea how there could be any sort of quota system in operation.

cml387

McGiver wrote: »

Exactly. Actually Euro is too weak currency for Germans, Deutsche Mark was stronger, but I think Germans are OK with that for the sake of the political and economic integration, correct me if I'm wrong.

What is important is that Germany voluntarily chose to contain itself in the EU structures and went ahead with a political integration as a reaction to the issues they created in first half of the 20th century. And all other founding EU members were also happy to contain Germany in the EU, as well as contain themselves in it too, as opposed to let Germany go loose, because Germany is just very strong industrious nation and whenever it went alone it ended up in disaster. And it is exactly this arrangement which lead to the longest period of prosperity and peace in European, and almost total elimination of the kind of rivalry between European nations which in the past lead to wars every few years.

The second world war is now fast disappearing in the rear view mirror.
Perhaps deep down in the British race memory is a feeling that, in the end, all the EU structures will fall apart and in the ensuing chaos the island nation will stand alone again.
That may account for the popularity of Dad's Army re-runs on BBC2:)

trellheim

The second world war is now fast disappearing in the rear view mirror.
Perhaps deep down in the British race memory is a feeling that, in the end, all the EU structures will fall apart and in the ensuing chaos the island nation will stand alone again.
That may account for the popularity of Dad's Army re-runs on BBC2

WW2 is still very relevant, the causes of it are being rediscovered all the time.

As for the UK the Mail and the Express have much blame to take ( as does the BBC at the moment ) .


The current crapfest with Newsnight. Chris Wylie saying "Vote Leave Broke the Law" and newsnight "thats not a fact its an allegation" when its a solid fact from the referendum commission ...

First Up

First Up wrote: »

A "no deal" Brexit doesn't mean trade will stop. It might involve tariffs etc but its not an embargo.

Well one of the key issues regarding leaving is regulations.. The UK will now have its own "This is medicine | This is not medicine." system which while copying the EU it's currently been part of, could have a delay initially in approving a myriad of medicines. They have done no prep for this sort of thing.

Leaving the borders open or whatever doesn't really fly when you've got professionals with specific qualifications not being able to what it is they used to do.

lawred2 wrote: »

Where did he get that nonsense from?

There is no such measurement of EU migration so I've no idea how there could be any sort of quota system in operation.

I've no idea where it came from. I didn't want to press the issue and my brother didn't either. We just questioned the idea that even if that were the case, would it be worth it.

trellheim

By the way. I was unhappy about posting what I thought was a current Bloomberg article.

Here's probably the most accurate sumup from an outside POV , posted this morning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-28/u-k-ministers-fear-bloody-last-chapter-of-may-s-brexit-thriller

Also see this tweet

Mark English
‏

@EULondonMark
11h11 hours ago
More
Worth repeating (daily?) that in Brexit negotiations @MichelBarnier is acting in line with a clear mandate from EU27 leaders and that both they and @Europarl_EN will have to ratify result. Not some sort of solo mission by ‘Brussels’ as some in UK seem to suggest.

https://twitter.com/EULondonMark/status/1023124693891596288

and we've seen that Verhoftstatd in the parliament will be hard to get past , never mind the EU27

Leroy42

Its a very dangerous game that TM and her government are playing by trying to open up a wedge between Barnier and the individual countries.

For it to work, they would have to succeed in convincing each and everyone of the countries, as each of them has a veto.

I assume that they think that many of the countries don't really care one way of the other in terms of the specifics of the deal itself, although that would seem to be based on the thinking that other countries have such a negative attitude to the EU as they do.

But it is really strange given that it will only take the likes of Germany (very pro EU and able to withstand better than many a hard brexit) and France (which again is very Pro EU and I would think see the UK leaving as a chance for them to get more influence). And of course Ireland.

Given that TM has allowed this talk of calling out Ireland, no calling the media out on its portrayal of Leo of a fool etc (doesn't have to be publicly but at least privately.

Finally, it would seem normal that Barnier and his team will take this as something as a kick in the teeth.

I fail to see a route to it being in any way successful.

The only thing I can think of is that they get other countries to put pressure on the likes of Ireland to agree to less than what they are seeking.

First Up

Deleted User wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

A "no deal" Brexit doesn't mean trade will stop. It might involve tariffs etc but its not an embargo.

Well one of the key issues regarding leaving is regulations.. The UK will now have its own "This is medicine | This is not medicine." system which while copying the EU it's currently been part of, could have a delay initially in approving a myriad of medicines. They have done no prep for this sort of thing.

Leaving the borders open or whatever doesn't really fly when you've got professionals with specific qualifications not being able to what it is they used to do.

lawred2 wrote: »

Where did he get that nonsense from?

There is no such measurement of EU migration so I've no idea how there could be any sort of quota system in operation.

I've no idea where it came from. I didn't want to press the issue and my brother didn't either. We just questioned the idea that even if that were the case, would it be worth it.

The folk I talk to in Brussels and elsewhere (and I talk to them a lot) have long expected that the UK's "end game" strategy is to get "mutual recognition" of standards. This means that while there may be differences, what is good enough for us should be good enough for you and vice versa. This is the ultimate cake and eat it solution; we are exempt from the stuff we dislike but we still have backstage, access all areas passes that recognise that we are special.

They have been chuckling at this fanciful nonsense in Brussels and elsewhere since well before the Brexit vote but keeping a straight face in the negotiations.

Junkyard Tom

Divide and conquer? Mutual recognition? They're negotiating from the 19th Century.

If those damn continentals don't get the message a flotilla of Britannia's finest Navy schooners will sail this very eve, arriving in mere days, to teach the rascals a lesson in statecraft!

Capt'n Midnight

trellheim wrote: »

Also see this tweet

Worth repeating (daily?) that in Brexit negotiations @MichelBarnier is acting in line with a clear mandate from EU27 leaders and that both they and @Europarl_EN will have to ratify result. Not some sort of solo mission by ‘Brussels’ as some in UK seem to suggest.

and we've seen that Verhoftstatd in the parliament will be hard to get past , never mind the EU27

One side has a clear mandate and has published it's options and timescale,

and the other side has ministers still fighting like ferrets in a sack*





* Ferret reference from 2017 , showing how little has changed.

Infini

I would say at this stage the danger is dwarfed by the sheer level of idiotic stupidity of this whole exercise. There is simply no way Britain is going to get anywhere with this. What I'd hope will happen is as the deadline get's closer that some of the more intelligent element's as well as the pro EU movement there start making the establishment and the rest of the population wake up and cop on to the fact that this stupidity is going to cost them far more if they crash out than if they were to just admit they were wrong about this whole thing and cancel A50. The EU isn't stupid they might be pissed off at all the shenanigans but it's not worth losing a member along with all the godawful mess that it would entail.

They do have a way of turning around and legitimately abandoning this as the leave campaign cheated as well as lied now but they need to stand up to Moggle's Euro Troll Group and tell them to get lost since they have no solution's only impotent rage when they get called out on what they would do. Ultimately if Britain somehow manages to dodge the bullet at the last minute they NEED to look at reforming their country and politic's. The FPTP system has contributed to this but I would also single out the provocative, twisted and deceptive elements of the media there that are little more than propaganda rags at this stage. Cant even stand reading the like's of the english sun and that as everything written there is done in a way to twist the information.

FrancieBrady

Is that it now until people come back from holidays? (Can they afford to take holidays )

Inquitus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is that it now until people come back from holidays? (Can they afford to take holidays )

Yep all that heartache, rebellions, resignations etc. for the Chequer's proposal that was as we all knew dead in the water before it was announced, and then of course they all run off to the beach and bury their heads in the sand for a few more weeks!

McGiver

blinding wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If they break their redlines they will be given more time imo.

They are slow learners but we (the EU) need to soften the impact on us as much as possible and save them from themselves too. A lot of the less well off will suffer because of this shambles.

I don’t think the Eu has shown much concern for the less well off when it is so happy with Mass Immigration of cheap exploitable / slave labour . That sure don’t add up . The British electorate looked around what was going on around them and gave their answer in the referendum . = Bye Bye Eu .

You mean cheap, slave labour, like myself who moved from an 2004 EU enlargement country to the UK and then to Ireland, in both of which I had above average salary? Seriously, this is such a nonsense.

If there was any undercutting of wages by workers from new EU countries in the UK then the issue is with dishonest UK businesses engaging in immoral and illegal activity as well as issue with lack of labour market protection and regulation from the UK gov. Domestic issues.

Not to speak about the fact that UK government (along with Irish and Swedish) chose not to use any transitional provisions to restrict their labour market for workers from newly joined EU countries. Austria and Germany did so for 7 years, the maximum length of the transitional provisions allowed under the EU treaties.
http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=466&langId=en

Leroy42

Infini wrote: »

I would say at this stage the danger is dwarfed by the sheer level of idiotic stupidity of this whole exercise. There is simply no way Britain is going to get anywhere with this. What I'd hope will happen is as the deadline get's closer that some of the more intelligent element's as well as the pro EU movement there start making the establishment and the rest of the population wake up and cop on to the fact that this stupidity is going to cost them far more if they crash out than if they were to just admit they were wrong about this whole thing and cancel A50. The EU isn't stupid they might be pissed off at all the shenanigans but it's not worth losing a member along with all the godawful mess that it would entail.

They do have a way of turning around and legitimately abandoning this as the leave campaign cheated as well as lied now but they need to stand up to Moggle's Euro Troll Group and tell them to get lost since they have no solution's only impotent rage when they get called out on what they would do. Ultimately if Britain somehow manages to dodge the bullet at the last minute they NEED to look at reforming their country and politic's. The FPTP system has contributed to this but I would also single out the provocative, twisted and deceptive elements of the media there that are little more than propaganda rags at this stage. Cant even stand reading the like's of the english sun and that as everything written there is done in a way to twist the information.

I can't see how any of this is going to come about. TM is not strong enough, the Tory party is ripping itself apart, the Labour party is stuck up it own arse it seems. Sections of the media are very much bought into this.

Where is the change going to come from? Even a ref2 isn't the answer because it won't result in any landslide and you will have whatever side loses still unhappy. It took us how many years to get the abortion vote to where it was, and that involved to serious political issues during that time.

Brexit is the UK version of it. I think you are looking at a generational problem (in that it will take a generation to resolve itself at least).

Whilst TM may take the view that she is doomed whatever way she goes, and one might hope that she takes the better road for her country at least, those around her and in her party have no such aspirations. They see Brexit as their ticket to the leadership. To give in now would mean the end of their careers.

And the clock is ticking, and peoples stances are getting more entrenched and the language being used is becoming more and more hostile.

Spook_ie

Here's a question. Given various statements that the UK would never put infrastructure on the border of NI, if there was a no deal Brexit how would the EU and the Irish government propose to not have customs barriers on the EU side?

Leroy42

Spook_ie wrote: »

Here's a question. Given various statements that the UK would never put infrastructure on the border of NI, if there was a no deal Brexit how would the EU and the Irish government propose to not have customs barriers on the EU side?

If there is no deal then borders will have to go up. There is no other way. The only other option is that Ireland has borders to the rest of Europe.

But you are phrasing it wrong. The EU broke down the barriers, it is the UK that are putting it up. The likes of JRM may talk about how they won't put a physical border up, but that is nonsense talk.

The decision to leave the CU an SM was the putting up of barriers. It is the UK putting them up, regardless of you actually physically ends up doing it.

Nate--IRL--

Spook_ie wrote: »

Here's a question. Given various statements that the UK would never put infrastructure on the border of NI, if there was a no deal Brexit how would the EU and the Irish government propose to not have customs barriers on the EU side?

If there is no deal there is a border. The only way to avoid a border is for both sides to reach an agreement.

Nate

Spook_ie

Leroy42 wrote: »

If there is no deal then borders will have to go up. There is no other way. The only other option is that Ireland has borders to the rest of Europe.

But you are phrasing it wrong. The EU broke down the barriers, it is the UK that are putting it up. The likes of JRM may talk about how they won't put a physical border up, but that is nonsense talk.

The decision to leave the CU an SM was the putting up of barriers. It is the UK putting them up, regardless of you actually physically ends up doing it.

Yeah but if TM and co just didn't put up customs posts and instead just randomly stopped vehicles etc. in the UK ( as they could under any perceived threat of terrorism ) what proposals would the EU do to not put up border checks in Ireland.

PeadarCo

Spook_ie wrote:

Here's a question. Given various statements that the UK would never put infrastructure on the border of NI, if there was a no deal Brexit how would the EU and the Irish government propose to not have customs barriers on the EU side?

The UK has to put border infrastructure in place. Simple WTO rules. If decides to hell with the WTO, the minute it sits down with the US, China, Australia they are going to ask for no inspection of any of the goods they export to the UK, because that's what the UK will be giving the EU. So there would be no way to ensure that any of the goods they import are in line with UK law.

Remember this is the same government that said the scheduling of the talks would be the row of the summer but it that issue was decided in a couple of hours. The UK has a track record of saying something and then doing the complete opposite in practice.

PeadarCo

Spook_ie wrote:

Yeah but if TM and co just didn't put up customs posts and instead just randomly stopped vehicles etc. in the UK ( as they could under any perceived threat of terrorism ) what proposals would the EU do to not put up border checks in Ireland.

Ireland will be up border checks if it comes down to it. Irish businesses will demand it. The only reason the soft border works is because of all the legal issues that the EU resolves. Take the EU away those issues reappear.

McGiver

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Spook_ie wrote: »

Here's a question. Given various statements that the UK would never put infrastructure on the border of NI, if there was a no deal Brexit how would the EU and the Irish government propose to not have customs barriers on the EU side?

If there is no deal there is a border. The only way to avoid a border is for both sides to reach an agreement.

Nate

Policed by the EU/RoI. UK theoretically doesn't have to put one up but if it didn't so it would likely be stamped on to death in the WTO if they did control their other borders.

Inquitus

PeadarCo wrote: »

The UK has to put border infrastructure in place. Simple WTO rules. If decides to hell with the WTO, the minute it sits down with the US, China, Australia they are going to ask for no inspection of any of the goods they export to the UK, because that's what the UK will be giving the EU. So there would be no way to ensure that any of the goods they import are in line with UK law.

Remember this is the same government that said the scheduling of the talks would be the row of the summer but it that issue was decided in a couple of hours. The UK has a track record of saying something and then doing the complete opposite in practice.

This is correct, it's explained reasonably well in this article, and also on wiki further below:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/no-tariffs-post-brexit-on-eu-imports-would-break-wto-rules-1.3307267

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_favoured_nation

Leroy42

The EU have to put up a border. Not to check anything going into NI, that is the UK's issue, but for anything coming into ROI from the UK since we could not rely on the standards of that product. If that wasn't done then how can the rest of the EU have faith in the products we send across? So it is either maintain a border with NI or face border checks with the rest of EU.

Where JRM line falls apart is that an open border such as they suggest means that they have nothing to offer when going for these trade talks. They will have no tariffs anyway, so can't offer to reduce them. They will have no ability to check standards, why can't even agree to lower them.

Since so much of Brexit has been based on taking back control, the fact they have been allowed to even mention this as an option without being laughed at is beyond satire.

Enzokk

Another example of the Tories being Tories I suppose.

https://twitter.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1022888550960979969

EU Directive, Wales, NI and Scotland introduced it before England, but lets pretend it was their own making. Oh, and their MEP's seemed to have voted against it in the EU Parliament.

Econ__

Leroy42 wrote: »

The EU have to put up a border. Not to check anything going into NI, that is the UK's issue, but for anything coming into ROI from the UK since we could not rely on the standards of that product. If that wasn't done then how can the rest of the EU have faith in the products we send across? So it is either maintain a border with NI or face border checks with the rest of EU.

Where JRM line falls apart is that an open border such as they suggest means that they have nothing to offer when going for these trade talks. They will have no tariffs anyway, so can't offer to reduce them. They will have no ability to check standards, why can't even agree to lower them.

Since so much of Brexit has been based on taking back control, the fact they have been allowed to even mention this as an option without being laughed at is beyond satire.

Ireland's place in the Single Market would be suspended.

In the short term at least, the border would be too difficult to secure properly. 200+ crossings, the political sensitivities, the infrastructure that would need to be built etc. - it could take a couple of years to sort out. Unrestricted East-West trade with Britain at the expense of the Single Market could end up being the path of least resistance. Remember, 80% of our goods exports that go to EU, do so through the British land bridge. Rearranging these logistics without completely screwing business will take more than a few months.

Securing the backstop followed by UK transition period is essential if we want to avoid getting pulled into the UK's regulatory orbit (at least temporarily) because the Single Market only works for the entire EU if there are proper barriers to protect it from third countries - and that isn't theology on the EU's part, it's just common sense.


It won't happen though - no deal is just too crazy from a British pov and there isn't enough headbanger cabinet ministers/MPs in HoC to just let it happen.

Imreoir2

Econ__ wrote: »

Ireland's place in the Single Market would be suspended.

In the short term at least, the border would be too difficult to secure properly. 200+ crossings, the political sensitivities, the infrastructure that would need to be built etc. - it could take a couple of years to sort out. Unrestricted East-West trade with Britain at the expense of the Single Market could end up being the path of least resistance. Remember, 80% of our goods exports that go to EU, do so through the British land bridge. Rearranging these logistics without completely screwing business will take more than a few months.

Securing the backstop followed by UK transition period is essential if we want to avoid getting pulled into the UK's regulatory orbit (at least temporarily) because the Single Market only works for the entire EU if there are proper barriers to protect it from third countries - and that isn't theology on the EU's part, it's just common sense.


It won't happen though - no deal is just too crazy from a British pov and there isn't enough headbanger cabinet ministers/MPs in HoC to just let it happen.

The EU wont allow Ireland to be forced out of the single market. We will put up a border, and they will give us the slack we need to make it work. There will be significant disruption to our economey as we adjust, but we will adjust.

ancapailldorcha

The whole border question really does put Ireland into a quandary. I don't know how far the EU would actually go to help the Irish economy. We never asked for Brexit on one hand. On the other, it's called the single market for a reason. However, I'm baffled that some people, including a few personal friends seem to think that Ireland should follow Britain out the door to protect its access to the British market completely ignoring the Pharmaceutical companies who have built their manufacturing bases in Ireland to sell to the single market or the tech companies who are here for the same reason along with the low corporation tax rate.

The word of the current British establishment is essentially worthless, not necessarily because it is duplicitous but because it doesn't even know what it wants yet. That we see the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, a man who somewhat resembles a pantomime villain boasting about the damage the UK could wreak upon the Irish economy. This is an appalling, not to mention self-defeating way for the UK to behave towards its closest ally in Europe.

This link from Teagasc goes some way to detailing precisely how important the British market is. I expected higher percentages of goods heading to the UK. I am hoping that Irish farmers can adapt to Brexit and ideally tap into European markets. After all, it wouldn't do to be tied into a single, declining market now would it.

Bigus

If the brits start using the irish land border to stir the pot then the EU can very quickly hit back at Calais /Dover /Rotterdam/ zeebrugger etc etc etc , to exert fierce pressure , back on the UK

Imreoir2

I have seen many Brexiteers, even now, confidently predict that Ireland will have to follow the UK out of the Single Market to protect our access to our "biggest trading partner".

The reality is that our biggest trading partner is the US, and our second biggest is the EU 27. The UK is third. Given the choice between protecting access to our third biggest trading partner, the UK, as it enters a period of economic chaos, or protecting our access to our second biggest trading partner, and the US which relys hugely on our access to the EU market, I would have thought the choice for us should be fairly simple.