Brexit discussion thread IV

Econ__

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The EU wont allow Ireland to be forced out of the single market. We will put up a border, and they will give us the slack we need to make it work. There will be significant disruption to our economey as we adjust, but we will adjust.

How long would it take to adequately secure a border of that complexity to protect the integrity of the Single Market? Quite a while I would say. The entire situation would be a mess - the most likely outcome would be Ireland temporarily suspended from the Single Market.

The campaign for a United Ireland would gather pace very quickly in these type of circumstances, imo. A serious economic shock to NI and Ireland's place in the Single Market compromised would be a serious wave to ride that campaign on.

Inquitus

Econ__ wrote: »

How long would it take to adequately secure a border of that complexity to protect the integrity of the Single Market? Quite a while I would say. The entire situation would be a mess - the most likely outcome would be Ireland temporarily suspended from the Single Market.

Ireland will not be suspended from the Single Market, that is simply not going to happen.

Spanish Eyes

OK, a few questions for those who know more than I do....

On Brexit Day assuming no deal, can UK immediately apply 0% tariffs to imports from EU?

If not, is that because a deal with EU is necessary first? How would that leave existing exporters to UK?

Apologies for my ignorance, but it is a question running around my head for a few days, and I could not find much about this.

I do realise that trade with non EU countries on a crash out will involve WTO and agreements presumably will have to be reached with those countries with which UK already has a deal under EU/Third country agreements. I think!

Bash me if I have been totally stupid. Would still love an answer though! Many thanks.

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OK, a few questions for those who know more than I do....

On Brexit Day assuming no deal, can UK immediately apply 0% tariffs to imports from EU?

If not, is that because a deal with EU is necessary first? How would that leave existing exporters to UK?

Apologies for my ignorance, but it is a question running around my head for a few days, and I could not find much about this.

I do realise that trade with non EU countries on a crash out will involve WTO and agreements presumably will have to be reached with those countries with which UK already has a deal under EU/Third country agreements. I think!

Bash me if I have been totally stupid. Would still love an answer though! Many thanks.

If the UK applies 0% Tariffs to the EU without a trade agreement it must also apply 0% Tariffs to all other WTO nations. Essentially under most favoured nation WTO rules, you must give all members of the WTO the same conditions as the most favoured nation(s) you do not have a trade agreement with, so in this case all WTO nations get the same terms as the EU does.

Imreoir2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OK, a few questions for those who know more than I do....

On Brexit Day assuming no deal, can UK immediately apply 0% tariffs to imports from EU?

If not, is that because a deal with EU is necessary first? How would that leave existing exporters to UK?

Apologies for my ignorance, but it is a question running around my head for a few days, and I could not find much about this.

I do realise that trade with non EU countries on a crash out will involve WTO and agreements presumably will have to be reached with those countries with which UK already has a deal under EU/Third country agreements. I think!

Bash me if I have been totally stupid. Would still love an answer though! Many thanks.

AFAIK the UK could decide to apply 0% tarrif to the EU, but in the absence of a trade deal, that would become their most favoured nation tarrif rate that every other WTO member could insist on. This would cause serious problems for UK manafacturers.

The EU would also not be obliged to follow suit. In that case, EU imports to the UK would be tarrif free while UK exports to the EU have tarrifs on them. Hard to see that being a viable solution for the UK.

Spanish Eyes

Inquitus wrote: »

If the UK applies 0% Tariffs to the EU without a trade agreement it must also apply 0% Tariffs to all other WTO nations. Essentially under most favoured nation WTO rules, you must give all members of the WTO the same conditions as the most favoured nation(s) you do not have a trade agreement with, so in this case all WTO nations get the same terms as the EU does.

Thank you, that's a bit clearer alright.

But the question remains, what happens to current EU exporters to UK without a deal? Same as UK exports to EU I suppose if the common rule book is not accepted by EU.

It is all just so daft and unnecessary isn't it?

Hoping they see sense, but you couldn't bank on the Tories to act in any manner other than favourable to their party I think. Damn the country in the process.

Spanish Eyes

Imreoir2 wrote: »

AFAIK the UK could decide to apply 0% tarrif to the EU, but in the absence of a trade deal, that would become their most favoured nation tarrif rate that every other WTO member could insist on. This would cause serious problems for UK manafacturers.

The EU would also not be obliged to follow suit. In that case, EU imports to the UK would be tarrif free while UK exports to the EU have tarrifs on them. Hard to see that being a viable solution for the UK.

Thank you.

Great to have it condensed so simply for people like me.

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Thank you, that's a bit clearer alright.

But the question remains, what happens to current EU exporters to UK without a deal? Same as UK exports to EU I suppose if the common rule book is not accepted by EU.

It is all just so daft and unnecessary isn't it?

Hoping they see sense, but you couldn't bank on the Tories to act in any manner other than favourable to their party I think. Damn the country in the process.

Ireland (and the EU) will have to impose border checks and apply their tariffs and rules to imports from the UK, this will mean the EU can export to the UK along with the rest of the WTO at 0% Tariffs and no checks, but the UK will export to the EU, and the rest of the WTO, and be charged applicable tariffs.

Econ__

Inquitus wrote: »

Ireland will not be suspended from the Single Market, that is simply not going to happen.

It will if it cannot adequately secure its border within a certain time frame.

trellheim

It will if it cannot adequately secure its border within a certain time frame.

A grant will probably be available to do precisely this.

Capt'n Midnight

In case anyone was wondering, from trade volumes, NI need us more than we need them. Politics and people would be a different story.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/report-reveals-extent-of-north-s-dependence-on-trade-with-the-republic-1.3539430

In 2016, 30 per cent of Northern Ireland’s exports – £2 billion (€2.3 billion) – were sent to the Republic; a much greater percentage than the goods going the other way. Just 1 per cent of the Republic’s exports, worth £1 billion, went to Northern Ireland.

TBH I'd expect better of the IT since the figure is a bit more than 1%

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-biun/biun/trade/

Exports to Great Britain accounted for 12.3% of total goods exported in 2015 while exports to Northern Ireland accounted for 1.6%.
...
Imports into Ireland from Great Britain accounted for 24.1% of total goods imported in 2015 while imports from Northern Ireland accounted for 1.6%.

Calina

Econ__ wrote: »

Inquitus wrote: »

Ireland will not be suspended from the Single Market, that is simply not going to happen.

It will if it cannot adequately secure its border within a certain time frame.

Can you provide a legal reference for this? What treaty article?

Panrich

I’m sure that quite a few of us work for UK based companies selling services into Ireland. What is the status of these companies ability to continue to serve existing contracts signed with Irish companies in a post Brexit no deal scenario?

First Up

Panrich wrote: »

I’m sure that quite a few of us work for UK based companies selling services into Ireland. What is the status of these companies ability to continue to serve existing contracts signed with Irish companies in a post Brexit no deal scenario?

Ireland will apply the EU's common external tariff under WTO terms. Your company and their Irish customers would be wise to check what they would be.

Panrich

First Up wrote: »

Ireland will apply the EU's common external tariff under WTO terms. Your company and their Irish customers would be wise to check what they would be.

Thank you. I’d read somewhere that WTO didn’t apply for services so was a bit unsure how things will play out. There are several people that I know that will be affected by this. This whole thing can become a real mess with the amount of Irish ( EU) data stored on servers in the UK as well.

Nody

Econ__ wrote: »

How long would it take to adequately secure a border of that complexity to protect the integrity of the Single Market? Quite a while I would say.

And you would be wrong on that one as you assume as does so many other Irish people for some reason that every single crossing needs to be enabled for trade. You don't enable 200+ crossings for trade; instead you enable 10 or 20 crossings for trade and block the rest for traffic reaching Ireland. For example you can close down a road with a field that's 10m deep and going over the fields of Czech hedgehogs (image below) for example and patrol past the area a few times a day. That's good enough to stop trucks of goods coming past and you can have that in place in a very short time. You don't even need to put it directly on the border but simply before the road connects with anything else (to handle some of the roads going back and forth over the border without blocking them for no reason). Keep in mind that the border requirement is not a 10m concrete wall with 100% guarantee to stop anything to be up on day 1 but that the border is protected.


Picture by By Lukáš Malý - Own work, Public Domain

Rhineshark

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

In case anyone was wondering, from trade volumes, NI need us more than we need them. Politics and people would be a different story.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/report-reveals-extent-of-north-s-dependence-on-trade-with-the-republic-1.3539430TBH I'd expect better of the IT since the figure is a bit more than 1%

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-biun/biun/trade/

I rather suspect the biggest issue after the socio-political issues on the border won't be direct trade per se, it'll be sorting out the tangled snarl of the all-island agricultural system with a border smacked through it.

How in the giddy aunts are we going to untangle that?

Regarding shutting down crossings, that is going to play merry hell with people and the border town's again (poor sods) - and cross border emergency services.

zapitastas

Nody wrote: »

And you would be wrong on that one as you assume as does so many other Irish people for some reason that every single crossing needs to be enabled for trade. You don't enable 200+ crossings for trade; instead you enable 10 or 20 crossings for trade and block the rest for traffic reaching Ireland. For example you can close down a road with a field that's 10m deep and going over the fields of Czech hedgehogs (image below) for example and patrol past the area a few times a day. That's good enough to stop trucks of goods coming past and you can have that in place in a very short time. You don't even need to put it directly on the border but simply before the road connects with anything else (to handle some of the roads going back and forth over the border without blocking them for no reason). Keep in mind that the border requirement is not a 10m concrete wall with 100% guarantee to stop anything to be up on day 1 but that the border is protected.


Picture by By Lukáš Malý - Own work, Public Domain

Closing down roads did not work in the past with heavily armed British troops trying their hand at it. Is unlikely to work now. A lot of the roads were closed during the day and reopened by locals at night. Suggesting it is an easy process displays a lack of understanding of trying to impose a border on communities that never wanted one

Igotadose

Deleted User wrote: »

Well one of the key issues regarding leaving is regulations.. The UK will now have its own "This is medicine | This is not medicine." system which while copying the EU it's currently been part of, could have a delay initially in approving a myriad of medicines. They have done no prep for this sort of thing.

I'd be much more worried about a privatized NHS rushing to approve drugs with insufficient testing.

First Up

Panrich wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Ireland will apply the EU's common external tariff under WTO terms. Your company and their Irish customers would be wise to check what they would be.

Thank you. I’d read somewhere that WTO didn’t apply for services so was a bit unsure how things will play out. There are several people that I know that will be affected by this. This whole thing can become a real mess with the amount of Irish ( EU) data stored on servers in the UK as well.

I don't know what your business is but I presume the owners know how to check under what terms of trade the business is conducted.

Nody

zapitastas wrote: »

Closing down roads did not work in the past with heavily armed British troops trying their hand at it. Is unlikely to work now. A lot of the roads were closed during the day and reopened by locals at night. Suggesting it is an easy process displays a lack of understanding of trying to impose a border on communities that never wanted one

You are making a string of assumptions from the conflict which are no longer true.

For starters there are no guards that you can have look the other way (pick your poison why from being told to, bribes, sympathises, threats etc.) in place. You can't move them around with a tractor or similar but need heavy duty lifters to get them out of the way nor can you really blow them up as they tilt over and hence you're left with a big lifter or torches. By having a couple of patrols a day going past that is not going to be a quick and normal route through them.

Secondly the border is no longer about IRA and their counterparts trying to smuggle weapons in to keep the struggle alive for unification; in fact the border if anything helps push unification faster. It's an economical border and since UK abdicate setting up any controls you have a essentially risk free way for both sides to make their money which does not involve smuggling over a closed border. Why take the risk to smuggle into Ireland if UK offers you more profit at zero risk? Once again the current gangs are in it for the money and risk free money is always the best money; esp. if you can make it on booze, tobacco and other high VAT/tax products.

Third you assume that the border needs to stop anything and everything 24/7; that's not the case nor requirement. You can walk over plenty of European third party borders if you're in the middle of no where. Hence by stopping lorry traffic you've achieved the primary goal already and can work out a longer term plan if needed.

FrancieBrady

Nody wrote: »

You are making a string of assumptions from the conflict which are no longer true.

For starters there are no guards that you can have look the other way (pick your poison why from being told to, bribes, sympathises, threats etc.) in place. You can't move them around with a tractor or similar but need heavy duty lifters to get them out of the way nor can you really blow them up as they tilt over and hence you're left with a big lifter or torches. By having a couple of patrols a day going past that is not going to be a quick and normal route through them.

Secondly the border is no longer about IRA and their counterparts trying to smuggle weapons in to keep the struggle alive for unification; in fact the border if anything helps push unification faster. It's an economical border and since UK abdicate setting up any controls you have a essentially risk free way for both sides to make their money which does not involve smuggling over a closed border. Why take the risk to smuggle into Ireland if UK offers you more profit at zero risk? Once again the current gangs are in it for the money and risk free money is always the best money; esp. if you can make it on booze, tobacco and other high VAT/tax products.

Third you assume that the border needs to stop anything and everything 24/7; that's not the case nor requirement. You can walk over plenty of European third party borders if you're in the middle of no where. Hence by stopping lorry traffic you've achieved the primary goal already and can work out a longer term plan if needed.

What scenario plays out if one of these patrols is attacked by dissidents.

What do you think will be the response for the next patrol due to go out? Would you as a senior customs officer send them out?

It all gets very messy then as they will have to be protected, that immediately starts an escalation of security...then god only knows what we embark on.

I live on this border and this is the huge fear here.

Jim2007

zapitastas wrote: »

Closing down roads did not work in the past with heavily armed British troops trying their hand at it. Is unlikely to work now. A lot of the roads were closed during the day and reopened by locals at night. Suggesting it is an easy process displays a lack of understanding of trying to impose a border on communities that never wanted one

This is simply nonsense, because the circumstances are completely different, the British army was not there to act as customs officers, just in case you did not realise that.

For the most part the border would operate most likely like the Swiss border, where people have FMOP rights but it is not in the customs union. Most minor roads remain open and are only randomly checked because they are not interested in petty smuggling, if however they find exporters using such road very high penalties are applied. Only major roads and rail are controlled, but only for customs purpose, so typically most cars will be waved through.

There will be protests that will have to be addressed, but nothing on the scale you seem to be envisaging.

Jim2007

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What scenario plays out if one of these patrols is attacked by dissidents.

They are not dissidents, they are terrorists and the full force of the law on both sides of the border should be fully applied in such circumstances.

FrancieBrady

Jim2007 wrote: »

They are not dissidents, they are terrorists and the full force of the law on both sides of the border should be fully applied in such circumstances.

Great. Well done.

So how do you protect the next batch of customs officers you send out?

Are you aware what happened to customs posts as the last conflict ramped up?

Capt'n Midnight

Panrich wrote: »

Thank you. I’d read somewhere that WTO didn’t apply for services so was a bit unsure how things will play out. There are several people that I know that will be affected by this. This whole thing can become a real mess with the amount of Irish ( EU) data stored on servers in the UK as well.

It depends on the services too. Some would be unaffected. Others that rely on data protection or passporting would be effectively blocked until if/when new arrangements have been agreed and put in place.

Panrich

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What scenario plays out if one of these patrols is attacked by dissidents.

What do you think will be the response for the next patrol due to go out? Would you as a senior customs officer send them out?

It all gets very messy then as they will have to be protected, that immediately starts an escalation of security...then god only knows what we embark on.

I live on this border and this is the huge fear here.

There is a slight nuance in this border in that it is economic not political and would be imposed by Ireland/EU so the ‘fight’ will be in the republic and the targets will be Irish officials and not British.

I’m not sure what difference that would make to some of those who make a nice living out of the border smuggling trade or their minions. To these characters, a hard border or indeed a United Ireland puts them out of business.

Econ__

Jim2007 wrote: »

This is simply nonsense, because the circumstances are completely different, the British army was not there to act as customs officers, just in case you did not realise that.

For the most part the border would operate most likely like the Swiss border, where people have FMOP rights but it is not in the customs union. Most minor roads remain open and are only randomly checked because they are not interested in petty smuggling, if however they find exporters using such road very high penalties are applied. Only major roads and rail are controlled, but only for customs purpose, so typically most cars will be waved through.

There will be protests that will have to be addressed, but nothing on the scale you seem to be envisaging.

It would not operate like the Swiss border, there would be many more checks. It would have to be the hardest border of the EU.

The Swiss are in the EU's regulatory orbit (with ECJ oversight), so the standard of their goods can be trusted. Customs checks account for only ~30% of all checks between the EU and a third country.

FrancieBrady

Panrich wrote: »

There is a slight nuance in this border in that it is economic not political and would be imposed by Ireland/EU so the ‘fight’ will be in the republic and the targets will be Irish officials and not British.

I’m not sure what difference that would make to some of those who make a nice living out of the border smuggling trade or their minions. To these characters, a hard border or indeed a United Ireland puts them out of business.

It won't be attacked by smugglers (they are probably waiting with bated breath for it to happen) it will be attacked by those who oppose partition from where ever it comes.

Nody

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What scenario plays out if one of these patrols is attacked by dissidents.

First of all the border is checked by the military; not the customs agents who will be at the 10 to 20 defined crossings. If the military spots something odd they call in the agents as needed and if a squad of military trained people can't handle a group of wannabe terrorists then you might want to reconsider how they are trained in the first place.

Secondly what would happen; the exact same would happen as it does today when someone goes after a military or police force person in the north. That has not caused an all out escalation either; ergo you're viewing it with 70s glasses again expecting a political side which is not there.

And third; why would they bother to attack a patrol? Because they want to cause a war? Not going to happen. Because it would run into their smuggling ring? Sorry but risk free already to smuggle north so why would you want that risk to do it?