Brexit discussion thread IV

FrancieBrady

Nody wrote: »

First of all the border is checked by the military; not the customs agents who will be at the 10 to 20 defined crossings. If the military spots something odd they call in the agents as needed and if a squad of military trained people can't handle a group of wannabe terrorists then you might want to reconsider how they are trained in the first place.

Secondly what would happen; the exact same would happen as it does today when someone goes after a military or police force person in the north. That has not caused an all out escalation either; ergo you're viewing it with 70s glasses again expecting a political side which is not there.

And third; why would they bother to attack a patrol? Because they want to cause a war? Not going to happen. Because it would run into their smuggling ring? Sorry but risk free already to smuggle north so why would you want that risk to do it?

There is in that a very dangerous (and wrong) assumption that smugglers and those who will want to use this to destabilise are one and the same.

Criminally dangerous imo. The fact is that there are those who will view a re-imposed border as being back to square one, the 70's - 20's or whatever you wish to call it.

Panrich

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is in that a very dangerous (and wrong) assumption that smugglers and those who will want to use this to destabilise are one and the same.

Criminally dangerous imo. The fact is that there are those who will view a re-imposed border as being back to square one, the 70's - 20's or whatever you wish to call it.

Francie the border will be imposed by the Irish government and the EU because we have no choice if a no deal Brexit comes to pass. The only way to remove this imposed border is by NI becoming part of the SM/CU or a deal is struck with Westminster.

Now can you explain how attacking an EU/Irish patrol will put pressure on the British Government to bring them to the table or increase the likelihood of unionists agreeing to a United Ireland?

I’m not seeing the logic here. I doubt that the UK will have visible infrastructure or patrols to attack on their side.

murphaph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What scenario plays out if one of these patrols is attacked by dissidents.

What do you think will be the response for the next patrol due to go out? Would you as a senior customs officer send them out?

It all gets very messy then as they will have to be protected, that immediately starts an escalation of security...then god only knows what we embark on.

I live on this border and this is the huge fear here.

There's little alternative other than throwing our lot in with the little Englander and becoming a de facto province of the UK.

It's crap. It's the UK's fault. We must deal with it as best we can as an EU member state. Just like the UK, we don't get to pick and choose from a menu.

Dissidents who target (especially) southern customs officers should be dealt with using the full force of the law. A handful of dissidents cannot steer the economic course of the 5 million of us who don't support their violence. The EU may provide extra funding for new policing units.

One would hope that the number of "safe houses" for such people would be much reduced since the heydays of IRA violence on the border.

zapitastas

Panrich wrote: »

Francie the border will be imposed by the Irish government and the EU because we have no choice if a no deal Brexit comes to pass. The only way to remove this imposed border is by NI becoming part of the SM/CU or a deal is struck with Westminster.

Now can you explain how attacking an EU/Irish patrol will put pressure on the British Government to bring them to the table or increase the likelihood of unionists agreeing to a United Ireland?

I’m not seeing the logic here. I doubt that the UK will have visible infrastructure or patrols to attack on their side.

It is pretty naive to think that any border infrastructure will remain in place. They can't even keep the welcome to northern Ireland signs in place. Well some are but they are riddled with bullet holes

murphaph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Great. Well done.

So how do you protect the next batch of customs officers you send out?

Are you aware what happened to customs posts as the last conflict ramped up?

To be brutally honest, Ireland was a sh1thole with little to lose back then. Nowadays there's a booming economy, largely reliant on us being seamlessly connected to the single market.

There would be effectively zero tolerance for any attempt to force Ireland into economic union with NI and by extension the UK so it is really not the same.

murphaph

Econ__ wrote: »

It would not operate like the Swiss border, there would be many more checks. It would have to be the hardest border of the EU.

The Swiss are in the EU's regulatory orbit (with ECJ oversight), so the standard of their goods can be trusted. Customs checks account for only ~30% of all checks between the EU and a third country.

Agreed. This would probably have to be the hardest border the EU has. The eastern borders are in sparsely populated regions with relatively few crossings to police.

The UK is more able to import all sorts of rubbish from around d the world and the EU needs to keep that stuff out. The UK is already in trouble over counterfeit Chinese rubbish being imported without sufficient checks!

FrancieBrady

Panrich wrote: »

. I doubt that the UK will have visible infrastructure or patrols to attack on their side.

I think that is the height of naivety. Of course the British will need to monitor if not inspect what is coming across.

I honestly think that as we approach the critical juncture here that Dublin has to be more strident in invoking the GFA and in pressuring those who are advocating Brexit against the wishes of the majority of northern Ireland.

We need to hear Dublin saying to the British that under the terms of the GFA that the people of northern Ireland be polled on whether they wish to stay in the CU and SM as has been offered by the EU.
Dublin was seen to abandon those who identify as Irish before, taking that line would demonstrate that they haven't done it again. It is time to stop being afraid of upsetting a minority of DUP fundamentalists because now, more than ever before, I think moderate unionism will listen and choose the sensible way out of this predicament.
The situation is unprecedented, it is time for unprecedented initiatives.

judeboy101

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think that is the height of naivety. Of course the British will need to monitor if not inspect what is coming across.

I honestly think that as we approach the critical juncture here that Dublin has to be more strident in invoking the GFA and in pressuring those who are advocating Brexit against the wishes of the majority of northern Ireland.

We need to hear Dublin saying to the British that under the terms of the GFA that the people of northern Ireland be polled on whether they wish to stay in the CU and SM as has been offered by the EU.
Dublin was seen to abandon those who identify as Irish before, taking that line would demonstrate that they haven't done it again. It is time to stop being afraid of upsetting a minority of DUP fundamentalists because now, more than ever before, I think moderate unionism will listen and choose the sensible way out of this predicament.
The situation is unprecedented, it is time for unprecedented initiatives.

No such a thing as moderate unionism. That's like saying a payday alcoholic or a weekend diabetic.

Nate--IRL--

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think that is the height of naivety. Of course the British will need to monitor if not inspect what is coming across.

I honestly think that as we approach the critical juncture here that Dublin has to be more strident in invoking the GFA and in pressuring those who are advocating Brexit against the wishes of the majority of northern Ireland.

We need to hear Dublin saying to the British that under the terms of the GFA that the people of northern Ireland be polled on whether they wish to stay in the CU and SM as has been offered by the EU.
Dublin was seen to abandon those who identify as Irish before, taking that line would demonstrate that they haven't done it again. It is time to stop being afraid of upsetting a minority of DUP fundamentalists because now, more than ever before, I think moderate unionism will listen and choose the sensible way out of this predicament.
The situation is unprecedented, it is time for unprecedented initiatives.

Francie what is your hurry? Give it 3 or 4 years, then push for a poll. The chance of success will only rise as time passes, why shoot your bolt so soon?

Nate

Water John

I think this has to play itself out to Oct/Dec via Barnier. Irish Govn't holds it's public fire, whilst working hard behind the scenes. For us to go strident at this point would play to JRM & co. Bide our time.

FrancieBrady

judeboy101 wrote: »

No such a thing as moderate unionism.

Of course there is. And it is moderating all the time.

FrancieBrady

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Francie what is your hurry? Give it 3 or 4 years, then push for a poll. The chance of success will only rise as time passes, why shoot your bolt so soon?

Nate

Because I am not talking about a UI per se, I am talking about stopping a slide back to conflict, which supersedes any dream/wish of a UI in my mind. Keep northern Ireland in the SM and CU and negate the need for a border. Then take it from there.

Nate--IRL--

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Because I am not talking about a UI per se, I am talking about stopping a slide back to conflict, which supersedes any dream/wish of a UI in my mind. Keep northern Ireland in the SM and CU and negate the need for a border. Then take it from there.

OK I see your logic now. The way I see it keeping NI in the SM will kill off a border poll for a decade or two, it simply won't be necessary in the minds of most. In fact pushing for a border poll now might lead to hardening of attitudes making retention of SM membership more difficult to achieve.

With a Crash Out, everything changes, the Border poll becomes an imperative, but, only after the effects of the crash out are truly felt. The initial impetus must come from within NI.

Of the above, I would rather SM and a Border poll in a few decades, rather than a crash out and Poll in 5 years.

Nate

FrancieBrady

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

OK I see your logic now. The way I see it keeping NI in the SM will kill off a border poll for a decade or two, it simply won't be necessary in the minds of most. In fact pushing for a border poll now might lead to hardening of attitudes making retention of SM membership more difficult to achieve.

With a Crash Out, everything changes, the Border poll becomes an imperative, but, only after the effects of the crash out are truly felt. The initial impetus must come from within NI.

Of the above, I would rather SM and a Border poll in a few decades, rather than a crash out and Poll in 5 years.

Nate

The imperative has to be stopping a slide back to conflict. And that is going to take more balls than Dublin has shown so far.

I don't wish to drag this fine thread off topic, so I will leave it there.

bilston

judeboy101 wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think that is the height of naivety. Of course the British will need to monitor if not inspect what is coming across.

I honestly think that as we approach the critical juncture here that Dublin has to be more strident in invoking the GFA and in pressuring those who are advocating Brexit against the wishes of the majority of northern Ireland.

We need to hear Dublin saying to the British that under the terms of the GFA that the people of northern Ireland be polled on whether they wish to stay in the CU and SM as has been offered by the EU.
Dublin was seen to abandon those who identify as Irish before, taking that line would demonstrate that they haven't done it again. It is time to stop being afraid of upsetting a minority of DUP fundamentalists because now, more than ever before, I think moderate unionism will listen and choose the sensible way out of this predicament.
The situation is unprecedented, it is time for unprecedented initiatives.

No such a thing as moderate unionism. That's like saying a payday alcoholic or a weekend diabetic.

You see attitudes like yours just put me off a United Ireland. You probably don't even realise it, but your attitudes are the biggest obstacle to moderate Unionism (I 100% assure you it exists) accepting a United Ireland.

badtoro

Problem?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/995714/brexit-news-theresa-may-Matteo-Salvini-italy-uk-chequers-white-paper

Water John

He's a member of the Far Right club. Italy is a basket case itself, politically. Don't think he'll get too much traction.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Water John wrote: »

He's a member of the Far Right club. Italy is a basket case itself, politically. Don't think he'll get too much traction.

In what way are the Italian colilition Government a basket case?

IMO they will get increased support over the next few years

Econ__

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

OK I see your logic now. The way I see it keeping NI in the SM will kill off a border poll for a decade or two, it simply won't be necessary in the minds of most. In fact pushing for a border poll now might lead to hardening of attitudes making retention of SM membership more difficult to achieve.

With a Crash Out, everything changes, the Border poll becomes an imperative, but, only after the effects of the crash out are truly felt. The initial impetus must come from within NI.

Of the above, I would rather SM and a Border poll in a few decades, rather than a crash out and Poll in 5 years.

Nate

Disagree.

NI would only be in the SM for goods, not services - and they will face the same frictions in trading with Britain that all other EU members will face.

With the backstop activated - it will make economic sense for NI to reunite.

What worries the Brits the most in all of this is the implications for Scotland and the independence movement there. If you follow British politics you will see the SNP have a very keen interest in the NI border and they like to argue that the backstop is needed to protect the GFA. They know this is entire situation is potentially a huge anchor for their cause.

trellheim

Guys please remember the CTA predates the EEC and the EU.

Any border would not be for people , it would be for goods and services.

Leroy42

But surely we shouldn't be looking at leaving NI enter into a hard border on the possible future of a UI?

That is no better then the BRexiteers are selling the UK. Pain now, and for many, on the potential, maybe, at some time in the future, of getting something.

I trust that our government is pressing the need to adhere to the GFA behind the scenes, I have no reason to doubt that they have no thought of this issues. They have played their hand fairly well up till now.

But I agree in that we should not be simply letting the UK move NI away from the GFA as it suits Brexit. The narrative seems to be that it solely up to the UK to make that decision, an IMO, that is against the GFA.

An Ciarraioch

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

In what way are the Italian colilition Government a basket case?

IMO they will get increased support over the next few years

Where Lega have been picking up support is over the migrant crisis, but when they and Five Star have whispered about the euro, public opinion was firmly against them:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-euro-poll/polls-show-most-italians-want-to-stay-in-euro-idUSKCN1IW0MT

Leo was in Rome last week to keep Conte informed about Irish issues, and if the Czechs are on board, the Italians are even less likely to break ranks.

First Up

trellheim wrote: »

Guys please remember the CTA predates the EEC and the EU.

Any border would not be for people , it would be for goods and services.

Predates has nothing to do with it. New laws supercede old ones.

The CTA and SM were legally consistent; Brexit isn't consistent with either. If uncontrolled immigration from the EU was the main motivation for Brexit, a CTA with an EU member makes no sense.

CelticRambler

trellheim wrote: »

Guys please remember the CTA predates the EEC and the EU.

And the British Government tried to get rid of it back in 2008. Three years of negotiations later, the British and Irish governments signed a joint statement which was (and still is) "not intended to create legally binding obligations, nor to create or confer any right, privilege or benefit on any person or party, private or public" (clause 8)



So while it is correct to state that a Common Travel Area between the two islands existed for decades before the creation of the EEC/EU, the Common Travel Area that we have at present was defined within the context of the post-Maastrich, post-Lisbon, post-Dublin treaties of the EU.

An Ciarraioch

Of course, if a hard Border did make the CTA untenable, the sole advantage would be the possibility of joining Schengen, even if we wouldn't have any geographic links to the rest of the zone.

An Ciarraioch

More updates on WTO - NZ beef and lamb producers speak out against the tariff quota split proposal:

https://www.globalmeatnews.com/Article/2018/07/27/New-Zealand-opposes-EU-and-UK-s-quota-split-proposal

Anthracite

badtoro wrote: »

Problem?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/995714/brexit-news-theresa-may-Matteo-Salvini-italy-uk-chequers-white-paper

Sounds like he's encouraging them to crash out.

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, a Pew Research poll makes intriguing, if unsurprising, reading - UK attitudes to the EU differ by age, and centre-right voters are notably more sceptical than the centre-left:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/07/24/despite-brexit-negotiations-most-in-uk-see-eu-membership-as-good-for-their-economy/

Leroy42

badtoro wrote: »

Problem?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/995714/brexit-news-theresa-may-Matteo-Salvini-italy-uk-chequers-white-paper

I would give that the same level of credibility as the other countless articles exclaiming "The EU in Turmoil", "Euro about to crash", "TM delivers fatal blow to EU position", "Farage humiliates EU", "EU facing meltdown over fisheries threat" etc etc (I have paraphrased as I'm not going to bother going back to get the actual articles.)

I read it as the EU leaders don't want to be seen to be against the UK, they want to deal with them after Brexit. So Italy itself has no issue, but they also understand that the EU must protect itself and its members.

Jim2007

trellheim wrote: »

Guys please remember the CTA predates the EEC and the EU.

Whether it predates the EEC or not is irrelevant. The agreement exists because of a schedule to the EU treaties and is actual no binding.