Brexit discussion thread IV

Silent Running

Nody wrote: »

You are making a string of assumptions from the conflict which are no longer true.

For starters there are no guards that you can have look the other way (pick your poison why from being told to, bribes, sympathises, threats etc.) in place. You can't move them around with a tractor or similar but need heavy duty lifters to get them out of the way nor can you really blow them up as they tilt over and hence you're left with a big lifter or torches. By having a couple of patrols a day going past that is not going to be a quick and normal route through them.

Secondly the border is no longer about IRA and their counterparts trying to smuggle weapons in to keep the struggle alive for unification; in fact the border if anything helps push unification faster. It's an economical border and since UK abdicate setting up any controls you have a essentially risk free way for both sides to make their money which does not involve smuggling over a closed border. Why take the risk to smuggle into Ireland if UK offers you more profit at zero risk? Once again the current gangs are in it for the money and risk free money is always the best money; esp. if you can make it on booze, tobacco and other high VAT/tax products.

Third you assume that the border needs to stop anything and everything 24/7; that's not the case nor requirement. You can walk over plenty of European third party borders if you're in the middle of no where. Hence by stopping lorry traffic you've achieved the primary goal already and can work out a longer term plan if needed.

Those things look like they could easily be moved aside with a telehandler. There are loads of telehandlers around nowadays. It would take about two minutes to clear a path for a vehicle. If there is a good reason to (smuggling) there would be be a way. Securing the border would not be easy and would turn into a game of cat and mouse.

murphaph

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Of course, if a hard Border did make the CTA untenable, the sole advantage would be the possibility of joining Schengen, even if we wouldn't have any geographic links to the rest of the zone.

I see no chance of us instigating passport checks along the border. It's already a shame that we will possibly have to check goods coming south without asking Irish citizens in NI to show a passport. The EU will not ask us to. We won't be able to join Schengen unless NI does, either in its own right or as part of a UI at some point in the future. I wish we could as I live in Berlin.

Gerry T

murphaph wrote:

I see no chance of us instigating passport checks along the border. It's already a shame that we will possibly have to check goods coming south without asking Irish citizens in NI to show a passport. The EU will not ask us to. We won't be able to join Schengen unless NI does, either in its own right or as part of a UI at some point in the future. I wish we could as I live in Berlin.

But someone gets into UK from say China. That person would need checking at an EU crossing, so it's either at point of entry into NI from UK or at NI border with the South.

An Ciarraioch

RTE interview with Pascal Lamy, the head of the WTO - he reiterates that there's no avoiding a hard Border if there's a hard Brexit:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0729/981772-brexit-pascal-lamy-no-deal/

Leroy42

This, I think, is a great sum up of Farage and the entire Brexit position.

They have literally no idea what Brexit actually means outside of the slogans.

https://twitter.com/JamieMcGrath__/status/1023567403974840325

badtoro

Leroy42 wrote: »

This, I think, is a great sum up of Farage and the entire Brexit position.

Wow, I mean how did that fella convince anyone of anything.

Think when distilled down the message from farage is "I'm alright Jack but the rest of you mugs are screwed".

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

This, I think, is a great sum up of Farage and the entire Brexit position.

"We'll get vets to come and work in Britain, and pay them to do so." :eek: Does that mean all the EU-trained vets, exercising their rights of FoM and mutual recognition of qualifications, are currently working in the UK for free? :rolleyes:



The image of Britain having to beg the Africans for some cheap food is just bizarre, though. They'd probably be better off asking the Chinese, though, as I'm pretty sure they've been securing the rights to most of Africa's output for their own population.

murphaph

Gerry T wrote: »

But someone gets into UK from say China. That person would need checking at an EU crossing, so it's either at point of entry into NI from UK or at NI border with the South.

No because immigration is still a national competence. Some EU countries are also Schengen in which case competences are pooled and signatories must police the external Schengen frontier. As long as we don't join Schengen it's up to us how we do it.

Anthracite

In truth, I'd say Farage was being distracted by a producer talking in his ear. He usually has no issue spouting platitudes in exactly this situation.

An Ciarraioch

The Institute of Economic Affairs (a libertarian economic thinktank) is exposed as facilitating meetings between UK ministers and US lobbyists:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/29/rightwing-thinktank-ministerial-access-potential-us-donors-insitute-of-economic-affairs-brexit

blinding

The Mainland Brits ain’t much concerned about the 6 counties and much less so about the 26 Counties . Both are very Small Beer to the Island of Britain .

flutered

Panrich wrote: »

There is a slight nuance in this border in that it is economic not political and would be imposed by Ireland/EU so the ‘fight’ will be in the republic and the targets will be Irish officials and not British.

I’m not sure what difference that would make to some of those who make a nice living out of the border smuggling trade or their minions. To these characters, a hard border or indeed a United Ireland puts them out of business.

any border will act as does the proverbial red rag to a bull

Junkyard Tom

blinding wrote: »

The Mainland Brits ain’t much concerned about the 6 counties and much less so about the 26 Counties.

We know that. That's exactly why the backstop was put in place. Those of us who are cognisant of our history know only too well what the British state is capable of when it comes to Ireland.

It was all too predictable that the British would be happy to point the Brexit-gun at us. Luckily the border-backstop means the British are pointing the gun at their own head.

flutered

Nody wrote: »

First of all the border is checked by the military; not the customs agents who will be at the 10 to 20 defined crossings. If the military spots something odd they call in the agents as needed and if a squad of military trained people can't handle a group of wannabe terrorists then you might want to reconsider how they are trained in the first place.

Secondly what would happen; the exact same would happen as it does today when someone goes after a military or police force person in the north. That has not caused an all out escalation either; ergo you're viewing it with 70s glasses again expecting a political side which is not there.

And third; why would they bother to attack a patrol? Because they want to cause a war? Not going to happen. Because it would run into their smuggling ring? Sorry but risk free already to smuggle north so why would you want that risk to do it?

you are not making allowances for the nutjobs of all shades and discriptions

flutered

Panrich wrote: »

Francie the border will be imposed by the Irish government and the EU because we have no choice if a no deal Brexit comes to pass. The only way to remove this imposed border is by NI becoming part of the SM/CU or a deal is struck with Westminster.

Now can you explain how attacking an EU/Irish patrol will put pressure on the British Government to bring them to the table or increase the likelihood of unionists agreeing to a United Ireland?

I’m not seeing the logic here. I doubt that the UK will have visible infrastructure or patrols to attack on their side.

i believe in the event of a crash out, it will be up to the uk to set up any border

Valmont

Does anyone really think a no-deal Brexit would result in food shortages?

blinding

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

We know that. That's exactly why the backstop was put in place. Those of us who are cognisant of our history know only too well what the British state is capable of when it comes to Ireland.

It was all too predictable that the British would be happy to point the Brexit-gun at us. Luckily the border-backstop means the British are pointing the gun at their own head.

More Irish people need to understand this . If necessary the Brits will play hard ball as best they can with the 26 Counties . Wouldn’t you if you were them and the Eu was / is playing hardball with Britain ?

It will be senior hurling . Has Leo ever played any senior hurling ?

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

More Irish people need to understand this . If necessary the Brits will play hard ball as best they can with the 26 Counties . Wouldn’t you if you were them and the Eu was / is playing hardball with Britain ?

It will be senior hurling . Has Leo ever played any senior hurling ?

They have tried to apply pressure and it has only achieved greater EU resolve. That road is a dead end.

After a Brexit there would be no point in trying to use their muscle and it would only attract further crippling action from the EU.

flutered

Nody wrote: »

You are making a string of assumptions from the conflict which are no longer true.

For starters there are no guards that you can have look the other way (pick your poison why from being told to, bribes, sympathises, threats etc.) in place. You can't move them around with a tractor or similar but need heavy duty lifters to get them out of the way nor can you really blow them up as they tilt over and hence you're left with a big lifter or torches. By having a couple of patrols a day going past that is not going to be a quick and normal route through them.

Secondly the border is no longer about IRA and their counterparts trying to smuggle weapons in to keep the struggle alive for unification; in fact the border if anything helps push unification faster. It's an economical border and since UK abdicate setting up any controls you have a essentially risk free way for both sides to make their money which does not involve smuggling over a closed border. Why take the risk to smuggle into Ireland if UK offers you more profit at zero risk? Once again the current gangs are in it for the money and risk free money is always the best money; esp. if you can make it on booze, tobacco and other high VAT/tax products.

Third you assume that the border needs to stop anything and everything 24/7; that's not the case nor requirement. You can walk over plenty of European third party borders if you're in the middle of no where. Hence by stopping lorry traffic you've achieved the primary goal already and can work out a longer term plan if needed.

the border is 300 miles long, what amount of hours and personell will it take to secure it

VonZan

flutered wrote: »

i believe in the event of a crash out, it will be up to the uk to set up any border

That gets said a lot but the reality is the EU will want to inspect goods coming from the UK, particularly where food will be transferred from the North to the South. The UK are looking to lower their standards and regulation so the onus will be on the EU to set up a border and the Tory's know that.

Although I don't think it will come to that as the reality of Brexit will have to eventually sink in. The EU can't allow for a scenario where the UK would be given access to the Single Market without ECJ oversight. It just simply doesn't work like that yet that doesn't seem to have sunk in yet.

Also, as long as the Tory's rely on the DUP to govern then the ability to deliver a coherent Brexit is in big trouble, if it's not already.

flutered

Econ__ wrote: »

How long would it take to adequately secure a border of that complexity to protect the integrity of the Single Market? Quite a while I would say. The entire situation would be a mess - the most likely outcome would be Ireland temporarily suspended from the Single Market.

The campaign for a United Ireland would gather pace very quickly in these type of circumstances, imo. A serious economic shock to NI and Ireland's place in the Single Market compromised would be a serious wave to ride that campaign on.

completly wrong, ireland will not be suspended from the single market

Econ__

Valmont wrote: »

Does anyone really think a no-deal Brexit would result in food shortages?

Yes. The port of Dover is already operating at close to maximum capacity. Dropping out of the EU with no deal would mean substantial checks at Calais, which will cause a backlog in Dover that will keep building. Much of Britain's fresh food is imported from the EU and operates under a highly efficient, just in time system.

The question that needs to be asked is, why wouldn't it result in food shortages?

An Ciarraioch

Valmont wrote: »

Does anyone really think a no-deal Brexit would result in food shortages?

The UK does only produce 60% of its own food.

CelticRambler

Valmont wrote: »

Does anyone really think a no-deal Brexit would result in food shortages?

No.


Certainly not "famine-like" shortages. Some products would undoubtedly be in shorter supply, especially those that rely on foreign labour (e.g. crops harvested by foreign workers in the UK who've chosen to go somewhere else) or that are exported to the EU for processing.



But as JRM keeps telling us, Britain is not going to erect any borders, so the whole world will be waiting to dump their surplus production in the UK. Ireland will - or at least should be - first in the queue.

Econ__

flutered wrote: »

completly wrong, ireland will not be suspended from the single market

Do you have a magic ball?

If Ireland cannot secure it's border effectively and timely, the integrity of the entire Single Market will be prioritised over Ireland's access to it.

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have tried to apply pressure and it has only achieved greater EU resolve. That road is a dead end.

After a Brexit there would be no point in trying to use their muscle and it would only attract further crippling action from the EU.

If the Eu keep their attention 6 months , 1 year , 18 months down the line .

Its going to be interesting .

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

If the Eu keep their attention 6 months , 1 year , 18 months down the line .

Its going to be interesting .

Not really.
Once Brexit happens it will be move on time and find new markets etc etc.
The UK have done their huffing and puffing over Ireland. They will other things to worry about.

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not really.
Once Brexit happens it will be move on time and find new markets etc etc.
The UK have done their huffing and puffing over Ireland. They will other things to worry about.

Fair enough but if I were the Brits and the Eu messed Britain about I would I would retaliate in kind as best I could . If the Eu plays messy why should Britain roll over ?

PopePalpatine

Valmont wrote: »

Does anyone really think a no-deal Brexit would result in food shortages?

Perhaps the EU could carry out an Airlift using excess agricultural produce.

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

why should Britain roll over ?

They have rolled over and my money is on them doing it again. Next time, on the DUP with a sea border to solve the border issue and to get some kind of deal.