Brexit discussion thread IV

joeysoap

The CTA doesn’t seem to apply to Dublin airport. Always had to show my passport ( I believe other forms I’d ID would be sufficient, but you still have to queue up like everybody else.) Unlike USA , where if you clear in Dublin you can walk straight out of the terminal.

breatheme

Leroy42 wrote: »

So the CTA is not actually an formal agreement?  Based on the last few years in the UK, would anyone be surprised if the UK look at getting rid of it?

It is the logical next step to Brexit I would have thought?

No, the CTA is an not a formal agreement, never has been.

VinLieger

joeysoap wrote: »

The CTA doesn’t seem to apply to Dublin airport. Always had to show my passport ( I believe other forms I’d ID would be sufficient, but you still have to queue up like everybody else.) Unlike USA , where if you clear in Dublin you can walk straight out of the terminal.

The reason you still have to show your passport in Dublin is because we don't have a setup big enough in Dublin to accommodate all the UK flights not having to show their passports. It would require a whole seperate channel and potentially terminal for passengers from UK flights to disembark and exit the airport through, which Dublin airport has no way to accommodate right now.

Zubeneschamali

Today's Brexit news: Deutsche Bank moves half its Euro clearing to Frankfurt. Warnings that up to 100,000 City jobs may go.

100,000 City jobs.

Igotadose

Interesting. 1.4Million new voters can vote if there were a new referendum: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-brexit-latest-young-voters-second-referendum-remain-poll-a8467631.html

FrancieBrady

First Up wrote: »

I don't think we'll be "left" with the CTA as it now operates. There will probably be free movement and work for Irish citizens but the UK cannot control the movement of other EU citizens if there is an open door through Ireland.

There really is no telling what will happen with the CTA if the Brexiteers get into a more powerful situation.
You could be looking at years of chaos if that happens.

Igotadose

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Today's Brexit news: Deutsche Bank moves half its Euro clearing to Frankfurt. Warnings that up to 100,000 City jobs may go.

100,000 City jobs.

Note that the warning was overall, it's not that DB has 100,000 employees in the City. They're shrinking by 7,000, moving to Frankfurt.

I think what we're seeing here, is the European companies taking advantage of the opportunity that they'd planned for in the past. Brexit accelerated it, but I'm sure there'd been rumblings about moving from London previously.

Also, the number quoted in an Independent.co.uk article is from France's finance minister, and it's 83,000. Not sure where the 100,000 comes from, obviously if 83,000 jobs are lost the knock-on effect is much higher than 100,000

Still, it'll all be grand in 50 years if you believe the ERG.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Today's Brexit news: Deutsche Bank moves half its Euro clearing to Frankfurt. Warnings that up to 100,000 City jobs may go.

100,000 City jobs.

Heard some Arbuthnot Banking official glossing over that news as 'inevitable and no biggie' on BBC last night.
Her attitude was how silly the EU was to want to keep what happens the Euro under it's control. She was quite a piece of work in the JRM/Boris 'tally ho' sort of way.

Zubeneschamali

Igotadose wrote: »

Not sure where the 100,000 comes from, obviously if 83,000 jobs are lost the knock-on effect is much higher than 100,000

The 100,000 number is from the owners of the London Stock Exchange.

LeinsterDub

First Up wrote: »

I don't think we'll be "left" with the CTA as it now operates. There will probably be free movement and work for Irish citizens but the UK cannot control the movement of other EU citizens if there is an open door through Ireland.

Britain's plan isn't to control the border it's plan it to control jobs and services . In order to access these you'll have to prove your in the UK legitimately.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Today's Brexit news: Deutsche Bank moves half its Euro clearing to Frankfurt. Warnings that up to 100,000 City jobs may go.

100,000 City jobs.

Well that'll solve the problem of picking the crops, 100,000 city workers having to actually work to earn their money.

Berserker

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There really is no telling what will happen with the CTA if the Brexiteers get into a more powerful situation.
You could be looking at years of chaos if that happens.

If we have a hard Brexit, what do you think will happen to the CTA? What would the reaction to that be like for Irish citizens, if it was scrapped? Lad I work with goes to every Liverpool home game. Faced dropped when I told him that he would have to go through immigration etc if that came to pass.

Igotadose wrote: »

I think what we're seeing here, is the European companies taking advantage of the opportunity that they'd planned for in the past. Brexit accelerated it, but I'm sure there'd been rumblings about moving from London previously.

Agree 100%. Plenty of European companies are going to use it to prune their business in a variety of ways. They can use Brexit as a mask for it all.

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Today's Brexit news: Deutsche Bank moves half its Euro clearing to Frankfurt. Warnings that up to 100,000 City jobs may go.

100,000 City jobs.

well the City did vote to remain

They were wholly aware of what path Brexit could take

VinLieger

Spook_ie wrote: »

Well that'll solve the problem of picking the crops, 100,000 city workers having to actually work to earn their money.

Yeah that'll solve the worst cereal harvest in 30 years and the UK having to import 30% of its food as it can't feed itself sustainably

briany

First Up wrote: »

I don't think we'll be "left" with the CTA as it now operates. There will probably be free movement and work for Irish citizens but the UK cannot control the movement of other EU citizens if there is an open door through Ireland.

We don't know how this will play out until we see how many people would even want to get to the UK through a backdoor. The demographic attempting this would not be, I'm guessing, middle-class professionals from Western Europe. Would the UK even still be a desirable place for low-skilled immigrants to get to after Brexit? My feeling would be that the UK are banking on this idea that, although the back door would be open, few non-Irish EU nationals would be willing to use it, given the more hostile place that a post-Brexit UK is set to become to those types of people.

If it's a only trickle of 'undesirables' crossing the border, the UK probably wouldn't mind. The 'no free movement' red line has always been a concession to the more extreme end of the Brexit movement anyway. It's more if the red tops pick up on the story of EU nationals crossing the border and onward into Britain that things become very interesting.

The whole situation is such an incredible mess.

Leroy42

Spook_ie wrote: »

Well that'll solve the problem of picking the crops, 100,000 city workers having to actually work to earn their money.

And tax rises for everyone to cover to fact that now instead of paying tax on their earning they will be forced onto welfare since at best they will be minimum wage, and probably zero hour contract jobs.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

We don't know how this will play out until we see how many people would even want to get to the UK through a backdoor. The demographic attempting this would not be, I'm guessing, middle-class professionals from Western Europe. Would the UK even still be a desirable place for low-skilled immigrants to get to after Brexit? My feeling would be that the UK are banking on this idea that, although the back door would be open, few non-Irish EU nationals would be willing to use it, given the more hostile place that a post-Brexit UK is set to become to those types of people.

If it's a only trickle of 'undesirables' crossing the border, the UK probably wouldn't mind. The 'no free movement' red line has always been a concession to the more extreme end of the Brexit movement anyway. It's more if the red tops pick up on the story of EU nationals crossing the border and onward into Britain that things become very interesting.

The whole situation is such an incredible mess.

If anything, if half of what is predicted happens to the UK economy then to my mind it will require more and more cheap labour.

That demand is going to attract people as it always has. How low do the levels of income have to go to put them off or make them look elsewhere I don't know. But for a period they will still try and come.

Leroy42

As an aside, if the UK becomes less attractive due to falling economy, is Ireland prepared by the probable movement of immigration to ROI as the alternative?

First Up

LeinsterDub wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

I don't think we'll be "left" with the CTA as it now operates. There will probably be free movement and work for Irish citizens but the UK cannot control the movement of other EU citizens if there is an open door through Ireland.

Britain's plan isn't to control the border it's plan it to control jobs and services . In order to access these you'll have to prove your in the UK legitimately.

Ever hear of the Black Economy?

LeinsterDub

First Up wrote: »

Ever hear of the Black Economy?

Eh I'm not sure why you're asking me , it's not my policy .

CelticRambler

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How low do the levels of income have to go to put them off or make them look elsewhere I don't know. But for a period they will still try and come.

Below the average EU minimum wage ... or "where we are now". The EU as a whole is beginning to suffer a shortage of able-bodied workers, due to its aging population. The "still-in" UK has already seen EU migrant workers opt out of coming to the UK in favour of better conditions (money, weather, proximity to family) on the continent.


So post-Brexit, with (presumably) the pound worth less than it is now and UK customers unable to afford the higher prices that would sustain higher wages, the country will have no choice but to look for workers who are in an even worse financial state - in practice, poorly-educated Third World labourers.


As indirectly referred to in the Farage/LBC clip about vets, voting for Brexit (on the basis of "controlling immigration") has had/will have the effect of excluding well-qualified, innovative, socially responsible EU migrants who make a positive financial contribution to the UK exchequer, and increased the number of uneducated economic refugees from countries with very different cultures to that of Middle England.

First Up

LeinsterDub wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Ever hear of the Black Economy?

Eh I'm not sure why you're asking me , it's not my policy .

There will be plenty of jobs available in the black economy for EU citizens after Brexit. As there are now.

LeinsterDub

First Up wrote: »

There will be plenty of jobs available in the black economy for EU citizens after Brexit. As there are now.

I'm aware of that. What I'm not aware of is why you are telling me . It's the Tory's policy

briany

What happens to EU nationals who go to Britain after Brexit to work in this black economy, but are found by authorities? Will they be deported?

LeinsterDub

briany wrote: »

What happens to EU nationals who go to Britain after Brexit to work in this black economy, but are found by authorities? Will they be deported?

I can't imaigine they will be treated any better than the Windrush people .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windrush_scandal

People who are actually British citizens

Zubeneschamali

Tweet with a graph of EU Nurse registrations in the UK.

500 in Jan 2016, rising to 1300 in August, then plummeting to a low level, hovering at around 50 ever since.

Brexit uncertainty and outright hostility to foreigners means the UK won't have to try hard to exclude EU citizens. They will not be able to attract even the ones they want.

In the NMCs own report, you can also see Nurses leaving. Numbers joining from the EEA are at about 10% where they were in 2015. Numbers leaving have tripled.

https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1023606157171195905

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Tweet with a graph of EU Nurse registrations in the UK.

500 in Jan 2016, rising to 1300 in August, then plummeting to a low level, hovering at around 50 ever since.

Brexit uncertainty and outright hostility to foreigners means the UK won't have to try hard to exclude EU citizens. They will not be able to attract even the ones they want.

In the NMCs own report, you can also see Nurses leaving. Numbers joining from the EEA are at about 10% where they were in 2015. Numbers leaving have tripled.

https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1023606157171195905

that is damning and something that should make a lot of people sit up and take notice..

it probably won't though as I doubt any mainstream media channel outside of the guardian will pick it up.

jooksavage

Who's even going to want to work in the black economy? Mushroom pickers? Cleaners? Petrol pump attendants? Skilled labor are not going to sacrifice the benefits of legitimate employment for the promise of a few quick readies.

Zubeneschamali

lawred2 wrote: »

that is damning and something that should make a lot of people sit up and take notice..

it probably won't though as I doubt any mainstream media channel outside of the guardian will pick it up.

I'd say there is a similar effect in scientists, researchers, programmers and lots of other roles for professionals who are mobile, but no-one is measuring it.

First Up

LeinsterDub wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

There will be plenty of jobs available in the black economy for EU citizens after Brexit. As there are now.

I'm aware of that. What I'm not aware of is why you are telling me . It's the Tory's policy

Because you said people will have to prove they are legitimately in the UK in order to work. They won't.