Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think rather than revoking article 50 in the event of no deal, the UK is more likely, rather, to fail to invoke article 128 of the EEA agreement and thereby stay in the single market. As we know, if the UK wants to leave the single market, it must give 12 months notice notice to other EEA28 before they can leave. While the UK is in the EU they cannot issue this notice.


Failing to invoke A128 would still be a climbdown but less so than revoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Appears to be Article 127, but you're spot on as to the procedure:

https://www.monckton.com/brexit-european-economic-area-eea-membership-article-127-eea/

The article suggests though that the UK would have to join EFTA to maintain independent membership.

Junkyard Tom

If Britain does reverse on Brexit we should use the opportunity, if we can, to extract some sort of British-Irish accord that any future regulatory divergence in Ireland is off-the-table regardless of what Britain decides to do.

LeinsterDub

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If Britain does reverse on Brexit we should use the opportunity, if we can, to extract some sort of British-Irish accord that any future regardless of what Britain decides to do.

It wouldn't be worth the paper it's written on. Sure the GFA is basically a statement that regulatory divergence in Ireland is off-the-table and they are riding rough shot over it

catrionanic

My husband works in a large British law firm in Dublin. They have been asked to advise the British government on what will happen to the electricity market in the event of a no deal brexit... bearing in mind that ESB owns the power supply to all of NI and parts of Britain. They have asked whether power would be shut off....

8 months before Brexit and they're only now asking whether they will have electricity!

twinytwo

Taytoland wrote: »

With the position of the UK government on no customs union and the EU rejecting that, the rest of the "negotiations" are a waste of time. Prepare for no deal, the reason you see all these scare stories in the media about medicine and food etc is a last ditch attempt from the remainers in the government and civil service trying to make Chequers more popular because after that they know what is coming. If they can't gain support for it then no deal Brexit is inevitable.

You better hope its not a no deal. This country is rightly ****ed if it is.

Forget all the lip service coming from the EU they don't give two ****s about us.

Naturally all the EU lovers will try to convince you otherwise

Leroy42

twinytwo wrote: »

You better hope its not a no deal. This country is rightly ****ed if it is.

Forget all the lip service coming from the EU they don't give two ****s about us.

Naturally all the EU lovers will try to convince you otherwise

You are completely right.

What is your alternative to the way that the EU are trying to keep the rules intact and avoid having a strong competitor going directly against us with all the benefits and none of the costs?

Taytoland

catrionanic wrote: »

My husband works in a large British law firm in Dublin. They have been asked to advise the British government on what will happen to the electricity market in the event of a no deal brexit...  bearing in mind that ESB owns the power supply to all of NI and parts of Britain. They have asked whether power would be shut off....

8 months before Brexit and they're only now asking whether they will have electricity!

This would be good for society, get people outside in the fresh air.

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, it appears the UK has conceded that the EU will have arbitrage over UK financial services' access to the Single Market (google "Barnier eases opposition to May's Brexit plan for City of London" for FT article).

murphaph

twinytwo wrote: »

You better hope its not a no deal. This country is rightly ****ed if it is.

Forget all the lip service coming from the EU they don't give two ****s about us.

Naturally all the EU lovers will try to convince you otherwise

Has Brexit taught you nothing? The UK does not give a toss about Ireland. The EU would really rather move on at this stage. The Daily Express might convince its readership that the EU is only "being awkward" about the backstop as an underhanded way of keeping the UK on the EU. It's simply not true. The EU would much rather they could just get on with it. They are making a stand over the border for Ireland.

twinytwo

Leroy42 wrote: »

You are completely right.

What is your alternative to the way that the EU are trying to keep the rules intact and avoid having a strong competitor going directly against us with all the benefits and none of the costs?

The EU are too busy trying to make an example of the UK because they are terrified someone else will follow suit..thus leaving the united states of europe plan with no where to go.

Regardless of what the UK proposed the EU will reject it in line with the above.

The fact that this will destroy this country is irrelevant for the EU.

twinytwo

murphaph wrote: »

Has Brexit taught you nothing? The UK does not give a toss about Ireland. The EU would really rather move on at this stage. The Daily Express might convince its readership that the EU is only "being awkward" about the backstop as an underhanded way of keeping the UK on the EU. It's simply not true. The EU would much rather they could just get on with it. They are making a stand over the border for Ireland.

The uk has never given a toss about ireland... did you think was not the case?

Beechwoodspark

twinytwo wrote: »

The EU are too busy trying to make an example of the UK because they are terrified someone else will follow suit..thus leaving the united states of europe plan with no where to go.

Regardless of what the UK proposed the EU will reject it in line with the above.

The fact that this will destroy this country is irrelevant for the EU.

Brexiteers still cling to the forlorn belief that “Europe needs us more than we need them”

First Up

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Econ__ wrote: »

My understanding of Article 50 is that it was drafted in an inefficient manner - there are many clear flaws in it. Not explicitly stating whether or not it can be unilaterally withdrawn is one.

I read a paper on this question a while ago. It seems that it is almost unknown to include a revocation provision to an exit clause. It is generally assumed that a country wont invoke an exit clause unless it means to go through with exiting.

There is a good reason not to allow a country revoke Artical 50 unilateraly, it would be a moral hazzard as it would give governments the ability to blackmail the EU with no need to actually leave.

The general consensus as I understand it is that Art 50 can only be revoked with the consent of the 27, though that would ultimatly have to be ruled on by the ECJ.

Correct. The UK cannot unilaterally withdraw A50. They have set it in motion and it is no longer in their hands.

In theory if they crawl on hands and knees, prostrate themselves before the Commission and 27 and beg, a way could be found to allow them stay. However there would be enough strings attached by the 27 to revive Leicester's knitting industry.

The chances of enough UK politicians coming to their senses, defying the right wing media and getting a vote through parliament to even ask are pretty remote.

Even in that unlikely event, the conditions imposed from the Commission, European Parliament and across the 27 would be so humiliating that they would trigger another bout of the Dunkirk spirit and defiance in defeat.

No, they will leave next year and everyone (except them) will be ready. Maybe in ten years and under a radically different government, they will timidly knock on the door - chastened, poorer and weakend (but probably not wiser.)

catrionanic

Taytoland wrote: »

This would be good for society, get people outside in the fresh air.

Absolutely. All those sick patients in hospitals are just in need for a bit of a breather.

Taytoland

catrionanic wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

This would be good for society, get people outside in the fresh air.

Absolutely. All those sick patients in hospitals are just in need for a bit of a breather.

I very much doubt the electricity is going to go off in hospitals. It's becoming a bit far fetched now, what next mile high tidal waves?

Anthracite

twinytwo wrote: »

The EU are too busy trying to make an example of the UK because they are terrified someone else will follow suit..thus leaving the united states of europe plan with no where to go.

Regardless of what the UK proposed the EU will reject it in line with the above.

The fact that this will destroy this country is irrelevant for the EU.

The UK, as has been explained a million times, can choose an option based on what the EU offers everyone else. Their own red lines mean all that is available is a bare free trade deal like CETA. If they want something else, they need to compromise same as everyone else does to get greater access.

It's really not complicated. The fact that the British still don't understand this reflects badly on the state of British education. Let's not embarrass ourselves with similar levels of ignorance here.

flutered

Nody wrote: »

The Finnish border to Russia is 1340km long and runs through large tracks of forests, lakes etc. and they can control theirs just fine with a similar total population as Ireland; are you claiming Ireland with less than a quarter of length can't handle the same?

To the person asking how long it would take to close the border; since you're going for the 200 or so relevant border crossings (i.e. once that connect to a road going further into Ireland rather than simply going back up north again) quite quickly since you can drive trucks there and can do multiple sites in parallel.

both are not comparable, as there are only two main crossings on the finnish russian border, most of that border is wild and waste mountain terrain, plus some canal and river crossings

flutered

blinding wrote: »

Fair enough but if I were the Brits and the Eu messed Britain about I would I would retaliate in kind as best I could . If the Eu plays messy why should Britain roll over ?

how can the uk play messy

Anthracite

flutered wrote: »

how can the uk play messy

And how are the EU being 'messy'? The UK wants the EU to change to suit it, a soon-to-be ex-member?

Why should the EU change one iota? Let the UK do whatever the hell it wants. If they want to try to return to an imperial fantasy, let them drown in their own hubris.

trellheim

I very much doubt the electricity is going to go off in hospitals. It's becoming a bit far fetched now, what next mile high tidal waves?

If you search there is a non trivial plan to float generator rafts to NI ( no I'm not messing ) for this exact problem.

Ok I'll take pity and save you a google

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-government-plan-for-electricity-barges-in-irish-sea-should-northern-ireland-be-cut-off-37108625.html

FrancieBrady

trellheim wrote: »

If you search there is a non trivial plan to float generator rafts to NI ( no I'm not messing ) for this exact problem.

Ok I'll take pity and save you a google

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-government-plan-for-electricity-barges-in-irish-sea-should-northern-ireland-be-cut-off-37108625.html

Problem here is that there are so many who do not remember how easily society can plunge downward like it did in the 70's and 80's.
Powercuts and instable supply are a real problem to be faced by northern Ireland.

blinding

flutered wrote: »

how can the uk play messy

Of course the Brits are going to ask for as much as possible in negotiations and of course the Eu is going to fight its corner as hard as possible but in the end if the Eu is what the British think is unfair / unreasonable then Britain will squeeze the 26 counties . Wouldn’t you .

It will be interesting to see if the Eu stays vigilant 6 months , 1 year , 18 months down the line .

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Problem here is that there are so many who do not remember how easily society can plunge downward like it did in the 70's and 80's.
Powercuts and instable supply are a real problem to be faced by northern Ireland.

Hopefully the Brits don’t invade the 26 counties to stabilise things under some of these scenarios . Mary Lou and Leo won’t be much use if it gets tetchy !

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

Of course the Brits are going to ask for as much as possible in negotiations and of course the Eu is going to fight its corner as hard as possible but in the end if the Eu is what the British think is unfair / unreasonable then Britain will squeeze the 26 counties . Wouldn’t you .

It will be interesting to see if the Eu stays vigilant 6 months , 1 year , 18 months down the line .

They will be out at that stage. Please tell us, other than spite, what this squeezing would achieve for them?

Valmont

Econ__ wrote: »

The question that needs to be asked is, why wouldn't it result in food shortages?

Because companies still have the money to buy food that they need and there are still companies willing to ferry it in. The awkward question then becomes will the EU get in the way of free and voluntary trade between its member states and a non-EU country?

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They will be out at that stage. Please tell us, other than spite, what this squeezing would achieve for them?

Spite can be a powerful motivator . The Brits can say we ease off Paddy and Biddy and other genders if ye (the Eu ) cut us some slack . Mexican stand off stuff but the Brits have two guns on the 26 Counties .

Leroy42

twinytwo wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

You are completely right.

What is your alternative to the way that the EU are trying to keep the rules intact and avoid having a strong competitor going directly against us with all the benefits and none of the costs?

The EU are too busy trying to make an example of the UK because they are terrified someone else will follow suit..thus leaving the united states of europe plan with no where to go.

Regardless of what the UK proposed the EU will reject it in line with the above.

The fact that this will destroy this country is irrelevant for the EU.

Except that the EU put down their position on day 1. The terms of the talks, sequence, lenght, phase 1 and 2.

They haven't changed their position since that day save for trying to accommodate TM inability to work out what the UK wants.

The UK want a la carte from the buffet menu. They didn't like the options so have spent close to 18 months hoping they could guilt the EU into changing its position.

From the UK we have had the Red lines, the take it or leave it, the agreement that wasn't, the white paper, the amended white paper and now the calls for the EU to lay out its position.

The UK didn't plan properly, not even aware the problems that NI would create. This was exacerbated by TM joining up with the DUP, and paying for the privilege, only to realise she had tied herself to an anchor.

But again, what is your alternative? The UK have already stated that they want to use their new freedom to compete directly with the EU, lowering tariffs to gain a competitive advantage.

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

Spite can be a powerful motivator . The Brits can say we ease off Paddy and Biddy and other genders if ye (the Eu ) cut us some slack . Mexican stand off stuff but the Brits have two guns on the 26 Counties .

Now is the only time that will benefit them...and they have completely backed off because the 26 other members have stood firm. It isn't the 1800's anymore.

In a years time, it will be pointless and they will most likely need our food anyhow...while the ordinary sods eat the cheap chlorinated stuff.

Econ__

Valmont wrote: »

Because companies still have the money to buy food that they need and there are still companies willing to ferry it in. The awkward question then becomes will the EU get in the way of free and voluntary trade between its member states and a non-EU country?

What's awkward here is your complete ignorance of what the EU is and how the Single Market and Customs Union operates.

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Now is the only time that will benefit them...and they have completely backed off because the 26 other members have stood firm. It isn't the 1800's anymore.

In a years time, it will be pointless and they will most likely need our food anyhow...while the ordinary sods eat the cheap chlorinated stuff.

I suppose they tell ya on the packet if its chlorinated . Maybe some People will like it .