Brexit discussion thread IV

trellheim

Yes. Operation Stack has been planned in detail both for weather and strikes.

https://www.kent.police.uk/advice/operation-stack/

Its very interesting that when Question Time visited Dover these issues were very clear, front and centre, and the usual Brexit debate that is a massive QT feature of recent time, took on the light of a conversation actually - for once - grounded in harsh reality.

J Mysterio

Roger_007 wrote: »

There is much talk in the UK media about a second referendum, but what would be the question?
If the referendum asks the people to vote on whether to accept or reject in total whatever exit deal is negotiated, that would lead to the messiest campaign in history. There are so many complex issues involved that the result of the referendum would be probably be to reject because everyone would find something they didn't agree with. If the deal is rejected, what then?
If the referendum asks the people to simply reverse Brexit and cancel their Article 50 application, that would be much simpler but as far as I know, nobody is pushing for this.

There's no question things are getting desperate, and I think that's why there is the call for the second referendum, with the 'new' facts.

Many of those who are trying to stop/ reverse/ cancel Brexit may see a 2nd Ref as the only way to change course. As the Brexiteers claim they are fighting to implement the 'will of the people', the way to stop them - and 'it' - may be to have the people think again and reject the nonsense. I wouldn't be confident of the 'right' result though.

I also would have no confidence in the UK doing this sensibly or correctly. What would the question be? Would they actually have a referendum commision this time? Would it really settle the matter? Never mind the fact that a 2nd ref would probably cause more divisons, see more social unrest, and destabilise the UK further. Also, there is shag all time for it.

As many have pointed out, the UK probably need to go through the Brexit process, suffer, break up and eventually reapply with a softened cough.

Sam Russell

lawred2 wrote: »

Where did you get the £35 figure from? Is that a standard tariff?

It is not a tariff but an administration fee. It is a typical fee charged by freight forwarders, and was quoted by a UK media source which I cannot find at the moment. Google gives a typical charge of $50, if that helps.

A tariff would be charged on top of the clearance fee, if applicable.

Also remember, most exporters to Europe from the UK have not done a customs documentation for over 20 years. There is also a requirement for Certificate of Origin for some goods, and also phytosanitory issues to comply with for goods and packaging, like wooden pallets.

Oh what a complex web we weave when we first decide to leave.

trellheim

Richard Burnett

Richard Burnett(Road haulage association) - We're not ready for the 29th of March & that's not scare mongering it's the reality of the situation. We're going to see queues on the M20 on a scale we've never seen before... we'll see delays of days/weeks.

Also a very good article from a supply chain newsletter ( no surprise as they are going to be Ground Zero )

https://theloadstar.co.uk/shippers-forwarders-hauliers-now-planning-no-deal-brexit-looms/
]

J Mysterio

Sam Russell wrote: »

Oh what a complex web we weave when we first decide to leave.

This is nice. Really could have left the original quote though! Plenty of deception involved in Leave.

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is not a tariff but an administration fee. It is a typical fee charged by freight forwarders, and was quoted by a UK media source which I cannot find at the moment. Google gives a typical charge of $50, if that helps.

A tariff would be charged on top of the clearance fee, if applicable.

Also remember, most exporters to Europe from the UK have not done a customs documentation for over 20 years. There is also a requirement for Certificate of Origin for some goods, and also phytosanitory issues to comply with for goods and packaging, like wooden pallets.

Oh what a complex web we weave when we first decide to leave.

I believe the admin fee quoted in media is based on the current fee on trade with non-EU countries.

Sam Russell

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I believe the admin fee quoted in media is based on the current fee on trade with non-EU countries.

How many of the 140,000 UK businesses that trade only with EU customers have applied for Economic Operator Registration Identification? Also AEO membership is also an important consideration. Also how many UK businesses have determined the Common Tariff classification for each and everyone of their products?

I think they will be hit with higher CC charges if they do not make it easier for the freight forwarders, and will also suffer significant delays with clearance if they are not quick off the mark with these matters.

Classification is not an easy matter - as parts can have multiple classifications depending on their intended use.

Strazdas

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/996750/Brexit-news-fresh-sandwich-project-fear-BBC-Brexit-latest-Marcus-Fysh-Newsnight

"Project Fear hits NEW LOW: Expert warns no-deal Brexit will spark SANDWICH FAMINE in UK"

And that's how it works folks.

Note how the Tory MP had absolutely no arguments to fall back on, just meaningless and empty soundbites about 'respecting the referendum result'. Flatly disagreeing with the expert but with not a single fact he can use to support his case.

axer

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/996750/Brexit-news-fresh-sandwich-project-fear-BBC-Brexit-latest-Marcus-Fysh-Newsnight

"Project Fear hits NEW LOW: Expert warns no-deal Brexit will spark SANDWICH FAMINE in UK"

And that's how it works folks.

Ireland causes famine in the UK?
Poetic justice...

Infini

axer wrote: »

Ireland causes famine in the UK?
Poetic justice...

Think "Irony" is the more apt term!

As for Brexit itself I still believe theres a good chance of it being abandoned once the penny finally drops over there that the only thing they'll get is a crash out if they dont. I honestly think the Bullshyteers are feeling threatened because when confronted they keep falling back on cliches and crap like "project fear" because they cant accept theyre wrong and have no facts to backup their statements.

The EU wont budge because they've no reason to. They hold the cards and they wont compromise on their core tenants. As more questions get asked about brexit more people over there are gonna ask if its even worth it not to mention those who are against it are gonna push more and more expecially once a crashout becomes a very real possibility. The cheating from leave has to come home to bite them sooner or later.

Some might think Britain needs to crash out for their stupidity but I honestly think they dont need to go that far. Everyone loses if they do leave no matter what side they are. They do need a good scare to make them wake up and pay attention to the rot in their own house and reform their system to be more accountable though. I also think those who have lied and cheated to get everyone into this situation deserve to have it come back to bite them down the line.

Leroy42

What I find interesting is that the total narrative, not just in some parts of the media but across every aspect of it, is that there is no good news regarding Brexit. The best that any Brexit supporter can achieve is to rubbish the claims of others, ie Project Fear.

But at no point does anyone actual give any details of the positives. So even on the Newsnight link posted earlier, Marcus rubbishes the guys claims of any problems. But at no point does he give anything in the way of a positive. At best, things will remain the same as they are.

Well, what was the whole point then if that is all that is going to happen?

An Ciarraioch

An interesting graph of European unemployment rates for July 2018:

https://i.imgur.com/jM5mJxl.png

Evidently, both ourselves and the UK fare well, but for me the biggest surprise is Poland - are we seeing the emigrants of the last decade returning from both Ireland and Britain?

Water John

He almost gave the impression that JRM et al, had a magic wand that they would simply wave and any problem would disappear.

Bit cynical

Leroy42 wrote: »

And what about joining the EEA. THis would deliver Brexit. The question was "leave the EU". So that would be accomplished by joining the EEA. No need for these red lines at all. No need for hard borders.

There would still be a border in the case of the EEA as the UK would be out of the customs union. The UK would still have the right to do trade deals internationally and all the arguments about the EU having to protect itself against dubious foreign standards would still apply. Agriculture would not be included so Ireland would be required to protect against smuggling etc.

I think it is likely that the UK will remain in the EEA but only if talks fail. It will, in effect, be the backstop for the UK.

Trasna1

Leroy42 wrote: »

What I find interesting is that the total narrative, not just in some parts of the media but across every aspect of it, is that there is no good news regarding Brexit. The best that any Brexit supporter can achieve is to rubbish the claims of others, ie Project Fear.

But at no point does anyone actual give any details of the positives. So even on the Newsnight link posted earlier, Marcus rubbishes the guys claims of any problems. But at no point does he give anything in the way of a positive. At best, things will remain the same as they are.

Well, what was the whole point then if that is all that is going to happen?

Not quite true. The UK has now been invited to participate in TPP mark 2.
That wouldn't have been available were they to remain in the EU

EdgeCase

How long before they're demanding their sovereignty back from the TPP and trying to wreck that too?

Best of luck to the other TPP members! I sincerely hope you're ready for a partner that will demand exemptions from absolutely everything except the bits where it accesses your markets and pockets your money.

Calina

Trasna1 wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

What I find interesting is that the total narrative, not just in some parts of the media but across every aspect of it, is that there is no good news regarding Brexit. The best that any Brexit supporter can achieve is to rubbish the claims of others, ie Project Fear.

But at no point does anyone actual give any details of the positives. So even on the Newsnight link posted earlier, Marcus rubbishes the guys claims of any problems. But at no point does he give anything in the way of a positive. At best, things will remain the same as they are.

Well, what was the whole point then if that is all that is going to happen?

Not quite true. The UK has now been invited to participate in TPP mark 2.
That wouldn't have been available were they to remain in the EU

No it has not. It has held some exploratory talks and there was some discussion about it as an option in the UK at the start of the year. I think you will find an actual invitation does not exist. Some member states may have mentioned it might be possible but we are far short of anything resembling a formal invitation to join.

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Evidently, both ourselves and the UK fare well, but for me the biggest surprise is Poland - are we seeing the emigrants of the last decade returning from both Ireland and Britain?

Simple answer: yes. That's the effect of the EU for you - when a country joins it, their economy improves and their emigrants return to create and/or take up new jobs!

This another reason why Brexit will be disastrous for the UK, and especially those who voted for Brexit as a vote against immigration. Today's Guardian has an article making more or less the same points I made a few days ago:

In Romania the unemployment rate is at its lowest in a quarter of a century, and the economy grew 7% in 2017, the fastest rate in the EU. Neighbouring Bulgaria’s unemployment rate has also been dropping steadily in recent years. And while many eastern Europeans continue to leave home to take up seasonal work, increasingly they are going elsewhere on the continent, where wages are often now higher.

“We’ve never had people in the past asking about jobs in Germany, it was always ‘can we go to England?’. Now probably 30% of the phone calls are about elsewhere,” says Barbacaru, highlighting the impact of the depreciation of the pound, which fell to a 31-year low in the immediate wake of the Brexit vote and has failed to recover significantly.

The costs associated with the process have tripled, [Douglas Amesz] says, “if not quadrupled”. And while 10 years ago they mostly recruited university students who spoke English, that is not the case today. “Today we don’t recruit any students, they [the recruits] don’t speak English and they aren’t educated.”

Roger_007

EdgeCase wrote: »

How long before they're demanding their sovereignty back from the TPP and trying to wreck that too?

Best of luck to the other TPP members! I sincerely hope you're ready for a partner that will demand exemptions from absolutely everything except the bits where it accesses your markets and pockets your money.

If the Brexiteers want absolute sovereignty for the U.K., they will also have to leave NATO, the UN, and any other international body of which they are a member and have to abide by rules set by those organisations.
They would not , if they follow their own logic, be willing to abide by WTO rules either. In fact, they would not be happy to enter into any international agreement or trade deal unless they alone dictate the rules.
They have a hard road ahead!

Water John

Here we have Hunt trying to put the onus on France and Germany to prevent a crash out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/31/jeremy-hunt-urges-france-germany-force-sensible-brexit-deal

FFS who triggered Art 50 without any homework done? His own Prime Minister.

Leroy42

This is quite a telling quote from Hunt

“France and Germany have to send a strong signal to the commission that we need to negotiate a pragmatic and sensible outcome that protects jobs on both sides of the Channel, because for every job lost in the UK, there will be jobs lost in Europe as well if Brexit goes wrong.”

He has basically just admitted that a No deal brexit will result in job losses in the UK.

The UK government have now accepted that a no deal will leave the UK worse off. How can they even countenance such a thing?

In saying that, this is coming from the man that can't remember where his wife actually comes from, so maybe he thought they were talking about biscuits or something!

Anthracite

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it is likely that the UK will remain in the EEA but only if talks fail. It will, in effect, be the backstop for the UK.

They don't just plop into the EEA by default though, do they?

Anthracite

Water John wrote: »

Here we have Hunt trying to put the onus on France and Germany to prevent a crash out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/31/jeremy-hunt-urges-france-germany-force-sensible-brexit-deal

FFS who triggered Art 50 without any homework done? His own Prime Minister.

"Please don't let us hurt ourselves, and also please give us lots of stuff you don't offer anyone else because we're great pals, and also get lost you tyrants and shove your EU where the sun don't shine".

Have I covered all the bases there?

VinLieger

Water John wrote: »

Here we have Hunt trying to put the onus on France and Germany to prevent a crash out.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/31/jeremy-hunt-urges-france-germany-force-sensible-brexit-deal

FFS who triggered Art 50 without any homework done? His own Prime Minister.

Seriously what do their strategy meetings look like ?


Idiot 1 "You know what we havent tried enough yet? Trying to split the EU countries....."

Idiot 2-20 "Yeah theres no way theyve figured out thats our strategy, who wants to do another interview and see if they will fall for it this time?"

Anthracite

First Up wrote: »

Sky quoting a "secret" report about plans for a 13 mile lorry park on the M20 for trucks queuing for Dover.

How would a 13 mile queue actually work? How long can a driver legally 'drive' in a queue before he has to rest?

Silent Running

It looks like they are back to trying to dodge around Barnier, with a diplomatic effort rolling out to European countries. I hope the 27 have their lines well rehearsed: "Talk to Msr Barnier"

Sam Russell

Silent Running wrote: »

It looks like they are back to trying to dodge around Barnier, with a diplomatic effort rolling out to European countries. I hope the 27 have their lines well rehearsed: "Talk to Msr Barnier"

I thought the Continentals always replied 'We'll see!' which the British take to mean 'Yes OK' but the continentals actually mean 'Well No!'.

It is a case of 'Lost in translation'.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

I thought the Continentals always replied 'We'll see!' which the British take to mean 'Yes OK' but the continentals actually mean 'Well No!'.

It is a case of 'Lost in translation'.

And then we pipe in with "We will, yeah."

No wonder it's such a hard process for le rosbif.

---

Can you just imagine Sabine's eye rolls reading this from Hunt?

listermint

Roger_007 wrote: »

If the Brexiteers want absolute sovereignty for the U.K., they will also have to leave NATO, the UN, and any other international body of which they are a member and have to abide by rules set by those organisations.
They would not , if they follow their own logic, be willing to abide by WTO rules either. In fact, they would not be happy to enter into any international agreement or trade deal unless they alone dictate the rules.
They have a hard road ahead!

Sure why would they want that. The whole thing is about the new EU tax directives.

That's why you have these Etonians running around the place making such protestations about sovereignty.

They won't be able to get away with hiding money any longer like the average peasant they will need to declare

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

Again, I very much doubt there will be a need for diesel generators. On day one, even of a no-deal Brexit, the UK will still have legislation that complies with EU law. It is true that they could change that legislation but that would take time. If they did change legislation then the suppliers in the South would have to look at it and make a decision.

For a more realistic scenario, I would go with the The Institute of International and European Affairs who said in their document: "What does Brexit Mean for the Energy Sector in Ireland?"

Despite the Brexit vote, the all-island SEM is likely to continue for the medium term as it currently exists, without any major alteration or disruption – though of course there are potentially significant challenges to which we must be alert and granular issues to be worked through.

The SEM is clearly established in national law in both the UK and Ireland. It is not the result of laws transposed directly from any EU-level directive. Thus the SEM as a standalone product of UK-Irish bilateral co-operation would remain unaltered in its legal constitution by the UK’s departure, as it is primarily the product of concerted co-operation between the energy regulators and government ministers in Dublin and Belfast dating from the early 2000s.

While it would be within the UK Parliament’s powers to repeal any bilateral electricity market agreement with Ireland, this is unlikely due to the successes of the SEM, which has enjoyed sustained support from political and business sector authorities on both sides of the border, as well as from both Dublin and London.

I would advise reading some of the EU's peparedness notices

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en

Here is the energy one

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/notice_to_stakeholders_brexit_energy_market_final.pdf

The UK has explicitly given notice of its intention to become a Third Country with respect to the EU. The EU is complying. These are not punishments, these are the entitlements and treatments that a Third Country with respect to the EU receives.