Brexit discussion thread IV

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104

Imreoir2

Anthracite wrote: »

How would a 13 mile queue actually work? How long can a driver legally 'drive' in a queue before he has to rest?

God be with the poor driver who gets to the front of the queue as his shift ends. He will have a long walk ahead of him to get out.

In seriousness though, I believe it is common to have two drivers in the cab for long haul journies. This might be necessary for much shorters journies in terms of distance if there are long queues.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

The funny thing is that if the ballot paper had had any detail whatsoever (such as 'leave the EU and Single Market'), it would have been defeated.

The only way Brexiteers could get it passed was to keep the ballot paper as vague as possible. 'Leave the EU' is a vague, abstract concept that could mean a hundred different outcomes.

As explicitly set out by Dominic Cummings, he a large part of the official Leave campaign.

#3 here - https://dominiccummings.com/2015/06/23/on-the-referendum-6-exit-plans-and-a-second-referendum/

cml387

Has anyone suggested this idea.
Have two referendums, an elimination and runoff vote. The three options are no deal, whatever compromise deal is obtained in October,and remain.
The option receiving fewest votes is eliminated. The following week is the vote on the two options.

An Ciarraioch

cml387 wrote: »

Has anyone suggested this idea.
Have two referendums, an elimination and runoff vote. The three options are no deal, whatever compromise deal is obtained in October,and remain.
The option receiving fewest votes is eliminated. The following week is the vote on the two options.

That's essentially the Justine Greening idea, which is what sparked the YouGov polls with those three options.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/996750/Brexit-news-fresh-sandwich-project-fear-BBC-Brexit-latest-Marcus-Fysh-Newsnight

"Project Fear hits NEW LOW: Expert warns no-deal Brexit will spark SANDWICH FAMINE in UK"

And that's how it works folks.

£8bn industry made fun of by the Express.
Absolutely dwarfs the Fisheries industries, but sure their issues suited their narrative better.

Bit cynical

Anthracite wrote: »

They don't just plop into the EEA by default though, do they?

They are already in the EEA as are all EU members. Once they have left the EU they can then decide to leave the EEA. This involves giving notice of one year.

The problem for Ireland is that trade in agriculture is not part of the EEA agreement and there would still be a border where goods are checked as the UK would not be in the customs union. Ireland needs a more comprehensive trade arrangement.

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

They are already in the EEA as are all EU members. Once they have left the EU they can then decide to leave the EEA. This involves giving notice of one year.

The problem for Ireland is that trade in agriculture is not part of the EEA agreement and there would still be a border where goods are checked as the UK would not be in the customs union. Ireland needs a more comprehensive trade arrangement.

Though contentious, this idea directly contradicts the UK Gov's own legal advice which recommends that by virtue of no longer being EU members after 29th March 2019, they will no longer be party to the EEA agreement, which is between the EU Members, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway.

An Ciarraioch

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Though contentious, this idea directly contradicts the UK Gov's own legal advice which recommends that by virtue of no longer being EU members after 29th March 2019, they will no longer be party to the EEA agreement, which is between the EU Members, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway.

And this article also suggests the UK has to join EFTA:

https://www.monckton.com/brexit-european-economic-area-eea-membership-article-127-eea/

Anthracite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104

This really should be a huge wake-up call for unionists - most people in Britain would rather see them caught up in a murderous terrorist campaign over staying in the EU.

Bit cynical

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And this article also suggests the UK has to join EFTA:

https://www.monckton.com/brexit-european-economic-area-eea-membership-article-127-eea/

There are various arguments made on both sides of the question. Here's one from the FT:


https://www.ft.com/content/16b50be8-161c-38d3-83b8-14b04faa9580


I agree that it is not a clear cut issue. The UK remaining in the EEA would neither be a member of the EU or the EFTA. However at the same time there's nothing that explicitly says that when it leaves the EU it automatically leaves the EEA. If, say, Varadkar were to hold the UK to the requirement to issue one year's EEA Article 127 notice, then this would have to go through the courts. In the meantime the UK would be obliged to honour its obligations under the EEA agreement.

Big Ears

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104

I was quite shocked by this initially, till it dawned on me that if the second option was ''Ensuring the safety and security of my Immediate Family'' the result would have been somewhat similar.

There is a large proportion of leave voters who want that outcome at whatever cost, and that is unlikely to change unless the red tops narrative changes.

Water John

Many younger people in the UK were very angry with their own parents who voted leave. They saw it as very selfish and not in the interest of their own children.

Call me Al

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JoeTwyman/status/1024220891897647104

That should be compulsory reading for anyone in NI who professes their lloyalty to the UK.
That potentially millions of British citizens would choose to continue on their current path to achieve an EU exit, at any and all cost for the security and safety of their fellow citizens, and a return to the Troubles.

What short-memories they have. And incredibly selfish.

Econ__

Call me Al wrote: »

That should be compulsory reading for anyone in NI who professes their lloyalty to the UK.
That potentially millions of British citizens would choose to continue on their current path to achieve an EU exit, at any and all cost for the security and safety of their fellow citizens, and a return to the Troubles.

What short-memories they have. And incredibly selfish.

A lot of the respondents in that poll will not have agreed with the premise that peace in NI is at risk at all. A sizeable chunk of the population have been poisoned with the lies of Rees-Mogg, Duncan-Smith etc. who have repeatedly trivialised any potential problems that could occur in NI.

There is a difficult distinction to be drawn here between the malevolent and the mislead.

WomanSkirtFan8

Call me Al wrote: »

That should be compulsory reading for anyone in NI who professes their lloyalty to the UK.
That potentially millions of British citizens would choose to continue on their current path to achieve an EU exit, at any and all cost for the security and safety of their fellow citizens, and a return to the Troubles.

What short-memories they have. And incredibly selfish.

Just had a look at that there. Yeah, can't say that I'm in anyway suprised at that. Being saying it for years that the UK would drop NI the first chance it got and this poll has just proven that to be correct.


Asbolutely bloody insane stuff.:(

bilston

It's hardly a surprise that people in England would drop Northern Ireland if they got the chance. Surely everyone knows that. Even Unionists in Northern Ireland know that. But here's the thing...the little Englanders from the Home Counties would drop everything north of Oxford if they had the chance.

McGiver

bilston wrote: »

It's hardly a surprise that people in England would drop Northern Ireland if they got the chance. Surely everyone knows that. Even Unionists in Northern Ireland know that. But here's the thing...the little Englanders from the Home Counties would drop everything north of Oxford if they had the chance.

Exactly, they don't care about the Midlands, Northern England, Wales or even Scotland. So what to speak of a half province across the sea.

McGiver

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

cml387 wrote: »

Has anyone suggested this idea.
Have two referendums, an elimination and runoff vote. The three options are no deal, whatever compromise deal is obtained in October,and remain.
The option receiving fewest votes is eliminated. The following week is the vote on the two options.

That's essentially the Justine Greening idea, which is what sparked the YouGov polls with those three options.

Can't see even one referendum happening what to speak of two. Seriously, no deal just cannot be on the ballot - it's such a damaging outcome that no sensible government would subscribe to it or even put it on ballot. And even so, they would have to produce a description of what no deal entails, describe the damage and deliver this to every household in the UK. Would they even have such assessment done? Is it even possible to correctly assess the potential damage?

trellheim

That...is a badly skewed poll ... its only leave voters . NI not at peace is a topic that many people under 21 only have second hand experience of (in the broad sense/wider UK) .... strikes me as one of those "Have you stopped beating your wife" type questions

Spook_ie

Just been thinking about trucks to from EU, say everything went by sea to France, ie. Ireland - Cherbourg then road to Calais, the crossing is going to be approx 18 hours ( assuming that crossing times equate approx to Irish Ferries/Stenna Line times ) and about 5 hours driving time, contrast that to Irish Sea crossing of 3 hours plus 9.5 hours by road to Dover and 1.5 hours Dover to Calais

14 hours against 23 hours

Is 9 hours or so going to have an effect on Irish perishables going to and from the continent? Instinct says no but in reality has anyone done the accurate math?

Spook_ie

Spook_ie wrote: »

Just been thinking about trucks to from EU, say <snipped>

Is 9 hours or so going to have an effect on Irish perishables going to and from the continent? Instinct says no but in reality has anyone done the accurate math?

Quoting my own post for ease of reference

Did just find this
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

Would seem that the truck park on the M25 would be as bad for us in Ireland as well, as well as it might entail truck parks of similar proportions in Dublin and Holyhead.

Peregrinus

trellheim wrote: »

That...is a badly skewed poll ... its only leave voters .

It's a poll of what Leave voters think, Trellheim. That doesn't make it "badly skewed". But it does mean that projecting the results onto the GB population at large is a mistake.

trellheim wrote: »

NI not at peace is a topic that many people under 21 only have second hand experience of (in the broad sense/wider UK) .... strikes me as one of those "Have you stopped beating your wife" type questions

There are not many Leave voters under 21.

Peregrinus

Spook_ie wrote: »

Just been thinking about trucks to from EU, say everything went by sea to France, ie. Ireland - Cherbourg then road to Calais, the crossing is going to be approx 18 hours ( assuming that crossing times equate approx to Irish Ferries/Stenna Line times ) and about 5 hours driving time, contrast that to Irish Sea crossing of 3 hours plus 9.5 hours by road to Dover and 1.5 hours Dover to Calais

14 hours against 23 hours

Is 9 hours or so going to have an effect on Irish perishables going to and from the continent? Instinct says no but in reality has anyone done the accurate math?

Well, two comments:

First, your methodology is a bit off. The reason the UK landbridge route goes through Calais is because it's close to the UK. If you take the goods to Cherbourg, there's no reason to then bring them to Calais before taking them on to their final destination; you just go straight from Cherbourg to the final destination. That may add to the journey time, or it may subtract from the journey time, dependind on where the final destination is but, either way, the time that it would take to drive from Cherbourg to Calais is not a relevant factor (unless the final destination is Calais, of course).

Secondly, time isn't the only factor. There's limited capacity on the Ireland-France ferry route and, while capacity is being increased by the acquisition of new ships, this takes time. Plus, there may be bottlenecks with port handling capacity either at the Irish end or the French end or both.

Spook_ie

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, two comments:

First, your methodology is a bit off. The reason the UK landbridge route goes through Calais is because it's close to the UK. If you take the goods to Cherbourg, there's no reason to then bring them to Calais before taking them on to their final destination; you just go straight from Cherbourg to the final destination. That may add to the journey time, or it may subtract from the journey time, dependind on where the final destination is but, either way, the time that it would take to drive from Cherbourg to Calais is not a relevant factor (unless the final destination is Calais, of course).

Secondly, time isn't the only factor. There's limited capacity on the Ireland-France ferry route and, while capacity is being increased by the acquisition of new ships, this takes time. Plus, there may be bottlenecks with port handling capacity either at the Irish end or the French end or both.

Yes I know the methodology may be basic which is why I deliberately shipped the same theoretical goods from point A to Point B via two different routes, the destinations could just as easily be Dublin to Zeebrugge via land bridge or ship as in the Politico link, which does seem to bear the fact that if the UK is ****ed at Dover then so are we.

Peregrinus

Spook_ie wrote: »

Yes I know the methodology may be basic which is why I deliberately shipped the same theoretical goods from point A to Point B via two different routes, the destinations could just as easily be Dublin to Zeebrugge via land bridge or ship as in the Politico link, which does seem to bear the fact that if the UK is ****ed at Dover then so are we.

Oh, yes. If the UK crashes out Ireland suffers almost as badly as the UK itself does.

First Up

Spook_ie wrote: »

Yes I know the methodology may be basic which is why I deliberately shipped the same theoretical goods from point A to Point B via two different routes, the destinations could just as easily be Dublin to Zeebrugge via land bridge or ship as in the Politico link, which does seem to bear the fact that if the UK is ****ed at Dover then so are we.

Those calculations are meaningless until we know if time for customs and port delays should be included. If there are customs at Holyead, you can add a fair bit as that port is hopelessly inadequate for today's trade volumes. If there are customs at Calais and 13 miles queues getting to Dover - forget it.

Spook_ie

First Up wrote: »

Those calculations are meaningless until we know if time for customs and port delays should be included. If there are customs at Holyead, you can add a fair bit as that port is hopelessly inadequate for today's trade volumes. If there are customs at Calais and 13 miles queues getting to Dover - forget it.

Which looks likely, so we're up **** creek without a paddle.

Peregrinus

Spook_ie wrote: »

Which looks likely, so we're up **** creek without a paddle.

Not quite. The initial impact will be severe but, unlike the UK, we don't have to "fix Brexit" in order to do something about it. Capacity on the sea route may be limited, but it can be increased. Plus, there is already an internationally accepted mechanism for carrying goods in sealed containers through a third country without customs inspection either on entering or leaving the third country, and it's possible that some arrangement can be put in place whereby this can be used to leapfrog the 20-mile queues for customs clearance at Dover.

These are not ideal or cost-free solutions, but they are a lot better than the solutions that will be avaliable to UK-based traders.

Peregrinus

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Brexiters go on harping how Eu/euro will drag Ireland for down due to "inevitable collapse" while dragging us down with their self inflicted economic/political quagmire. Hopefully the EU helps with this external cataclysm

I expect the EU will help in various ways, but it will still be very painful for us.