Brexit discussion thread IV

Thargor

Look at the pathetic amount of likes and retweets on the BBC and CH4 reporters tweets, we give more of a sh1t about this here on Boards than their entire country does, they have been completely brainwashed by their Godawful media.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1014940223422259210

Sounds rather implausible, but if talks collapse, could prove an interim solution (12 months max).

sink

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1014940223422259210

Sounds rather implausible, but if talks collapse, could prove an interim solution (12 months max).

I've been saying this for months. To paraphrase ACD. When you eliminate all that is impossible, whatever remains no matter how implausible must be reality.

The the Brextremist leaders have committed themselves to deeply to a hard Brexit that is politically fatal (read impossible) for them to backtrack. They have no support left in the centre, all their support comes from the europhobic right wing and should they betray them they will be dropped like a hot rock. So they absolutely cannot compromise, no more than a drowning man can compromise as he pulls his would be rescuer under with him.

The EU will not compromise. It's absolute priority is protect the integrity of the single market. A compromised single market would jeopardise the EU itself. It will not change it's internal rules for the benefit of a third party. Maintaining low trade barriers to the UK market is more of a preference than essential.

The DUP will not compromise. Any further detachment of Northern Ireland from Britain damages their absolute priority of maintaining the union. They will burn their own house to the ground before they will consider any separation that risks the union.

With all that considered the political arithmetic leaves May with only two choices. 1. Do nothing and crash out by default. 2. Cobble together whatever coalition she can to pass a SM/CU bill and that means reaching across the aisle and seeking support from the opposition.

The only other possibility is not a choice for Theresa May, that being the collapse of her government and her resignation. It's hard to know how that would play out. The EU may be willing to extend the negotiations to allow time for a new government to form, but it might also see the removal of the UK before European Parliament Elections in 2019 and the new budget in 2020 as preferable.

An Ciarraioch

Fox has apparently been assured by May that the UK will have an independent trade policy after Brexit.

Kermit.de.frog

In tomorrow's London Times

Theresa May tells Brexiteers there can be no free trade deals with America


That's gonna rile a few feathers!

KingNerolives

What if may pulls off a worldie and we are all left red faced for having doubted her iron will resilience?

Inquitus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Fox has apparently been assured by May that the UK will have an independent trade policy after Brexit.

The only way that will happen is with a cliff edge Brexit, which I am beginning to think Parliament will not allow. Cake and Unicorns with warnings aside.

Enzokk

KingNerolives wrote: »

What if may pulls off a worldie and we are all left red faced for having doubted her iron will resilience?

What outcome would leave us blushing? What do you think it would take to make us respect her?

Kermit.de.frog

What was it Theresa May use to say?


Strong and stable?


She is going through all this for a plan that will be dead on arrival in Brussels.

Trasna1

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Is the UK government going to fall because it can't agree a deal that would be rejected by the EU anyway?

If the UK government survives the next few days it will remain in place and deliver a soft Brexit.

However if the brexiteers really believe in the cause then the government will collapse over the weekend. I guess we will see the colour of their money now.

ambro25

JP Morgan has asked some employees to leave London before year end, according to a memo leaked to Bloomberg

Le mémo interne que s’est procuré Bloomberg rend un peu plus tangible les projets de relocalisation des équipes du géant bancaire JPMorgan Chase & Co., en prévision du Brexit. L’institution qui emploie quelque 10.000 personnes à Londres a demandé à plusieurs dizaines de ses employés de se préparer à une relocalisation au sein de l’Union européenne, et ce avant que le Royaume-Uni ne sorte de l’espace commun. Soit d’ici fin mars 2019.

Whatever comes out of today’s session at Chequers, it’s already far too late for whole swathes of U.K.-based sociology-economic ‘engines’.

According to the Article, these in particular are off to Paris, Madrid and Milan.

Nody

Trasna1 wrote: »

If the UK government survives the next few days it will remain in place and deliver a soft Brexit.

However if the brexiteers really believe in the cause then the government will collapse over the weekend. I guess we will see the colour of their money now.

Well apparently few if any Brexiteers are going to resign over it; the reason? EU will block the suggestion for them and they want to be around for the next government.

Several government whips was last night said to be on three verge of resignation over their fury at the PM’s plan.

But allies of Boris Johnson last night predicted he won’t resign as Foreign Secretary even if he loses the colossal fight today.

Boris is thought to have been persuaded that since the EU are likely to shoot down Mrs May’s plan, it is worth him staying on to influence the next government fight over the shape of Brexit, likely to arrive by the Autumn.

From The Sun and seeing what a coward Boris has been on any actual confrontation (see Heathrow issue for example) I'm not surprised he's not resigning.

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In tomorrow's London Times

Theresa May tells Brexiteers there can be no free trade deals with America


That's gonna rile a few feathers!

The UK would lose so much of its identity with a US free trade deal. The set of demands would be obscene especially with the current administration.

Beechwoodspark

Fraser Nelson on RTÉ saying that may is confident she has numbers to back the plan today and if it comes to it, would be ok with resignations.

Boris, Gove etc- it’s make or break time

McGiver

FT claiming a German minister says EU being inflexible in negotiations. Which isn't true. So even FT has to follow the line "oh it's the EU's fault" and make thinly veiled attacks on the EU.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1014971147400736769?s=09

First Up

ambro25 wrote: »

JP Morgan has asked some employees to leave London before year end, according to a memo leaked to Bloomberg

Le mémo interne que s’est procuré Bloomberg rend un peu plus tangible les projets de relocalisation des équipes du géant bancaire JPMorgan Chase & Co., en prévision du Brexit. L’institution qui emploie quelque 10.000 personnes à Londres a demandé à plusieurs dizaines de ses employés de se préparer à une relocalisation au sein de l’Union européenne, et ce avant que le Royaume-Uni ne sorte de l’espace commun. Soit d’ici fin mars 2019.

Whatever comes out of today’s session at Chequers, it’s already far too late for whole swathes of U.K.-based sociology-economic ‘engines’.

According to the Article, these in particular are off to Paris, Madrid and Milan.

Only a handful though.

judeboy101

If that little weasel Gove backs her, she will be able to sell it. Bobo and Davis haven't the clout he seems to wield.

ambro25

First Up wrote: »

Only a handful though.

Numbers of relocated City bankers are irrelevant, a point which most Leavers continually fail to grasp (likewise the fact that Brexit has yet to actually happen).

Their professional activity and combined contributions to the national economy and no.11’s coffers, very much are.

Soft, hard or boiled Brexit, or even no Brexit at all, those tens of relocated bankers -and all the other tens here and hundreds there- represent £Millions upon £Millions’ worth of actual, measurable net loss to the local economy and the Exchequer...and they’re not coming back anytime soon.

Leroy42

Could the EU live with the (leaked still) proposals. Alignment on regulations on goods and Agri means that there would be no hard border, not only in NI but across the whole of the UK. That is a really big win for the EU, basically the status quo.

The possibility is always there for them to move away from alignment as time passes, but with that would come hard borders and nobody is going to want that. And there is nothing to stop any country leaving so its not really much different. From a strictkly Irish POV, putting aside all the other factors, isn't this exactly what we were looking for?

Services seems to be a sticking point. The UK want to diverge and with services being intertwined with goods in many cases this could be a serious competitive advantage to the UK. But the question needs to be whether it is worth the risk of a hard Brexit rather than going for a deal?

The noises coming out of the EU would seem to suggest (and I saw a thread on Macron saying that the EU simply cannot give in to anything as it would only increase the likely breakup of the EU) that they are willing to stick to their guns and its either everything or nothing. But that is easier to say when the UK had nothing on the table.

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

Could the EU live with the (leaked still) proposals. Alignment on regulations on goods and Agri means that there would be no hard border, not only in NI but across the whole of the UK. That is a really big win for the EU, basically the status quo.

Hmm, yeah-but ... is it a status the EU wants to keep "quo" ? As it is, the Brexiteers are bragging about the 5-minute clearance times for freight coming in from China, which we know is/was because the UK wasn't complying with the existing rules.



Now they're (supposedly) saying that they'll voluntarily remain aligned with our rules, and will agree to be punished if they don't, even though they're not obliged to like they were when they broke the rules before. As a gesture of good faith, they'll offer us a technological solution that definitely won't be ready in the the foreseeable future, but if we could just trust them, it'll all work out in the end ...



Well, we'll know by midnight, I suppose. :cool:

LeinsterDub

Leroy42 wrote: »

Could the EU live with the (leaked still) proposals. Alignment on regulations on goods and Agri means that there would be no hard border, not only in NI but across the whole of the UK. That is a really big win for the EU, basically the status quo.

The possibility is always there for them to move away from alignment as time passes, but with that would come hard borders and nobody is going to want that. And there is nothing to stop any country leaving so its not really much different. From a strictkly Irish POV, putting aside all the other factors, isn't this exactly what we were looking for?

Services seems to be a sticking point. The UK want to diverge and with services being intertwined with goods in many cases this could be a serious competitive advantage to the UK. But the question needs to be whether it is worth the risk of a hard Brexit rather than going for a deal?

The noises coming out of the EU would seem to suggest (and I saw a thread on Macron saying that the EU simply cannot give in to anything as it would only increase the likely breakup of the EU) that they are willing to stick to their guns and its either everything or nothing. But that is easier to say when the UK had nothing on the table.

FOM is the sticking point. Or more to the point TM red lines . This checks off the Irish border and maybe the ECJ issue but not FOM

trellheim

They've had their mobiles and apple watches taken off them lol going into the meeting

First Up

ambro25 wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Only a handful though.

Numbers of relocated City bankers are irrelevant, a point which most Leavers continually fail to grasp (likewise the fact that Brexit has yet to actually happen).

Their professional activity and combined contributions to the national economy and no.11’s coffers, very much are.

Soft, hard or boiled Brexit, or even no Brexit at all, those tens of relocated bankers -and all the other tens here and hundreds there- represent £Millions upon £Millions’ worth of actual, measurable net loss to the local economy and the Exchequer...and they’re not coming back anytime soon.

I don't dispute the trend or cumulative affect but I wouldn't make a big deal out of a handful. Companies move more people than that all the time for operational reasons as well as strategic.

First Up

trellheim wrote: »

They've had their mobiles and apple watches taken off them lol going into the meeting

I hope they were let keep their flags; waving those is all the Brexiteers have to offer.

listermint

First Up wrote: »

I don't dispute the trend or cumulative affect but I wouldn't make a big deal out of a handful. Companies move more people than that all the time for operational reasons as well as strategic.

They move strategic people for strategic moves. These are generally senior and the roles follow suit.

There is nothing small about moving senior people moving.

trellheim

Twitter reporting that they've left taxi cards in the chequers foyer for those who can't support TM and they'll have the ministerial cars stripped immediately

( see https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes )


Also it looks like Cameron (!) has got Boris onside.

Leroy42

It really seems like quite a choice for some of them if the reports we are hearing are to be believed.

In essence, Boris, Gove & Davies are basically bing faced with resigning their position or thier principles. They don't appear to have both.

I ma not sure why it has taken May all this time to reach the point where she is demanding collective responsibility from the cabinet, but it seems that she finally has found the gumption to actually do her job.

One would hope that May is one of those that read the reports and has taken on board the likely disaster that could result from Brexit. On the other hand, it seems that this version of a position does not go far enough and will likely be rejected, so is this really nothing but a show of strength from May knowing that Hard Brexit is the outcome no matter what happens.

So do the ministers go into a hard Brexit with May still in charge, or into a hard Brexit with having to undertake 1st a leadership challenge and then a possible leadership contest. The last contest was a disaster really, May basically being the only person left standing at the end.

There was some slight discussion a year or so ago about whether the Irish government would fall over the whole Garda issue. A strong feeling at the time was that Brexit meant we had bigger fish to fry and the parties should focus on the big issues, that a GE would achieve nothing but annoy a lot of people. Surely the UK electorate would have similar feelings, and that would impact on any decision that the Tory MPs make.

trellheim

They need an acceptable position vice a hard brexit.


This means - no matter what it is - collective cabinet responsibility.

ilovesmybrick

trellheim wrote: »

Twitter reporting that they've left taxi cards in the chequers foyer for those who can't support TM and they'll have the ministerial cars stripped immediately

( see https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes )


Also it looks like Cameron (!) has got Boris onside.

It now looks like Boris has Cameron onside https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1015146315007844352 What a farce over a proposal that has already been preemptively rejected.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Could the EU live with the (leaked still) proposals. Alignment on regulations on goods and Agri means that there would be no hard border, not only in NI but across the whole of the UK. That is a really big win for the EU, basically the status quo.

The possibility is always there for them to move away from alignment as time passes, but with that would come hard borders and nobody is going to want that. And there is nothing to stop any country leaving so its not really much different. From a strictkly Irish POV, putting aside all the other factors, isn't this exactly what we were looking for?

Services seems to be a sticking point. The UK want to diverge and with services being intertwined with goods in many cases this could be a serious competitive advantage to the UK. But the question needs to be whether it is worth the risk of a hard Brexit rather than going for a deal?

The noises coming out of the EU would seem to suggest (and I saw a thread on Macron saying that the EU simply cannot give in to anything as it would only increase the likely breakup of the EU) that they are willing to stick to their guns and its either everything or nothing. But that is easier to say when the UK had nothing on the table.

I think he official term for the British proposals is cakeism. The UK wants to pick and choose which parts of the single market is likes, and which parts it diverges from. The EU won't accept that.

flatty

Will people please stop talking about fcuking cake. It adds nothing to the conversation, and has been done to death.
My query is which side the taxi in the driveway was aimed at.
I ignore anything Boris says. He is a coward and, in truth, a blithering idiot disguised as a blithering idiot. He, like Rees mogg, has managed to convince a swathe of people that he is intelligent, when there is actually little to back up this assertion. May, true to form, is now completely cornered, and is finally reacting as she has no choice anymore.
My reading from the recent parliamentary vote was that she managed in private to placate the moderate rebels. She must have fed them something.
Jrm Davies gove and Boris are about to be exposed as cowards I reckon, unwilling to risk resigning despite apparent principle.
We may see, but it's more likely they will cry victory louder than everyone else and trundle on.

Inquitus

So how do we see this one ending up? Any resignations, a leadership challenge, or they just adopt a white paper the EU has no choice but to reject and the can travels a little bit further down what little remains of the road.

Enzokk

flatty wrote: »

Will people please stop talking about fcuking cake. It adds nothing to the conversation, and has been done to death.
My query is which side the taxi in the driveway was aimed at.
I ignore anything Boris says. He is a coward and, in truth, a blithering idiot disguised as a blithering idiot. He, like Rees mogg, has managed to convince a swathe of people that he is intelligent, when there is actually little to back up this assertion. May, true to form, is now completely cornered, and is finally reacting as she has no choice anymore.
My reading from the recent parliamentary vote was that she managed in private to placate the moderate rebels. She must have fed them something.
Jrm Davies gove and Boris are about to be exposed as cowards I reckon, unwilling to risk resigning despite apparent principle.
We may see, but it's more likely they will cry victory louder than everyone else and trundle on.

Don't underestimate him. He may act like a blithering idiot but it allows people to forgive his racist and xenophobic rants as just Boris being Boris. He is calculating and he has calculated a way to the top. Such a person is just as dangerous as an idiot who somehow fluked their way to a position of power.

EdgeCase

May has let this run on for far, far too long and has already damaged the UK economic prospects and image as a stable country at this stage.

She allowed huge, public splits in her cabinet and tolerated all sorts of undermining by various cabinet members and backbenchers in a way that no other PM in modern history would have put up with.

Thatcher would have had heads on pikes months ago!

She needs to show some backbone and leadership skills. Being PM is about driving things forward and being aloof enough to be above internal party political squabbles.

If the numbers aren’t right to maintain a stable government, collapse the damn thing rather than being humiliated by Johnson and Co !

Whatever the dynamic is in the Tory party it also seems that the only way a leader can command respect is with an ability to put overgrown “public” schoolboys back into line and it seems that May is far more about trying to find consensus as if she were in a more civilized political party.
There isn’t a consensus to be found so she should take the helm and point out what is in the national interest and put these guys into line with logical and reasoned argument and a persona that inspires a lot more respect.

It’s not about gender either, it’s about being capable of dominating a bunch of waffling jingoistic types who just want to score tabloid headlines. They tend to respond well to the old school principal approach to leadership and I think that’s where she’s lost control.

The rot set in with Cameron though - a PR man who wanted to be everyone’s friend and allowed these bullies to thrive, papering over the cracks and ultimately facilitating a divisive and badly conducted referendum that he thought he could manage with spin and then legged it when it unraveled and turned into a total mess.

If May wants to keep the country on an even keel, she has to politically obliterate Johnson and Gove and reduce their influence. She’s done nothing, other than being polite so far. We need to see some fire and brimstone!

An Ciarraioch

Tony Connelly covers Barnier's press conference in about two dozen tweets - to summarise:

Border deal must be codified in Withdrawal Agreement, N/S frontier must be invisible for goods, farmers, electricity market. SM is non-negotiable, technical controls and customs conducted at NI ports and airports, unique solution to island of Ireland.

Nody

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly covers Barnier's press conference in about two dozen tweets - to summarise:

Border deal must be codified in Withdrawal Agreement, N/S frontier must be invisible for goods, farmers, electricity market. SM is non-negotiable, technical controls and customs conducted at NI ports and airports, unique solution to island of Ireland.

A.k.a. May's proposal is dead in the water before it's even been launched; exactly as she was told unofficially months ago yet still pushes on with the solution in the hope that EU will change their mind for some reason.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1015165259454275584



I mean this is just .... I've no words ... Brexit in a nutshell , their exit plan is fantasy

keane2097

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

It now looks like Boris has Cameron onside https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1015146315007844352 What a farce over a proposal that has already been preemptively rejected.

I find that tweet very difficult to believe. The part about Cameron being convinced to take pride in being the 'Father of Brexit' by Boris is almost too laughable to laugh at.

Leroy42

Nody wrote: »

A.k.a. May's proposal is dead in the water before it's even been launched; exactly as she was told unofficially months ago yet still pushes on with the solution in the hope that EU will change their mind for some reason.

But TM must know this as well. And the rest of the cabinet, D Davies said as much yesterday.

We had the 'crunch' talks a few months ago where Davies threatened to resign, and the two proposals lasted something like 2 hours before Barnier rubbished them.

So 1 of two thin is happening here.

1) May believes that, despite not meeting the stated requirements laid down by the EU, this proposal will be sufficient to at least postpone A50 or prolong the transition period. She is doing this on the basis that this is really the last option available and is prepared to fall on her sword should the cabinet not follow her lead.
2) and this is what I think is more likely, she fully expects this proposal to be rejected by the EU. She has fully accepted that hard Brexit is the only option available to her and that all of this is simply a 'show of strength' to create to view that the Tories are all joined together. They can they walk away from the EU with No deal but unlike now when people see the whole thing as a mess, this will be painted as the EU rejecting the will of TM despite her pulling the entire cabinet with her.

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Nody wrote: »

A.k.a. May's proposal is dead in the water before it's even been launched; exactly as she was told unofficially months ago yet still pushes on with the solution in the hope that EU will change their mind for some reason.

But TM must know this as well. And the rest of the cabinet, D Davies said as much yesterday.

We had the 'crunch' talks a few months ago where Davies threatened to resign, and the two proposals lasted something like 2 hours before Barnier rubbished them.

So 1 of two thin is happening here.

1) May believes that, despite not meeting the stated requirements laid down by the EU, this proposal will be sufficient to at least postpone A50 or prolong the transition period. She is doing this on the basis that this is really the last option available and is prepared to fall on her sword should the cabinet not follow her lead.
2) and this is what I think is more likely, she fully expects this proposal to be rejected by the EU. She has fully accepted that hard Brexit is the only option available to her and that all of this is simply a 'show of strength' to create to view that the Tories are all joined together. They can they walk away from the EU with No deal but unlike now when people see the whole thing as a mess, this will be painted as the EU rejecting the will of TM despite her pulling the entire cabinet with her.

I fear you are correct.
I don't think it will stand up long term though. The govt, the media, and the BBC in particular will get hosed.

ilovesmybrick

keane2097 wrote: »

I find that tweet very difficult to believe. The part about Cameron being convinced to take pride in being the 'Father of Brexit' by Boris is almost too laughable to laugh at.

I do as well. The current view seems to be that this is Boris putting out spin, but the utter confusion of it all kind of sums the more general confusion/obfuscation/outright lies of the past couple of years.

Inquitus

Apparently "Norway +" is back in the running again!

A majority in the Cabinet and in the Commons has now firmly resolved that it will not be party to an act of gross economic self-harm. That means Britain is ineluctably being drawn towards a form of EEA and customs union membership.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-real-world-is-outside-the-chequers-summit-a3881046.html

CelticRambler

It must be a real sore point for the DUP to know that the future of NI is being decided without them having any part in today's discussion. I wonder if any part of TM's strategy is finding a way to keep her government limping along if/when she cuts NI loose?

Inquitus

CelticRambler wrote: »

It must be a real sore point for the DUP to know that the future of NI is being decided without them having any part in today's discussion. I wonder if any part of TM's strategy is finding a way to keep her government limping along if/when she cuts NI loose?

If they go Norway+ that has no negative impacts on NI's place in the Union, the impact on NI really depends on what they go for I guess, and it seems they really have no clue at this point, with everything from Norway+ to Hard Brexit still on the table.......*sigh*

An Ciarraioch

Inquitus wrote: »

Apparently "Norway +" is back in the running again!



https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-real-world-is-outside-the-chequers-summit-a3881046.html

Suspect that's more Osborne's preference, given Labour's current position, we can but hope, though!

Kristopherus

CelticRambler wrote: »

It must be a real sore point for the DUP to know that the future of NI is being decided without them having any part in today's discussion. I wonder if any part of TM's strategy is finding a way to keep her government limping along if/when she cuts NI loose?

Fcuk them. they are under the impression that they have May by the short & curlies since they agreed to prop her up.

Enzokk

Inquitus wrote: »

If they go Norway+ that has no negative impacts on NI's place in the Union, the impact on NI really depends on what they go for I guess, and it seems they really have no clue at this point, with everything from Norway+ to Hard Brexit still on the table.......*sigh*

But everything we have seen put out by the DUP at the moment is that they are just as much for a hard Brexit as the likes of Gove, JRM and Johnson. It will be interesting to see what actually gets laid by the wayside. Will it be Theresa's red lines? Will it be the DUP? Or will they shoot themselves in the foot and go for a hard Brexit?

McGiver

QT should really be renamed to Delusion Time.

"EU won't let it." - don't think so
"People vote and parliamentary vote conflicting each other." - not really, in case of advisory referendum passed by a narrow margin

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/984814/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Question-Time-BBC-Theresa-May-Conservative-Party

Strazdas

Inquitus wrote: »

Apparently "Norway +" is back in the running again!



https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-real-world-is-outside-the-chequers-summit-a3881046.html

It seems difficult to believe the hard Brexiteers would ever accept this.

But it would also throw up the question as to what on earth the UK is doing leaving the EU. EEA would mean remaining in the Single Market and keeping freedom of movement, which would make the entire referendum and decision to leave the most ridiculous thing ever (and it has already been shown that EEA membership only would leave the UK billions of pounds worse off).

An Ciarraioch

Fair to say Laura Kuenssberg is getting cabin fever, while the wait goes on:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1015243443344420864