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Brexit discussion thread IV

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Comments

  • #4742
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Understood, but Ireland can only veto the final deal, not the withdrawal agreement ie. FTA agreement ?

    The withdrawal agreement would also include a Political declaration by the EU on what is expected moving forward.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4743
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    brickster69 wrote: »
    I was responding to " Well then you cannot mind Ireland vetoing any cozy deal the UK gets if it is not in our best interests."
    I understand " our best interest " meaning Ireland's  interests not the EU as a whole. Maybe i'm mistaken.

    btw your reading of what Leo said as a 'threat' about airspace is not really subscribed to around here. It wasn't a threat.
    Not being funny, what was it then. A fact ?

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4744
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Understood, but Ireland can only veto the final deal, not the withdrawal agreement ie. FTA agreement ?

    The withdrawal agreement would also include a Political declaration by the EU on what is expected moving forward.

    Emm the Withdrawal agreement is the only one being negotiated at the moment. Each Member of the EU 27 has a Veto on the Withdrawal agreement.

    There are no Free Trade Agreement talks at present.

    Nate


  • #4745
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Not being funny, what was it then. A fact ?

    It is a consequence of the UK leaving the legal agreement that allows their Air Carriers to legally fly in other jurisdictions airspace.

    Nate


  • #4746
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Nate--IRL-- wrote: »
    brickster69 wrote: »
    Understood, but Ireland can only veto the final deal, not the withdrawal agreement ie. FTA agreement ?

    The withdrawal agreement would also include a Political declaration by the EU on what is expected moving forward.

    Emm the Withdrawal agreement is the only one being negotiated at the moment. Each Member of the EU 27 has a Veto on the Withdrawal agreement.

    There are no Free Trade Agreement talks at present.

    Nate
    Yes Ireland has a Veto Nate, but it does not mean if Ireland veto that deal that is final does it ?

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • #4747
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,711 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Not being funny, what was it then. A fact ?

    IMO it was a mistake, and it would better to be forgotten about.

    It is no more important than any of the threats dolled out by the UK government, which are told are for the domestic audience.

    IMO, Leo was getting pretty exasperated with the carry on from the UK. Remember, he thought they had all this already agreed with TM back in December and now they are back arguing over fishing rights!


  • #4748
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Yes Ireland has a Veto Nate, but it does not mean if Ireland veto that deal that is final does it ?

    I'd expect a Veto would be followed by a negotiation among the EU 27 to come up with a new common position.

    A better question would be, in such a case, could a new common position be found before April 1st 2019?

    However, I don't expect a Veto.

    Nate


  • #4749
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Nate--IRL-- wrote: »
    brickster69 wrote: »
    Yes Ireland has a Veto Nate, but it does not mean if Ireland veto that deal that is final does it ?

    I'd expect a Veto would be followed by a negotiation among the EU 27 to come up with a new common position.

    A better question would be, in such a case, could a new common position be found before April 1st 2019?

    However, I don't expect a Veto.

    Nate
    You mean you don't know if Ireland's veto means anything or not on the withdrawal agreement ?

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4750
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    brickster69 wrote: »
    You mean you don't know if Ireland's veto means anything or not on the withdrawal agreement ?

    A Veto is a Veto. What is so hard to understand? If no Common position among the EU27 is found after such a veto - the Withdrawal agreement is dead.

    Nate


  • #4751
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    But one veto means nothing Nate, do you know that ? One country cannot sink the withdrawal agreement.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • #4752
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,711 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    brickster69 wrote: »
    But one veto means nothing Nate, do you know that ? One country cannot sink the withdrawal agreement.

    As far as I know that is exactly the position. Any country could veto it.

    The focus has been on Ireland due to the NI issue, but Spain could just as easily veto it due to Gibraltar.

    That is why the attempt by TM and her ministers is such a long shot. They have to get France etc to agree with them, and then get France etc to talk the others into agreeing it.

    It is why I can't understand why they haven't tried to work more closely with the Irish on this. Trying to go above Barnier is obviously an attempt to get around such of the conditions, the most contentious of which appears to be NI.

    Not a good look when TM is running off to Austria and France rather than talking to Leo.


  • #4753
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    I stand corrected, the withdrawal agreement will pass with a Qualified majority in the Council, with the European Parliament having a Veto.

    It is the Trade Deal afterwards that Vetos apply to.

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRS_BRI(2016)577971_EN.pdf
    It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
    The Council decides to conclude the agreement with a 'super qualified majority', without the participation of the state concerned. The qualified majority is defined in this
    case as at least 72% of the members of the Council, comprising at least 65% of the
    population of the Member States (without the withdrawing state) (Article 238(3)b TFEU).

    Nate


  • #4754
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    You learn something every day Nate eh ?

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4755
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    So Irelands vote = less than 1%

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4756
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,711 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    But in effect, if say Ireland are unhappy with the agreement, they will simply veto the trade deal, which is actually the important part for the UK.


  • #4757
    Nate--IRL--
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭Nate--IRL--


    Well 1/27 really.

    Nate


  • #4758
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    But in effect, if say Ireland are unhappy with the agreement, they will simply veto the trade deal, which is actually the important part for the UK.
    Leroy, that is up to Ireland. If you do not want to trade then don't. Simple !

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4759
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Nate--IRL-- wrote: »
    Well 1/27 really.

    Nate
    Check again Nate

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4760
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,309 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Enough of the one liners please.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #4761
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Enough of the one liners please.
    Apologies sorry. Just trying to give the facts.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • #4762
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,711 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    brickster69 wrote: »
    Leroy, that is up to Ireland. If you do not want to trade then don't. Simple !

    Well what does the UK want out of this? A trade deal.

    So they can use the majority to get the agreement but it means nothing since they won't get much of a trade deal if countries feel they have been bullied into an agreement.

    And just as the UK is so fond of telling people, Ireland can easily trade with the UK under WTO, with apparently no issues or costs whatsoever.


  • #4763
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    brickster69 wrote: »
    You mean you don't know if Ireland's veto means anything or not on the withdrawal agreement ?

    Barnier has already reiterated that unless the backstop is agreed, the withdrawal agreement cannot be finalised, and thus there would be no transition period.


  • #4764
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,732 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    brickster69 wrote: »
    Leroy, that is up to Ireland. If you do not want to trade then don't. Simple !

    Well what does the UK want out of this?  A trade deal.

    So they can use the majority to get the agreement but it means nothing since they won't get much of a trade deal if countries feel they have been bullied into an agreement.

    And just as the UK is so fond of telling people, Ireland can easily trade with the UK under WTO, with apparently no issues or costs whatsoever.
    Leroy, i mean this honestly. I do not think anyone in the UK has a problem with the Irish. I can understand deep rooted hostility for past events that happened. We have similar things with Germany for obvious reasons, but come on !
    The really unfortunate thing is under WTO tariffs Ireland would be hit hardest because all the high tariffs are on goods you export to the UK. No good outcome for anyone at the end of the day. 
    https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/eu-imports-bought-by-uk-households-and-potential-tariffs#nogo

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #4765
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,711 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Oh, its got nothing to do with who doesn't like whom, this is a negotiation and both sides are trying to do the best for themselves.

    But, since TM already made an agreement, based on which Ireland accepted that the talks could proceed, I just don't see the value of going above Ireland head.

    I get the practicalities of it, French have a much stronger voice than we do, but since Ireland managed to get the EU to agree that NI border was a significant issue, it appears that the UK is simply hoping that Ireland will drop it.

    Thats what doesn't make sense to me


  • #4766
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    IMO it was a mistake, and it would better to be forgotten about.

    It is no more important than any of the threats dolled out by the UK government, which are told are for the domestic audience.

    IMO, Leo was getting pretty exasperated with the carry on from the UK. Remember, he thought they had all this already agreed with TM back in December and now they are back arguing over fishing rights!

    With the UK withdrawing ( seperately) from the fishing rights why are they talking about fish?

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/uks-withdrawal-from-fishing-deal-is-unwelcome-and-unhelpful-says-government-35886609.html


  • #4767
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Oh, its got nothing to do with who doesn't like whom, this is a negotiation and both sides are trying to do the best for themselves.

    But, since TM already made an agreement, based on which Ireland accepted that the talks could proceed, I just don't see the value of going above Ireland head.

    I get the practicalities of it, French have a much stronger voice than we do, but since Ireland managed to get the EU to agree that NI border was a significant issue, it appears that the UK is simply hoping that Ireland will drop it.

    Thats what doesn't make sense to me

    They've been desperately pushing that for months though. It's like they just can't believe the EU would support one of their members over a country that is leaving as belligerently as possible.


  • #4768
    Harika
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,479 ✭✭✭Harika


    Rhineshark wrote: »
    They've been desperately pushing that for months though. It's like they just can't believe the EU would support one of their members over a country that is leaving as belligerently as possible.

    Same here, I would not believe if 26 countries would stab Ireland in the back if there were legitimate concerns by Ireland.
    First all small countries would see this as precedent against them and in future they could be outvoted
    Second irexit might gain traction by that and Brexit would really be the beginning of the end


  • #4769
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    Harika wrote: »
    Same here, I would not believe if 26 countries would stab Ireland in the back if there were legitimate concerns by Ireland.
    First all small countries would see this as precedent against them and in future they could be outvoted
    Second irexit might gain traction by that and Brexit would really be the beginning of the end

    Precisely - even if you take the most cynical (but vaguely realistic non-lizard people theory) view, it quite simply makes no sense to abandon Ireland. Most countries in the EU are "small"; they are all watching to see if a fellow small nation is left to the mercies of a bigger somewhat aggressive one. If our fellow countries wouldn't back up another against the UK, the countries near Russia would be a lot more worried.

    They've all accepted our fears as legit - although we need to back up bigger countries too regarding Dover-Calais; the French have a serious issue brewing there too. I'm a bit less sympathetic regarding Spain/Gibraltar but it's a legit bit of aggro for Spain - as well as being rather convenient for them given they've wanted Gibraltar back for a couple of centuries. Mind you, not heard much out of the new government about it. Rajoy would be all over it, I suspect.


  • #4770
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,948 ✭✭✭trellheim


    So May visited Macron at his holiday home( you can imagine the "I'm on me sodding holidays whats she want NOW" ).. The pic of them is doing the rounds on twitter with commentary heres some of it

    li9Bfca.png


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  • #4771
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    What Ireland can't veto is a crash out Brexit resulting in a hard border and economic damage for Ireland. All that is required for a crash out Brexit is for Barnier's team and the UK to fail to reach agreement by the deadline.


This discussion has been closed.
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