Brexit discussion thread IV

Leroy42

Leaks of the White paper according to the Express

1) A commitment to a “single standards model” for goods which would Britain from adopting any competing national standards, which critics fear will jeopardise any future trade deal with the United States.
Theresa MayGETTY

2) A legal agreement to “ongoing harmonisation with the EU, including agrifoods”.

3) A “common rulebook” with the EU for all goods.

4) A pledge that British courts will follow European Court of Justice rulings “where relevant”.

A leaked extract reads: “We would make a continued commitment to the single standards model for goods so that where there is an agreed European harmonised standard, the UK could not put forward any competing national standards.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/984876/brexit-white-paper-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-news-what-is-in-the-white-paper

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Leaks of the White paper according to the Express

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/984876/brexit-white-paper-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-news-what-is-in-the-white-paper

Which begs the question, how will Theresa May uphold her PMQs statements of the UK leaving the single market, the customs union and the UK being able to make their own trade deals?

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

Which begs the question, how will Theresa May uphold her PMQs statements of the UK leaving the single market, the customs union and the UK being able to make their own trade deals?

PMQ's is a farce. She will have much bigger problems to contend with given that the costly Tory party unity is about to be sundered.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

Leaks of the White paper according to the Express

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/984876/brexit-white-paper-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-news-what-is-in-the-white-paper

Let me sum up EU's response based on the feedback which has been given for the last two years (I'm guessing EU is at this stage running out of ways to say no since UK simply don't appear to hear it and hence has retorted to pictures instead to put it at a level the UK government might get it)...



1) Breach of the four rights (only goods)
2) Breach of governance (UK following only if they see it fit)
3) Breach of customs handling (no third party to handle EU customs)

I mean seriously; why bust a nut over such a non go proposal in the first place?

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

Which begs the question, how will Theresa May uphold her PMQs statements of the UK leaving the single market, the customs union and the UK being able to make their own trade deals?

It is very strange. She knew what this white paper consisted off at the time, yet gave such a definitive statement anyway. Why not stick to "Brexit means Brexit" for another few days.

It shows that at least someone in the government has finally grasped the seriousness of the situation. Read a tweet earlier basically saying that the Brexiteers have no option but to accept as everything points to Brexit being a disaster, they have spent the last 4 years talking in hopes and wants and sovereign this and control that, but now they are faced with an actual decision, with actual facts of what, in real practical terms, it actually means.

But will it make any difference? No, the EU is not going to give up on FoM or allow the UK to cherry pick on services.

So now that she has moved this far, does she have the gumption to move all the way back. There is no practical argument for the Norway model. On its own its ok, but going to that from full membership is crazy, it keeps all the things they don't like and removes the things they do!

She should call the Brexiteers bluff. It is this, and if rejected cancel A50. The only other option is hard Brexit which goes against the GFA and as such should be put to vote by the public.

joeysoap

If accepted wouldn’t Switzerland and Norway look for the same? In fact wouldn’t a few others think ‘ that’s not bad’. Maybe we should leave and look for the same deal.

It’s better than I thought but obviously slanted in favour of a ‘business as usual’ but we’re still out.

An Ciarraioch

Peston offers his take on events, without actually telling us anything new:

https://facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2096472700677464/

Nody

joeysoap wrote: »

If accepted wouldn’t Switzerland and Norway look for the same? In fact wouldn’t a few others think ‘ that’s not bad’. Maybe we should leave and look for the same deal.

They would and it's a stated reason why Swiss are pissed atm because they are waiting for Brexit to finish so they can negotiate a deal on services (which is on hold).

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1015272105217351680

Water John

Chris Patten seems to believe it will up as a Norway - and not a +.

judeboy101

Did i hear barnier right on 6one? UK have nothing to fear from E/W border? Surely that's a softening on EU stance on backstop?.

Inquitus

judeboy101 wrote: »

Did i hear barnier right on 6one? UK have nothing to fear from E/W border? Surely that's a softening on EU stance on backstop?.

No that's a re-affirmation that the border can exist in the Irish sea, no?

An Ciarraioch

From another forum:

May's plan has been leaked in full:

Single market - Full alignment for goods via Treaty with nuclear clause.

No services in hope she can avoid FoM.

Customs union to be put in place after implementation period, officially a backstop to stay in place until border technology can facilitate a max fax setup (likely to be never). This needs to be signed off as ready by UK and EU.

ECJ jurisdiction for all areas covered, but via an arbitration tribunal of ECJ and Supreme Court judges.

Reported by Times (paywall) - ends.

An Ciarraioch

Inquitus wrote: »

No that's a re-affirmation that the border can exist in the Irish sea, no?

Yes - Tony Connelly clarified checks would occur at NI ports and airports.

judeboy101

Inquitus wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

Did i hear barnier right on 6one? UK have nothing to fear from E/W border? Surely that's a softening on EU stance on backstop?.

No that's a re-affirmation that the border can exist in the Irish sea, no?

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

From another forum:

May's plan has been leaked in full:

Single market - Full alignment for goods via Treaty with nuclear clause.

No services in hope she can avoid FoM.

Customs union to be put in place after implementation period, officially a backstop to stay in place until border technology can facilitate a max fax setup (likely to be never). This needs to be signed off as ready by UK and EU.

ECJ jurisdiction for all areas covered, but via an arbitration tribunal of ECJ and Supreme Court judges.

Reported by Times (paywall) - ends.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

From another forum:

May's plan has been leaked in full:

Single market - Full alignment for goods via Treaty with nuclear clause.

No services in hope she can avoid FoM.

Customs union to be put in place after implementation period, officially a backstop to stay in place until border technology can facilitate a max fax setup (likely to be never). This needs to be signed off as ready by UK and EU.

ECJ jurisdiction for all areas covered, but via an arbitration tribunal of ECJ and Supreme Court judges.

Reported by Times (paywall) - ends.

If the EU accept services opt out how the hell can it stand over the 4 freedoms. Ejc has to share power with British judges? And they have the cheek to drag Poland through the courts for judical retirement ages.

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

Did i hear barnier right on 6one? UK have nothing to fear from E/W border? Surely that's a softening on EU stance on backstop?.

You're thinking of N/S border

judeboy101

lawred2 wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

Did i hear barnier right on 6one? UK have nothing to fear from E/W border? Surely that's a softening on EU stance on backstop?.

You're thinking of N/S border

No he said backstop, which to me means ni - UK , so e/w

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

No he said backstop, which to me means ni - UK , so e/w

Yes, but the UK doesn't have to fear the East West border between NI and the UK. The backstop was supposed to prevent a border between Ireland and NI but the DUP intervened, so it seems like he is saying it is easier to have a E/W border to protect their red lines.

An Ciarraioch

judeboy101 wrote: »

No he said backstop, which to me means ni - UK , so e/w

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1015198999131893760

Capt'n Midnight

From YLYL

Like I keep posting Max-Fac isn't technically possible. Once you accept that then it's place in any negotiations is moot. As is the credibility of any one suggesting it in spite of all the evidence of similar projects



It's like trying to sell a car that doesn't have an NCT / DOT and won't get one without lots of time and money. And it's not a classic car or anything special either. This isn't Pimp my Ride, it's Barryboys / Skanger me Banger with a blank cheque.


Max Fac would cost UK industry about £20Bn a year for nothing tangible and that's if it's delivered on time and on budget. And given that only two out of 133 big government projects are on track, and neither are related to customs or Brexit that's not likely.


Also isn't a good chunk of that £20Bn on paperwork still going to be wasted every year if they go for customs aligment instead of customs union ?

Infini

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1015272105217351680

A second referendum should happen both to undo this mess and the leave side should be hammered on their total stupidity and the fact that they CHEATED in the first one.

I honestly think this the only way to truly end this because the only other option is an acrimonious crash that will ultimately tear the UK apart and plenty of them over there know this.

FrancieBrady

Infini wrote: »

A second referendum should happen both to undo this mess and the leave side should be hammered on their total stupidity and the fact that they CHEATED in the first one.

I honestly think this the only way to truly end this because the only other option is an acrimonious crash that will ultimately tear the UK apart and plenty of them over there know this.

Last night's This Week programme on the BBC was the first time I felt an air of realism from the host and the guests. Even Portillo seemed to grasp the muddled crisis the whole thing is in.

flutered

First Up wrote: »

I don't dispute the trend or cumulative affect but I wouldn't make a big deal out of a handful. Companies move more people than that all the time for operational reasons as well as strategic.

i have read on overclockers, that the head of merril lynch is on 5m a year, with 2m of that going to no 11, muntiply that a few times, then add on the folks under the top dogs, thats serious tax revenue lost if the figures are correct

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1015302540110565383

Nate--IRL--

flutered wrote: »

i have read on overclockers...

Hah, you lurk there too? The Brexiteers have been awfully quiet of late there.



Nate

An Ciarraioch

All will be revealed in 54 minutes, apparently.

Inquitus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

All will be revealed in 54 minutes, apparently.

Seems that way, we'll see in 42 minutes I guess!

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1015304065910231045

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1015302540110565383

May has won the day in the cabinet. A Pyrrhic victory?

Inquitus

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1015324539335725059

Read the agreement there, it won't fly with the EU, its Cherry Picked Unicorns on a Cake.

Trasna1

There's lots on the statement the EU can work with but you can are few obvious issues the EU will have with the result.single market only for goods and not quite freedom of movement. Customs partnership gets reheated again and no ECJ oversight.

Either the brexiteers don't believe in the cause anymore or they believe the EU will shoot this down and do the dirty work for them. Although it says Britain will have it's open independent trade policy, it will be highly constrained.

listermint

Why would any brexiteers feel isolated when they are aware it flies in the face of EU rules.

Won't fly. Crash out.

Sam Russell

Inquitus wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1015324539335725059

Read the agreement there, it won't fly with the EU, its Cherry Picked Unicorns on a Cake.

But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

Remain wins.

Nody

Inquitus wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1015324539335725059

Read the agreement there, it won't fly with the EU, its Cherry Picked Unicorns on a Cake.

Finally picking a fight only to come out with a document EU said two years ago will not be allowed; Go UK!

Inquitus

Sam Russell wrote: »

But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

Remain wins.

Granted its a huge climb down and the beginnings of the path to a viable soft Brexit, but a lot in there will never fly with the EU.

briany

Sam Russell wrote: »

But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

Remain wins.

Just phrasing the question like that is going to make hardcore Brexiteers incandescent with rage. If they don't like the deal, then it's just a question of 'Sh*t or sh*ttier?' to them. They'll be wanting their 'No deal - Crash out' option.

First Up

Sam Russell wrote: »

[QUO

But it is a step towards a soft Brexit, with the option for including services and FOM. Then they have 'Brexit in name only' and 'why bother'.

They then have 'Let us put it to the people - Accept offer or remain.

Remain wins.

Accept offer or remain is not an option. The choice is accept offer or crash out.

Nody

Here's a brief comment on the statement broken down from my perspective based on EU's position; pretty much every bullet point has Unicorn and fairy dust sprinkled on them...

Point 3 - Cheery picking; you can't pick which of the 4 freedoms to allow
Point 4a - Diversion from the single market rules & no oversight
Point 4b - EU does not do reciprocal deals for a good reason nor does EU allow UK to keep lower requirements when EU raises the bar as you propose
Point 4c - Diverging from EU court control & ignoring court rulings while remaining in the single market
Point 4d - EU already stated no third party state will ever be allowed to collect customs on their behalf yet that is exactly UK's proposal
Point 5 - No; the agreement does not resolve the "Withdrawal Agreement issues"
Point 6a - Nice how they skipped out the minor part about fishing policy which directly ties into to being allowed to export fish etc. as a requirement for alignment; once again showing complete lack of understanding of EU law
Point 6b - Trying to sneak in UK being allowed to sell services with a diverging regime and EU should be happy about it
Point 6c - UK issue; EU don't care
Point 6d - Which flies directly against your claim to want a common set of laws for single market with EU by ignoring EU law that require the fishing policy to be approved by EU for any third party country for imports
Point 6e - You can't be in the single market and have your own trade policy
Point 6f - Nice attempt to try to state that UK can do what ever they want but we will not, trust us, because you might remove some access if we do
Point 6g - Flies against the single market once again; EU courts has to be the overall arbitrator
Point 6h - Ending free movement and setting your own whims on letting people in
Point 6i - Only to turn around and ask EU to implement special rules to let UK citizens to continue travel as before
Point 6j - Stop paying anything to EU for having access to the single market; that one will go down swell I'm sure
Point 6k - Oh so UK should have "operational capabilities" and "suitable arrangements to work with EU if required"; so EU should be at UK's call as needed but not the other way around

Honestly it's so dripped in faery dust and unicorn blood I wonder if the author was either a) high on LSD/cocaine or b) has not read any discussions or comments from EU for the last three years because pretty much every single point has already been thrown out by EU to date (exception being one around internal lines in UK which EU don't care about).

Thargor

Look at the comments here, this is going to be a forest fire by Monday morning:

https://order-order.com/2018/07/06/cabinet-backs-softest-brexit/

And thats the unicorn deal they have no hope of getting!

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

Accept offer or remain is not an option. The choice is accept offer or crash out.

Agreed, but crash out is not an option for any sane person.

However, that supposes they are sane.

A crash out will destroy the car industry in Britain, and the aerospace industry, and most multinational industries.

Will not affect those who had the foresight to plan ahead, like Nigel Lawson getting his French residency, or JRM moving his operation to Dublin, or Farage making sure his kids have German passports.

Will GBP rise or fall on this 'agreement'?

Itssoeasy

That's poor enough for nearly a year and a half into a two year process. Have the DUP been consulted yet ?

flatty

It's a start though.

Nody

flatty wrote: »

It's a start though.

No; a start would actually contain any single element EU could actually approve. Based on their document there is not a single point EU can actually agree to because it's all cherry picking rules allowing UK to play by their own rules, do their own thing and not being under any EU jurisdiction while selling into the single market.

First Up

Sam Russell wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Accept offer or remain is not an option. The choice is accept offer or crash out.

Agreed, but crash out is not an option for any sane person.

It is the only option other than accept what the EU offers them. The leave next May. End of.

Kermit.de.frog

Where would this leave the border?

Barnier yesterday again saying it should be in Irish sea.

Capt'n Midnight

So two years after the referendum people will find out what they were voting for ?

Or at least what the UK govt's starting point for is for the negotiations.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44747444

The main details of the "Chequers statement" are as follows:

...
The UK will be able to control its own tariffs and develop an independent trade policy

The jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice will end but the UK will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force.

Turkey doesn't get to develop an independent trade policy in most areas so the UK , must get lesser access.
So it's Canada.

ECJ / EHCR are red lines for May too, so lots of little things fall apart too.
So it's not Canada plus plus

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Where would this leave the border?

Barnier yesterday again saying it should be in Irish sea.

Their aim is that the FCA and FTA would essentially be rebranded SMCU arrangements, making the backstop redundant, but the restrictions on services and FoM drive a cart and horses through EU rules.

An Ciarraioch

I see Farage's happy!

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1015334183068192768

zapitastas

flatty wrote: »

It's a start though.

Would have been a start two years ago. Now is just too little too late. Has to be the worst organised negotiations from a state

flatty

Nody wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

It's a start though.

No; a start would actually contain any single element EU could actually approve. Based on their document there is not a single point EU can actually agree to because it's all cherry picking rules allowing UK to play by their own rules, do their own thing and not being under any EU jurisdiction while selling into the single market.

You need to understand the UK domestic temperature. It is a start. Your points are all correct, I didn't argue otherwise, but there are definite signs that the politicians are finally waking up to brexit. I'd argue that it is indeed a start, and the EU should try not to publicly deride it. Its an opening gambit at long long last.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Where would this leave the border?

Barnier yesterday again saying it should be in Irish sea.

Realistically the only WORKABLE option is to have the border in the Irish Sea. Checks at ports and airports are the only manageble solution. Absolutely no chance of it working on a windy 500mile border. Our own diplomats would have already well briefed the EU on its history and how porous it is. Its just not realistic to even bother trying to enforce any border in Ireland no matter how much the DUP whinges. It's been proven to be a collossal and unworkable failure in the past as its design is too erratic. To even HAVE a workable border would mean the UK would have to cede significant territory to the republic to straigten it out and even at that it would face massive local opposition. I think realistically the only way they could walk out the way they like to, would be to cede NI to the Republic. Would be the only way for them to eliminate the border issue as then The UK would only be their island and not ours.